THE CENTRAL AMERICAN PEACE PLAN--A STATUS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000100440001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 2, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 25, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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Centml Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C.20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
25 August 1987
'The Central American Peace Plan--A Status Report 25X1
Summary
The Central Americans have made little progress in fleshing out
the specifics of the peace accord since it was signed on 7 August.
The Sandinistas have proclaimed their willingness to comply with the
agreement but appear intent on keeping a tight lid on opposition
political activity. The Nicaraguan rebels,. despite their suspicion of
the plan, have announced their support for it and-are. challenging the
regime to hold direct cease-fire negotiations. The Central American
democracies say they will press Managua to implement the
democratization measures, but only El.Salvador has developed a
strategy to put the Sandinistas on the defensive. 25X1
Off to a Slow Start
Although the Central American Presidents have complied thus far
.with the timetable specified in the Guatemala peace accord, little
progress has been made to. clarify procedures for implementation. All
five Foreign Ministers met in San Salvador last week, for example, to
install themselves as an.Executive Committee to implement the accord,
but they failed to achieve the main goal of setting up working
committees. Similarly, the brief meeting of the Central American and
Contadora Foreign Ministers in Caracas last weekend was limited to
establishing the International Verification Commission--in which they
all take part--with no..effort to discuss its work or to set an agenda
for talks on arms control.
This memorandum. was;., requested by the staff of the NSC. It was
prepared'by. Office of African and 25X1
Latin American Analysis. Questions and comments are welcome and
should be addressed to Chief, Middle American-Caribbean Division,.ALA,
DATE-e-41-7
DOC NO Zf LA-A A7 ZE 3
OIR ,?
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Nicaraguan Reactions
Managua says it will comply with the peace accord but appears to
be preparing ways to substitute cosmetic reforms for the sweeping
political freedoms required by the plan. Regime leaders claim full
political rights are guaranteed by the constitution promulgated last
January, and they cite an amnesty program begun in January 1985--which
they say thousands of rebels and collaborators have already embraced--
as proof of their willingness to allow the insurgents back into
civilian life. In addition, President Ortega recently went to Havana
to enlist Cuban support for the plan. Managua also has given
prominent media attention to its initial steps toward implementation,
such as inviting the Catholic Church and opposition parties to prepare
slates of nominees for the National Reconciliation Commission. Even
so, the government has not responded to a request from the newspaper
La Prensa for permission to resume publishing. Moreover, Embassy
reporting suggests the regime is manipulating opposition efforts to
select nominees to the Reconciliation Commission.
The government also has kept a tight lid on activities by the
internal opposition. Sandinista police used dogs, cattle prods, and
proregime crowds to stop two opposition marches on 15 August; four
demonstrators, including the director of the independent human rights
office, were arrested and are still in prison. Although opposition
leaders initially were eager to push for increased political freedoms
during the 90-day period before implementation of the plan, their
efforts have been set back by the Sandinista crackdown and internal
squabbling. Nonetheless, the opposition sent a delegation to meet
with Salvadoran President Duarte last weekend and most likely will
hold small demonstrations to keep the regime on the defensive.
For their part, the Nicaraguan rebels, although initially
disheartened by the plan, now are trying to turn it to their
advantage. At first, the six rebel Directorate members were
discouraged because the plan excludes them from peace talks and calls
for a cutoff of all outside aid to them. Last week, however, the
insurgents announced their support for the plan during a widely
publicized official visit to El Salvador to meet with Duarte and
challenged the Sandinistas to demonstrate their good will by holding
direct cease-fire negotiations. Directorate member Robelo said that
he wants the insurgents to begin political activities in Managua soon.
Attitudes of the Democracies
The leaders of the four democracies generally are satisfied with
the peace agreement, convinced it will either achieve peace or isolate
Nicaragua by exposing its refusal to accept democratic reform,
according to US Embassy reporting. They also are pleased that they
have reduced the influence of the Contadora mediators. Costa Rican
President Arias and Guatemalan President Cerezo are relishing their
personal diplomatic triumphs, and Arias has won his goal of inducing
Nicaragua to withdraw its suit in the World Court. For his part,
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Duarte views the agreement as a means of isolating the Salvadoran
rebels diplomatically and of putting pressure on Managua to follow his
initiatives and conduct talks with the Nicaraguan rebels.
Nevertheless, the initial euphoria has faded somewhat with the
realization that much work remains, according to Embassy reports. All
of the democracies say they want to keep the heat on Managua, but they
show no signs of developing a coordinated strategy. Moreover, they
are reluctant to be seen as trying to isolate Nicaragua.
Only El Salvador has devised an active strategy, by promoting
parallel negotiations in El Salvador and Nicaragua. Duarte has
challenged the Salvadoran rebels to cease-fire negotiations far in
advance of the accord's deadline of 90 days and says Managua should do
the same.. El Salvador also has announced its willingness to permit
Nicaraguan inspections of its territory and made plans for other
unilateral moves, such as requesting peacekeeping forces to patrol the
Honduran border, where the Salvadoran rebels maintain strongholds.
The insurgents have accepted Duarte's offer to talk but have refused
his condition that they accept the peace agreement and give up the
armed struggle.
In contrast to El Salvador, Guatemala has undertaken no
initiatives, insisting that its rebels abandon the fight before talks
begin. The Guatemalan guerrillas have rejected the plan and are
showing no signs that they are sophisticated enough to exploit it for
political advantage. In our judgment,'Cerezo's main preoccupation
will continue to be the Central American Parliament--a pet project
that was incorporated into the peace accord--and he is unlikely to
devote much effort to pressing Managua to liberalize its policies
before 7 November.
The accord imposes few immediate burdens on Honduras and Costa
Rica, which have no insurgencies and will not form National
Reconciliation Committees. The Hondurans appear the most dissatisfied
with the accord, and
many military officers and some civilian officials are
upset with the Foreign Ministry for not securing a stronger agreement.
The delayed arrival of the Honduran Foreign Minister at the Central
American Foreign Ministers' meeting last week and some public
criticisms of the peace plan have fed press reports that Tegucigalpa
is footdragging. Azcona is the only leader to have publicly called
for contingency funds for the Nicaraguan insurgents
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Costa Rica's Arias reportedly doubts that the Sandinistas will
accept democratization, and his government may seek ways to monitor
Nicaraguan compliance. Foreign Minister Madrigal, for example, argued
at the Caracas meeting of Foreign Ministers for a specific calendar to
measure Nicaraguan implementation. 25X1
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Next Steps
The Central Americans apparently do not intend to pick up the
pace of their consultations in the near future. Working-level
officials of the International Verification Commission will meet in
Managua on 17 and 18 September to discuss verification issues and
presumably to begin talks on arms control. The Central American
Foreign Ministers also will meet in Managua at about that time, and we
expect both sessions will give more detailed attention to the
differing interpretations of the cease-fire provisions of the peace
agreement. The democracies are likely to devote more attention to
Nicaraguan implementation of the commitment to democracy as time goes
on, but Managua probably will attempt to deflect their efforts by
saying it is unable to adopt domestic reforms until the fighting
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Schedule for the Central American Peace Agreement
Signature (7 August 1987)
- Governments appeal to regional states with insurgencies to reach agreement ending
hostilities.
15 Days (22 August 1987)
- Central American Foreign Ministers met in San Salvador as Executive Committee to
regulate compliance and organize working committees.
20 Days (27 August 1987)
- National Reconciliation Committees to be formed.
90 Days (7 November 1987)
- Cease-fires take place.
- Governments prevent use of their territories by insurgents and request cutoff of
. external aid to rebels.
- Governments grant amnesty; rebels release prisoners.
- Democratization provisions take effect, including political freedoms, press freedom,
and ending of state-of-siege restrictions.
120 Days (7 December 1987)
International Verification and Follow-up Commission analyzes progress made In
fulfillment of agreement.
150 Days (7 January 1988)
- Central American Presidents meet to discuss the report of the Verification
Commission.
By First Semester 1988 (30 June 1988)
- Simultaneous elections for the Central American parliament, with International
observation.
No Time Periods Given
- Arms control talks begin with Contadora mediation.
- Time frame for duration of the agreement.
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SUBJECT: CENTRAL AMERICA PEACE PLAN--A STATUS REPORT
25 August 1987
Distribution:
Ms. Jackie Tillman, NSC, Old EOB, Room 391
Mr. Ronald Godard, Deputy Director, Office of Central American
Affairs, Room 4915, State
The Honorable William G. Walker, Room 6263, State
The Honorable Morris Busby, Room 6263, State
Mr. Richard Wyrough, Deputy Director/Coordinator, Office of
Central American and Panamanian Affairs, Room 4915, State
Mr. Luigi Einaudi, Director, Office of Policy Planning
Coordination/ARA, Room 6913A, State
Mr.. Robert Fouche, Director, Office of Analysis for Inter-
American Republics/INR, Room 7358, State
Mr. David Smith, Chief, Middle America-Caribbean Division/INR,
Room 7637, State
Mr. Robert Witajewski, ARA/CEN, Room 4915, State
Mr. Robert Pastorino, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Inter-
American Affairs, DOD, Room 4C800, Pentagon
Dr. Tony Gray, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for
Inter-American Affairs., DOD, Room 4C800, Pentagon
Col. John Cash, DIO/DIA, Room 2A520, Pentagon
DIA/DE3, DIAC, Bolling Air Force Base
DIA/DB3, DIAC, Bolling Air Force Base
CAJIT (Ken Rosen) Room 1D917, Pentagon
SOUTHCOM
DDI Rep CINCLANT Room 168, Bldg. NH95, Norfolk, VA
NSA, Room 3A156, Fort Meade, MD
SINIO, NSA, Room 3A109, Fort Mead, MD
SSCI Room 7B02, HQs
HPSCI Room 7B02, HQs
DCI/DDCI, Executive Staff
Executive Registry - 7E12
Mr. Daniel Childs, Comptroller - 7C21
Director, Office of Congressional Affairs - 7D43
Office of Congressional Affairs - 7B02
NIO/LA - 7E62
NIO/Economics (Mr. Dean Hoffman) - 7E62
NIC/AG - 7E47
C/LA/DDO - 3C3203
DDI - 7E44
C/PES/DDI 7F24
D/CPAS - 7F16
PDB Staff - 7F30
SCIO/CPAS/DDI
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CPAS/IMC/CB/DDI - 7G07 (5)
CPAS/ISS/DDI -7G50
CPAS/CDPB/CC/DDI -GH25
C/OGI/FSIC/SA/DDI - 3G13
C/OGI/FSIC/PIB/DDI - 2G09
C/OGI/FSIC/I/DDI - 3G46
C/OGI/ISID/DDI - 2G28
C/OGI/GD/WH/DDI - 2G00
C/LA/LDA/DDI - 1H39
D/ALA/DDI -3F45 (2)
Production Staff/ALA/DDI - 4F21 (2)
C/ALA/MCD/DDI - 4F29
DC/ALA/MCD DDI - 4F29 (2)
C/ALA/MCD
C/ALA/MCD
C/ALA/MCD
C/ALA/MCD
C/ALA/MCD
4F29 (10)
DI - 4F39 (10)
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4F39
DI - 4F21
ALA/MCD/Files - 4F29 (5)
ALA/MCD
ALA/MCD
DDI/ALA/MCD/NIC
4F29
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(25Aug87)
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