RESPONSE TO WHITE HOUSE QUERY REGARDING WORK ON AIDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 1, 2012
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: March 17, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02
: CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
a
THE FOLLOWING DOCUMENTS
ARE ATTACHED:
(Please do not remove)
osTP 3,066?5)
1h1 so/ oorx 'Ff?
SUBJECT:
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02
: CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
?
ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Letter to Thomas P. Rona
FROM:
Acting Director of Global Issues
3G00 HQS
EXTENSION
NO.
DATE 16 March 1988
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
DDI
7E44 HQS
2.
Ex Registry
7E12 HQS
3.
DDCI
7D6011 HQS
4.
8 MA
1988
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
DCI
EXEC
REG
It U.S. Government Printing Office: l985-494-d,9156
F?1"4 610 usloirgr
1-79
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9 25X1
? Din UlUU0A 00
MEMORANDUM FOR:
VIA:
FROM:
17 MAR 1988
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director for Intelligenc41"
Acting Director of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Response to White House Ouery Regarding
WOrk on AIDS
1. Action Requested: You sign the attached letter to
Thomas P. Rona, Deputy Director of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President.
2. BackgroUnd: On 1 March Mr. Rona wrote with a query
about the Agency's work on the AIDS pandemic. The attached
letter details the analytic work accomplished and in process in
the NIC and DI and discusses the Agency's and Intelligence
Community's involvement in a recently-initiated modeling
effort. We have referred Mr. Rona to D/OCI for future questions
of an analytic nature and to D/ORD for questions regarding the
modeling project.
Attachment:
As stated
CECRET
an Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
25X1
25X1
25X1
STAT
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9 25X1
?
Washington.D.C.20505
118 MAR 1988
Mr. Thomas P. Rona
Deputy Director
Office of Science and Technology Policy
Washington, D.C. 20506
Dear Mr. Rona:
Thank you for your inquiry of 1 March concerning the status
of Agency efforts regarding AIDS. We believe AIDS poses a range
of political and economic implications for US security, and we
have devoted an increasing amount of resources to the problem
during the past few years. In particular, we have launched
several projects that by late 1989 should substantially enhance
our quantitative as well as qualitative analysis of the AIDS
problem.
Our analysis to date has focused on identifying fundamental
intelligence questions posed by the AIDS pandemic. In this sense
we have oriented our research toward assessing the general
political, economic and military problems that the further spread
of the disease could pose, both within specific countries and
internationally. Thus far we have:
o Produced a Special National Intelligence Estimate on the
broad epidemiological, economic and political
implications for sub-Saharan Africa, the region hardest
hit by AIDS thus far.
o Drafted a larger intelligence analysis, to be published
this spring, that outlines the pandemic's possible
impact worldwide--including implications for economic
growth, political stability, and diplomatic and trade
tensions--and that surveys current foreign government
policies to deal with the disease.
o Launched more detailed studies of potential AIDS
implications for specific regions, including the Near
East, Western Europe, and the Soviet Union. The latter
effort also examines the Soviet AIDS disinformation
campaign against the United States.
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9 25X1
Mr. Thomas P. Rona
o Provided briefings on these results and our longer-range
AIDS research plans to several US Government agencies
and officials--including State Department, Export-Import
Bank, the Surgeon General, and the Chairman of the
President's Commission on AIDS.
o Established intelligence collection guidance on AIDS for
the Intelligence Community.,
Recently we have also been involved in efforts to create an
AIDS modeling and data base capability that we expect to begin
bearing fruit by 1989. The project, supported by the Intelligence
Community through the Agency's Office of Research and Development,
will combine the resources of the Community, the Bureau of the
Census, and the Agency for International Development (USAID).
Within the next year the project will:
o Develop an epidemiological model of AIDS transmission
that is oriented toward foreign, rather than US,
experience with the disease.
o Create a demographic projections model that will be
incorporated into the AIDS transmission model.
o Establish an unclassified data base of AIDS-related
variables for a limited number of industrial countries;
these data ultimately will be supplemented by a Third
World country data base being developed separately by
USAID.
We expect to have the transmission/demographic model validated
and applied to a handful of key industrial and Third World
countries by the end of CY 1989. Additional countries will be
modeled as intelligence needs require.
We believe the modeling effort--built from the ground up
with intelligence needs in mind--will enhance our overall ability
to provide policymakers with realistic assessments of the AIDS
problem. Although cost considerations will preclude modeling a
large number of countries in the short run, we will be able to
attempt more rigorous estimates of the disease's spread in the
hardest hit countries and more accurately assess its likely
impact on key segments of those societies. This capability, when
combined with classified intelligence information, would clearly
strengthen our ongoing analysis of potential political and
economic impacts, as well as help us address questions regarding
the effectiveness of specific AIDS prevention strategies.
2
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved fo-r-ReTease 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9 25X1
Mr. Thomas P. Rona
Indirectly, the modeling and data base effort should also improve
our qualitative evaluation of the relative vulnerability of
countries currently less affected
increase in HIV incidence.
by the disease
to an eventual
25X1
I welcome your interest
in this important
research. Should
you require further information
on our research, please contact
Director
of Global Issues, on questions
25X1
concerning our analytical efforts,
and Director
25X1
of the Office of Research and
Development, on the data base and
25X1
modeling project.
Sincerely,
Deputy Direc
3
SECRET
ort
of Ce
es
1 Intelligence
1. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
STAT
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9 25X1
DDI/OGI/ECD,
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee
1 - DDCI
1 - Ex Registry
1 - Ex Secretary
1 - DI Registry
1 - C/NIC
1 - D/ORD
1 - D/OGI
2 - OGI/ECD
(16 March 88) STAT
4
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
, . \ , k... --pit. ',9 - ,
I, 0
. N \>> , \ N 5.?
? 0,-0 4,,i_
\
0
\?(9
?
Y \>>
0
'. 0 > ?>-
-/- 0
v)
,-,
-
TO:
EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
ROUTING SLIP
ACTION
INFO
DATE I INITIAL
1 DCI
2 DDCI
3 EXDIR
4 D/ICS
DDI
6 DDA
7 DDO
8 DDS&T
St-Chm/NIC
10 GC
11 IG
12 Compt
13 D/OCA
14 D/PAO
ERS
16
D/Ex Staff
17
D/OGI /DI
X
18
19
.
20
21
22
SUSPENSE
Data
Remarks
Executive Secretary
4 Mar '88
Date
3637 (lcom
1.= Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
isionstammliminm
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
0 Ms) ri E. I
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY :POLICY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506
March 1, 1988
Dear Mr. Gates:
-OSTP 883002(LS)
Copy of 3
(S) As you are aware, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
(AIDS) is not only an-urgent domestic issue but involves
foreign policy and implications for national security. The
United States Government requires a solid base of information
on the incidence of the disease and the prevalence of the
virus worldwide for making decisions. I anticipate a need
by OSTP and other Government agencies, such as the Departments
of State and Defense, for finished intelligence based on
rigorous and systematic analysis. In particular, we anticipate
interest in reports and finished analyses on: projections of
the number of AIDS cases and fatalities in foreign countries
over the next five to ten years; the anticipated impact of
AIDS on demographic trends; AIDS' possible impact on political
stability of key Third World governments and, following
thereon, the availability of strategic minerals; the implica-
tions for foreign military capabilities; and the responses of
foreign governments to the AIDS epidemic, including the
progress of vaccine development and treatment programs in
other countries.
(S) Our most immediate need is for reliable information on
the extent of the epidemic worldwide--the number of AIDS
cases and levels of HIV infection. Unfortunately, the United
States Government will not be able to rely totally on openly
published statistics such as those by the World Health Organiz-
ation. It appears that many countries are suppressing or
underreporting such information out of concern for domestic
and international reactions. Thus, intelligence agencies
such as your own have an important role to play in filling
the gaps in our knowledge of the international dimensions of
the epidemic through expert collection efforts and analysis.
(S) I have learned of initial efforts by the intelligence
agencies to address the AIDS issue, including a research and
development proposal for a data base and model. This data
would also provide a valuable contribution to understanding
the epidemiology of AIDS in the United States. Recently,
the President directed the development of advanced scientific
models to estimate prevalence and rates of AIDS spread as
well as to guide future data collection. This is a very
DECLASSIFY ON: OADR
srripr-T
1. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
SECRET
2
important effort whose success will depend equally on the
quality of information available and the application of
innovative modeling capabilities. Any information gleaned
abroad which can shed light on the dynamics of the spread of
HIV is very important to the U.S. program.
(U) We would appreciate being kept up to date on your efforts.
Sincerely,
Thomas P. Rona
Deputy Director
The Honorable Robert M. Gates
Deputy Director
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, DC 20505
SFr, P FT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02 : CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02
: CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/10/02
: CIA-RDP90G01353R001500210017-9