SENIOR REVIEW PANEL REVIEW OF ESTIMATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90B01370R001501880004-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2009
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: September 17, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

SECRET
The Director ol Central intelligence
Washin{ton. D. C. 20505
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: The-President
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review Qf Estimates
(ZI Z_ `25X1
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative 3'udgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would regard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
Durtng the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
_.; Estimates.compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East, East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Estimate titles.
iam J Casey
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Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90B0l370R001501880004-5
The Director of Central Intelligence
lti:IJi Vin.l). C. ZUSOS
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Vice President
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review of Estimates
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative judgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would regard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
'During the years 1981-84, wee will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and-military, Latin America, Middle-East, fast Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Esj4 mate titles.
Attachments
Casey
Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90B0l370R001501880004-5
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
The Director of Central Intelligence
SLCt:I_ I
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Secretary of State
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review Qf Estimates
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative jbdgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the-Panel said it would re' and two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East,-East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National -Est i to titles.
Attachments
Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
The Director of Centril Intelligence
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review of Estimates
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982.and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative judgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would regard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves. from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates .compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East,-East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Estimate titles.
Attachments
Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
25X1
The Director of Central Intelligence
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Secretary of Defense
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review Qf Estimates
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative judgment.
Overall, as pol::icymaking support, the Panel said it would regard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East, East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Estimate titles.
SECRE 25X1
Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl370R001501880004 5
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
The Director of Central Intelli.;ence
17 September 1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
SUBJECT: Senior Review Panel Review of Estimates
L
9040/5
The Intelligence Community has a Senior Review Panel composed of former
Ambassador to Yugoslavia William Leonhart, retired General William McCaffrey,
former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Willis Armstrong,
and Herbert Rothenberg, a distinguished scientist.
I'd like to share with you its recently completed evaluation of 46
intelligence estimates produced during the first six months of 1982 and those
of 1983. They found that 1982-83 estimative production was of extremely
high quality in forecast validity and policymaker utility.
They further stated that 1982 and 1983 production would--in their
experience--have met most policymaker needs in timeliness, policy issue
relevance, analytical quality, readability, and estimative judgment.
Overall, as policymaking support, the Panel said it would re'ard two-thirds
to three-quarters of the papers as "superior to outstanding," with the
percentage rising as one moves from 1982 to 1983.
They cited one failed estimate, one produced in June of 1982 which
predicted Iran's victory over Iraq.
?..~.~-mss
During the years 1981-84, we will have completed 274 National Intelligence
Estimates compared with 124 during the years 1977-80. I attach a tabulation
indicating the areas in which the increases have been most marked--Soviet
political and military, Latin America, Middle East, East Asia, nuclear
proliferation, global resources, narcotics, and B/C warfare.
In case you want to glance through subjects addressed in estimates over
this period, I also attach a list of National Esfanaje titles.
Attachments
Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BO1370R001501880004-5
DISTRIBUTION (ER 84-9040 thru 84-9040/5)
Origs - To Each Addressee
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDIR
1 - CH/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - SRP
1 - D/OLL (With 4 Extra Copies for Oversight Comte's)
1 - ER File
DCI/17 Sep 84
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 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BO1370R001501880004-5
Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BO1370R001501880004-5
 Approved For Release 2009/06/01: CIA-RDP90BOl 370R001 501880004-5
DIRECTOR bF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
184- 9040 46
17 Septem6er 1984
NOTE FOR: Chuck Briggs
FROM: DCI
LEGISLATIVE LIAISON
I think each Member of the two
Intelligence Committees should get this
information.
You determine whether it should be
mailed or how it should be handled so
that it will get to each of them
individually as they wind up this session.
Wi11iarr---#asey
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