NESA REQUEST TO PUBLISH CONTRCT STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01359R000300030041-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2011
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: June 17, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/24: CIA-RDP90G01359R000300030041-9
Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director. for Intelligence
SUBJECT: NESA Request to Publish Contract Study
The attached paper is an unclassified
assessment of the war in Afghanistan completed
under contract to NESA.
ar
DDI
The paper is a well written, rather sophisticated
treatment of the current situation and the
prospects. proposes that we circulate
it to our customers indicating why the study was
done and who did. it. My assumption is that
the study will eventually find its way outside
the circle of consumers, but I don't see that
as a particular problem.
I plan to send the study out unless you
have any problem with my doing so.
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Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
NOTE TO: D/NESA
SUBJECT: Contract Study
DCI has agreed to disseminate this. Why
don't you develop a set of customers and send
copies to them with a note indicating what it
is and what it isn't.
Richard err
Deputy Director for Intelligence
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16 June 1986
NOTE TO: DDI
FROM: EA/DDI
SUBJECT: NESA Request to Distribute an Unclassified
Contract Study on the War in Afghanistan
1. NESA proposes to distribute the attached study to
appropriate consumers around town. Paragraph 5 of
memo explains how the study will be sent around, and that there
is a moderate risk the study's association with the CIA will be
leaked--I'm not sure why this is a problem, the study doesn't
appear to say anything startling. Overall the study concludes:
0 The war is likely to go on for some years to come.
0 Soviets are making only slow gains in Afghanistan.
? Moscow is not likely to reduce its commitment to the
fighting and its military tactics are becoming better
suited to Afghan conditions.
? The resistance is still holding its own in most parts of
the country and would continue fighting even if cut off
from outside assistance.
? Soviets probably see pressure on Pakistan--cross-border
raids and tribal agitation--as best means of concluding
a negotiated settlement in Moscow's favor.
? As long as Zia stays in
power, Pakistan is not likely to
compromise its demand for a Soviet pullout from
Afghanistan.
If you okay the distribution of the study, I'll get back
25X1
25X1
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LUNr' 1 Ut NTIAL
v24gr-S6
DD I -
12 June 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
Director, Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis
SUBJECT: CIA Distribution of Independent
Assessment on the War in Afghanistan
1. Unless you object, NESA proposes to distribute the
attached study, which is an unclassified and independently
produced estimate on Afghanistan widely within the intelligence
and policy communitities.
Division contracted with the
to do the study as an a ort to
check our analysis and to solicit fresh views. assembled 25X1
a team of experts on Afghanistan, Soviet political an military
affairs, Pakistan, insurgency, and military matters in general.
Some of these experts had worked in the DDI or in the old office
of National Estimates and were familiar with the estimative
process.
3. In an effort to mimic the estimate process, a draft of
the Orkand study was reviewed for substance in a two day session
with a panel of outside experts.
4. The study was based solely on unclassified
information. NESA believes the study is thorough and well-
reasoned, and would make a useful contribution to policymaker and
analyst deliberations. Differences among the authors/experts,
including differences on key judgments, are spelled out in the
study. NESA officers who participated in the outside experts'
review--as observers--do not believe the authors' basic judgments
would have been materially altered if they had had access to
classified data.
Our South Asia 25X1
CONFIDENTIAL
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I.-UNk"11)ENTIAL
SUBJECT: CIA Distribution of Independent Assessment
on the War in Afghanistan
5. We will send consumers a confidential note saying that
association of the study with the intelligence community is
considered classified. There is probably a moderate risk of a
leak about the study and the association with CIA.
2
CONFIDENTIAL
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/08/24: CIA-RDP90GO1359R000300030041-9
THE SOVIETS IN AFGHANISTAN: ADAPTING,
REAPPRAISING, AND SETTLING IN
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