18 JUNE SSCI HEARING ON INTELLIGENCE FOR REGIONAL SECURITY POLICY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B01390R000500630022-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: June 10, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

STAT
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A FORWARD LOOK AT FOREIGN POLICY ADDRESS BY THE HONORABLE GEORGE P.
SHULTZ SECRETARY OF STATE BEFORE THE LOS ANGELES WORLD AFFAIRS COUNCIL LOS
ANGELES, CALIFORNIA October 19, 1984.
AUTHOR/SPEAKER: Shultz, George P.
United States Department of State
PUBLICATION DATE: 841018
Department of State Press Release; No. 231
My message today is simple and straightforward: The next four years
have the potential to be an era of unparalleled opportunity, creativity,
and achievement in American foreign policy.
There are two fundamental reasons why: First, I see a new national
consensus emerging here at home; and second, the agenda before us holds
great promise for positive accomplishments abroad.
For much of the last fifteen years, American society has been deeply
divided over foreign policy. This period of bitter division, I believe, is
coming to an end.
We all know that Vietnam took its toll on what used to be called the
postwar consensus on foreign policy. Our two political parties still
express very divergent views on international issues. But the American
people no longer are as divided as that suggests -- or as they once were.
Just as President Reagan has reshaped the national discussion of
government's role in our economic life, so too in foreign policy, there is
a growing majority behind some basic truths: realism about the Soviet
Union, appreciation of the need for a strong defense, solidarity with
allies and friends, and willingness to engage our adversaries in serious
efforts to solve political problems, reduce arms, and lessen the risk of
war. Most important, there is a new patriotism, a new pride in our country,
a new faith in its capacity to do good.
Restoring the people's confidence in American leadership has been
perhaps the President's most important goal in foreign policy. Yes, we have
rebuilt our military strength; yes, we have put our economy back on the
path of sustained growth without inflation; yes, we have conducted a
vigorous diplomacy to help solve international problems. But these
achievements reflect and reinforce something even more fundamental: our
people's renewed self-confidence about their country's role and future in
the world. The United States is a very different country than it was five
or ten years ago -- and our allies and our adversaries both know it.
And we are engaged for the long term. Foreign policy is not just a
day-to-day enterprise.
The headlines provide a daily drama, but effective policy requires a
vision of the future, a sense of strategy, consistency, and perseverance,
and the results can only be judged over time. Our well-being as a country
depends not on this or that episode or meeting or agreement. It depends
rather on the structural conditions of the international system that help
determine whether we are fundamentally secure, whether the world economy is
sound, and whether the forces of freedom and democracy are gaining ground.
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In the last four years, this country has been rebuilding and restoring
its strategic position in the world for the long term. And we have launched
a patient and realistic diplomacy that promises long-term results. That is
why I believe the foreign policy agenda for the coming years is filled with
opportunities. It is an agenda on which the American people can unite,
because it accords with our highest ideals. It is an agenda that can
reinforce the national unity that is itself my most important reason for
optimism about the future.
It is an agenda that starts in our own neighborhood. Some say good
fences make good neighbors. I say: To have good friends, one must be a good
friend. That accounts for the unprecedented attention we have devoted to
our relations with Canada and Mexico.
I spent the first two days of this week in Toronto meeting with Canadian
External Affairs Minister Joe Clark, in accord with our agreement with
Canada to hold at least four such meetings each year. With Mexican Foreign
Minister Sepulveda I have met twelve times in the past eighteen months,
most recently in Mexico just last week. Mexico and Canada were the first
countries on our agenda when we came into office and we will continue these
regular encounters with firm friends. They have strengthened our relations.
Let me now review our global agenda for the coming years: the great
issues of global security; the need to resolve regional conflicts; the task
of reinvigorating the international economy; and a new range of critical
challenges that the headlines rarely mention.
East-West Relations and Arms Control
I will start with East-West relations because of their obvious
importance. There can be little satisfaction or comfort in foreign policy
progress on other issues unless the U.S.-Soviet relationship is soundly
managed. The meetings with First Deputy Prime Minister Gromyko last month
indicated a Soviet willingness to consider a renewed dialogue aimed at
easing tensions.
For our part, the United States is ready for a major effort in the
coming months and years. And the last four years have put the building
blocks in place for a promising and productive second Reagan term.
The Reagan Administration, with Congressional support, has launched a
major effort to rebuild our military defenses. For too long, there had been
the perception -- and the reality -- of a global military balance shifting
in favor of the Soviet Union. This trend weakened our foreign policy. Our
modernization programs still have a long way to go, but today we face the
future stronger and more secure. We are better able to deter challenges, or
to meet them. Future Presidents, facing a potential crisis anywhere in the
world, will thank their lucky stars that Ronald Reagan has given them the
tools to defend American interests.
Clearly the Soviet leaders were more comfortable with the earlier trend,
confident that the "correlation of forces" was shifting in their favor. A
more vigorous and self-confident American posture in the world poses
problems for them. The democracies are politically united and recovering
economically, and the Soviets have suffered a number of setbacks: Their
political warfare against NATO deployment of intermediate-range nuclear
forces in Europe was a failure.
Their attack on the Korean airliner brought universal condemnation.
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Their Afghanistan invasion has met with tough, unyielding resistance.
Poland has raised ominous questions about the viability of their Eastern
European empire. Their attempt to repair relations with China has gone
flat. In Southern Africa and in the Caribbean basin, their clients are on
the defensive. At home, they face deep economic difficulties and leadership
uncertainties.
The Soviets' recent reluctance to engage with us is perhaps a symptom of
these frustrations. But inevitably there will be an adjustment to the new7*xre
willing to work seriously toward a more constructive relationship with the
Soviet Union. We are patient, and we are prepared.
Arms reduction is a top priority on our agenda. As the President put it,
we are "determined to achieve real arms control -- reliable agreements that
will stand the test of time, not cosmetic agreements that raise
expectations only to have hopes cruelly dashed." Therefore, we do not seek
merely to freeze the present level of military competition with all its
imbalances and instabilities. We are determined to achieve real,
substantial, verifiable reductions in the most destabilizing strategic
systems as well as in intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Because the strategic forces of the two sides are differently
structured, we are prepared to be flexible and to negotiate tradeoffs
between areas of differing interest and advantage.
When the Soviets last June invited us to begin talks on limiting what
they call the "militarization of space," we quickly accepted. We were
ready, without preconditions, to talk about what they wanted to talk about.
Unfortunately, they then sought to extract concessions from us before the
talks began. These issues are important and they deserve a US-Soviet
dialogue. Both offensive and defensive weapons can go through space; and
our priority has been to get the competition in offensive strategic weapons
under control. There is no shortage of important new issues to address. We
stand ready to go to Vienna or elsewhere anytime the Soviets are ready, and
to do so without any preconditions about the substance of the agenda.
Beyond the issue of space, our agenda includes a range of other vital
arms control initiatives: a ban on chemical weapons; negotiations on mutual
and balanced reduction of conventional forces in Europe; nuclear
non-proliferation; and the measures of confidence-building and non-use of
force being discussed at the Stockholm Conference on Disarmament in Europe.
We prefer the path of negotiation and we are capable of defending our
interests. All across the agenda, the Soviets will find us a serious
interlocutor. If the Soviets are ready to reciprocate, the coming years
could be a most productive period in US-Soviet relations and see a positive
contribution to security and stability for everyone.
Strengthening Our Alliances and Friendships
We are well positioned for a new phase of East-West diplomacy because
our strength is buttressed by a new sense of vitality and common purpose
among the industrial democracies.
The failure of the Soviet campaign against NATO missile deployments was
a tribute to Alliance solidarity. So too was the unprecedented joint
statement on security issued last year at the Williamsburg Economic Summit,
which saw Japan, for the first time, join as a partner in the security
deliberations of the democratic world. This past June, the harmony of views
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among the London Summit partners extended beyond economic and financial
issues to East-West relations, terrorism, and other global security
concerns.
The agenda for the future is to address, in the same spirit, the
problems that remain in Alliance relations. We can look forward to a new
and creative period in NATO under the guidance of Lord Carrington, the new
Secretary-General. It is time for our Alliance to look again at the task of
modernizing conventional defenses, for this can raise the nuclear threshold
and reduce reliance on nuclear weapons. As sovereign nations, we allies
have our differences on economic issues, East-West trade, levels of defense
spending, and some problems outside the NATO area. But we are bound
together by our overriding common interest in resolving these differences
and strengthening our cooperation.
There is one striking success of the past couple of years that gets
little publicity and therefore may be virtually unknown to the American
people. We have begun to build a network of new ties with our friends in
Asia -- relationships that could well prove to be one
building blocks of global prosperity and progress in
a decade after Vietnam, the United States has
position in Asia. Our alliances in East Asia
friendships there are remarkably promising. This
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In the past four years, our total trade with Asia and the Pacific region
has been greater than with any other region and is expanding at an
accelerating rate.
With Japan, we have made progress in resolving tough economic issues,
largely because both countries recognize the overriding political
importance of our partnership. ASEAN -- the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations -- has become one of the world's most impressive examples of
economic development and regional cooperation. Chinese Premier Zhao's visit
to Washington and the President's trip to Beijing have put our relationship
with China on a smoother, more pragmatic track. Our China policy shows that
the United States can maintain mutually beneficial relations with a society
that is ideologically very different from ours. It is an attitude we would
be happy to apply to the Soviet attitudes and policy permit it.
Our ties to Asia are not at the expense of our ties to Europe or the
Americas, but they do offer, in my view, a unique and attractive vision of
the future. The free economies of East and Southeast Asia are a model of
economic progress from which other developing nations can learn.
Today a sense of Pacific community is emerging, with the potential for
greater collaboration among many nations with an extraordinary diversity of
cultures, races, and political systems.
Certainly this is not as institutionalized as our ties with Europe, but
there is an expanding practice of consultation, a developing sense of
common interest, and an exciting vision of the future. We may well be at
the threshold of a new era in international relations in the Pacific Basin.
Promoting Peaceful Settlement of Regional Conflicts
If the past is any guide, world peace in future years is likely to be
challenged by local and regional conflicts in the Third World -- conflicts
that take innocent lives, sap economic development, and retard human
progress. The democracies have a strategic interest in not allowing such
conflicts to be exploited by our adversaries. We have the same interest in
helping resolve or contain these conflicts and in helping build a durable
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foundation for regional peace and economic advance.
The nuclear equilibrium has successfully deterred World War III, but it
also tends to free our adversaries to take risks in local challenges to our
interests around the globe. In the wake of Vietnam, as America looked
mostly inward, the Soviet Union and its surrogates exploited many local
conflicts to expand their influence. Today, Soviet adventurism no longer
goes unchallenged. There have been no new Afghanistans, Angolas, or
Nicaraguas on this Administration's watch. It is up to us to be vigilant
and strong to ensure that this remains the case.
Freedom is still in the balance in much of the world. But today the
prospects for long-term political independence and regional stability in
the developing world may be better than at any time since the end of the
colonial era.
Central America is a critical testing ground. Following generations of
oligarchic rule, the future will belong either to the advocates of peaceful
democratic change or to the forces of revolutionary violence. The outcome
will directly affect our own national security and the peace and progress
of the hemisphere.
Those people today who claim that the United States is relying on a
policy of military pressure while refusing to negotiate do not know -- or
do not want to know -- what is really going on in Central America. Our
policy has been to promote democracy, reform, and freedom; to support
economic development; to help provide a security shield against those who
seek to spread tyranny by force; and to support dialogue and negotiation
both within and among the countries of the region.
The United States has played and is playing a key role in all these most
significant efforts. We have provided critical military and economic help
to the forces of democracy in El Salvador. We admire the democratic
elements in Nicaragua who cannot accept the Sandinistas' betrayal of their
revolution and export of violence. By giving heart to those who want
freedom and justice, we have helped build the stable foundation from which
negotiations have become possible.
Our policy is beginning to work. It will succeed if we stick with it.
I have just returned from Central America and I can tell you that some
far-reaching developments are underway. President Duarte of El Salvador
took a bold step toward national reconciliation with his dramatic journey,
unarmed, to talk with guerrilla leaders about peace. The Joint Communique
agreed to at La Palma on Monday inaugurated a process that gives the
Salvadoran people their first hope in years that peace could prove possible
in a democratic framework. President Duarte's drive for peace and his
election last spring set standards that Nicaragua's Sandinistas, who are
refusing to allow open and competitive elections, would do well to follow.
Some progress is also being made in the wider regional negotiations. The
latest Contadora draft treaty represents a step forward; the Central
American countries most directly affected are working intensively to
perfect it, to ensure that it fulfills its promise as a framework for
regional peace. My trip to Nicaragua last June was followed by Ambassador
Harry Shlaudeman's continuing negotiations with the Nicaraguans to advance
the Contadora process. And most recently we have intensified our diplomacy
with our friends in Mexico, Central America and Europe.
We have no illusions about Communist aims or methods, and we must show
staying power if these diplomatic efforts are to succeed. If we succeed --
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and today there is fresh hope -- Central America will enjoy a future of
peace, security, economic advance, reconciliation, and spreading democracy.
Today, Central America presents one of the most promising areas for
significant progress in the period ahead.
In Southern Africa, justice and stability require that apartheid --
which, as President Reagan said, is "repugnant" to us and our values --
must be replaced by an equitable political and economic system that truly
represents all the people of South Africa.
The key to peace in southern Africa more generally is a settlement that
will bring independence to Africa's last colony, Namibia, and remove Cuban
troops from Angola.
Working with our key allies, with the key neighboring states in the
region, and with South Africa, our patient diplomacy has helped resolve
most of the contentious issues that stand in the way of a Namibia solution
under United Nations auspices. Such an achievement will end an ugly
colonial war, reduce opportunities for Soviet penetration, and enhance
African and international security. Here again, a long-festering conflict
now shows a glimmer of hope, thanks in considerable part to our diplomatic
efforts.
In Southeast Asia, we have supported the proposal put forward by ASEAN
for a negotiated solution to the Cambodian problem. That proposal is based
on the restoration of Cambodia's sovereignty and the right of its people to
choose their own government, free of Vietnamese occupation. It is the only
sound and realistic framework for a solution, and we will continue to
support it. On the Korean peninsula, we strongly back the
confidence-building measures proposed by the Republic of Korea and the
United Nations Command. We also endorse and encourage the active diplomacy
led by the UN Secretary-General to find a diplomatic solution in
Afghanistan and Cyprus.
The area of regional tension to which the United States has devoted the
most attention over the years in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Our commitment
to Israel's security and well-being is ironclad. So is our commitment to
the pursuit of peace. The history of the past decade shows that
negotiations work. The parties in the area must realize there are no
short-cuts: Ill-prepared international conferences, empty Un resolutions,
"litmus tests," military solutions -- these will never substitute for
direct negotiation between the parties, which is the only way that lasting
progress will ever be achieved. Nor is the status quo consistent with
peace. The positions President Reagan set forth in his initiative of
September 1, 1982, remain the most practical and workable approach. It is a
lasting contribution to the settlement of this tragic conflict and to the
effort to gain true peace and security for Israel.
The Iran-Iraq war shows that the Arab-Israeli problem is not the only
source of tension in the Middle East. Far from it. While avoiding direct
American involvement in the Gulf war, we have worked successfully with
other countries to prevent that war from escalating to threaten the overall
stability of the region and to harm the free world's oil lifeline.
In Lebanon, we negotiated the removal of 11,000 Palestinian terrorists
from Beirut in 1982, and in 1983 we negotiated an agreement that would have
ensured the security of Israel's northern border, Israeli withdrawal from
Lebanon, and a restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty. We re proud of that
achievement, and whatever setbacks may come, we will not let up our
efforts.
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And we will not be driven out of the vital region of the Middle East by
acts of terrorism. The United States will continue to prove itself a
reliable security partner to all our friends in the area -- including our
many friends in the Arab world -- against the forces of extremism and
state-supported terrorism.
Today, many cry that terrorist attacks against us are our fault; that
America must change its ways and change its policies. I can tell you that
we will never waver in our support for Israel. We will never cease to
defend our values. And we will never abandon the cause that terrorists seek
to destroy: America's commitment to peace, freedom, and security around the
world.
As President Regan told the UN General Assembly, "in every part of the
world, the United States is similarly engaged in peace diplomacy as an
active player or a strong supporter."
Reinvigorating the International Economic System
The issues of war and peace, of global security and of regional
conflict, represent the traditional agenda of foreign policy. But there are
important additional tasks -- none more important than seeing to the health
of the world economy.
There is no force in the world today doing more to invigorate the global
economic system than the powerful economic recovery we see now in the
United States. The impact of our expansion is both direct and indirect.
Directly, we are importing large amounts from other countries, both the
developed and the developing countries. Those purchases are spreading our
expansion throughout the world by pumping tremendous new resources into the
international economy. U.S. merchandise imports will grow by about 30
percent this year.
Indirectly, we may be contributing even more to the world economy by the
example we have set in shaping up our own economic policies. We have
revised our tax system to create real incentives to work, to save, to
invest, to take risks, to be efficient. We have reduced government
regulation, intervention, and control.
We have opened opportunities for freer competition in transportation,
finance, communication, manufacturing, and distribution. Most important, we
have spread the benefits of our recovery to the working population by
creating new and better job opportunities, reducing inflation to one-third
of its level four years ago, and reducing unemployment by one-third in less
than two years.
This is a dramatic change from the state of the American economy four
years ago. It has captured the attention of the world, and the policies
that have bxDrought it about are becoming understood. It is widely noted that
similar policies are pursued in those parts of the world that have been
enjoying the best economic growth -- most strikingly in the Pacific Basin,
but in other countries as well.
Success inspires emulation. We now find, almost everywhere in the world,
movements to decentralize, to deregulate, to denationalize, to reduce
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rigidity, and to enlarge the scope for individual producers and consumers
to cooperate through markets rather than only through government dictates.
The indirect benefits that may come to the world's economies by following
this example are likely in the long run to surpass by far the direct
benefits they gain in the short run from our own expansion.
Two central issues which have been the focus of our attention, and which
loom prominently among the opportunities for further progress, are:
managing the international debt problem and reinvigorating the global
economy through a more open trading system.
Much progress has been made in managing the debt problem. A lasting
solution lies in three areas: restoring growth in the world economy,
maintaining open trade and investment markets in both developed and
developing countries, and pursuing sound economic policies in the
developing countries so they are in a competitive position to benefit from
the global recovery.
The United States is doing its part. We import about one-third of all
the manuflW.YyPaAorts of the developing countries, and about half of all
their manufactured exports to the industrialized world. In 1982, we
provided more than 35 percent of the nearly $84 billion in financial
resources, public and private, that flowed to developing countries. With
new resources available to the International Monetary Fund, its role as a
catalyst for change and new private debt financing has been strengthened.
The current account deficits of non-OPEC developing countries in 1984
should be about $28 billion, less than half the 1982 high -- largely
reflecting the $26 billion improvement in their trade balance with the
United States.
But there are no short-cuts. Stable long-term expansion in the
developing world will require sound economic policies, freeing up the
market and encouraging private investment. If a country does not pursue
sound economic policies, no amount of outside assistance, and no reform of
the international trading and financial systems, can assure its prosperity.
But if a country manages its own policies wisely, the benefits of those
policies can be increased by well-designed outside assistance and by
effective systems of international trade and finance.
It will be absolutely essential, at the same time, that we maintain and
enhance the openness of the world trading system. Trade is the transmission
belt of prosperity, and attempts to choke off trade by protectionism can
only retard the general recovery and exacerbate the debt problem.
The United States has the most open market in the world, and we have a
President who is philosophically committed to an open trading system.
His recent decision on copper imports was an important step in this
regard; in the steel case he chose a course designed to focus on the
removal of unfair trade practices rather than protectionism. He worked hard
at the London Summit to ensure that the Summit declaration urged formal
movement toward a new round of multilateral negotiations to liberalize
trade. The only effective way to prevent protectionism from destroying a
healthy world recovery is to move rapidly to negotiate a fairer and more
open trading system for all countries.
As global recovery spreads, the benefits for our foreign policy will be
enormous. A restoration of non-inflationary economic expansion will advance
all our political objectives. It will strengthen our allies and friends; it
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will facilitate the strengthening of our collective defenses; it will help
fend off protectionism and ease economic disputes; it will reinforce our
bargaining position in East-West negotiations; it will stimulate progress
in the Third World, denying our adversaries new problem areas to exploit.
It will improve the climate for international cooperation and spread new
confidence in the future of democracy.
New Dimensions of International Cooperation
The agenda for the future also includes new dimensions of international
concern.
A few moments ago, I mentioned terrorism. Terrorism is a threat to which
democratic societies, open and free, are particularly vulnerable. The
growing phenomenon of state support of terrorism is a political weapon
deliberately wielded by despotic and fanatical regimes and their henchman
against the basic values of the Western democracies. The bombing of our
Embassy in Beirut last month, and the many attacks on other Western and
pro-Western targets in Beirut, show that the threat is ever-present. And
last week's cowardly bomb attack in Brighton, England, against Prime
Minister Thatcher and members of her cabinet shows again that the danger is
not confined to the Middle East. Those who wage terrorist warfare against
us are seeking to shake our commitment to our principles, and to alter our
policies of promoting peace, prosperity, and democracy. We will not yield
to blackmail.
It is time for this country to make a broad national commitment to meet
this threat. Congress must give us the resources and the legislative tools
to do the job. We need, and we are getting, the resources to protect our
facilities and personnel abroad. We need new tools of law enforcement.
Sanctions, when exercised in concert with other nations, can help to
isolate, weaken, or punish states that sponsor terrorism against us.
Our law enforcement agencies must continue to perfect their
counter-terrorism techniques and to work with the agencies of friendly
countries, for terrorism is truly an international problem. Our military
and intelligence agencies must be given the capability, the mandate, the
support, and the flexibility to develop the techniques of detection,
deterrence -- and response.
All too often, we find terrorism linked to another problem of great
concern: narcotics. We all know the domestic dimension of the drug problem,
but there is a growing awareness in other countries that it is truly an
international problem to which few are immune. Not only is drug abuse
increasing in other countries, but the corrupting effect of drug
trafficking on political and economic institutions is more and more widely
recognized. Beyond the disturbing links between drug traffickers and
international terrorism, we see certain Communist governments, Cuba and
Nicaragua in our own Hemisphere, using the narcotics trade as a source of
funds to support insurgencies and subversion.
The drug problem is a major concern of our foreign policy. Our strategy
addresses the problem in its international dimension, including controls on
the cultivation, production, and distribution of drugs, curbs on the flow
of profits and the laundering of money, and relief against the impact on
other countries as well as our own. We have reached important agreements
with other countries on crop control, eradication, and interdiction. We
have provided assistance to implement these control agreements, as well as
aid for development and training in law enforcement.
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But it is clear that more needs to be done, on an international as well
as national basis. Worldwide crop production still provides a surplus of
narcotics that greatly exceeds not only American but worldwide demand. Some
countries have not done enough to reduce crop levels. We must promote
cooperation to reduce cultivation further in all producer nations. But we
must also wage a determined campaign against drug use here at home, thereby
sending the message to people in other countries, as well as to their
governments, that we intend to control our own drug abuse problem.
Nuclear non-proliferation is another challenge on our agenda. Like the
story of our prospering relations with Asia and the Pacific, the steady
progress we have been making does not make the headlines.
Today the number of states that have acquired the means to produce
nuclear explosives is far lower than doomsayers predicted twenty years ago,
though the potential dangers to world stability remain exactly as
predicted. The United States is vigorously leading the international effort
to establish a regime of institutional arrangements, legal commitments, and
technological safeguards to control the spread of nuclear weapons
capabilities.
The Reagan Administration has approached the problem with a
sophisticated understanding of its complexities. We see the growing
reliance on peaceful nuclear energy, the security concerns that give rise
to the incentive to seek weapons, and the need for broad multilateral
collaboration among nuclear suppliers. We have made progress in restoring a
relationship of confidence and a reputation for reliability with our
nuclear trading partners; w
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