INF TREATY VERIFICATION ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G00152R000600760016-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: June 24, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for Intelligen
FROM: Douglas J. MacEachin
Director of Soviet Analysis
SUBJECT: INF Treaty Verification Assessment
1. Action. That you consider the recommendation below.
2. Background. I am i n basic agreement with the points tha
made to you in his 19 June memo on the subject assessment. SUVA has
seen this document many times and has commented extensively on it. While we
have had substantive differences with the subject draft, I believe the main
problem is in the process--that is, having the DCI commit himself to a
verification assessment while the Intelligence Community is still in the
of producing a national estimate of its monitoring capabilities
nro_cess By doing so, we are prejudging the outcome and givi
assent to a document that is likely to become a surrogate monitoring
assessment. While the Intelligence Community does produce ad hoc monitoring
assessments on a regular basis, the preferred approach in this case would be
to have an NIE on monitoring upon which a verification assessment could be
based.
3. Recommendation. In view of the foregoing, I recommend that:
-- the INF Treaty Verification Assessment not be signed at this time
Douglas J. MacEachin
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be completed as quickly as possible. I am willing to
commit to the NIO/SP the resources necessary to accomplish this
task.
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C'R ET/I
ACIS - 1384/87
19 June 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM :
Chief, Arms Control Intelligence Staff
SUBJECT: INF Treaty Verification Assessment Statement
1. The attached draft interim statement i for your information only. I
do not recommend signature at this time.
2. For background, you recall that you signed a note with Ken Adelman
(Attachment A) on the desirability to issue joint verification assessments.
We started this two months ago, following the Terms of Reference provided for
in the joint Casey-Adelman letter of 1985 (Attachment B; see paperclip). ACDA
did not want to include a section on "military risks" and "safeguards" but,
instead, wanted this interim statement on basically monitoring issues (but
which they call "verifiability") so that it could at least say the process is
underway.
3. Ken Adelman is very eager for you to co-sign this with him as soon as
possible.
4. We have tried to steer this paper in a direction which would allow
you to co-sign it, should you choose to do so. The paper, at the moment, is
correct as far as it goes, but is seen by some (especially SOYA) as dwelling
on cheating scenarios and those areas where we have monitoring weaknesses.
(NIO/SP, however, agrees with the Director of ACDA's bottom line assessment of
a three or four out of ten judgment for the treaty.) ACDA, however, is
writing the paper to determine how well we can detect Soviet cheating.
Therefore, they do not think it is unbalanced.
5. By signing this paper with Ken Adelman, you would, in effect, be
signing a monitoring paper jointly with ACDA. The draft monitoring NIE
deals with some of these subjects but has not yet been circulated for review,
let alone agreed to by analysts. This has made our task especially
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SECRET
6. I am showing this paper to you now so that you can be aware of its
contents, its context, and its flaws. I believe that your decision to sign
will be based on the relationship you want to have with the Director of
ACDA. If you choose to sign it, I want to ensure that the paper you sign is
balanced, correct, and will have the least chance to come back and haunt us.
I think we may be at that point in this paper in about a week.
7. In any case, we must make it clear to Ken that this is neither a
substitute for the rigorous monitoring work in the draft NIE or for the
verification assessment that you and Bill Casey wanted to see done. We would
benefit from any comments which you might have at this time.
Attachments:
As stated
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4