LETTER TO WILLIAM H. WEBSTER FROM JOHN H. GIBBONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00005R000700010005-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 14, 2013
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: June 7, 1988
• Content Type: LETTER

? Declassified and Approved ForRelease2013/08/14 : CIA-RDP90M00005R000700010005-4
88-2168X
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OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
WASHINGTON, DC 20510-8025
June 7, 1988
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT BOARD
MORRIS K. UDALL. ARIZONA, CHAIRMAN
TED STEVENS, ALASKA, VICE CHAIRMAN
ORRIN G. HATCH, UTAH
CHARLES E. GRASSLEY, IOWA
EDWARD M. KENNEDY, MASSACHUSETTS
ERNEST F. HOLLINGS, SOUTH CAROLINA
CLAIBORNE FELL. RHODE ISLAND
GEORGE E. BROWN, JR.. CALIFORNIA
JOHN D. DINGELL, MICHIGAN
CLARENCE E. MILLER, OHIO
DON SUNDQUIST, TENNESSEE
AMO HOUGHTON, NEW YORK
JOHN H. GIBBONS
The Honorable William H. Webster
Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, DC 20505
Dear Mr. Webster:
OCA
JOHN H. GIBBONS
DIRECTOR
;
I am pleased to enclose OTA's Report on SDI: Technology, Survivability,
and Software.
Public Law 99-190 (continuing appropriations) called for the Office of
Technology Assessment to conduct a "...comprehensive classified
study...together with an unclassified version...to determine the technological
feasibility and implications, and the ability to survive and function despite
a preemptive attack by an aggressor possessing comparable technology, of the
Strategic Defense Initiative Program." In addition, the accompanying
Conference Report specified that..."This study shall include an analysis of
the feasibility of meeting SDI computer software requirements."
This report responds to the above Congressional mandate. It puts SDI
technologies in context by reporting the kinds of ballistic missile defense
(BMD) system architectures that the SDI organization has been considering for
"phased deployment." It reviews the status of the various SDI technologies
and system components. It analyzes the feasibility of producing dependable
software of the complexity that advanced BMD systems would require. Finally,
it summarizes what is now known--and unknown--about the probable survivability
of such systems against concerted enemy attacks of various kinds.
The study found that major uncertainties remain about the probable cost,
effectiveness, and survivability of the kinds of BMD system--relying on
kinetic rather than directed energy weapons--that might be deployable in the
mid to late 1990s. In addition, several more years of research would be
needed to determine whether it is feasible to construct the kinds of directed
energy weapons contemplated by the SDIO as follow-ons to its "phase one" BMD
systems. The survivability of both nearer-term and farther-term BMD systems
would depend heavily on the outcome of a continuing competition in weapons and
countermeasures between the United States and the Soviet Union. Finally,
developing dependable software for advanced BMD will be a formidable challenge
because of the difficulty of testing that software realistically.
I hope you will find the Report useful and informative.
AWL
Enclosure
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP90M00005R000700010005-4
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