LETTER TO ELIZABETH G. WEYMOUTH FROM ROBERT M. GATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01353R001900060004-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2012
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: March 2, 1988
• Content Type: LETTER

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP90G01353RO01900060004-6
The Dcputy Dircctor of Central Intclligcncc
Wjsh nihon. D. C. 20505
STAT
Dear Lally:
Thanks for sending me a copy of your Outlook piece
on Afghanistan. I read it when it first came out and
thought it a fine report. I note in this morning's
Post that Bill Buckley cites it favorably and quotes
extensively from it.
It was insightful of you to visit China. I personally
believe the Chinese element plays a much larger part in
Soviet calculations with respect to Afghanistan than has
been noted in our press.
Again, thanks for sending it along.
STAT
Regards,
DISTRIBUTION:
0 - Addressee
1 D'/PAO att. j'
1 - DDCI Chrono (w/inc., att.)
(w/inc., att.)
P3o,y --Jr
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP90G01353RO01900060004-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP90G01353RO01900060004-6
DALLAS COUNCIL ON WORLD AFFAIRS
19 JANUARY 1988
WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SOVIET UNION
BY ROBERT M. GATES
DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
INTRODUCTION
THE SELECTION OF MIKHAIL GORBACHEV AS GENERAL SECRETARY IN
THE SPRING OF 1985 SIGNALED THE POLITBURO'S RECOGNITION THAT
THE SOVIET UNION WAS IN DEEP TROUBLE -- ESPECIALLY ECONOMICALLY
AND SPIRITUALLY -- TROUBLE THAT THEY RECOGNIZED WOULD SOON
BEGIN TO HAVE REAL EFFECT ON MILITARY POWER AND THEIR POSITION
IN THE WORLD. DESPITE ENORMOUS RAW ECONOMIC POWER AND
RESOURCES, INCLUDING A $2 TRILLION A YEAR GNP, THE SOVIET
LEADERSHIP BY THE MID-1980S CONFRONTED A STEADILY WIDENING GAP
WITH THE WEST AND JAPAN -- ECONOMICALLY, TECHNOLOGICALLY AND IN
VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS OF THE QUALITY OF LIFE.
AS A RESULT OF THESE TRENDS, THE POLITBURO RECOGNIZED THAT
THE SOVIET UNION COULD NO LONGER RISK THE SUSPENDED ANIMATION
OF THE BREZHNEV YEARS, AND COALESCED AROUND AN IMAGINATIVE AND
VIGOROUS LEADER WHOM THEY HOPED COULD REVITALIZE THE COUNTRY
WITHOUT ALTERING THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE SOVIET STATE OR
COMMUNIST PARTY.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP90G01353RO01900060004-6
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP90GO1353R001900060004-6
xbctooi~;tonioSt
ELIZABETH (LALLY) G. WEYMOUTH
')ONTRIBUTINO EDITOR
WASHINGTON POST
21 EA"T 79TH STRIERT
Naw YoRx 10021
BSS.-S ~3- S lRti a.
On Leaving
Really Plan
-mmentary and opinion
des 1\'l ost;uw
Afghanistan?
By Lally Weymouth
SLAMABAD, Pakistan-"I have never seen a test
case like this," says french diplomat Jean-Francois
Deniau of the proposed Soviet pullout from Afghan-
istan. "It's the only way we can see if Gorbachev can do
what he says. It's so important for freedom and for
hope. It's like D-Day .... We can't accept that a ques-
tion like this will receive a false solution."
A real solution, says the French special envoy on Af-
ghanistan, would be the complete withdrawal of Soviet
troops and the creation of a truly' independent coun-
try-as friendly with Pakistan as with the Soviet Union.
The French diplomat is asking the right questions: Is
Mikhail -Gorbachev's announcement that the Soviets
will withdraw from Afghanistan-trumpeted around the
ld this month-tor real?
wor
Does Moscow plan a "real so-
lution," or just a cosmetic one
that maintains a Soviet proxy
government in Kabul? And will
the Reagan administration,
anxious for a foreign-policy suc-
cess, accept a false solution?
Answers to these question
could begin to surface tomor-
row, as Secretary of State
George P. Shultz holds talks in
Moscow on Afghanistan. Con-
servatives worry that he may
accept a deal that would halt U.S. aid to the mujahed-
din at the start of a 10-month period of promised Soviet
troop withdrawal. Such a deal, made without the par-
ticipation of the Afghan resistance fighters who waged
the war, could well collapse-with the resistance fight-
ing on and Afghanistan, becoming a second Lebanon.
A clear picture of what's at stake in the current dip-
lomatic.debate over Afghanistan emerges from conver-
sations with some of the key players-in the Soviet
Union, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China. What comes
through above all is a sense of uncertainty about what
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP90GO1353R001900060004-6