1986 - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 14, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 14, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14 : CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
TITLE:
-7e-,,f
DATE: /L/ j~2CG / L9 7
REQUESTOR: A W-10, AD((2 rms
GI M #: 2-061LL
bS'T . ' ? A
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
DATE
2
DOC N0 G-! f
OIR
P $ PD
1986 - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT*
Summary
The level of international terrorist activity probably ran at about the
same level in 1986 as in the preceding year, according to our preliminary
tally. Analysis based on that early reading indicates that several
interesting developments occurred.
o In 1986 state supported terrorist activity accounted for less than
5 percent of all international terrorist activity. In 1985 it had
represented about 12 percent of international attacks.
o Terrorist incidents of Middle East origin in Western Europe may
have declined by as much as 70 percent -- after sharp increases in
1984 and 1985.
o Total casualties (killed and wounded) from international terrorist
activity decreased slightly in 1986, but the number of killed
dropped almost 40 percent.
o Total US casualties in 1986 fell almost 43 percent and US killed
about 75 percent, but attacks against US interests jumped,
approaching 1982/83 levels. Western Europe remained the most
* Data used in this assessment are preliminary and incomplete. We fully
expect the numbers to change. We believe, however, that the revised
numbers will point to the same statistical trends our preliminary analysis
has highlighted.
GI M 8?- 200/4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
dangerous area for US.citizens, accounting for two-thirds of US
casualties, although Latin America was the scene of most anti-US
attacks -- many low-level bombings that caused no casualties.
o The Middle East was still the favorite venue for terrorist
attacks, accounting for about half the incidents recorded in 1986
-- up about 5 percent from 1985. Total Middle Eastern related
terrorist activity dropped, however, from about 60 percent in
1985, to about 50 percent in 1986.
o Latin America replaced Western Europe as the second most popular
regional venue on the terrorist hit list; attacks in Latin America
rose almost 21 percent in 1986. Attacks in Western Europe fell
almost 40 percent. Asia, where international terrorism remains at
a relatively low level, nevertheless saw an increase of 60 percent
in incidents.
International Terrorism -- 1986: A Preliminary Recap
So far, we have recorded almost 725 incidents in 1986, down from last
year's 782. incidents. After all incidents have been recorded and checked,
however, we expect the total for 1986 to rise and approach the 1985 level.
The geographical distribution pattern parallels that of 1985, with one
exception; Latin America replaced Western Europe as the second most popular
venue for attacks following the Middle East.
CSI rA 81- 2.0o1`>f
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
Types and nationalities of targets remained generally the same, with
private citizens and businesses of over 80 countries heading the list. As
in 1985, Israeli and US interests were the terrorists' favorite targets;
over 40 percent of the incidents in 1986 involved US or Israeli interests.
French interests experienced the sharpest rise in attacks -- up 65
percent over 1985 -- at least in part the result of two lethal terrorist
campaigns carried out by the Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction (LARF) in
February/March and September 1986.
Attacks against businesses declined slightly overall, as did attacks
against government and military targets. Attacks against diplomats,
however, increased slightly.
Terrorists continued to rely on the time worn and proven techniques of
bombings, armed attacks, arson and kidnapings; only arson attacks increased
in 1986. Terrorist skyjackings fell from 12 in 1985 to 1 in 1986.
Terrorist activity in 1986 caused almost 2,000 casualties -- 495
killed, 1,492 wounded -- down only marginally from the 2,042 recorded in
1985. Citizens of France, Israel, Syria and the US together accounted for
almost 55 percent of the total casualties. The large number of Syrian
casualties in 1986 may have been the result of retaliatory attacks by
Palestinians and Christians fighting Syrian-backed militias in the Lebanese
camp wars, and non-Syrian members of the Muslim Brotherhood striking back
after the 1982 Syrian crackdown.
GI )A 61-2001Lf
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO01 14ROO0404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
Terrorism remained indiscriminate and random, with a large number of
attacks still occurring in public places. Attacks against petroleum
facilities increased -- particularly in Colombia -- along with attacks
against vehicles.
State Support: Biding Their Time
In 1985, approximately 12 percent of the international terrorist
incidents were linked to state sponsors -- primarily Syria, Libya or Iran.
In 1986, state supported terrorism accounted for less than 5 percent of all
international terrorist incidents. Nevertheless, state-sponsored
terrorists were responsible for some of the most spectacular attacks, and
those with the greatest political fallout.
o Evidence of Libyan culpability in the bombing of the La Belle
Disco in West Berlin caused the United States to launch
retaliatory airstrikes against Libya.
o Syrian complicity in the bombing of the German-Arab friendship
building in West Germany prompted West Germany to recall its
Ambassador from Damascus.
o Syrian involvement in the attempted bombing of an El Al airliner
at London's Heathrow airport led the UK to break relations with
Damascus and to press the European Community to impose economic
sanctions against Syria.
6l M 87-2-0014
'u T r,..n/Ii AR-n
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
State sponsors also may have assisted the terrorists responsible for
the bloody attempted hijacking of a Pan Am flight at Karachi airport, the
vicious attack that killed 22 in a synagogue in Istanbul and the attack on
the British base at Akrotiti, Cyprus.
The apparent falloff in state supported incidents, may in part reflect
our inability to attribute to any perpetrator responsibili ty for more than
half the terrorist incidents in the Middle East. Many of these incidents
may have been the work of state agents or their surrogate groups.
Perhaps ever more important was the response to the unprecedented
military, diplomatic and economic retaliatory measures taken by the United
States and West European countries last year. Key state sponsors -- Syria
and Libya in particular -- undoubtedly decided to curtail their terrorist
activities and those of their surrogates, at least for the near term.
Moreover, they almost certainly enhanced their attempts to keep their hands
hidden, making it increasingly more difficult for us to trace terrorist
incidents directly back to state supporters.
Cal f1 S1-2C0/'#
ly MU&g4 1987
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
Middle East Spillover: Down But Not Out?
Terrorist incidents of Middle Eastern origin in Western Europe dropped
drastically in 1986, reversing a five-year trend. The 22 incidents so far
recorded for 1986 represent an almost 70 percent drop from 1985's record
number of 74 incidents. Although Middle Eastern terrorist activity in
Western Europe was down significantly in 1986, some 42 people were killed
and 400 wounded as a result of those spillover incidents a much higher kill
ratio per incident than in 1985. On average, the 22 incidents in 1986
produced about 200 casualties per incident, whereas in 1985 the 74
incidents produced fewer than 90 casualties per incident.
The Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction (LARF) was the most active of
the Middle Eastern groups in Europe in 1986, accounting for over one-fourth
of the incidents. Fourteen of the incidents were bombings, many carried
out by LARF in France. The spectacular wave of bombings last spring and
fall rocked Paris as LARF members attempted to pressure the Chirac
government into releasing their jailed leader George Abdallah.
The sharp reduction in Middle Eastern terrorism in Europe may reflect
the overall drop in state supported incidents, improved European security
measures, and the reduced support from several European indigenous
terrorist groups to Middle Eastern groups they may previously have
assisted.
GI Al 8 ~ - 2,0014
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
Anti-US Activity
The United States again was a prominent target of terrorists in 1986.
Fully one-fourth of the international terrorist incidents recorded in 1986
involved US interests -- up from 22 percent in 1985. Although US
casualties were down 40 percent in 1986, the number of anti-US incidents
rose from 170 in 1985 to about 190 in 1986. Roughly half of the anti-US
attacks occurred in Latin America -- primarily Chile, Colombia, and Peru
but two-thirds of the casualties were a result of incidents in Western
Europe. Nearly 40 percent of the anti-US attacks in 1986 were against US
business interests.
Regional Capsules
Middle East
International terrorism in the Middle East continued at about the same
level as in 1985 -- around 360 incidents. The majority of incidents were
unclaimed, or responsibility was unclear. The Abu Nidal Group, the
Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia, Fatah, and Hizballah
were the principal culprits for those incidents whose perpetrator we could
pinpoint. Two trends -- with implications for the efficacy of
counterterrorist programs -- became evident: increased freelancing by
terrorist mercenaries or groups, and fewer, but more sophisticated, and
indiscriminate attacks.
GI M 8? - Zoo 144
INJ1,nu"1981
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
. a ,
The hostage situation continued to be one of the major stories in 1986,
with the release of some American and French hostages followed by the
taking and holding of new hostages. Violence in Lebanon escalated as
various militia groups battled for control of the country. Hizballah, Amal
and various Palestinian factions, backed variously by Syria, Iran and Libya
competed for influence in Lebanon. The return of the PLO to Lebanon, and
the increasing power of Hizballah probably will have the greatest impact on
the course of terrorism in 1987.
Western Europe
International terrorist incidents in Western Europe declined
significantly in 1986 -- almost 40 percent. Most of the activity occurred
in Spain, France and West Germany. The Basque separatist group, ETA,
carried out 22 attacks in 1986, slightly more than in 1985. The Red Army
Faction and the Revolutionary Cells in West Germany together staged 27
attacks, including the assassination of an important German industrialist.
In France, the Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction and Action Directe
carried out a number of attacks, mostly bombings, contributing to a 65
percent increase in attacks there compared with 1985.
Terrorist activity in Portugal, Belgium and Italy was almost
negligible. The Portugese FP-25 carried out two attacks in 1986 compared
to 10 in 1985. The Belgian CCC staged six attacks in 1985, but were
unheard from in 1986. Italy's Red Brigades surfaced long enough to carry
G1 Al 87- Zooly
/4 7 n ua 2U RAI
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
out one assassination, and attempt another -- a far cry from its more heady
days. There was, however, an increase in Kurdish Worker Party (PKK)
violence -- from two incidents in 1985 to six in 1986 -- as the group
continued to eliminate and intimidate its rivals for leadership of the
Kurdish movement in Europe.
Latin America
In 1986, Latin America surpassed Western Europe to become the second
most popular regional venue for international terrorist attacks. Most of
the activity was centered in Colombia, Peru and Chile. In Colombia, the
National Liberation Army (ELN) flexed its muscles as the premier terrorist
group, carrying out 32 attacks -- many against Colombia's. vulnerable oil
pipelines in the eastern departments. In Peru, both the Sendero Luminoso
(SL) and the Revolutionary Movement Tupac Amaru (MRTA) increased their
terrorist activity. The SL carried out 20 attacks in 1986, compared with
four incidents in 1985. The MRTA was responsible for some 38 incidents, up
from eight in 1985.
In Ecuador, government counterterrorist successes severely crippled the
operational capabilitites of the Alfaro Vive, Carajo! terrorist group. In
Chile, General Pinochet narrowly escaped an attempt on his life, but
terrorists suffered a setback with the seizure of several extensive arms
caches. In Central America, urban terrorism was down sharply as the major
terrorist groups worked to rebuild after government counterterrorist
successes.
GI I' i 6')- Zo0"14
lq Sa.Mu,Ana AS 1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
Asia/Africa
In Asia, most terrorist violence was attributed to the activities of
Tamil and Sikh separatists. The year also was marked by increased ethnic
violence in Pakistan punctuated by a number of bombings, some probably the
work of Afghan state agents. In September Karachi was the scene of the
year's bloodiest hijacking. World attention also focused on Tokyo prior to
and during last May's economic summit when the Japanese terrorist group,
Chukaku-ha, launched rockets at several facilities associated with the
summit. In the Philippines, the New People's Army carried out five
attacks, three more than in 1985.
We recorded a very low number of incidents in Africa. Sporadic
terrorist violence was carried out by South Africa's African National
Conference and Angola's UNITA. Many of the incidents involved land mines
or bombings. Groups in the Sudan and Ethiopia were responsible for some
sporadic low level terrorist violence.
G1 m 81-Cooly
I t1 .'Snr~_r-~ 19A1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
International Terrorist Incidents by Region
Africa
Percent
1986 1985 Change
21- 42 -50
Asia 66 41 +60
Latin America 144 119 +21
Middle East 356 357 NoChg
North America 3 4 -25
Western Europe 131 218 -40
Nationality of Selected Targets
Percent of Percent of
All Intl All Intl Percent
Nationality 1986 Incidents 1985 Incidents Change
Israel 199 21 198 19 Neg
US 191 20
France 76 8
Palestinian 36 3
Spain 28 2
UK 28 2
170 16
46 4
44 4
37 3
28 2
+65
4%1 M R'1- 7 00 164
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
FIGURE 3
International Terrorist Incidents by Target
1986
1985
Business
201
227
Diplomats
96
91
Government
90
92 14
Military
55
67
Other
420
479
FIGURE 4
Selected International Terrorist Incidents by Type of Attack
1986
1985
Bombings
394
399
Armed Attacks
131
143
Arson Attacks
104
102
Kidnapings
51
87
Skyjackings
1
12
6,IM8o)-Zoom}
,.a -s nnw
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
FIGURE 5
Terrorist Casualties by Selected Nationalities
1986
1985
Killed
Wounded
Total
Killed
Wounded
Total
us
11
101
113
38
157
195
- Israel
13
163
176
25
80.
105
Spain
--
--
--
28
130
158
France
27
258
285
12
89
101
Syria
271
276
507
--
--
--
FIGURE 6
Selected International Terrorist Targets by Type of Facility
1986
1985
Business other
42
16
Diplomatic
73
58
Military
29
34
Office
29
52
Petroleum
29
19
Residence
28
35
Restaurant/Hotel
24
28
Retail
21
29
Transportation Terminal
18
22
Vehicle
130
113
GI M 8'1- Zook
w zramarq
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
FIGURE 7
Number of Attacks Associated With
Selected State Supporters of Terrorism
1986
1985
Syria
34
Iran
8
34
Libya
17
14
Others
2
14
TOTAL
30
96
FIGURE 8
International Terrorist Incidents of Middle Eastern Origin
60
Number
50
of
40
Attacks
30
in Western Europe -- 1981-1986
1981
1982 1983 19814 19-8 1 886
GI m 81- 2,001H 14
I4 Swart, 1981)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
FIGURE 9
Anti-US Attacks by Region
Percent
1986
1985
Change
Africa
3
+233
-
Asia
18
8
+125
Latin America
96
77
+ 24
Middle East
24
17
+ 41
Western Europe
42
63
- 34
Business
Diplomat
Government
Military
Other
FIGURE 10
Anti-US Attacks by Target
1986
81
29
26
17
52
1985
65
15
26
31
62
GI m 81- Loo 1,4
$4 3,1nULt N i9 S1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90T00114R000404210001-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7
FIGURE 11
Selected Anti-US Attacks by Type
1986
1985
Bombing
123
96
Arson
23
28
Kidnaping
10
19
Armed Attack
23
11
&1 r 61-L0O1q
ILA SZAua
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/14: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404210001-7