NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR MONTHLY REPORT #4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90T00114R000100260001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 29
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 1, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
MAY 19$7
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR
MONTHLY REPORT #4
This memorandum was prepared by the Nicaragua and Central America
Branches of the Office of African and Latin American Analysis.
It was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. It
contains information available as of 5 June 1987. Questions and
comments are welcome and should be addressed to Chief, Middle
America-Caribbean Division, ALA
ALA M 87-20031C
Copy of 100
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NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR MONTHLY REPORT #4
NICARAGUA
Developments During May 4
The Anti-Sandinista Insurgency: Key Indicators
The Sandinista Regime: Key Indicators
Government and Insurgent Activity, May 1987
Nicaraguan Clashes, April-May 1987
Nicaraguan Clashes by Week, June 1986-May 1987
Nicaraguan Clashes by Region, June 1986-May 1987
Insurgent Air Resupply, June 1987-May 1987
FDN Troops Inside Nicaragua, June 1986-May 1987
Soviet and East European Arms Deliveries to Nicaragua
6
Foreign Advisers in Nicaragua
7
Western Aid to Nicaragua
g
Nicaraguan Human Rights Chronology
g
Insurgent Human Rights Record
g
Sandinista Human Rights Record
g
Significant Nicaraguan Political Events
11
EL SALVADOR
Developments During May
12
Government and Rebel Activity, May 1987
Salvadoran Clashes, April-May 1987
Salvadoran Clashes by Week, June 1986-May 1987
External Support to Salvadoran Insurgents
COMING EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
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NICARAGUA
Developments During May
The Insurgent Effort
Levels of fighting and rebel aerial resupply increased
during May. The insurgents also made political gains with the
restructuring of their umbrella organization, although internal
rivalries will continue to undermine unity. The rebels appear to
have been caught off guard by a Sandinista offensive into the
Rio Bocay Valley, but the operation had only limited military
impact.
Insurgent attacks on economic targets have become wide-
spread. (See attached indicators.) On 10 May, the insurgents
attacked and severely damaged fuel and chemical storage tanks
near Rama, according to the US Embassy in Managua.
Meanwhile, the
Nicaraguan Democratic Force (FDN) increased its propaganda effort
by airdropping antiregime leaflets near the cities of Esteli,
Chinandega, and Matagalpa.
Insurgent operations were sustained by airdrops made
throughout eastern Nicaragua and as far west as Lake Apanas in
Jinotega Department.
Months of political negotiations finally bore fruit with the
formation of a new umbrella. organization called the Nicaraguan
Democratic Resistance, which added representatives of the center-
left Southern Opposition Bloc and the Atlantic coast Indians to
the constituent groups of the previous umbrella organization. A
new seven-member directorate includes Southern Bloc leader
Alfredo Cesar and recently self-exiled moderate Azucena Ferrey.
The addition of Cesar and Ferrey, who have ties to political
groups in Western Europe and Latin America, may provide some
additional international support to the insurgents. The
restructuring, however, probably will not resolve personal and
.ideological differences. Tensions are likely to be aggravated as
rebel leaders
jockey for influence and begin to discuss personnel and policy
issues, including the formation of a national army.
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The Sandinista Regime
Managua--using aggressive tactics and tight security--scored
a propaganda victory in a brief operation against the rebel
supply and infiltration route in the Rio Bocay Valley early in
the month. The government demonstrated improved capabilities in
conducting its largest airmobile operation ever, carrying 700 to
1,600 troops by helicopter to an area 'ust south of the Honduran
border, according to press reporting The 25X1
regime probably believed the offensive would discredit press
accounts that the insurgents had established a permanent presence
on Nicaraguan soil. Good operational security--a Sandinista
strength--allowed government troops to surprise FDN forces. The
multibattalion operation was well-coordinated, but Managua lost a
helicopter to an insurgent Redeye surface-to-air missile and
admitted several dozen casualties. 25X1
On the political side, a government-sponsored multi-ethnic
assembly approved a draft autonomy plan for the Atlantic coast in
late April. On paper, the proposal appears to be responsive to
the concerns of minorities in the region. The US Embassy in
Managua reports, however, that the fundamental issue of control_
over local resources is not addressed, the central government
retains significant powers, and the coastal population's reaction
has not been enthusiastic. The plan is likely to be approved by
the National Assembly late this summer and will be touted
internationally as an example of Sandinista commitment to
minorities.
Meanwhile, the government has taken several steps, including
lifting many import restrictions and suspending raids on illegal
markets, that contrast sharply with its previous hard line toward
the black market. The new policy--which may be in response to
rising public discontent, unfavorable press coverage, and Soviet
criticism--could ease shortages of some consumer goods over the
short term but is unlikely to undercut informal commerce
substantially.
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The Anti-Sandinista Insurgency
Key Indicators
O Deficient ? Substantial
? Weak ? Strong
? Moderate
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
I Presence in country
0
0
0
?
0
0
0
0
0
0
?
?
tlign
2 Geographic extent of operations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
?
?
?
High
3 Command, control, and complexity of operations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Med
4 Intelli ence and security
0
0
0
?
0
0
0
0
?
0
?
O
High
S Mlhtary 1n1t1a Llve
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
?
O
O
O
Med
6 Combat proficiency
O
O
O
O
O
O
?
O
?
0
~
?
Med
7 Troop morale and discipline
0
0
0
0
~
?
?
0
?
~
~
?
Low
8 Availability of weapons/ammunition/equipment
O
O
O
O
0
~
?
~
?
?
?
?
High
9 Logistic support
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
?
?
High
Political Capabilities
10 Leadership quality and charisma
0
0
0
0
?
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
High
Cohesion and unity
0
0
0
0
~
~
0
0
0
0
0
0
High
12 Appeal of movement inside Nicaragua
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Med
13 Development and expression of political program
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
O
?
0
0
O
High
14 Cooperation of rural population
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Med
15 Urban support
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
High
16 Cooperation by Central American states
~
~
0
?
?
0
?
0
?
0
?
0
Hign
17 Foreign support and recognition
0
~
0
0
0
?
?
?
?
0
?
0
High
High~LCVeI of confidence
Med in judgment
Low
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The Sandinista Regime
Key Indicators
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
I Command and control
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
~
Mea
2 Strategy and tactics
Q
Q
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
Q
Med
3 Intelligence and security
Q
~
Q
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
Q
Med
4 Military aggressiveness
m
m
Q
Q
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
Med
5 Mobility/Presence in countryside
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
~
~
~
~
Q
Q
Q
High
6 Combat effectiveness
[~
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
Q
m
Mea
7 Recruitment and retention
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
Med
8 Availability of weapons and equipment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Hign
9 Logistic support
m
m
m
m
m
O
m
m
m
m
m
m
High
10 Ability to assimilate equipment and
operate without foreign advisors
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
Mea
Political Capabilities
I I Directorate unity and cohesion
Q
Q
Q
Q
~
~
~
~
~
~
Q
Q
Med
12 Civilian/military relations
Q
Q
Q
Q
(~
(~
~
~
~
[~
Q
(~
Med
13 Internal security
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
High
14 Political institutions
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
~"'
I S Ability to mobilize mass support
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
~"'
16 Control of political opposition
~
~
~
~
O
~
O
~
O
O
~
~
Hign
17 Ability to defuse religious/ethnic discontent
Q
m
t~
m
Q
m
m
m
t~
m
Q
m
Mea
18 Ability to deflect dissatisfaction with economic performance
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
~
~
~
(~
~
~
Q
Mea
19 Foreign political/diplomatic support
m
m
m
Q
Q
Q
~
~
~
~
~
~
Mea
~ Deficient
~ Weak
~ Moderate
~
O
Substantial
Strong
High~LCVeI of confidence
AeW in judgment
1986 1987
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Government and Insurgent Activity, May 1987
Boundary re0reaentation is
not necessarily autAOritatire.
Andres
de BocaY
Teguicgalpa*
EI Salvador
p~no~
Fonseca
North
Pacific Ocean
Insurgent resupply drop site
Area affected by power blackout
Department boundary
0 50 Kilometers
0 50 Miles
COSta
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Nicaraguan Clashes, April-May 1987
Boundary repreaentefion ie
not necessarily authoritative{
!VD "f f7
~:3C/1{!C QCE3(1
o May clash
(234 reported)
~ ~ Areas of April
clashes (204 reported)
50 Kilometers
t-L~
50 Miles
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~'scaraguan Gashes June X986 -- ~3ay ~98i
This graph is based on weekly totals
of clashes generated from all source
reporting. It includes only those
clashes identified by date and location.
Due to collection limitations,
data for recent weeks are incomplete.
The addition of new information will
cause slight variations from one
month to the next.
- ~
p..~____....~...r_.~....._~.T..,.._..____._,~. .............r.__._....._,..1._..__._._. _7.......__._.r~....____.T._.,.._.r,.~.....y_-.r.,__......__~.,..._.._.~
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FE8 MAR * APR * MAY
1986 1987
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NICARAGUAN CLASHES BY REGION
June 1986 -May 1987
Legend
? PAgF1C
m NORTHEAST
? SOUTH
m NORTHIMEST
? CENTRAL
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
~u c~Oii n~i- ~Tc
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~o
70 -!
40 -~
INSURGENT AIR RESUPPLY
June 1986 ~- ItiRQy 1987
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT N0~1 DEC JAN FEfi
fi 9 fi 5~ 0 1 3 2 6
r'~~~
C~ NORTHEAST
~ SOUTH
f~3 NORTHWEST
CENTRAL
MAR APR MAY
.29 42 Numb~~ o! Altdrops
~E3TlMATED 25X1
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.NUMBER OF TRpOPB
JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
Legend
~ tow PowT
P1J HtOH POINT
25X1
FDN TROOPS INSIDE NICARAGUA
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Soviet and East European prNs
Deliveries to Nicaragua
- 1980 1981 1982 1983 1964
1987.First Quarter Oily
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 W1W1ll111.1LI1IW11111111LIIUlI1LllIW11111llL1111L!Ild 1`iL.LIIWILLI~IL I _I- _
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9000
8000
?000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
East 100
Europeans
*Midpoint of 2,000-2,500
CURRENT FOREIGN PRESENCE IN NICARAGUA
Military Civilian
Cubans 2,225* 2,225*
Soviets 75 200
~Eas t European s
~So~iets
?Cubans~
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I I
Mester~ Aid to Nicaragua
VS Million S
SOOr
400
300
200
290
~ L
1979
C L
1980
Recent Developments
376
1981
320 320
~--~ ._..
114
0 O 0
1964 1985 1986
Military
DEconoMic
Nicaraguan Vice President
Ramirez in mi - ay as a exican President de la Madrid for an
increase in crude oil deliveries to Nicaragua. The US Embassy in
Mexico City reports that de la Madrid refused to promise any more
oil on credit, even though Ramirez claimed the Soviets will cease
oil shipments to Nicaragua in October. Managua accumulated a
$500-million oil debt to Mexico City before shipments were sus-
pended in June 1985.
According to Nicaraguan press reports, Minister of Foreign
Cooperation Ruiz signed a $7-million economic assistance
agreement with Finland in early May, representing Helsinki's
largest-ever economic aid package to the regime. The Nicaraguan
press also reported that Norway will increase aid to $15 million
this year while the Netherlands will reduce assistance by as much
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NICARAGUAN HUMAN RIGHTS CHRONOLOGY
In May, Sandinista accusations of insurgent human rights
violations remained low, following a six-month pattern.
Nicaraguan President Ortega publicly denied the existence of
either systematic or official violations of human rights. He
confirmed however, that there were 8,000-10,000 prisoners in the
country, of which 60 percent were classified as common criminals.
INSURGENT HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD
4 May
The rebels kidnaped 10 Nicaraguans, including two women
teachers, from a village in Nueva Segovia Department and took
them to Honduras, according to Sandinista press reporting.
16 May
According to the US Embassy, an eyewitness claimed two
Sandinista Defense Committee organizers were shot by the rebels
in Comalapa, Chontales Department.
SANDINISTA HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD
24 April-4 May
several human rights abuses.
Sandinista troops committed
-- Sixto Gonzalez Hernandez, presumably a civilian, was
murdered by a Sandinista patrol at Santa Anita de Sisle,
Jinotega Department.
-- A Nicaraguan woman was killed by a Sandinista mine while
en route from Planes de Vilan to Guapinol, Jinotega
Department.
25X1
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28 April
Rebels claim Sandinista patrol murdered the father of six
children for not providing information on insurgent troop
positions.
8 May
Army troops attacked the home of two civilians at
Piedra Grande, Chontales Department, killing them and wounding
A man and his two sons were murdered by an EPS atrol from
Paiwas
0
15 May
A civilian in Ocotol was killed after stepping on two anti-
personnel mines which had been placed by Sandinista troops.
10
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SIGNIFICANT NICARAGUAN POLITICAL EVENTS
2 May International Parliamentary Union conference, with
delegations from 90 countries, ends in Managua
after discussing prospects for peace in the Middle
East and Central America.
Mid-May New seven-member directorate of insurgent umbrella
group, renamed the Nicaraguan Democratic
Resistance, is formed. It includes representa-
tives from the center-left Southern Opposition
Bloc, the Atlantic coast Indians, the Social
Democrats, the Christian Democrats, and the
Nicaraguan Democratic Force. The Consultative
Assembly is expanded to 54 members to accommodate
delegates from each of the traditional political
and ethnic groups as well as labor and business.
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EL SALVADOR
Political and Economic Developments
El Salvador's economic problems continued to plague
President Duarte last month. The Finance Minister has told the
US Embassy that the government faces a $25-million budget deficit
in June and will be unable to meet its payroll. Declining coffee
tax revenues, coupled with a successful right-wing challenge to
government efforts to raise revenues through a tax on wealth
earlier this year, will increase the overall deficit to more than
$160 million and spur already expanding inflation, according to
Embassy reporting. The budget crisis, which already has delayed
salary payments to both military and civilian employees, is
increasing tensions in the government work force, but we believe
it is unlikely to affect the counterinsurgency effort in the
Competing political and financial challenges will make it
difficult for Duarte to implement measures--including new taxes,
spending cuts, and currency devaluation--to strengthen the
economy. With legislative elections less than a year away,
Duarte and others in the ruling Christian Democratic Party have
repeatedly told Embassy officials they cannot undertake any
initiatives that would further erode their popular support.
Meanwhile, the government's lack of a coherent economic agenda is
holding up disbursement of US economic aid. Although some in the
military are increasingly disenchanted with the President's
performance, Duarte can count on 25X1
strong backing rom senior o icers o survive the crisis. The
Army appears resigned to civilian lethargy and mismanagement
because the guerrillas seem unable to mobilize much urban sup ort
or protest activity despite growing economic problems. 25X1
The President has initiated moves to abandon state-of-
emergency legislation and Decree 50, which allowed the security
services wide latitude in arresting and interrogating prisoners.
On 7 May, he submitted a proposal to the legislature to free 600
of 800 prisoners awaiting trial for subversive activities under
Decree 50. In early June, he plans to propose a new anti-
terrorist law that would replace Decree 50 and the state of
emergency and give terrorists the protection of constitutional
guarantees. Duarte's moves are meant to demonstrate his con-
tinued efforts to improve human rights conditions in E1 Salvador
and undercut the guerrillas, who have pointed to Decree 50 as
evidence of continued government repression.
Military Developments
On 20 May, the government committed all six infantry
brigades and several elite battalions to a 60-day nationwide
counterinsurgency operation. The Army probably felt hard pressed
by domestic criticism arising from several successful guerrilla
actions during March and April. The operation is intended
primarily to disrupt insurgent logistics operations and planning
12
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others, and recovered i35 weapons in the first two weeks.
the Army reported having killed 90 guerrillas, captured many
as well as dispel fears that the armed forces' commitment to the
counterinsurgency is flagging. Early results were encouraging;
guerrilla kidnapings and
began.
killings o civi cans in Usu utan and San Miguel Departments
increased significantly early in the month. The insurgents took
advantage of the apparent lack of Army aggressiveness in that
area to force civilians to serve as porters and new recruits.
Such activities probably have fallen off since the Army operation
participating in civil defense.
The insurgents increased attacks on government civil defense
units during the month. In the most serious incident, one child
and three members of a unit in northern La Paz were killed.
Rebel attacks in the past have inhibited civilians from
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Government and Guerrilla Activity, May 1987
9oundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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Salvadoran Clashes, April-May 1987
o May clash
(613 reported)
~ Areas of April
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
225X1
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Salvadoran Clashes June 1986 - May 1987
This graph is based on weekly totals
of clashes generated from all source
reporting. It includes only those
clashes identified by date and location.
Due to collection limitations, data for
recent weeks are incomplete. The addi-
tion of new information will cause
slight variations from one month to the next.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/04 :CIA-RDP90T00114R000100260001-9
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EXTERNAL SUPPORT FOR SALVADORAN INSURGENTS
Nothing to report.
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 ___L ~l_- .. J.I ; . _.i l
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COMING EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING JUNE
President Duarte is scheduled to make a State of
the Union Address, in which he plans to make
several political acid economic policy initiatives.
assistance for Costa Rica during his visit.
Kingdom, West Germany, Italy, and France. Arias
solicited support for his peace plan and economic
Costa Rican President Arias returns from a four-
week trip to Portugal, Spain, Belgium, the United
14-16 June Arias plans to attend the Pan American Economic
Leadership Conference in Indianapolis to promote
his regional peace initiative.
Mid-June The Foreign Ministers of Honduras, Costa Rica,
Guatemala, and E1 Salvador will meet in Tela,
Honduras, for further discussions of the Arias
peace plan.
25-26 June The Central American Presidents will attend a
summit Guatemala to discuss Costa Rica's peace
proposal.
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Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
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o
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR MONTHLY REPORT N0. 3
DISTRIBUTION
Copy 1 - Mr. Donald Gregg, The White House, EOB, Room 298
2 - Mr. Frank Carlucci, Assistant to the President for
National Security, NSC
3 - Amb. Jose Sorzano, NSC, Old EOB, Room 391
4 - Mr. Barry Kelly, NAC, Old EOB, Room 300
5 - The Honorable Elliott Abrams/Michael H. Armacost/
William G. Walker/Morris Busby/Philip Habib,
Room 6263, State
6 - Amb. Morton I. Abramowitz, Director, Bureau of
Intelligence and Research, Room 6531, State
7 - The Honorable Fred C. Ikle, USP/D, DOD, Room 4D810,
Pentagon
8 - Mr. Robert Pastorino, DOD, Pentagon, Rm 4C8OO
9 - LTG Dale A. Vesser, JCS, Room 2E996, Pentagon
10 - RADM Anthony A. Less, JCS, Room 2E976, Pentagon
11 - LTG John Moellering, USA, Room 2E872, Pentagon
12 - CAJIT, (Ken Rosen) 1D917, Pentagon
13 - SOUTHCOM
14 -
15 - DDI Rep CINCLANT
NH95, Norfolk, VA
en~ n Rm 2A520
Room 168, Bldg.
16 - LTG Leonard H. Perroots, USAF, Room 3E258, Pentagon
]. 8
20 - r. oug as Mulhollan Treasury
21 - DIA/DE3 DIAL,
Bolling Air
?.2 - DIA/DB3C
23
24
25
26
27
28
Bolling Air
SSCI -
HPSCI ~
ADCI - 7D60
SA/DCI/IA - 7E12
Executive Secretary - 7E12
DIAC, Room A3522,
Room 7BO2 Hdqtrs.
Room 7BO2 Hdqtrs
30 - Mr. Daniel Childs, Comptroller - 7C21
31 - Director of Congressional Affairs - 7D43
32 - Office of Congressional Affairs - 7BO4
33 - NIO/LA -7E62
34 - NIC/AG - 7E47
35 - C/LA/DDO -3C3202
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43 -
44 -
45 -
46 -
47 -
48 -
49-53
54 -
55 -
56 -
57 -
58 -
59 -
60 -
61 -
62 -
63 -
64 -
65 -
66 -
67-68
69-70
71 -
72-73
74 -
75 -
76 -
77 -
78 -
DDI - 7E44
C/PES/DDI - 7F24
D/CPAs - 7F16
PDB Staff - 7F30
SCIO/CPAS/DDI - 7F27
PPS/PO/RPB - 3DO2 -
CPAS/IMC/CB/DDI - 7G07
CPAS/ISS/DDI - 7G50
CPAS/CDPB/CC/DDI - GH25
D/OIA
(5
D/OGI/DDI - 3G00
C/OGI/FSIC/DDI 3G04
C/OGI/FSIC/SA/DDI - 3G13
C/OGI/FSIC/PIB/DDI - 2GO9
C/OGI/FSIC/I/DDI - 3G46
C/OGI/ISID/DDI - 2G28
C/OGI/GD/WH/DDI - 2GOO
C/OGI/ECD/DDI - 3G46
D/LA/LDA/DDI - 1H39
C/LA/LDA/DDI/ -1H39
D/ALA/DDI - 3F45 - (2)
Production Staff/ALA/DDI - 4F21 - (2)
C/ALA/MCD/DDI - 4F29
DC/ALA/MCD/DDI/ - 4F29 (2)
C/ALA/MCD/Nicaragua/DDI - 4F29
C/ALA/MCD/Central America/DDI - 4F39 (files)
C/ALA/MCD/Mexico/DDI - 4F39
C/ALA/MCD/Cuba/DDI - 4F39
C/ALA/Caribbean/DDI 4F21
95-99 ALA/MCD/Files - 4F29 - (5)
100 - ALA/MCD/Nicaragua Branch Files - 4F29
DDI/ALA/MCD/NIC/CA 8May87)
copies)
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