STATUS OF DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES IN PROCESS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 17, 2012
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: April 1, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/18 : CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
!,!_53,0x
S-318/DE
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TO: Distribution list
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20340- 6131
1 April 1988
SUBJECT: Status of Defense Intelligence Estimates in Process (U)
1. Attached is the April 1983 report on the status of defense estimates in
process in the Directorate for Estimates. This report is updated and
issued quarterly.
2. Each geographical section lists our planned production of defense STAT
estimates for the coming year, and concludes with a list of estimates
completed in the previous three months.
3. Occasional adjustments may have to be made to the schedule as we attempt
to respond to priority areas of interest or to requirements outside the
defense estimates program. In some cases, items will be dropped if they no
longer serve the intended purpose.'
4. The "Production Completed" section represents products approved by the
Directorate for Estimates and forwarded for printing and distribution.
Thus, you may find that in some cases receipt of the published estimate
will lag behind our status report.
5. Comments on our defense estimates program are welcome and should be
directed to Special Assistant for Departmental
Estimates, [phone], Autovon 243-4361. In particular, we invite your
recommendations for any additional topics you wish to be included or for
areas of special interest you wish to be covered in any of the listed
estimates.
FOR THE DIRECTOR:
1 Enclosure
Status of Defense Intel
Estimates in Process (S/NF)
Brigadier General, USA
Assistant Deputy Director
for Estimates
WHEN SEPARATED FROM CLASSIFIED
ENCLOSURE, THIS LETTER BECOMES
UNCLASSIFIED
STAT
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
?
Distritutton-Ltst:
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Atlantic Command
Director, J-2, U.S. Forces Command
Director of Intelligence, U.S. European Command
Deputy Chief of Staff/Intelligence, U.S. Army Europe
Director for Intelligence, U.S. Pacific Command
Connanderjn Chief, Pacific Fleet
Commander in Chief, Pacific Air Force (IN)
HQ, U.S. Forces Korea/CFC (ATTN: ACOFS J2 USFK)
Commander, Western Command (IN)
Director of Intelligence, U.S. Central Command
Director, J-2, U.S. Southern Command
Deputy Chief of Staff/Intelligence, U.S. Space Command
Director of Intelligence, U.S. Transportation Command
Deputy Chief of Staff/Intelligence, Strategic Air Command
Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3I)
Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Strategic & Theater Nuclear Forces)
Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Tactical Warfare Programs)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Security Affairs)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Security Policy)
Director, Program Analysis & Evaluation
Director, Net Assessment
Director, Joint Staff, JCS
Director for Strategic Plans and Policy, J-5, JCS
Director for Force Structure, Resource and Assessment, J-8, JCS
National Intelligence Council (4)
Director, National Security Agency/Central Security Service
Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, HQ, Department of the Army
Commander, U.S. Army Intelligence & Threat Analysis Center
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, HQ U.S. Air Force
Director of Intelligence, HQ, U.S. Marine Corps
Department of State, INR
CIA/DDI
CIA/ALA
HQ, U.S. European Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
HQ, U.S. Pacific Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
HQ, U.S. Central Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
HQ, U.S. Special Operations Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
HQ, U.S. Transportation Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
HQ, U.S. Southern Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
HQ, Strategic Air Command, ATTN: DIA Representative
U.S. National Military Representative, SHAPE, ATTN: DIA Representative
U.S. Military Representative, NATO
National Defense University (Strategic Concepts Development Center)
DIA
DIr DI-1 JSJ VO
DD DI-3 VP CSP
ED DI-5 VP-SO/P DC
DG DI-NFIB DB OA
DIO (7) JS DT DIC
DI JSI
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
STATUS OF DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES IN PROCESS
April 1938
Contents Page
Soviet Union and East Europe 1
Division Chief, COL J. Kemp Neill, USA, 373-4710
East Asia and Pacific
Division Chief, CAPT J.V. Roome, USN, 373-4488
Western Europe and Latin America
Division Chief (Acting), Mr. Gary R. McClellan,
373-4531
Middle East, Af ica, and South Asia
Division Chief, COL C. B. Reiber, USA 373-4508
Products
Defense Intelligence Estimates (DIEs).
Special Defense Intelligence Estimates (SDIEs).
Defense Intelligence E..timates Memoranda (DIEMs).
Defense Estimative Briefs (DEBs).
Special Defense Estimative Briefs (SDEBs).
Defense Intelligence Projections for Planning (DIPPs).
Notation
MTH = Memorandum-to-Holders
Status
Stage 1--Planned
Stage 2--Research/Drafting
Stage 3--DIA Coordination
Stage 4--Service Coordination
Stage 5--Final Production
12
17
CLASSIFIED BY DIA/DE
DECLASSIFY ON OADR
Enclosure to S-313/DE
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
STATUS OF DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES IN PROCESS
SOVIET UNION AND EAST EUROPE
I. SCHEDULED PRODUCTION
DIE: SOVIET SPACE-BASED OCEAN SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITIES OVER THE NEXT
20 YEARS (C)
Author: Dr. M. Toepfer, 373-4717
Status: Stage 4--Service Coordination
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
DIE: PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET NAVAL CAPABILITIES IN THE ARCTIC THROUGH THE
EARLY 1990S (C)
Author: LCDR S. Knight, 373-2613
Status: Stage 4--Service Coordination
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
DIE: SOVIET RESPONSE TO CHANGING U.S. STRATEGY TOWARD STRATEGIC DEFENSES
THROUGH THE 1990S (C)
Author: Ms. K. Horste, 373-4744
Status: Stage 3--DIA Coordination
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDIE: IMPACT OF SOVIET ARMS CONTROL COMPLIANCE THROUGH THE MID-19905 (C)
Author: Mr. C. Monson, 373-4737
Status: Stage 3--DIA Coordination
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDIE: POTENTIAL FOR DRONES IN SOVIET MILITARY OPERATIONS IN THE 1990S (C)
Author: Mr. M. Dierks, 373-4733
Status: Stage 4--Service Coordination
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDEB: SOVIET CRUISE MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS, 1988-1997 (C)
Author: Mr. C. Crowl, 373-2588
Status: Stage 2--Research/Drafting
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
1
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
SDEB: SOVIET NAVAL SHIP LIFE CYCLES THROUGH THE 19905 (C)
Author: Mr. A. Straub, 373-4748
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
SDEB: ROLE OF TANKERS IN STRATEGIC AVIATION INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS IN
THE 1990$ (C)
Author: Ms. L. Miller, 373-2616
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
SDEB: USSR-MIDDLE EAST: SOVIET PERSPECTIVES ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI
DISPUTE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS (C)
Author: Mr. C. Taylor, 373-4704
Status: Stage 2--Research/Drafting
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1989
SDEB: TRENDS IN WARSAW PACT SRBM'S THROUGH THE 1990S (C)
Author: Mr. M. EdmOndson, 373-4724
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1989
DIPP: NSWP, SECTION B, GENERAL PURPOSE NAVAL FORCES (C)
Author: LCDR S. Knight, 373-2706
Status: Stage 2--Research/Drafting
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DIPP: USSR, SECTION IIC, SOVIET MILITARY TRANSPORT AVIATION MTH (C)
Author: Capt B. Kuennecke, 373-4730
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DIPP: USSR, SECTION I, STRATEGIC MISSILE FORCES (C)
Author: Mr. C. Monson, 373-4737
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
3
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
SDEB: POTENTIAL AIR DEFENSE OF SOVIET MOBILE STRATEGIC MISSILES THROUGH
THE YEAR 2000 (C)
-Author: Mr. J. Yeany, 373-4742
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
SDEB: THE SOVIET SUBMARINE FORCE STRUCTURE THROUGH THE YEAR 2007 (C)
Author: Mr. W. Beck, 373-4745
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
DIPP: USSR, SECTION VI, SOVIET SPACE FORCES (C)
Author: Maj L. Maddox, 373-4718
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
DIPP: USSR, SECTION IV, GROUND FORCES (C)
Author: Mr. D. Windmiller, 373-4723
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
DIE: THE FUTURE OF SOVIET AIRBORNE, AIR ASSAULT, AND AIRMOBILE
FORMATIONS AND OPERATIONS IN THE 1990S (C)
Author: TBD
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
DIE: SOVIET STRATEGY TOWARD LATIN AMERICA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS(C)
Author: Mr. C. Taylor, 373-4704
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
DIE: THE WESTERN TVD: 1998 (C)
Author: Mr. M. Edmondson, 373-4724
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
5
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
II. PRODUCTION COMPLETED IN JANUARY-MARCH 1988
SDIE: SOVIET MILITARY FORCE LEVEL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FAR
EAST: 1988-1997 (C)
DDE-1200-427-88
Author: CDR. D. Christianson
DIPP: USSR, SECTION IIA STRATEGIC AVIATION (C)
DDE-1311-11-88
Author: Mr. J. LeMaster
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
7
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/18 : CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
DIE: PROSPECTS FOR THE CAMBODIAN RESISTANCE THROUGH 1990 (C)
Author: Mr. J. Kinder, 373-4488
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DIE: JAPAN'S DEFENSE FORCES: 1990-1995 (C)
Author: Mr. J. Greenwood, 373-3562
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DIPP: SECTION I, CHINESE BALLISTIC MISSILE FORCES:
1988-2008 (C)
Author: Mr. G. Stevens, 373-4499
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DIPP: SECTION IVB, CHINESE NAVAL FORCES: 1988-2008 (C)
Author: Mr. D. Hastie, 373-4659
Status: Stage 1--Planned
. Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DIE: PHILIPPINES: TRENDS IN MILITARY LEADERSHIP:
THE NEXT FIVE. YEARS (C)
Author: Dr. D. Berlin, 373-4487
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
DIE: EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SECURITY PROSPECTS THROUGH 1990 (C)
Author: Mr. D. Blessing, 373-4492
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
SDIE: SOUTH KOREAN-US SECURITY ISSUES INTO THE 1990s (C)
Author: LTC G. Artola, USA, 373-4485
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
9
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
II. PRODUCTION COMPLETED IN JAN, FEB, AND MAR 1988
DIE: PROSPECTS FOR A DIPLOMATIC SETTLEMENT IN CAMBODIA (C)
DDE-2200-521-88
Author: Mr. J. Kinder, 373-4488
SDIE: NORTH KOREAN MILITARY COOPERATION WITH THE PRC
AND THE USSR INTO THE 1990s (C)
DDE-2200-530-88
Author: LTC G. Artola, USA, 373-4485
DIEM: EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SECURITY PROSPECTS
THROUGH 1989 (C)
DDE-2200-372-88
Author: Mr. D. Blessing, 373-4492
DIA: CHINA AND THE IRANIAN ARMS CONNECTION: THE
SIGNIFICANCE FOR US-CHINESE SECURITY RELATIONS (U)
DVP-2600-5913-88
Authors: Dr. Rogers Spotswood, DE-2, 373-4497
Dr. Ronald N. Montaperto, DB-285, 373-2601
DIA: TAIWAN: THE POLITICS OF SUCCESSION (U)
DVP-2600-5932-88
Authors: Maj G. Man, USA, DE-2, 373-4493
Mr. William A. Wallace, DB-265, 373-2514
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
11
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
SDEB GREECE: IMPLICATIONS OF NATIONAL ELECTIONS ON GREEK-US
SECURITY RELATIONS THROUGH THE MID-1990'S (C)
Author: Mr. B. Knopp, 373-3067
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
SDEB: FRENCH SECURITY POLICY IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN: PROSPECTS
AND IMPLICATIONS THROUGH THE MID-1990'S (C)
Author: Dr. R. Riemann, 373-4515
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
SDEB CANADA: PROSPECTS FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DEFENSE WHITE
PAPER THROUGH THE MID-1990'S (C)
Author: Mr. M. Perry, 373-4516
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
DIPP FRANCE: PROJECTED GROUND FORCE TABLES TO 1998 (C)
Author: Mr. R. Myers, 373-4502
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 1st Quarter FY 1989
SDEB NORWAY: SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF NATIONAL ELECTIONS THROUGH
THE MID-1990'S (C)
Author: Dr. R. Riemann, 373-4515
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
SDEB CYPRUS: BALANCE OF FORCES THROUGH THE EARLY 1990'S (C)
Author: Mr. B. Knopp, 373-3067
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
13
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/18 : CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
SDIE: EL SALVADOR'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS: LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR
US SECURITY INTERESTS (C)
Author: Dr. T. Pallas, 373-4530
? Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
SDEB: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: PROSPECTS FOR ARMED SUBVERSION OVER THE
NEXT TWO YEARS (C)
Author: Mr. E. Heaton, 373-4529
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 2nd Quarter FY 1989
NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS
15
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/03/18 : CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, AND SOUTH ASIA
I. SCHEDULED PRODUCTION
SDIE: INDIAN POWER PROJECTION CAPABILITIES THROUGH THE 1990s (C)
Author: LTC W. Springer, 373-4524
Status: Stage 2--Research/Drafting
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDEB: PALESTINIAN UNREST IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR
REGIONAL SECURITY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS (C)
Author: Maj(P) R. Mulhern, 373-4372
Status: Stage 2--Research/Drafting
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDEB: UGANDA: BACK TO THE FUTURE: THE NEXT TWO YEARS (C)
Author: Dr. J. Saunders, 373-4528
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDEB: LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT IN THE WESTERN SAHARA OVER THE NEXT YEAR (C)
Author: Mr. R. Koeppen, 373-4518
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 3rd Quarter FY 1988
SDIE: WEST AFRICAN ISLAND STATES: DEFENSE AND SECURITY ISSUES, 1988-1989
(C)
Author: Dr. W. Stoakley, 373-4523
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
DEB: ZIMBABWE: SECURITY TRENDS THROUGH 1990 (C)
Author: Ms. M. Greenwood, 373-4526
Status: Stage 1--Planned
Completion Date: 4th Quarter FY 1988
17
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9
Secret
II. PRODUCTION COMPLETED IN JANUARY-MARCH 1988
SDEB: BAHRAIN: SECURITY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE 1990s (C)
SDEB-4-88
Author: LTC D. Spirek, 373-4520
SDEB: KUWAIT: SECURITY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE 1990s (C)
SDEB-5-88
Author: LTC D. Spirek, 373-4520
SDEB: THE TUNISIAN MILITARY'S ROLE IN STABILITY THROUGH 1991 (C)
SDEB-2-88
Author: Mr. R. Koeppen, 373-4518
SDIE: INDIAN AIR FORCE TRENDS INTO THE NEXT CENTURY (C)
DDE-2200-515-88
Author: Lt Col W. Worley, 373-4373
19
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP90M00551R001901170030-9