CONGRESS SEEKS RIGHT TO INTELLIGENCE DATA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 93
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 16, 1975
• Content Type: NSPR

Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4
State Dept. review completed
Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4
State-Dept. review completed
Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R
Y(_)i.K jj7-tr7S
1.6 ITOVEflIBEI-i 197
Lr-70n:aross Se eks t 1,6 e nrP Data
.!? ?
d 'C ? would receive the
!By NiCHOLAS M. HORROCN
? $.7eCtal ;c1T1.!e. New -n.6: nn,43.
WASHINGTON. Nov. 15?The
!Senate Select Committee on
fritellieence is preparing- legis-
lation that would for the first
!time.. formally entitle Congress'
to share- national security intel-
iligence . with the ? exec-nal:re
?! hrenc'n.- committee. sources saia
today_ ?
.re. 'Interviews with key Ford Ad-
'-ministration and - intelligence
canciats disclosed that the A ongress
'ministration would not opposektery information Mr. Pi't:e is
this facet of legislative over-wrestling to get in a timely
eight. Moreover, congressional' fashion as the events unfold-
and Administration sources! ed, said one ietelligence
Senior Administration
cials have said that President
Ford does not intend to let
Congress intrude upon ti'
Presidential prerogative to con-
duct foreign affairs end `:.;at:
direction of covert cneraticinsi
is cleerly a function of the.
executive branch. !
Congress already receives
highly secret intelligence infor-
said they. believed such a sys-e source. He was ref-Jr-mg to ? mation on an informal basis,
tem would avoid much of thel the confrontation that has de- : Certain members of the. Senatei
"suspicion," as one source putiveloped between Secretary of and House Armed Seire-ices
..reiceive a. ._ ,daily i:.1:e
,1r
it that had eesulted?in disputesiState Henry A. Kissinger and Committees
over secret executive branch! tr t
ee House Seien: Committee c:leilcraiccle!;'-el:Iliseant'ece
policy. in..?Chile-and? Southeast on Intelligence, headed by Rep- Tlie. appropriation committees'
Asian ' ? ' r - . -. ? '-- ? ... ? resentative Otis G. Pike, Demo- . have also been given_ highly'
"When this. -becomes law, 'crat of Suftoile. -
I
. secret data over the years.
? How System Would Work ABM Controversy Recalled I
- Under the proposal being "In a speech before the Senate,/
prepared by a drafting group ?las( week, Senator Frank,'
of the Senate ..committee, Church; the Idaho ? Democrat"
Congressioaanaleaversight come who beads the Select Commit-
mittee , would. be 'empowered :,tee on Intelligence, cited what
to oraer the 'intelligence agent he saw as the importance of
ties to reoort .on :their know- Congress's receiving Intel-
:ledge of any subject of national ligence data during the con-
security. ' ?troversy of several years ago
"For instance, if a crisis were over the antiballistic-missile de.
rdieveloping in a certain foreign:- tense system,
country," one committee source "The Congressional coalition
said, "the oversight committee against the ABM had to have
could require the intelligence
reliable information to counter-
t act the reams _of data turned.
agencies.' - them an
? ou
o give '
by the =leerysaid.
ne
up-td--date- estimate of what is -Thtis in'orrnation only aye
lahle at one source: the Ceetral
Intelligence Agency.'Through
a'. series of C.I.A. briefings,'
members of Congress were
eh the whole range of informa-
tion:tort the strenerths_and weak-
nesses of the ? ABM system."
.? Mr, Church conterid'Ed: that
C.I.A.- briefings had. enabled:
Congress ?-to strike a ? 'oaianceL-
between this information and
information it : wasn.receiving,
data is eing patterned
upon - from the military and to defeat
provision; of the Atomic Ener-
the antiballistle.-missle defense
gy Act, whici requires the Trier- on the ground that it did not
gy Research and Development provide the protectiOn _ to the
Administration and .the intel- United: States . that" military
ligence agencies to report to leaders asserted it would. . ?
Coeress secret clata in the There le 'euhtle, butericai.
ten.tiriTf nuclear energy. difference hetweerrtne informal
'Airtight Language' briefing of the past ? and the
legislattve proposal- that the
"The language of that section! select. committee Ise e.xpected.,
is airtight," one Senate aide to intreduce.
said, "aced we are preparing, When Congress cart cenpeli
language that wilt do the same inferrnation, thE, framers be.
thing." -lieve., it will bar the political
Senate soLItt-.,Ts said that Ford administration in office from
Administration officials were "filtering the facts we get," as
ceoperating in working out the: one source put it.
details- of the intelligence data They believe that this will
legislation. What Senate ;our- preVent political acirninistra-
ces acknowledge will 'be a lot tions from being able to shape
tougher is whether Congressl the 'facts brought to Congress
can legislate a veto over covert on a foreign policy issue.
intelligence. operations- Under Other activities inciede stud
-
present law the executive ies of pending public issues and
branch is required to report .surveys of public opinion or.
such evert operations to .Con- matters of interest to business.
-gress only a. ter _ne tact.
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going on."
Since this would be the same
information from which tine
President forms foreign policy
moves, Congress would be ill
afar better position to under-
stand and evaluate the Pres-
ident's actions.
The legislative language for
the delovery of intelligence
ART/M.13 A.PFS,..
Approved! Mtraelee?e 20(p06A9UWIV*-01137R000
e ruary
BY MATTHEW
ROTHSCHILD
n Washington's Massachusetts
Avenue, sandwiched between
the flag-waving embassies of
Chile and Canada, stands the
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced In-
ternational Studies. Its sandy, concrete
walls and stiff, rectangular windows mir-
ror.the bland facade of the Brookings In-
stitution across the street_
I visited the School of Advanced In-
ternational Studies?which everyone there
calls SAIS (rhymes with nice)?one cold
and rainy morning last December. A re-
cruiter from the Central Intelligence
Agency was scheduled to interview a dozen
SA.IS students .that day, and I. too, was
eager to talk with them. I wanted to find
out what these students were like, why they
would want to work for the CIA, and how
they could justify their interest in such a
career.
This was no idle concern, for the CIA
is enjoying a remarkable renaissance on
American college campuses. Gone is the
rriilita.nt protest, One is the stigma. "The
view of the Agency is very good. We're
doing very well," says a CIA officer knowl-
edgeable about the recruitment effort. The
officer, who asked that his name not be
used, says the Agency now recruits openly
on 300 campuses. Pay for a graduating
senior typically starts between S17.000 and
S27,000.
"Students seem to be much more re-
sponsive" than they were even five years
ago, and "more are applying. certainly,"
the CIA man says. He attributes this pos-
itive reception, in pan, to an increased level
of patriotism. "I've gotten an awful lot of
that," he says. adding that anti-CIA dem-
onstrations on campus have "dramatically
declined."
The resurgence of the CIA on campus
is the most obvious indication of the at-
titudes characterizing today's students.
Conservatism once again prevails in the
society at large, and the resilience of Amer-
ica's -imperial culture finds expression in
the application forms addressed to Wil-
liam Casey as much as in the jingoist huz-
zahs over the invasion of Grenada.
Outside the SATS recruiting office, I
camped on a three-cushioned couch that
served as the on-deck circle for the appli-
cants. My first interviewee, Michael Peck,
a student in "conflict management," was
reluctant to tell me what had drawn him
to the CIA, but he did offer some general
insights. "I know everyone here who is in-
terviewing," he said. "It's not the James
Bond. John Wayne approach, but a very
pragmatic one, with a little idealism."
Peck was enthusiastic about the re-
sources the Agency offers to the specialist
in foreign affairs. "The possibility to
broaden your area of expertise is what
brings people to this job." he said. "The
CIA guarantees you a total preoccupation
with your interest, and it provides you with
first-hand experience." To this profes-
sional inducement, Peck added a dash of
patriotism. "Take Nathan Hale," he said.
."The guy had a certain commitment to
make, and he made it."
Drawing a sharp distinction between the
analysis side of the CIA, where research is
Conducted. and the operations side, where
the traditional cloak-and-dagger spy work
is performed. Peck said he was interested
only in analysis. He had some problems
with covert action. "If there's any other
way but violence. I'm for it," he said. "De-
fense of .1.rOgAlindsi
Approved For Relftami 4! ?Wert n !r1 3
country, though, I haven't made up my
Our conversation was cut short by the
CIA recruiter, a middle-aged woman with
close-cropped brown hair, wearing a ma-
roon sweater, matching shin-length skirt,
and unpolished blue low-heel shoes two
decades out of fashion. She opened the
door to the interviewing-office, dismissed
one student, and invited Peck in with the
fetching phrase, "Next victim?
I followed the previous victim down a -
couple of flights of stairs to a basement
locker room. As he took off his gray sport
jacket and tie, he explained why he had
signed up to interview with the CIA: "It's
one of the few 'careers directly related to :
the education here.- He was an interna-
tional relations and economics major.
When I asked him about CIA abuses,
this applicant became defensive. "Cer-
tainly things aren't happening the way they ,
were in '73 in Chile or in '54 in Guate-
mala," he said. And even if the Agency
did something he couldn't endorse, that
would not have any bearing on his work.
"You can compartmentalize," he ex-
plained. "If I'm an analyst with them, they
may knock offa Chilean leader, but I didn't
do it. I'm an analyst." He later asked me
not to use his name.
Elizabeth Michels, next in line for an
interview at SATS, also viewed working for
the CIA as a way of pursuing her academic
interest, international economics. "The,
work they do is highly respected." she said.
"It is thorough and highly professional.
That's not a bad sort of agency to be as-
sociated with."
Her admiration for the scholarly rep-
utation of the CIA stemmed in part from
her contact with professors at Georgetown.
University who had worked for the Agency.
iiipp37ilaffilycroctiterio4.the most brilliant peo-
?reign p-IF in the field,' she said. and impressed
-Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-0-11'37-R000
LAWRENCE JOURNAL-WORLD (KS)
11 September 1982
Edittrials
CIA back in demand
25X1 B
100040001-4
Predictably, the figures are secret, and so are the contents of
the recruiting interviews. But the cr,p.g.4?lagglioSar
will say this much: More people thanever are trying to join up.
"Business_is booming," reports Charles E. Jackson,- chief of
recruitment at the agency. "We're seeing more resumes than ,
'vie ever have."
With a tight -job market and new attitudes about the agency,
more and more young people reportedly are looking into
career which many of their older brothers and sisters would
- never have considered. With the Vietnam War and the spate of
student demonstrations across the country no longer the order of
the day, the CIA's recruitment activities are increasingly being:-:L
conducted in the open.
? The agency advertises in newspapers. Like recruiters from
such long-time campus frequenters as Procter & Gamble; its
representatives go from college to college, interviewing
undergraduates and talking about such things as salary, work-
ing conditions and health insurance benefits. About two years
ago the agency published a recruiting booklet.
But even with its new openness, a cloak of mystery still
rounds the CIA, and this is reflected in "Intelligence: The Acme
? of Skill," the booklet published by the agency and used by its
recruiters. The publication is almost, to use a word favored by-.
the intelligence agency itself, a sanitized version of intelligence.
operations. ,j_.; ? ' s?
Although the CIA has received heavy attention for its covert
activities, the subject itself is barely covered the brochure. In-
telligence, according to the booklet, "has less to do with cloaks
and daggers than with the painstaking, generally tedious collec-
tion of facts; analysis of facts, exercise of judgment and quick,
clear evaluation." - -
Interviews are conducted each day in 11 recruitment offices
across the country and in the walk-in office at the agency's head,
quarters near. Washington in Rosslyn, Va.,But despite its active '
recruitment program, the CIA remains 'highly selective in
deciding who it lets into its ranks. ;.
For its career trainees, traditionally the entry-level -profeS-::
sional employees, the agency looks for people in their. 20s to the-
age of 32 with graduate degrees in international affairs: If ap-,
plicants_have lived overseas or have done some international
_traveling, so much the better. Language abilities are another
plus. Applicants with computer science, electronics; economic;-
or enginering backgrounds are also in demand. The starting
? salary; as high as $22,500. , ?
_ - .
ON7Thrur
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Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0001
NEW YORK TIMES
18 FEBRUARY 1982
. ARTICLE APPEARED
ON PAGE
25X1 B
-Dagger Business Edoming,
. By DAVIlYSIIRIBMAN '
' Special WThe limo York Tbzes
WASHINGTON, Feb. 17 --The "fig-
ures are secret. SO are the Contents of
the recruiting interviews. But the Cen-
tral Intelligence AgencY,can say this
much: More :people- than: ever-are
?tryingtojoinup.-?,:;. ? ? ,.:- ?
. "Business is ..'haniiiing," reports
Charles E., Jackson,. chief of recrult4,,ti'i
ment at the agency.- "We're seeing
more resumes than we ever have..." -\?,,y4-1;
47.','-427-'..-_--J4-=3V... ?-?,-,-, '4'4-
ft-z-m!???-;k _11 ,? .....?
'Te--4'..C*-:??:--7,14.;:z.-. _.....-...
0.. 4'....,....' ' "--';' Interviews are conducted each dai2-.
With a tight job market and isiii ai-7Y.:,t, -:: ?1,7,7:4?,.
in the 11 recruitment offices across the
titudes about the agency, more and-- : -.'ir:-
- country and in the walk-in office at the.
more young people are looking into a.?: '.. agency's headquarters near Washing--
career that marn/ of their older broth tonin Rosalyn. Va. But despite its ac. ?
ers and si,sters would never have- cois:.'.., tive recruitment program. the C.I.A. -_
sidered. Andrnow.,rith. the yietnanC,:: remains ererf selective in decidir0
War and the S'ate-of student demon-... : ? who will join its ranks. . - ?. . ]
strationi across the covarstry ended; the -:-.1 . For its carter trainees, traditionally_
C.I-9..'s recruitment activities are in- " . ?. . : . . - . ..-.. ;. _-the .entri-level PlVelsional employ- 1
creasing11/7 being..:_ceoducted- in. the , ' I England and Sir Fr-axicis -Walsing. ees, the agency looks for peoplejri
?Pen- -, ,-', -%,-,??::?????/?? :.,,,-,--?_- ?;.,-...;--..?!...?. i:.;?????-!, - ham who, according to the photo cap..: their 2irs to the age of 32 with graduate-
s The agency-advertises _.1n..newspa-.;7-.,tiOn.. "created an extensive intelli- degrees in international affairs. If ap-7.--, ?
pars. Like recruiters from such long-- gence organization which sent agents plicants have lived o-ferseas or hate-
time campus frequenters as Proctor &- to foreign lands." Later, there is a full- ' - had clone some international travel;:
. ..Gamble, its representatives buzz from page picture of a group of people car- ' ing, so much the better. Language
-college to college. interviewing eager. ,,--,.? rying a giant-size picture of Josef abilities are another plus. Applicants
undergraduates ? and, talking ? about.; Stalin in a street march and the cap- with computer science, electronic ???
such things as salary. working condi-,-.-. , ticn: "In its early years, the Central ? economic or enginerin,g background.; ?
-ticns and. health insurance. benefits. Intelligence Agency's primary con, - are also in demand. The starting sal-
Two yeariago the agency puhlished a -:.i, cern Was with Soviet military- activi- , arf: as high es 122,500. :- -
recruiting hooltlen,:;7, ?,,-_-_-.74.1, 7 ._-r-_-,;1--.tiesandpolitical intentions." ,:.,- ?= : On campuses, the agency's recruit-
?? - - -' - ; --- -,,-,1 ?,,,,..w., Although the agency has received em work_in-the manner traditional' of ,
--- ' -?'-- Still a Cloakof Mystery ? - , ?- ; - ,r? : chattention f ? rt -vi th ti . 1 est bus- - -
, ,-,,,_ mu or its cove act/ - ? e /la ce s arg messes, check--1
But even-with-its new openness, aT: ties, ?? the subject itself is barely coy- ing in with the college plaoement-ditl i
_
cloak of mystery. still surrounds the - .... ezed in the brochure. Intelligence. ac- rector-and making a presentation."-,!
7 C.I A, and this is reflected in.!"Intelli- cording to the booklet, "has less to dia-.: There is almost always a fast-paced-1
? gence: The Aerne Of Skill.", the booklet?. with cloaks and daggers than with the,: slide show. From time to ? time 'an' I
published by the agency and Used by ,- ?painstaking, generally tedious collee- agentortwois int-ochiced. ?,:. ??;???:---.1
: its .recruiters. ate publication is al- tion of facts, analysis of facts; exercise. These days, nearly two decades-
most; to-use a Word favored by the ix..... -.of judgment and quick; clear evalua- from the era of large student protest;
telligenc?e agency itielf, ,-zi _ sanitizek: tion." :,. - -:-.,- '
- i seldom is heard a discouraging word 4,
; version of intelligence operations.---? '. ::-; , Cloaks and daggers excepted; the from demonstrators. "We think those
,-. Beside-the introduction,- for eia.M-:,:, brochure is lavishly illustrated. A pie- days are behind us," said Mr. Jack-7 i
pie, are pictures of. Queen-iFillabeth. f..`,..ture of its headqUarters is inset in a-;-' sal- "We'rp doing very well:" - ? '_ .1
.. ? - - .,.. ...-
---,--.- - -, -e,.. .... -. , _-_-zs, :-,,-., ? .,..,. ..-,...-- , ? - . - ..r.. . -_--..,..;- f;';;L:42 3A-...T4-,1 1' , '.,-, .-CL.: ,.--: ,-,_ : ;1,341 :-:?-?.:t,r..".r. ..'-;_r:i
wide shot of the attack on Pearl Har-'1
bor. There is a picture of a mushroortc?A
c.lcud. And there are pictures of un-:
named C.I.A. employees accompanied
by tnantes like this, from a senior ana4'....
- lyst with the agency: "I believe that-
the analyst is at the center of the intelz
ligence process and, I would like to be?. /
lieve, the most important part of the
intelligence prooess." - ? ?-???-? .?
Interviews Conducted Daily :
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Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R
THE PROGRESSIVE
October 1981
YE SHALL NOT
KNOW ANYTHING
EZZI=I:424="
L44VGLEY , VIRGINIA
"We believe that as much information as
possible about the Central Intelligence
Agency and the Intelligence Community
should be shared with the public." declares ?
the thirty-page document bound. in deep
red covers. The booklet, Intelligence?The
Acme of Skill, includes an "intelligence
glossary" that points out the-difference 'be-
tween "clandestine" and -covert action," a
CIA chronology,- a' question-and-answer ,
Section, and an array of trivia: the CIA
headquarters and grounds cover 219 acres;
"works of art grace the building's entire tirst
floor" (the majority ..being "abstract With
an emphasis on color studies"); there are
"more Ph.D.'s employed by the CIA than ?
by any other Government agency."
The publication's - title comes from a
quote attributed to ?Sun .Tzu, Military
Strategist, China, 400 B.C." which states,'
"To find security- without fighting is the
acme of skill." To further confirm that -in-
telligence is nothing new," other citations
.7--r7,---;"--???? ?
- . k - %- ?
00100040001-4
.-.-",?;.?,`t1,?_?,'..4i'10;4'-?...";_r?i.,-_-0-,--'-':-rr:-...i-,'-
14 ,, ?--? --). ,-.4,-:-.; .---;:-. "......'
-''' kr:',,tik - ? - ,--...".:". '
' ....?3.),..-4--"4--s_u_. i _,..,t._74,-.--,-; -.._ r_v_:....--. -'---_:.:...-..-?,..."-Z-7r.r.r..L... e4LL...4 -?
. ...1 !!?0,,,4..0.116t,l!i.lik.511.:.1111111.11.31;.
:..Z.2:',I,n1M;', 11111i111.1 hill
...14,..i,1,1! :10:111?Iii.bitil......,...,.^-_-:r-,??;57.'?./?-?
1
? ,,,,
.341A, 404.2:;
??
-
-
-
?*.? ,,,, ? , ;It! ??-;A' 2. ?
,t ? - t;',21c
?
. , ?
- ? ',-,-,-7?, ?.iisi:Alif?
.4.1.piiiii,-1,?-,s, ,,'--. --""--" 27 ,.... i,-ii,.- .1,..
3. ?.'iL 11%!ii-;;::,,,,L,,, '?...,??;4-'17,--c- :1'
i iP,,-4,'5:,_:4:#11...i 711:',f'._?: '
WOE WOALC) r1-101 OS
. CIA headivarters at Langley: lowering
include the old testament, Queen Elizabeth
I, and the Thirteenth Century Mongol
leader. Subotai. who "directed his force l; to
spectacular military successes in their inva-
sion of Europe" because he had good spies.
What is perhaps more significant about
The Acme of Skill is that it exists at all. Its
publisher is the CIA itself?the CIA of sun-
nier times when some small efforts to illu-
minate its dark dens were made. Today,
publications of this nature have short shelf
lives; already CIA Director William Casey.
has eliminated the Agency's office of public
affairs, which produced the booklet. In so
doing, he declared, "The time has come for
the blinds . .
the CIA to return to its more traditional,
low-public profile."' Who knoWs what other
thing S the-CIA 'will return to, if indeed it
evWleft them?
The Acme-of Skill notes that a biblical
verse is engraved in Georgia marble in the
central lobby of CIA headquarters: "And
ye shall know the truth and the truth shall
make you free.?John VIII-XXXII." At
this writing, it is unknown whether CIA Llki
rector. Casey has moved in with sand-
blasters.
PRIMACK
(Phil Prim ack is a free-lance writer in Ep.
ping, New Hampshire.)
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Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R0001M4Cio
ARTICLE APPEARED SALES & MARKETING MANAGEMENT
ON PAGE_gi? 17 August 1981
MABILETERSI
?ET CETERA
i:':-.---
?: A little. p.r. never hurt
?
.. anybody?not even- the
CIA. One call to the agen--.
-_, cy's public affairs office
(yes, it has one) will get
. _-%?...?..,.....
you ,a jf,: gloSsy.7;.-s- oklet
T--:,--_, --
entitled, Int011iieticiTh 1
Acme- ,of.-:Sk-ill.:::I.The'Vtitle'l'.."
comes froa quotehy one:
. . . , -
_Stm Tzu, a Chinese mili-:1
: tary-- strategist.-?Whel;lived ----,
.....___ _-_ -,,
around 400 B.C.:and said,
-__ - , ..,,,
: `-fo-find securitywitb out _
_fighting is the.L,Etime !. of
-_)1l,
_
The booklet contains -2S-_,..
' :!;:historY:. of -the-;agencS7;-,--a
, , -
tglossary . of intelligence,?
-
.--,
,-. terms (example:--:-.:"ESpio-:,:_,
nage?Intelligence , activ-
ity. directed toward :=, the.-.
acquisition- off-informer-- -,
"-tion=through -?clandestine--73-
-Meaiii."),- a- breekdown.-Of:
the country's intelligence-
gathering apparatus;-end
'..';nii.t-chT,r1-.nore: Exampl.:
..- . . ?
aseepleOften Ask -sectipri-
Vhat:;lineWers such_, que_W.
tion as -"Who spies for the)
.,_ .
,Central Intel' igence Age&'--1
.
.p? .- ... ---
-_,cy_.:,-;_aria, what is covertA
, .
..ii-:. tion? -,--- -.?, - - - ,-
-izz:1-ncluded in Hae bookletr.I
:. . -
printout - of- ai4cIA-zi
i:41.thikations::,- and :1:rtiaps,5,,
z-available to the publi-Ciuid'..:j
hii-w-Ao': get them:-Ittlists
...,_ - , -,
.' ? .=-. , --,.-.1
:-suchthings as-a wall cha4z,
- of the Hungarian Socialisttd
? Workers Party, and -arti-fl-?j
cles-i.on 'The Bleak., ,Pres--_:_ j
pects-, for Meeting KainPia;_i
i, cheaeFood Needs,7:aind
,71-lybrid Rice Development-
and Seed - Production ',;;.iii .:.
--Chinalf'
? ?_
25X-1B
01-4
i-CIA4'rboOklet_takeA a,pagelor_:two,from:lzisto
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Approved For Release 2#
4, : Mt RD P 9 0-011 37 RO 0 01 0 0 0 0001-4
EXGr2,1(P17.4.);
? Soviet ASTP Effort Wins CIA Approval
Washington?Outlook for successful completion of the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project is
good, the Central Intelligence Agency said last week, because preparations "have
been more extensive and thorough than for any previous Soviet mission."
While calling this assessment "incongruous when compared with recent Soviet
flight history," the CIA said Soviet testing and checkout of the spacecraft and crew
'training set new marks. In addition, the agency said that recent Soviet failures in
launch, docking and reentry would have no effect on the U. S. crew if they were to
reoccur during ASTP.
The CIA study of the Soviet space program was done at the request of Sen. William
Proxmire (D.-Wis.): chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee that oversees the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He released a summary of the study
On the eve of the ASTP launches.
The main advantage the Soviets gained from ASTP las been observation of U. S.
management and operations techniques,- the CIA said. There was some flow of tech- ?
nology to the USSR through ASTP, but future joint missions "would pose more of a
potential for technology drain," the summary said.
The threat of a minor fire in the Soyuz spacecraft?poses "a moderate risk" to the .
Joint mission, the CIA said, and the risk of a major fire is much less likely. '
- The U. S. has a "significant technological lead" over the Soviet Union in a number
of areas, according to the CIA, including:
? Communications.
IN Flight and ground crew training and ground crew proficiency.
N Launch procedures.
IR Ability to make inflight mission changes.
? Space medicine.
The two countries are about equal, the CIA said, in tracking capability, backup sys-
_ terns, life-monitoring systems and environmental safety..
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ON PAGE ata7,At May 1984
425X1Erw
'Israel reported set to pick u
U.S. role with La
By Frank Greve z
hiquirer Washingtor!
--WASHINGTON ? Israel, which has
helped arm and train the United
States' allies in Central America for a
decade, would be able to expand its
military role in the region if US. aid
were cut back, according to internal
tional arms authorities. -
? Israeli 'government spokesmen de--
tiled that Israel would act as-a surro-
gate for the United States in its sup-
port for anti-leftist governments and
guerrillas in Central America and
said that no such -formal arrange-
ment has been reached. U.S. officials
also said no such deal exists.
But knowledgeable sources inside
and outside the U.S. government who
, asked not to be' identified said they
believed that Israel would help US.
allies in Central America if Congress
reduced its military assistance to
?those nations.
The action might not be in concert
with the United States, but it would
be good business ? and business of
the sort Israel has sought in the past.
The Israeli government considers
its arms sales secret, but evidence of
the Israeli role in Central America is
easy to come by. For example:
? When asked last month where
- his men had acquired their Soviet-
designed AK47 automatic rifles, Nic-
araguan rebel leader Enrique Ber-
mudez answered, "From the weapons
? that the Israeli government took
from the PLO in Lebanon."
? When reporters asked Guatema-
lan Gen. Efrain Rios Montt to explain
- the success of the coup that brought
himto power in March 1982, he an-
swered that it was "because many of
our soldiers were trained by Israe-
lis." Rios Montt since has been de-
posed.
? When nominally neutral Costa
Rica decided in 1982 to beef up its
Internal security; -Haaretz, the re-
spected Israeli mainstream newspa-
per, disclosed that "Israel will sell
arms and give counterinsurgency
training to the Costa Rican police.:
? The same newspaper reported in ?
November 1981 that Israeli advisers
were training government counter-
insurgents in El Salvador, a claim
repeated by opposition members of
the Israeli parliament.
All four incidents involved Israel
with Central American clients whose
objectives the United States support-
ed. In each instance, the United
States could not, for one reason or
another, provide direct miltary aid
at the time. _ _
All four reports elicited no com-
ment or carefully crafted official Is-
raeli denials. And yet they are but
four of many examples of Israel's
large and controversial role as a ma-
jor Central American arms trader.
As suct,lareeLisisiegav positioned
to help resupply the CIA-backed con-
tras in Nicaragua or the govern-
ments of El Salvador or Guatemala if
Congress cuts off fundh_a_fer_any_or
all Central American operations.
? If Israel decided independently to
? aid the same missions, the US. ad-
ministration could suffer some con-
gressional funding cuts without seri-
ous harm to US. allies in the region.
Indirect reimbursement of Israel by
the United States would not be diffi-
cult, said several international arms
experts who spoke on the condition
, that they not be identified.
President Reagan was asked dur-
ing his news conference last week to
explain what seemed to be invisible
sources of support for the contras.
They could not be aided secretly by
the United 'States "without the
knowledge of Congress," Reagan re-
plied, but he did not address the
possibility that another country
might be aiding the rebels.
The Washington Post, quoting on-
-identified sources. reported last
week that tte CIA _bad approched
both Israel and Saudi Arabia seeking
their covert aid to the colitis.
Israeli Embassy spokesman Victor
Harel said: "We are not American
surrogates in Central America or
anywhere else. We are denying any
help to the contras." ?
He said he could not rule out the
possibility that a customer for Israeli
arms might resell them. "Weapons go
to a destination and then who knows
what happens?" Harel said. "A111 can
say is that, to the possibility of third
' deals done with our approval, I com-
pletely deny it."
Harel also said, "There are no Is-
'melt military advisers, trainers or
? military experts in the whole area of
Central America." He said he did not
know whether retired Israeli mili-
tary personnel were working in the
region. He described some Israelis
living in Central America as sales-
men for Israeli arms dealers who
? have taught customers to use
weapons.
Regardless of whether the United
States has been urging Israel to as-
sume -a military role in Central
? America, Israeli arms merchants to-
day account for about 40 percent of
the nation's- exports, according to
studies of international arms sales.
Israel ranked seventh in arms ex-
ports in 1982, with $1.25 billion in
export sales, according te Ihe Stock-
holm International Peas&jlesearc,h ?
Institute. A CIA report, using a $1.6
billion figure for 1982 sales, rated
Israel fifth, after the United States
the Soviet Union. France and
Britain.
Since its decision in 1967 to expand
Its domestic defense industry, Israel
has found its best markets, according
to independent accountings of the
international arms trade, insuch
countries as South Africa, Argentina
and Chile.
"The United States sells to its
? friends; Israel sells to hard curren-
cy," concluded one Senate arms spe-
-cialist whO atked not to be identified.
'Be characterized the Israeli mar-
Continued
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ON PAGE
BOB LEVEY'S WASHINGTON
37R000100040001-4
Shbh! i4i Ektra
, realize you're probably reading this at a
.1 brightly-lit breakfast table, dear friends?in full
[ -
' view of your family, your cat and your Maker. .:,
But imagine yourself under a lamppost, on a
? foggy night, in a trench coat. Because that's the "
setting in which such news ought to be delivered._ . ? _.
The awful truth: someone at the CIA thinks ,
there's a June 31.
This amazing revelation arrived in about as
roundabout a fashion as you could wish. But it all
began with a woman from Sterling.
Back in August, she wrote to say she had "waited
in vain for some mention of the government ?
calendar for 1984." I couldn't imagine why I'd ever ,
write about something so bereft of excitement; But,
tucked under the woman's note was the evidence..
According to this calendar, producer unknown, June
had grown an extra day.
If anything ever looked like a job for Beth ,
Kaiman, Ace Researcher, this sure did. "See if you
can find out whodunnit, Ace, and why," I said. : ..??
But the more Beth got into it, the more it looked
as if she'd have to leave it to her grandchildren to
finish.
. Officials at the Government Printing Office said. '.
they'd haVe to see the calendar before commenting.-.'
Beth sent them a photocopy. Not ours, said they. ?. -:_?,:,
Off went another photocopy, this one to Bob ' ? ."
Fiser in the public affairs office of the General .
Services Administration. Bob said the calendar ?
.wasn't a GSA product, but may have been produced
and circulated independently at another
government agency. Which? Bob didn't knciw.
Next stop: Our very own dapper federal .
government columnist, Mike Causey. Mike said it i.:
couldn't be an official Uncle Sam calendar because ?
those Have "U.S. Government" printed at the
bottom. He agreed that it might have been ?
produced independently by?or at?some agency.
Dead-ended, Beth sat down to have a long think.
One agency. . . .Produced,
independently. .No one seems to knoW ?
anything".':: . .Hmmmmmm .
Could it be?
It was.'
CIA spokesperson Kathy Pherson contacted the
'agency's printing office. Operatives there
Lnfirmed that they had printed the '
,calendar.":But it was never aiV..-ributed?, the printing
'folk said, because the error was discoveram
you can sleep soi-Ti ly again, right?
This'll wake you up. ,
mole is loose at the CIA.
, A calendar mole.
Pherson said all-copies of the lime 31 calendar1.
were supposed to have been destroyed. _
?:?-.77,Shed-thit-?1-i-e?alid-rhe printing services office
:."ar-E-SuT-Pi-is-Ed-th-ara copy w6irflTliaeri--7--
-
-77-Maybe I've been reading too many thrillers, but I l?
Can see it now:
Comics page of Pravda.
? ? ,
- Column Called Bob Ivanovich's Moscow,
"The decadent capitalists have proven once again
..that they are an inferior society," Bob would write.
.nley cannot even read a calendar! An
American-based correspondent has obtained a
,document that proves
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ON PA GE
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25 MARCH ]97T
Jac k Anderson _and _Les Whitten
C
U 7:1T ,1!_ ? (I) 4-
0 111 Lap
The Central Intelligence Agency has
? conducted a secret survey of the flood
? of petrodollars into the United States.
Over the past three years, according to
the CIA survey, the oil-producing
countries have invested an astounding
billion in U.S. holdings..
Some CIA anzlysts fear this prodi-,
gious financial stake could influence
U.S. action hi any future Middle East
crisis. Thenation's most influential fin-
ancial leaders, the analysts suggest,.
might feel compelled to support the
Arab cause. - -;.n? n ? .
?
For 'example, members of -the
ization of Petroleum Exporting Coun-
tries have entrusted their portfolios to
the nation's largest banks, particularly
Chase Manhattan, Morgan ? Guaranty,
Bank of America and New York's First
National City Bank. ? j ?.
Thus the Arab oil. potentates have.
become big coustorners of these pow-
erful banks. Presumably, this will
heighten their sympathy for the Arab
: viewpoint. For once the Arabs get a
hold on a banker's pocketbook, his
heart and mind will usually follow. ? ? -
Yet the petrodollars have been chan-
neled discreetly into the U.S. economy.
With the single exception of the shah
of Iran,' the oil potentates have been
careful to avoid purchasing controll-
ing interests in American firms.
The rise and fall of the stock market,
plus deposit -withdrawals and, other
transactions, have reduced the value
. of the 3,134 billion OPEC investment in
, the United States by $2 billion, accord-
ing to the CIA. The CIA estimate is that
the oil-producing nations are pumping
- . , . ? ? ? ? ? ? ,
about 20 per cent of their available
funds into this country. .
At first, most. of the money, accord--
, ing to confidential Treasury Depart-
ment documents, was put into "com-
mercial hanks as short-term dep-..tsi ts."
thus creating "widespread fear that a
saidden withdrawal or shifting of these
deposit; would lead to a collapse of
certain banking institutions."
.. But around mid-1975, the OPEC
.- countries began to concentrate more
...
on long-term holdings. Their financial
..,. power, meanwhile, has been slowly in-
creasing ? in the executive suites of
'? Am 'c .- - - s.?-:"'
_ _ . . . _ .
Baekrooni?Nfiair?We - ave r?=?
c ed the cozy ? relationship betw -
th federal energy .regulators and a
oil coons they regulate. Now, a
start i cr, confidential memo; C gress _
had ac used. the Federal .En gy? Ad:
- ministraC Ora of condoning t. criminal
conduct ot he oil crowd.
? . The shock.in 3 memo, p. epared by in-
- vestigators lo.L the Ho e Energy and -
. Power Subcoran tte? declares:. "Our --
investigation show ere is considera-
ble evidence of p9 itial criminal vio-
lations of the st? utes and regulations
administered 4 FEA. However, the
agency failed fo develop the means to
conduct the necessary -ir estigations ?
for effe.ctiv presentation o this evid- ?
ence to t e Justice Depart'en t' for
prosecuti n." - : . ? ? ' -.
"
There' is more to the story. Cu
investigation has found that the
wit'.
s- ,._ ly is 'unable to audit the major
r ners. Without this capability to
90raduct criminal investigations or au-
pit., the FEA may be letting the indus-
137R000100040001-4
-on ?
ry rip off the public to the tune
tandretis of millions of dollars.
.? EA officials across the country
ha pleaded for criminal inv...,5 .t.] a-
tors to- crack down on oil crimii als. .
Audi rs have begged for instructions
and :we personnel. But the re.,_3,1esn3
liava r ,eived resounding reject- ns in ?
Washita,. ton.
The F A is charged W5th prr. tecting
the publl from energy frau 3_ Here
are just a f w examples: ..._ , ..
' .4. The not ous `.'daisy eh- an" chases
involved pa., er. .. sales of petroleum
products, wit.. no real ovement of
the. .petroleu .: ..Phony middlemen
;merely sold th paper ork back and
? -forth, jacking u the rice .with. each
`transaction. Yet hes cases gathered
dust in the PEA fo ? nths. -
- :. . ?
a The energy aa ncy killed several
?
investigations beca e its regional of ft-
dais refused to co peate with one an-
other. When reg Jnal leads demanded
sovereignty ov r cerin cases. the
:probes came to n a bru_ t halt.
* The gene al counse s office also
delayed train )rtant Cas,, involving
millions of -Vilars in p sible over-
charges to he consumers. The delays !
;vete mine essary? -..-, - - ---.
- By the time the energy a ncy cor-
rects the deplorable situation if ever,
it may e too late. The statute r limi-
tations/on the crimes could rt out.
Many of the violations ()court: d as
long 7Tgo as the 1973 Arab oil emba o'o. -
.Fortnote: New PEA .Administr ? tor
Jol7fi O'Leary told us he recognized is
ncy's failings and planned to co
ct.thenn
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TA17.1 E A.HEARZB ARMED FORCES JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
01; Mar ch 1953
The Failure to Defend De
'0100040001-4
Weinberger and Casey Fail to Strike the Proper Military Balance
by Anthony H. Cardesman and Benjamin E Schemmer
ven in the best economic cli-
mate, defense must compete
with other uses of public funds.
In a major recession, every defense dol-
lar must be shown to be necessary. This
is partly a matter of efficiency and effec-
tiveness: the American people_most be-
lieve that their tax dollars are being
spent wisely. It is also, however, a mat-
ter of convincing the American people
that a strong defense is necessary to
meet the Soviet threat. This is not simply
a matter of showing that Soviet? forces
are increasing in size and capability, it is
a matter of showing that planned US
force improvements are a well-judged re-
sponse to the trends in the Soviet threat.
For the last decade, the Secretary of
Defense and the Director of Central In-
telligence have published comparisons of
US and Soviet forces as part of the annu-
al budget cycle to support the Presi-
dent's proposed defense budget. The De-
fense Secretary has explained the
strategic balance, the trend in theater
nuclear forces, the trend in conventional
forces, and the trends in the NATO and
Warsaw Pact Alliances, while the Direc-
tor of Central Intelligence has published
detailed dollar cost estimates of US and
Soviet defense spending.
These data have shaped the Reagan
Administration's buildup of US forces.
The comparisons of US and Soviet
forces have furnished the essential ratio-
nale for increased defense spending, and
a critical perspective on the size of the
US defense budget and the adequacy of
US forces. Although many readers may
not realize it, most of the statistical and
graphic data that shaped the SALT II
debate, and many of the qualifying
words necessary to give such numbers
meaning, came from the Annual Report
of the Secretary of Defense and the Mili-
tary Posture statement of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff. Virtually all of the data
on the inadequacy of US forces and de-
fense expenditures that President Rea-
gan campaigned on came from these
sources. They underpin every reputable
work on the military balance and on US
and Soviet defense expenditures.
? Omitting the Facts from the
Secretary's FY84 Annual Report
The merits of providing as much data
on the balance as possible should be ob-
vious to a conservative Administration
which won election through its use of
such data, which advocates a strong de-
fense, which now faces a massive defense
budget battle in the Congress, which
faces an even greater battle over arms
control, and which must try to persuade
its allies to maintain their defense spend-
ing in the face of a world recession. The
Reagan Administration seemed to un-
derstand this when it wrote its first se-
ries of defense posture statements.
It published more statistical material
on the balance in FY83 than any previ-
ous Administration.
Somewhere along the line, however,
things have gone astray. As Table One
shows, Secretary Weinberger has re-
moved virtually all of the useful data on
the balance from the Defense Depart-
ment's two main defense policy and bud-
get statements. Even Table One under-
states just how much material has been
censored in FY84, or is presented in an
inadequate or potentially misleading
form. With almost Orwellian timing, the
Secretary of Defense has made "1984"
the year in which the truth about the
balance is missing from his defense of
the nation's defense budget.
Canceling CIA Public Reporting on
the Soviet Military Budget and
Activities in the Third World
Secretary Weinberger has not acted
alone. William Casey, the Director of
Central Intelligence, has killed the
CIA's annual estimate of Soviet defense
I spending. The Agency will no longer
publish its Dollar Cost Comparison of./
Soviet and US Defense Activities, perhaps
the most quoted work it has ever issued.
CIA reporting will evidently be confined
to the release of selected data to the
Congress and press, although in a form
that will lack sufficient analytic detail
and backup to be cgrt;ing-Cingilii the face
of intelligent questions or criticism. Ac-
cording to an official CIA spokesman,
the Director has done this as part of a
general policy of eliminating all public
CIA reporting on military matters and
Soviet forces.
He has also eliminated the Agency's
annual estimate of Soviet military and
economic assistance to Third World
countries and its reporting on the num-
ber of Soviet military and economic ad-
visors overseas. This information used to
be published in a document entitled
Communist Aid Activities in Non-Corn-
munist Less Developed Countries
The title of this report is so esoteric
that its importance may not be obvious,
but it was the only useful source of data
on the number of Soviet bloc and Com-
munist advisors in foreign countries, the
number of foreign military trained in the
Soviet bloc, and the size of Soviet eco-
nomic and military aid to Third World
nations. Without it, there is no reliable
source of data on the number of Cuban,
Soviet, East German, or PRC military in
nations like South Yemen or Ethiopia or
on the intensity of the Soviet effort to
target given Third World nations.
The same CIA spokesman made it
clear that the Director's new policy ap-
plies to far more than these two periodi-
cals. When asked whether the CIA
would issue any further statistical or an-
alytic data of any kind on threat military
forces, he replied, "Nothing."
Some lower-level CIA staff have
raised some more serious issues. Al-
though there is no way of confirming
their views, some feel that the reporting
on Soviet defense may have been elimi-
nated because it disclosed serious analyt-
ic problems and uncertainties in the CIA
effort in this area. One CIA analyst also
raised the issue of whether the report on
Soviet expenditures was being dropped
because it would disclose a leveling out
or drop in the rate of growth in Soviet
defense spending and equipment produc-
tion over the last two years, although he
noted that this conclusion was "contro-
versial" and scarcely reduced the ratio-
nale for increases in the US defense bud-
get.
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THE WASH I NGT ON POST
28 September 1978
ARTICLE APPEARED
ON PAGE A -18
East-West
ace pert lit Over roo
i.?
Some experienced "Western negotiators believe
that the real issue is not the data problem. hut
Whether the Soviets ?will decide they want a troop
reduction agreement. If they do, these- offkmals ar-
gue. than- there are: enough loophole* in the data
.auestion for Moscow to proceed with an agreenient.
an agreement by, watering down: itiown- figures- irr
? order to reach a compromise:4.--4,7,7L.t",'.--.Z.-7.-7:t.7.7".7 .
The 805,000 figure -was, first broached, Wittenetort
By Michael Getler,?.'
Wasbtasson Pest lovrolvis Serria?
VIENNA?Allied officials at a new round of East-
West troop reduction talks set to open here today
privately claim that the Soviet Bloc "is either fid-
dling, cheating or lying" about the number of troops:.
it has along the Central European front facing the
West' -4' ?
The biggest discrepanciesAllied officials- say-;are responding detail, bythetWarsaw Pact in June 1978.,
in the number- of Soviet and Polish troops,: as /op. .
',.' posed to East German and Czechoslovak: soldier* Since-thin -SOviet President LeonictiBrezhnev, has:
. that the Warsaw pact claims are in the region-stated . publicly that the Warsaw-Pacb?has?not-e-tided: ered by thenegotiationa. _ .,_ ': _ , ' ? ? ? ? - -. any more Soldiers ? in the;.field-,husheq. Soviet*.
r-,?
. . _
. _.. must stick to the same figuret..or: Sing.gestllttichnee
How can-- they talk that, way." counters a senior : ,statements. , , were false.: ? - ? -- ''
. '" :- ?..,', --i, , -' .....
Communist diplomat here, "they have no roster"' of - ?
Our military units or personnel.' ,:. - ' .,-,- 'i .:,,r. -4, , , - - Actually, Western delegates here say they could,
.... not really prove Brezhnev - wrong. The: Soviet build-
These opposing views concern, What' negotiators--- ? up in-- recent years has been-. in- equipment: rather
- on both sides of the- NATO-Warsaw Pact "mutualA .. than-men, they say, and the Pact forces-were much::
' and balanced: force reductioe - (MBFR). talks.. call. _ larger- to- begin with before June 1978.,' - ?,
"the data issue' . ,. '.'.. . '-- -_,?'?.?-_-_:,..-- - --_-7.-::.`,..?- , -.-; ?-' ' Officials in several Western' countries insist th? i
In brief, it refers to a- Western., contention that the - is an area where Allied intelligence is extremely
Soviet-led Pact has about 155,000 more soldiers in. good. \--the whole ot western intelligence simply.
- Central Europe than the Pact :will admit to offi- could not have- been that wrong for the past la
cially.years."-. one othcial said. ? , . ?., - -
In a deeper sense, it-raises the puzzling question ? Intelligence on East. Germany is viewed. at' eiri ,
for ' Western officials of why - the Soviets arts:-?.1 ' daily good because of closeness to the Western bor-
- "fiddling, cheating or lying" overtly to the West in a ? ,ders. heavy travel by West Germans in the East and
field where Western intelligence is-highly confident' -the handful of 'Allied military liaison-posts around
of its estimates.. , -, ._ . ...- .
. ' Berlin. '. - - , - . ? :7 _-?-?t:-.,- ? ,,, !--:-. - - -. -_
The issue represents an enormous and possibly in- The massive movement of: Soviet': -forces- into
surmountable obstacle that must be overcome if Czechoslovakia in 1968 and a steady flow of Czech
' these long-stalled negotiations that have been: going -. defectors also helps pinpoint data on that country
on for five years.' here are ever to yield an agree-- : US. intelligence is focused heavily on-Soviet forees.
meat that will reduce- military forces, and hopefully r Defectors- diplomats: soy satellites and electronic-.
? tensions, along the most critical East-West border. ? ... eavesdropping all contribute to intelligence that,
What makes this' new round?the 16th since the ? along with equipment information; leads to final es-
? talks began in October 197Z---so potentially-_crucia_ . ? tunates of manpower. , . -. : -,,
as a test of good faith is that it is. the first- since the ' - As to why the Soviets would-seek to- Confront the
Soviet Bloe submitted new proposals ":7 West with figures the West knew to. be. Wrong,. one
. - . In those proposals, the Soviet Bloc appeared to : experienced official reasons that it Perhaps does not
agree. at ? least conceptually, to the . long-standing signal aliarder Soviet line but is rather,"a neces-
- Western position_that there should be approximate_ ?:: sary Stage that they rmust'-go. through. lxs:convince
? parity and w common troop ceiling for both forces themselves that we won't aceept it."--:--sc.-:_ri-J7.',..-4,.`,_-.-
-.: in the region.. The Soviet Bloe agreed to a- common,' :,,". ::-.9thers believe the June proposals -were born out,.
ceiling of about 900.000 army and air force person-- : '.OV SoVietBloc concerns that a new NATO long-term.,
i
tion on 700.000 ground troops.: _ . -.. - '? ?- -
?,----, ;.- ._ defense program, which could offset-some Warsaw nel on each-side: with the-key figire-being a limita.--
Pace-strength,' was moving ahead- and that the new--,
These-proposals-were hailed, albeit-cautiously-, by - - -proriosal-might help stall that initiative.-- !----1 ? - -?.;
, President Carter last June- as."a step_ in the right ? :--Most here-view the June proposals asp-clever bit,
direction!' The Soviets, he said, had'. now replied to ? of progress, "superficially seductive:7'as one official_
1
earlier Western proposals --in i very affirmative , -. -put it , ?-..-...:?:..- - ? --1,, --:. -1- , ..-- :-..? ? -.-.: .,:. _,' ' ,' ?,_-----
:
way 7:- - ,? - The Move recaptured the initiativeite from the West,
." - - -,- , , - ..?-,'.? ---._ - ? -, - ,
In the following Months however, it became- ap.--.: .- so that- it is now A Soviet proposal that. is the most!
i parent that the data supplied by the Warsaw-. -Fact" ' recent one on the table. Western officials here say -
and the line being taken- here by: Communist oil-'-- - they presently-have no new proposal- to-present-at
; cials indicate no change in. the Eastern arithmetic. this ? new round but rather will -press the Warsaw--
? ? The allies insist that the Warsaw Pact has MAO, ? Pact on-providing more details in. an, attempt to '
grounds troops and needs to withdraw 262,000 to:. . ? focus on-the source of the data dispute: .. _ ? ? -
reach the ceiling. The Soviet bloc 'contends it only ? . , :. A Communist official says that "there arepossibil- ?
has 805,000 ground troops and thus only-has to-with-1'7 I - ties to show good will and the data discussion is not
"draw 105,000 to comply._ --- _ , ..._-,-.--. . .- , . -...-..4':...--: completely sterile' He suggests' that the- West,
The Soviet have-not. disputed ,NATO'S. estiniate. !:,. might be counting nonmilitary- groups, such.-as rail- -
.. ? of 791,000 Western ground troops43,..fhiclz'meerie ar-i.. ' road repair-crews, or that it-is makinglinistake in
. Western reduction of 91,000. . - ?.-.;.:. r- _ ' -:.::',.I-S-???i?-? 1,'? assigning the same military manning labels_ - to
' In effect, the Soviets argue that there is already -".:troops in the rear as those close to the fro_ _ _.nt...- - - -- r
rough Parity in the t -'zirglieWrriReekizEles2 2/06/2431:e0AWDR901-011411744009VOtediliOSIIY:
that the Soviets- apPaetiot- to . have-budged -,atIall -.::?- only-active-duty, -nonreserve troops are included in'
m
. fro their long-held position that-they Will not give % ---,:.... Western- estimates. Stlll.. the search for face-saving
i up the. relative. numerical superiority' they-have al-.1 '.: ...lo.opholeS will go on-,T.-,?;,,'? -, - ..;:',_. ,_ , ..z",._ ?- - 7
R000100040001-4
Approul 1114114. e be
OFMIC0371R000100040001-4
PRESS RE
98th Congress
Roger W. Jepsen, Iowa
Chairman
Lee H. Hamilton, Ind.
Vice Chairman
Senate:
William V. Roth, Jr., Del.
James Abdnor, S. Dak.
Steven D. Symms, Idaho
Mack Mattingly, Ga.
Alfonse M. D'Amato, N.Y.
Lloyd Bentsen, Texas
William Proxmire, Wis.
Edward M. Kennedy, Mass.
Paul S. Sarbanes, Md.
House:
Gillis W. Long, La.
Parren J. Mitchell, Md.
Augustus F. Hawkins, Calif.
David R. Obey, Wis.
James H. Scheuer, N.Y.
Chalmers P.-Wylie, Ohio
Marjorie S. Holt, Md.
Dan Lunoren, Calif.
Olympia J. Snowe, Maine
Bruce R. Bartlett
Executive Director
Contact;
Bill Maddox
[phone]
1983 -- 95
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE TO
6:00 P.M., SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 1963
PROXMIRE RELEASES CIA REPORT ON SOVIET ECONOMY
Washington, D.C. -- Senator William Proxmire
(D-Wis.) released today a new CIA study of economic
trends and policy developments in the Soviet Union.
The study, prepared by the Office of Soviet Analysis,
CIA, was submitted by Robert Gates, Deputy Director
for Intelligence, together with testimony presented
to the Subcommittee on International Trade, Finance,
and Security Economics of the Joint Economic
Committee. Proxmire is Vice Chairman of the
Subcommittee.
Proxmire said in a statement from his Washington
office:
"The study presents the results of the CIA's latest
study of the Soviet oil industry and Soviet energy
prospects into the 1990's, reviews the recent perfor-
mance of the economy, and provides new revised esti-
mates of Soviet defense spending.
"According to the CIA, Soviet economic activity has
picked up somewhat in the present year and the CIA now
forecasts a growth rate of 3.5 to 4 percent for 1983.
However, the CIA has not changed its estimate that
Soviet GNP will average only about 2 percent growth
annually for the next several years.
"The improvement is due in part to improved
weather during the past year, in part due to Andropov's
campaign for greater discipline.
"In contrast with earlier estimates, energy is no
longer considered to be a serious constraint on
economic growth during the 1980's.
"The CIA now believes the Soviet Union has avoided
the downturn in oil production that was once predicted.
Oil production is expected to continue growing, level
off by the middle of the decade, and then decline
slowly until 1990.
Approve difie lieLLV?%4104Q61WriAiWeilfirg t.t3gRg9k100(149gt1 -the total
costs of defense since 1976 has risen by only 2 percent
: CIA-RDP90-01137R000100040001-4
\ Approved For Release 200f/06/24
MIT I C A.1".?aP ?,?L URER
WASHINGTOI\
..eL
OZ4 PAGEj.,, 11 July
TIMES
1985
71/Z.
AV
'Expelling U.S.' now
radicals work it
By Ted Agres
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
A new coordinated radical
strategy has been devised to drive
the United States out of key regions
of the world, according to a recent
threat assessment prepared for the
CjA..
The architects of the strategy, the
study says, include radical Third
World states and terrorist groups,
with clear support from the Soviet
Union.
Basic elements uniting the group,
according to the report, are
"extreme hostility toward the
United States" and "deep anxiety
over U.S. intentions and policies."
This language is strikingly simi-
lar to that used by President Reagan
earlier this week in his speech to the
American Bar Association when he
outlined what he termed the "strate-
gic perspective" behind the actions
of international terrorists.
He said Libya, Iran, North Korea,
Nicaragua and Cuba are engaged in
a "pattern of terrorism" designed "to
disorient the United States, to dis-
rupt or alter our foreign policy, to
sow discord between ourselves and
our allies [and] to remove
American influence from those
areas of the world where we are
working to bring stable and demo-
cratic government."
"Their real goal is to expel
America from the world." the pres-
ident declared.
Mr. Reagan cited terrorist
training camps in Libya, arms provi-
sions by Cuba and joint military
operations in Nicaragua as evidence
of mutual cooperation by the mem-
bers of "Murder Inc."
But he provided few details of the
motivations and operations behind
the strategy of expulsion.
The stategy, however, is detailed in
the new report, titled "Expelling
America: A New Coordinated Radi-
cal Strategy" It outlines the origins,
participants, purpose and implica-
tions for the United States of this
radical expulsion strategy
It also details the involvement of
the Soviet Union in fomenting Third
World terrorism against U.S. inter-
ests ? details Mr. Reagan did not
divulge in his address.
A copy of the report was obtained
by The Washington Times.
The report lists Libya, Iran, Cuba
and North Korea among the partici-
pants in the coordinated terrorist
strategy. In contrast to Mr. Reagan's
list, the report includes Syria, but
not Nicaragua.
Mr. Reagan said his list was not
inclusive, but administration offi-
cials conceded that efforts by the
government to elicit Syria's help in
freeing seven remaining U.S. hos-
tages in Lebanon led to the decision
not to publicly brand Damascus at
this time.
The countries participating in the
coordinated strategy are seeking to
expel U.S. military, political and eco-
nomic influence from five key
regions of the world ? East Asia,
South Asia, the Middle East, West .
Africa and Central America.
The United States is perceived as
being both a "strong ideological
threat" as well as a "potential mili-
tary threat" to these countries, the
report states.
"U.S. pro-status quo policies inter-
fere with the radicals' political ambi-
tions," while U.S. support for Israel
is regarded by Arab radical states
"as indicating U.S. strategy in the
region."
Coordinated strikes against
American targets are "a result of
shared ideology, common enemy
and joint purpose." But direct
coordination is "superfluous" since
the terrorists are guided by their
common ideology and methods of
operation, the report states.
Their activities, moreover, are not
limited to terrorism. There exist
"Multiple types" of anti-U.S. actions
including "dislodging external stra-
tegic assets [allies, bases, etc.],
stretching U.S. forces thin, and
direct targeting of overseas U.S.
presence and interests!'
The report outlines three areas in
which radicals seek to subvert U.S.
relations with the allies:
? Economic subversion, includes
such disruptive efforts as mining the
Sea to halt vital tanker traffic
and seeking to subvert the Saudi oil
industry and economy.
? Political subversion involves
state-sponsored terrorism, for
example, attacks by such groups as
the PLO, Al-Jihad and the PFLP It
also includes "supporting internal
insurgencies" within countries
friendly to the United States, such as
the Philippines, Thailand and El Sal-
vador. Conventional military pres-
sure and psychological warfare also
are included.
? Ideological subversion involves
granting scholarships to people with
the potential of supporting radical
objectives; holding seminars (ideo-
logical and religious); and propa-
ganda (ideological and religious).
In discussing efforts to stretch
thin U.S. forces around the world,
the report cites as a case history
cooperative relations between Libya
and North Korea.
Starting with the U.S. shooting
down of two Libyan Su-22 jetfighters
over the Gulf of Sidra in 1981, North
Korea and Libya began a concerted
effort against US. interests. One
week after the gulf incident, for
instance, North Korea for the first
time unsuccessfully attempted to
shoot down a U.S. SR-71 recon-
naisance aircraft with a surface-to-
air missile.
CilaLlOgg
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ARTICLE !inLUNIP
ON PAGE ill ""11
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PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
11 July 1985
01137R000100040001-4
U.S. study links Nicaragua
with Libya, Iran and PLO
By Alfonso Chardy
hsquirer Washington Bureau
:WASHINGTON ? Pressing its cam-
paign against the 'Irconfederation of.
terrorist states," fEelleagan adminis-
!ration yesterday _privately circulat-
ed a new State Department report
accusing Nicaragua of developing
strategic ties with IThya, Iran and
the Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion.
7A? U.S. intelligence analzst who
gave the report to the Inquirer Wash-
ington gureau said it had been pre-
pared for the National Security
Council to "back up" President Rea-
gan's assertions Monday that five na-
tions ? Nicaragua,_ Cuba, Iran, Libya
and North Korea ? were partici-
pants in a "confederation of terrorist
_states."
In that speech. Reagan also listed
the PLO as one of "the world's most
vicious terrorist groups."
Administration sources said that
Reagan's speech and the document
were part of a White House campaign
to prepare the American public in
Case Reagan decided to order mili-
tary action to retaliate for recent
-terrorist acts against Americans in
.Lebanon and El Salvador.
? The document has not been re-
leased formally because of objec-
tions from the State Department's
Middle East bureau, which felt it
could undermine U.S. efforts to pro-
mote a dialogue between Israel and a
-Jordanian-Palestinian delegation,
the sources said.
The final draft of the report con-
tains details of links between Nicara-
gua and the PLO, Libya and Iran that
in some cases date to several years
before the Sandinistas came to power
in an insurrection against President
Anastasio Somoza in 1979.
The report is intended to support
the administration's contention that
Nicaragua's ties to Middle East radi-
cals pose a threat to the Western
Hemisphere.
"The Arab entities Nicaragua has
chosen to deal with ... have had
known involvement in terrorist ac-
tivity, including the planning, train-
ing, financing and ? implementation
of terrorist acts," it said. "The Sandi-
nista ties with this network pose in-
creasing dangers of violence for the
Western Hemisphere."
Francisco Campbell, a minister-
counselor at the Nicaraguan Em-
bassy, said his nation "categorically
rejects the affirmations published in
this fabricated report." However, he
did not deny the specific assertions
in the document. ?
"We believe that it is deplorable
that the administration of the United
States should try to !capitalize) on the
genuine concern that is to be found
among the people of the United
States about terrorism," Campbell
added.'
According to the report, the Sandi-
nistas' relations with Middle Eastern
terrorists have yielded training by
the PLO, arms and money from Libya
and recent oil and possibly small-
arms, shipments from Iran.
The report says the Sandinistas'
Arab connection was established in
1969 when PLO instructors trained
Nicaraguans at camps in Lebanon
and Libya. One of the trainees in
Lebanon, it said, was Tomas Borge,
who today is Nicaragua's interior
minister.
When the Sandinistas unleashed
their final offensive against Somoza
in 1978 and 1979, they obtained PLO
assistance, through Sorge, to secure
weapons from North Korea and Viet-
nam and- funds from Libya, the re-
port said.
In July 1980, the report said. PLO
leader Yasir Arafat paid a four-day
"state visit" to Nicaragua and, at a
reception in Managua, spoke of "stra-
tegic and military ties" with the San-
dinistas.
Shortly after, the report said, Ara-
fat sent a PLO officer, Col. Mutlag
Hamadan, and 25 military advisers to
Nicaragua "to give instruction in the
use of Eastern-bloc weapons."
The report said the Sandinistas so-
lidified their ties to Libya in early
1979, when Libyan leader Moammar
Khadafy invited the Nicaraguans to
Eknghazi, Libya, and pledged money
and political support.
Borge played a key role in obtain-
ing a MOO million loan from Libya in
1981, the report said. The Libyans
have also shipped arms to Nicaragua,
it added, citing the interception in
Brazil in 1983 of four Libyan military
planes carrying 84 tons of military
equipment.
Since then, the report said, Nicara-
gua has become a member of a "San-
dinista-PLO-Libya axis" and is devel-
oping ties with Iran.
According to the report. Nicara-
gua's first official contact with Iran
came in May 1983 when Sandinista
minister of culture Ernesto Cardenal
visited Tehran and was granted a
rare private audience with the Aya-
tollah Khomeini.
In March 1984, Sandinista leader
Sergio Ramirez traveled to Iran and
secured a $23-milliOn trade agree-
ment, the report said.
And on Jan. 23, Iranian Prime Min-
ister Hussein Moussavi visited Nica-
ragua and met with Sandinista
leader Daniel Ortega. "Most observ-
ers agreed that shipment of small
arms from Iran and an oil deal were
discussed," the report said.
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ART!rt r
ON ,49 WASHINGTON TIMES
2 July 1985
What we're not being co
about terrorism is killing us
With all the pap and pabulum
about the moderation of Syria's
President Hafez Assad and
Lebanon's Minister of Justice Nabih
Berri. the time has come to explain.
in detail, what the intelligence com-
munity, on both sides of the Atlantic.
knows about state-sponsored terror-
ism.
FACT 1 ? Shi'ite terrorists, work-
ing hand-in-glove with the Syrian
and Iranian secret services, have
struck U.S. targets 16 times since
April 1983 ? from the kamikaze
attack against the Marine compound
that killed 241 to the kidnapping of
seven Americans in Beirut who are
still being held. It's what the special-
ists call low-level, low-intensity, low-
risk and high-payoff warfare.
FACT 2 ? The latest hijacking
was not the work of extremsts?
working in isolation_ The Israeli
Mossad, after many interrogations
of Shi'ite p_risoners, knows that
Nabih Berri himself was involved in
the planning of eight hijackings and
two car bombings_
FACT 3 ? The key supervisory
role for Shi'ite extremists in Leba-
non belongs to Col. Ghazi Kana'an, a
Syrian intelligence operative who
also functions as President Assad's
pro-consul in a country Syria
regards as its own. Col. Kana'an has
worked closely with the KGB in
Syria and in Lebanon_ French coun-
terintelligence discovered in 1983
the existence of a terrorist training
camp near Damascus that special-
ized in car bombings and where the
trainers were members of the Bul-
garian DS.
FACT 4 ? Col. Kana'an was in
charge of the Hama massacre in
February 1982 when 20.000 oppo-
nents of the minority Assad dictator-
ship were killed by Syrian special
forces and the town virtually leveled.
FACT 5? It was President Assad
who originally authorized the instal-
lation of Iranian terrorist squads in
Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Mr. Assad
has been profoundly impressed by
the success of Lebanese Shi'ite sui-
cide squads in forcing a hasty US_
withdrawal from Beirut in 1984 and
in "breaking Israel's fighting spirit?
EDITOR'S
PERSPECTIVE
by Arnaud
de Borch rave
? as e as expressee himself in
recent conversations with his
brother Rifaat and his top intelli-
gence aide, Gen. Mohammed al-
Kholi. Electronic surveillance ?
from the ground and from orbiting
satellites ? does produce known
results.
FACT 6? President Assad, a mas-
ter of deceit and hypocrisy,
underwent-a dramatic psychological
change in recent months. His is now
inspired by the Islamic cult of
Shahadah (martyrdom in a holy
cause), which is characteristic of the
Shi'ite extremist terrorists. This
appeared to receive confirmation in
an extraordinary speech he deliv-
ered to the ninth Congress of the
National Federation of Syrian Stu-
dents on May 4. The key excerpts:
"I have believed in the greatness
of martyrdom and the importance of
sacrifice since my youth. My feeling
.and conviction was that the heavy
burden on our people and nation ...
could be removed and uprooted only
through sacrifice and martyrdom.
... Early in my military life, I used
to discuss with my colleagues the
necessity for the state to form sui-
cide squads from among the pilots.
We used the word 'suicidals' and the
well-known Japanese word kami-
kaze. We used to say: 'fl'ue, every
pilot is already a commando I fidall
by virtue of his profession. Still, we
must differentiate between the ordi-
nary mission and the fida'i mission
which requires the pilot to pounce on
the enemy target and strike enemy
ships, airports and other targets by
turning himself, his plane and the
bombs into one single fireball. Such
attacks ... guarantee results in
spreading terror among enemy
ranks, raising people's morale, and
enhancing citizens' awareness of the
importance of martyrdom. Thus,
waves of popular martyrdom will
follow successively and the enemy
will not be able to endure them."
President Assad concluded his
advocacy of state-sponsored terror-
ism by saying that "My conviction of
_.martrydom is neither incidental nor
temporary. The years have
entrenched this conviction. ... I
hope that my life will end only in
martyrdom."
FACT 7 ? Mr. Assad, in person,
with the asistance of Gen. Kholi, has
supervised the training of handpick-
ed kamikaze squads, including a
group of fighter pilots who are -now
in the final phase of their training ?
and rehearsals ?at Minakh air base
north of Aleppo,
FACT 8 ? A recent analysis corn-
on behrf of the CIA i titled
'15o:wiling America ? A New
Coordinated Radical Strategy." Pres-
ident Assad has_rea bed agremeau
with Iran and Libya for coordinated
operations between the Syrian kami-
kazes and two other similar squads:
a Libyan-controlled group, based at
Tobruk, including Iranian,
Palestinian and Libyan pilots, and an
Iranian squad at Bandar Abbas, at
Elle _entrance to the Straits of Hop
MUZ..
FACT 9 ? West European counter-
terrorism operatives have
discovered that Syrian-controlled
networks arc now in place in Athens,
Madrid, Lille and Marseilles.
Iranian terrorists, disguised as mul-
lahs, have used French mosques as
safehouses.
FACT 10 ? Mr. Assad's control-
lers for terrorist operatons include
Sabah Noun, who helped coordinate
the Shi'ite campaign against Israeli
forces in southern Lebanon, and who
has now been given overall charge of
operations against Israel and Jor-
dan; Issam Kansuq.. a Syrian intel-
ligence officer; and Hossein
Mansouri, the Iranian who com-
manded the Ayatollah Khomeini's
Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon
until six months ago. These are the
agents who have been made respon-
sible for liaison between Damascus
and networks in West Europe and
the Gull
FACT II ? President Assad is
convinced that he has a personal
mission to harness Arab radicalism
to trans fundamentalist fury in
Continued
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pr-c7arlior Release 2002/06/24 : CIA-RDP90-01
WASHINGTON TIMES
28 June 1985
,r1/???
NitIRNING gmv
Hi_ ILI 41[4::IIN IlL
New report:
An analysis recently com-
pleted on behalf of the CIA is
titled: "Expelling America ? A
New Coordinated Radical
Strategy."
Defector flap
Students of the Soviet chsinfor-
mation effort never fail to be
amazed by the frequency with
which Western volunteers come
forth to besmirch the reputations
of Soviet enemies, Defectors are
under particular pressure to
prove their bona fides. There
have been a number of "quality"
defectors in recent years who
have caused their former mas-
ters so much acute embar-
rassment and harm by their
public revelations it is unlikely
that they have secret loyalties to
the Soviet system. One is Arkady
Shevchenko, former under secre-
tary general of the United
Nations and the highest ranking
Soviet diplomat to defect to the
West. Now comes journalist-
author Edward Jay Epstein to
add Mr. Shevchenko to the
Nosenko, Golitsyn, et al contro-
versies of the 1960s and early
1970s.
The Epstein technique is remi-
niscent of the new "McCar-
thyism" we have been seeing in
the U.S. Senate, where the credi-
bility of presidential nominees
who have been serving their
country with distinction
are attacked on the basis of a
memory lapse regarding some
event many months or even years
ago. So what? Who can remem-
ber precise details of routine
events of last month, let alone
five years ago? In Mr. Shevchen-
ko's case, Mr. Epstein has set
forth mercilessly with forceps
and scalpel to slice up not sworn
testimony, but Mr Shevchenko's
autobiography.
Mr. Epstein has shown an odd
sense of timing. His attack has
appeared only a month after the
Senate Intelligence Committee
issued a report on Soviet use of
the United Nations Secretariat
for espionage purposes. Mr.
Shevchenko has been discussing
his personal experiences of
Soviet abuse of the U.N. for intel-
ligence purposes in interviews
and in his best-selling book,
Breaking With Moscow. He also
tells the story of how he, a
privileged member of the Soviet
elite, became disgusted and dis-
enchanted with the Soviet sys-
tem.
? Washington's intelligence
community wants to know who
prompted Mr. Epstein to this dis-
service. Some believe it
originated with embittered,
Byzantine old enemies of former
CIA director Adm. Stansfield
Thrner, on whose watch Mr.
Shevchenko chose to find free-
dom.
The CIA's routine "no com-
ment" rule was broken
/yesterday: "Shevchenko pro-
vided invaluable intelligence
information to the U.S. govern-
ment," said the CIA spokesman.
"The CIA had nothing to do with
writing his book" ? as Mr.
Epstein charged.
137R000100040001-4
Advance man
Correspondent Stephanie Nall
files this from the White House:
President Reagan has named
James L. Hooley as one of his
special assistants and director of
his advance team. Mr. Hooley,
32, has worked for President
Reagan, either at the White
House or on a campaign staff,
since 1978, when he became a
consultant on the 1980 election.
Since November 1983, he has
been deputy director of pres-
idential advance. That office
plans the president's trips.
And:
President Reagan has chosen
Charles A. 'Trabandt to be a mem-
ber of the Federal Energy Reg-
ulatory Commission. If _?
confirmed by the Senate, he
would succeed Georgiana H.
Sheldon, a Republican who has
served in the post for two terms.
Mr. Thibandt, 44, formerly
servecrin the CIA and as chiei
counsel on the Senate Committee
on Energy and Naturt
Resources. He now is counselor
to theat the Interior
Department and is a 1963
graduate of the U.S. Naval Acad-
emy.
? John Elvin
Staff writer Jim Clardy contri-
buted to this column.
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R000100040001-4
It's not all fun and games. Tnere are
various instructions for crippling com-
munications by cutting the cables on
alarm systems and ripping down tele-
phone lines with homemade gaffs. A
rich variety of techniques is described
for lousing up the transportation sys-
tem:. disabling truck, engines, slashing
tires, breaking windshields and head-
lights, and cutting down trees and pil-
ing rocks to block highways.
By placing a cigarette between two
open matchboxes and tying them all
together: you have an instant instru-
ment-for arson that gives you up to 10
minutes getaway time after lighting
the cigarette.
One panel encouraging anti-Sanclinist -
graffiti might please the Vatican. It por-
trays a citizen painting "Viva El Papa"
on a wall, but the next panel shows peo-
ple throwing bricks at police station win-
dows, shooting out street lamps with a
slingshot and bashing stoplights with a
club. Finally we get instructions for
making a "Molotov cocktail'. with old
bottles and a wick; adding shredded
soap or sawdust to the fuel (gasoline or
kerosene) is recommended for better
results. Among the suggested targets
are police stations.
Now you might say that, at worst,
this is not quite on the level of the
CIA's recruiting and supplying guer-
rilla forces or mining Nicaraguan
ports. But that's not the point. Leav-
ing methods aside, the objective is
quite explicitly "the final battle against
the usurpers." If that's the language
of a manual the contras are getting
from their CIA' handlers, that's
presumably the impression the con-
tras have of the U.S. objective in Nica-
ragua. The impression Nicaraguan
peasants are getting is that "these
measures are extremely safe and with-
out risk" and that the "essential eco-
nomic infrastructure . . . can easily be ,
disabled and even paralyzed."
So what's happening is that the -
United States, at second hand, is en-
couraging Nicaraguans to rise up (a)
with the real prospect of easy success
and (b) with the clear understanding
that the United States is going to be
with them all the way.
Since neither is the case (witness
the House refusal to vote more money
for the "covert" CIA activities in
Nicaragua), there is not only a certain
reckless irresponsibility about this
operation but some problem reconcil-
ing it with the Reagan administration's
high-principled outrage over economic
warfare when practiced by Salvadoran
rebels. Those are the reasons why the
"Freedom Fighter's Manual" is less of
a comic book and more of a metaphor
,Ae 7'7: ? 1_7,77,ARED
7
_ s
pi4"4?11-697;,,- --WASHINGTON POST
TtMeasel2DONIQW24 :1096P4-RDP90-0113i
. . . And CIA Comics
If you like comics, you are going to
love a new development in the Reagan
administration's holy war against the
Soviet outpost of evil in Nicaragua.
I say "holy" only because Ronald
Reagan has lately claimed the support
of Pope John Paul II for his Nicaraguan
policy. Actually, it's by no means sure
that His Holiness would bless each of
the several dozen different ways that
the CIA;supported Nicaraguan coun-
terrevolutionaries (contras) are trying
to mobilize the Nicaraguan populace to
"participate in the final battle against
the usurpers of the authentic Sandin-
ista revolution."
The quotation is from a "Freedom
Fighter's Manual" that the contras
are apparently circulating among the
Nicaraguan citizenry. A peasant found
it stuffed in his mail slot and passed it
along to a representative of an Amer-
ican religious group, who forwarded it
to a Washington organization that is
not in sympathy with U.S. policy in
Central America. A contra leader and
U.S. intelligence sources have authen-
ticated the manual and independently
confirmed the CIA connection.
Done up crudely in the format of a
color-comic section, it would be a lot
funnier if its contents weren't so
squarely at odds with the administra-
tion's rationale for its "secret" sup-
port of the contras: to interdict the
flow of arms and supplies from Nicara-
gua to leftist insurrectionists in El Sal-
vador, The 16-page manual is billed as
a "practical guide to liberate Nicara-
gua from oppression and misery by
paralyzing the military-industrial com-
plex of the traitorist-Marxist state
without having to use special tools and
with minimal risk for the combatant."
How? You start with the little things
like being late to work, calling in sick,
leaving lights on and faucets running,
neglecting maintenance work on ve-
hicles and machinery, throwing tools
down sewers, booking phony hotel
reservations and leaving the gates
open on state cattle farms.
Moving right along you put dirt or
water in gasoline tanks, spill coffee on
official documents, sprinkle nails on
highways and plug toilets with
sponges. When Ronald Reagan pro-
claimed at one of his press confer-
ences that while he was not out to
overthrow the Sandinistas he surely
intended to "inconvenience them," he
was not just whistling "Hail to the
Chief." Enough of this sort of stuff
could drive anybody?even the most
sturdy and stoic Marxist-Leninist?
around the bend.
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quiviADI ZVENTS
15 MARCH 1975
D;t1 U FolReifelase 2062/06/24/o: CIA
31' ? rCit10:11 it135531111 z'Dy.
By VICTOR RIESEL
Some Central Intelligence Agency
cials expect an outcry .to whirlwind
p against CIA industrial espionage in
endiy as well as "detente" nations.
..ere will be a flurry of action inside
orne intelligence "stations." "Spooks"
_
k.;risof
Ti. 20-year espionage sentence given
USSR spy lvanov was apparently wiped
off the books by the State Department.
TA be sent packing. "Covers" will be
lown. And the U.S. industrial-military
crnplex will be limping in a strategic
eld wherein it should be the swiftest.
As one source, intimately familiar
ith intelligence gathering, ruefully put
recently?it will cost us millions of
ollars to obtain the kind of secrets in
ne USSR which any Soviet agent can
ick up for a dollar on any American
ewsstand selling technical magazines.
Further, said he and he sure does
know. the U.S. is being inundated by
Scolet KGB agents.
They come in on Soviet vessels which
ow berth in 40 American ports. Of
curSe, they come in among the thou-
ars of commercial, cultural and scien-
.:=Lc exchange commissions. Sometimes
e U.S. even dispatches federal special-
to Russia, as was the case with the
a:trnent of Commerce. to explain
azies of technical government
Furthermore, in order not to irritate
the Russians and depress them during
detente. we always play 'the gentlemen.
For example, last December 16 the very
polished and elusive Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for European Affairs
John A. Armitage flew into Newark,
N.J.?hardly a destination, usually, for
so distinguishedra diplomat. Mr. Armit-
age then went directly to the federal
building. He met U.S. Attorney for New
Jersey Jonathan Goldstein.
Then they went into federal court
and asked the judge to put aside the 20-
year espionage sentence of one Igor
Ivanov. This is strange, since the last
report had it that Mr. Ivanov was in
Moscow supposedly driving a taxi,
hardly an affair of state.
So there's need for a flashback. On
Oct. 29, 1963, Ivanov, then a chauffeur
for the Soviet's Amtorg Trading Corp.,
was arrested along with two other Rus-
sians. The FBI later proved to the courts
that they had been obtaining classified
secrets on Strategic Air Command com-
puterized communications and counter-
strike operations. Two of the Russians
had diplomatic immunity. They had been
assigned to the United Nations. They re-
turned to the USSR.
But Ivanov, as a chauffeur for the
trading corporation; was just an alien
spy. So to prison he went. Then he
sought release. The Russians sent
word they'd truly appreciate his being
permitted to leave prison and return to
Moscow while on appeal. If his appeal
were rejected by a higher court, why
then, Ivanov simply would return
voluntarily to prison. That was in 1971.
But on Dec. 16, 1974, the State De-
partment, in the person of Mr. Armit-
age, and the Justice Department, in the
person of John Goldstein (brooding all
the way), asked the federal judge in New
Jersey to set the whole thing aside. Why?
All in the interests of detente, that's
why. Mr. Goldstein is more tight-lipped
than a frozen clam. Ask Mr. Armitage
what it's all about, he muttered as
graciously as he could for a man who had
been pressured by superiors into doing
what he obviously found distasteful.
Seven times I tried to ask Mr. Armit-
age. He did not return the call. And Igor
Ivanov did not return to the U.S. His
sentence was simply I.viped out. Yet
ions. One such Commerce expert
Ivanov is one of the Soviets' most
Moscow recently to reportAISIPIVATIOrFRA Ricii914PftraQ0Ma4 : ciAIRDP90-01137R000100040001-4
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There is evidence that fvanOv's arrest
in 1963 desperately upset the KGB when
it learned of the capture by the FBI from
a cable sent to Moscow by the KGB
"rap" or resident officer. Boris Ivanov.
At least two former American ambas-
sadors to Moscow can attest to this.
The electronic and photographic
equipment discovered in Igor Ivanov's
living quarters proved he was deep in
industrial as well as military espionage.
The secret computer system was an ITT
development.
Question therefore is. why should
the State Department?and on
whose orders?do this falor for the
Russians? Certainly the So jets
don't exactly quiter over ing to
break their rsord. I?anow simply
could ha%e gone underground in
Moscow. But if the threat of an-
other 13 years in American prison
is rernmed. Igor may return in some
new guise in some new trade mis-
sion.
The Soviet agents are all over us.
For example, when Khrushchev ran
Moscow for the party during the most
brutal of Stalinist purges (see his book.
Khrushchev Remembers) one of his
favorite aides was a chap by name of
Potalechev (spelled phonetically). The
latter was a tough purger. Yet up he
turned as head of the Soviet foreign
trade trust with whom scores of our top
industrialists have conferred.
And there is the former Soviet secret
police (KGB) chief Alexandr Shelepin.
It has been charted that the KGB (all
the way back to the Cheka days) was a
killer, machine. Yet now Shelepin is
Chairman of the Soviets' so-called labor
federation con ferrin with national
union leaders in Germany and with labor
visitors from many lands. Just two
examples.'
They could be geometrically multi-
plied by the thousands. True, some are
being monitored by the CIA and the
FBI. So is some of the industrial equip-
ment the Soviets are purchasing.
But under today's circumstances, our
industrial counterespionage will be
circumspect. Our spooks. domestic and
international. might as well come in out
of the cold. No sense being beastly
about it. The Soviets might resent our
intelligence people getting in their
statistical services. v.'hat like the late British-born Rudolf
lvanovich Abel.
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ARTICtrArnatR.
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WASFZENC',TOIC POST
6 APR= 1983
Donald F. B. Jameson
R000100040001-4
VC
CIA Petroleum Prophecy
One hears a lot about profits and pe-
troleum when times are _good land very
little about icses when times are had),
but almost nothing about prophets in the
petroleum business once their big splash
in the press has passed.
One of _the mmtirensationajforecaSts -
was -a CIA study six years:agraitnelassi-
fied and entitled "The Anteinational :-
Energ Situation: _OutloOk to :1985."
Notable at the time for its-astir-hate that
the Soviet Union would soon become a
net importer of oil,. it cauSecLi stir bY pre-
dicting that by 1985 the -Soviet bloc
would "require a minimum- of s3.5 million
barrels of imported oil" every day. Today
Soviet production is over 400,000 barrels
a day higher than the highest level the
CIA foresaw. The Soviets are dumping
well over a million barrels a day.atcheap -
prices on the international market --
The Soviet story grabbed - headlines
and drew attention away from the rest of
the conclusions the CIA had arrived at in -
its forecast These are the ones that really
make interesting reading now. For in-
stance, "We timate the 1980 demand
for OPEC oil will be about 34 million
barrels a day, 2 million barrels a day
more than in 1977." In 1980, OPEC pro-
duced an average of about 27 million bar-
rels a day, making the CIA estimate off
by 7 million barrels, or over 20 percent.
For later years, reality and forecast
spread much farther apart.
OPEC produced about 22.6 million
barrels a day on the average in 1981 and
184 million in 1982. Current production
is about 13 million barrels a day, although
the year's average may approach 18 mil-
lion if the world economy picks up a lot_
OPEC's current rate of .production is low,
to be sure, but there it is_ CIA's 1977 esti-
mate of 1983 production, interpolating
from its projections for 1980 and 198.5,
would have been over 40 million barrels a
day, three times greater than what is ac-
tually the case. Although it will rise later
this year, OPEC's average production will
certainly be. much less thari half of the
rate the agency foresaw.
It expected Saudi Arabia, for instance,
would be producing about 12 million bar-
rels a day in 1982 and 'from 19 to 23"
million barrels a day in 1985. Instead of
14 million barrels a day, .which is where
.the CIA forecast would put current prod-
uction, Saudi Arabia today is- pumping
. -less than 4 million and. may_reduce that
-In its elf-xsirie,oaragraphs?the.1977 report
-says, 'By 1982 or 1983,1:4-liable price in,
-creases ,are inevitabler*leas ?14e-scale
-,conservation measures -:.-oatt idemand
sharply!An the real worldoniicesnut de-
mand. not?corrservatkin,------- ?
The CIA's 1977 crystal ball foresaw
Free .World demand rising to -about 55
million -barrels a day in 1980 and growing
to abo*fi0 million in 1985. In fact, free
world 4rnand in I980 was about 45 mil-
lion. almost.20 percent-less. Now demand
is somewhere over 40 million, say 43 mil-
,
lion. That makes its estimate of today's
-tier-maid off by about one-third.
In 1979 the CIA -put out another,
longer study on the -same subject It
noted the escalating prices of the time,
but still came out with a prediction of 30
million barrels a day as OPEC's likely
production rate for 1982. Instead of 1(K)
percent error, it came down to 40. World-
? wide demand was also overestimated by
about one-third.
It recognized that the price rise it had
? foreseen in 1977 for the early 1980s was
taking place in 1979, but-the full influ-
ence of prices on consumption was
missed. One shouldn't blame the CIA
alone for this failure. Industry made
much the same mistake. Exxon, for ex-
ample, bet billions that high prices and
oil shortages would make a project to ex-
tract oil from shale rocks viable. It was as
wrong as the government
The point is not to hold hard-working
analysts up to ridicule, but to ask why
they-went wrong. It seems to me in retro-
spect that the CIA basically failed to ask
itself how we were going to pay for all
that oil at those prices. If you had looked
at the problem, you might have seen that
something had to give. ?
'What gave -was oil consumption. We
suddenly became much more efficient in
the use of oil after the 1979 price...rise,
'4: The trend of smaller increments of oil
'-consumption per unit increase in
that had started in the late '60s suddenly
!took off in 1979. In that year the United
F.States consumed an: average.nf 18.5 -mil-
?barrels a day? of oil products
consumed About 15.2 million, -an
-percent drop. The GNP was -about the
for both years.
? What the analysts missed were the
-people.adding more insulation to houses,
'Amy* fewer and -smaller cars and keep- -
ing thermostats lower, and industry's cut-
ting energy use drastically. That explains
in part. why the estimates were wrong.
There were other factors, among them
one worth mentioning. President Carter,
I think, wanted the country to suffer for
its wanton, wasteful practices. He felt we
would all be better for having learned a
lesson. The apocalypse thew reports fore-
saw was the exhaustion of oil resources
before we had prepared alternatives-
This is a problem, to he sure, .hut it
seemed to me at the tune that Carter rel-
ished the contemplation of this particular
form of judgment day. The reports that
foresaw that day fast approaching were
just what he wanted--and just what the
CIA gave him.
There are some lessons to he learned
from this sorry record, I believe. Perhaps
the most important is that our infOrma-
tion can be inadequate even on vital
topics and the successful economy is the
one that can stay flexible, capable of
adaptation to whatever happens.
The -writer, an oil consultant,
-retired front the CIA in 1973.
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'4 LL-.-
28 October 1984
The Troubling Econ
of Oil
By DOUGLAS MARTIN
UWA1T1 sheiks, Saudi princes and Nigerian bu-
reaucrats live mainly on hope-these days ?
the hope that oil production will fall every-
where but in the Organization of Petroleum Export-
ing Countries. And in fact there is substantial evi-
dence that this is slowly happening. ,
Their hope also is that the rate of energy conserva-
tion will. slow In the industrial nations and that the
substitution of coal, nuclear power and natural gas
for oil will reach its limits ? and these trends are al-
ready evident. Their ultimate hope, of course, is that
prices will rise.
Simply put, these hopes and dreams are OPEC's
strategy. The 13 OPEC members hold most of the
world's oil reserves; theirs is by far the cheapest to
produce, and they are biding their time until the non-
OPEC countries run out of crude, putting OPEC once
again in the driver's seat.
But while they wait, ample supplies are available
elsewhere and that will be the case "until the early
1990's," says James Schlesinger, former Secretary
of Energy. Adds John H. Lichtblau, president of the
Petroleum Industry 'Research Foundation: "All the
pressure on oil prices is down in this decade."
That downward pressure was dramatically evident
earlier this month when Norway, then Britain and fi-
nally Nigeria cut the prices of their high-grade
crudes by as much as $2 a barrel, and oil company
stocks plunged for a few days as fear spread that the
drop would have no bottom. By far the biggest blow
to OPEC was the action of Nigeria, one of its own.
"For all practical purposes, Nigeria has left OPEC,"
says Stephen A. Smith, a senior vice president of
Data Resources Inc.
The OPEC oil ministers are meeting tomorrow in
an emergency session in Geneva to keep the initial
price cuts from sparking a pell-mell downward price
spiral. They are likely to be successful this time,
even though the Mobil Corporation last week took the
extremely unusual step of -lowering its domestic oil
prices on the eve of an OPEC meeting.
EVERTHELESS, there is a lingering concern
that someday later this decade, perhaps even
next year, oil prices might suddenly unravel,
plummeting downward in uncontrolled fashion. If
that were to happen, the world would experience an
oil shock as severe in its economic impact as the two
it suffered when prices rocketed upwards in the
1970's.
"It would kill off Mexico ? a major non-OPEC pro-
ducer?along with some banks down in Texas," says
a former high government official. ther national
and regional economies would be virtually flattened,
oil companies would give up most of their drilling as
unprofitable and scores of banks with huge loan port-
folios tied to energy would face the prospect of fail-
ure.
A
Not the least of the casualties would be' OPEC,
which is hardly eager to lose huge chunks of income
while it awaits the turnaround in the 1990's. Indeed,
in the new economics of oil, the United States and the
OPEC nations are beginning to share the common
goal of a stable, relatively high oil price, although
they part company on details. The ,United States
would applaud a moderate decline in prices,; the
OPEC nations would resist even that.
"A precipitate fall in oil prices by a substantial
amount, to say $15-to-$20 a barrel, could have an irn-
, mediate impact on many countries," said Walter J.
Levy, an energy analyst. "Major banks would be
very wort ed. It would effect Britain disastrously.
And oil states such as Texas and California would be
severely harmed."
But if an unraveling of prices is to be avoided, there
are also powerful arguments in favor of a moderate
' decline in oil price ? one that might eventually settle
at about $24 a barrel, or $5 below the current bench-
mark price of $29 a barrel that OPEC is trying to pre-
Serve. Already, economists are talking about the
beneficial results of the last OPEC price cut, in the
spring of 1983, when similar pressures from Nigeria
and Britain prompted OPEC to cut its crude prices
by $5 a barrel. a
That 1983 price cut helped to push down the infla-
tion rate in the United States and, in the opinion of
many economists, may have been as much a reason
for the current economic recovery as President Rea-
gan's tax cuts. It "added $22 billion to the spendable
income of Americans, an increase roughly equiva-
lent to the first two rounds of the Reagan tax cuts
combined," said Daniel Yergin, president of Cam-
bridge Energy Research Associates. "The cut
strengthened what looked to be a fragile recovery,"
he said. And he added that with the economic re-
covery once again showing signs of petering out, the
Reagan Administration would probably like to see
OPEC give in this week to a $2-a-barrel price cut. a
INDEED,Data Resources Inc. is already calculat-
ing the effect on the American economy if OPEC
somehow agreed to a $5-a-barrel price cut before
the end of this year. The forecasting firm said that
The Consumer Price Index would drop by half a per-
centage point in' each of the next three years and so
would general interest rates. There would be an
equivalent rise in the Gross National Product and
auto production would rise by 700,000 vehicles ?
about 10 percent of current annual production ? over-
the entire three years.
Airlines, truckers, fast-food merchandisers and
land developers also would profit from less expensive
energy. Other benefits would be so indirect that ana-
lysts would spend months figuring them out. For in-
stance, aluminum makers, although they do not use
petroleum in production processes, gain because
commercial airline manufacturers ? heavy users of
the metal ? would do brisker business with cheaper
oil.
Continued
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Even the losers --7 oil companies; coal producers,
some coal-carrying railroads and banks with big
loans to drillers or third world countries ? would not
- suffer too much. front?a itiederate price decline, in the
opinion of many economists. "A $1 or $2 cut can be
handled," Mr. Levy said. And the chief economist of
a major oil company says that "a modest price re-
duction contributes to a stronger general economic
? performance."
Ironically, the Federal Government Might be hurt
the most by a moderate price decline. Washington
absorbs up to 80 cents of the first $4 reduction in the
price of every barrel of oil, because of its_ windfall
profits tax. Britain and Norway have the same prob-
lem, making their recent price reductions bitter
medicine. _
It is no wonder then that this week's OPEC meeting
assumes something of the character of a sporting
event with fans rooting for opposing sides ? the start
of a moderate price slide vs. the status quo. But that
is probably a distorted view of the larger reality.
What is going on is a complex betting game, with
multifarious players and interests clashing against
the changing facts of geology, economics and demog-
raphy.
Here is OPEC's problem: Companies and coun-
tries do not like tying their purchases to a group that
would truly love to be the tight cartel it has never
--- quite succeeded in being. So they buy oil from non-
OPEC producers first. As a result, OPEC has seen its
share of world oil output plummet to
t2 percent in 1983 from 54 percent in ,
1973. This is the consequence of two
things: First, non-OPEC output from
the North Sea, Mexrco and elsewhere .
has soared. Second, consumption in
ihe face of high oil prices fell iii 1983 to
fits lowest point in 12 years, with ap-
proximately 35 percent of that reduc-?
'ion being attributed to conservation.
Partly as a result, nearly one-third of
the world's refining capacity is not
being used. _ .
All this is already common knowl-
idge in the new economics of oil. What
Is just emerging as equally important
involves the kinds of oil now being
produced and purchased. The oil in-
dustry has invested huge amounts of
inoney ? $18.2 billion in 1982 alone ?
'to build or renovate refineries to pro-
s
e.-s heavier, viscous petroleum that
pPEC and other producers sell more
cheaply than their benchmark brand,
arab light crude. The thick stuff has :
traditionally been used as the fuel
burned by utilities and industry, and
teow it is being used to make gasoline,
aviation and other products once 7
kroduced almost exclusively . from
rilgher-quality light oil.
s
HE upshot is that producers of
wr
; the once-prized lighter crudes ?
?
, Britain, -Norway and Nigeria -.?
are having trouble peddling their
"pares and are taking the logical step
iof shaving prices. ?
. International banks, although
tlearly nervous, see some blessings in :
._
this situation. They have billions in
loans outstanding to Mexico and Vene-
zuela, two major non-OPEC oil pro-
ducers, and they might welcome a re-
- duction in the price of light oil, if it
strengthened the price of the heavy
crude these financially troubled na-
tions pump.
1 But from OPEC's perspective, Ni-
geria's willingness to act unilaterally,
' as it did this month, is a troublesome
chink in the armor of OPEC strategy.
That country's financial woes were
enough to topple a government re-
cently and OPEC allows Nigeria to
produce just 70 percent of what it is
capable of pumping. Meanwhile, Mex-
ico, not an OPEC member but cer-
tainly financially strained, pumps
merrily along at a 90 percent clip. The
wages of OPEC fidelity at a time of
shrinising_energy demand are crystal
clear: Its members saw their export
earnings rumble front $267.7 billion in
1980 to $149 billion in 1983, with a fur-
ther reduction expected this year.
A waiting game is the result. tur-
rently, decreases in the use of "sta-
tionary" oil ? that is, oil used for
heating and power, but not in -trans-
portation ? is more than offsetting
slight gains in the transportation sec-
tor. But at some point, all the large-
scale substitutions of coal, nuclear
power, and natural gas for "station-
ary" oil uses will be mostly complet-
ed. Then, the upward movement in
transportation demand is expected to
continue and to become dominant.
OPEC's expectation is that this turn-
ing point will come within a decade.
? Similarly, OPEC looks forward to
? the day that Alaskan and North Sea
production begins a steep _decline, an
event that is likely to occur by the end
of the decade. They could only rejoice
that such promising prospects as So-
hio's Mukluk property in the Beaufort
Sea and Exxon's Destin Anticline in.
the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be
dry, and that expensive technologies
? maybe reaching their limits in wring-
ing black' gold from existing fields.
?
M OREOVER, such insurance
policies as synthetic fuels
have become almost fading
memories, while inventory levels '
have become much, much tighter --
? riot because the oil glut has abated but ,
because companies don't want to fi-
nance these inventories at high inter- ?
? est rates and are confident that oil is
? readily available. It is also the case
that OPEC is, in a sense, reluctantly '
banking its oil, with a production level '
of only 17.5 million barrels a day ? .
just over half the amount of a decade
ago ? while the rest of the world pro-
duces all out.
But, to most analysts, that hardly
seems enough to make OPEC influen-
tial in the current situation. In today's
world, the new wisdom is that oil reve-
nue in the bank is worth more than a
depreciating asset in the ground, a re-
versal of the thinking of OPEC's
-founders.
What helps to make oil in the ground
less valuable is that worldwide re-
serves have risen in comparison to
production, a surprisingly favorable
trend. In fact, this year's oil produc-
tion about 44 million barrels in the
non-Communist world ? Would be
? even weaker were it not for the excep-
? tionally cold weather last winter and
the long British coal strike.
? But perhaps the most important fac-
tor working against OPEC's ' long- ?
; term strategy is that the.world seems
likely never to need as much oil as
most people once thought it would. A
major oil company as recently as the
? mid-1970's was positing that demand
for OPEC oil in 1985 would be as much
as 50 million barrels daily. Instead, it
is slightly over 17.5 million.
The lack of demand for Saudi Ara-
bia's oil is more dramatic still. The
predictions were that the world would
be guzzling some 20 million barrels a
day of Saudi crude by now, and Amer-
ican policymakers less than a decade
ago were making nervous trips to _the
desert kingdom to urge the royal
family to quickly increase its produc-
tion capability to handle this demand.
Instead,- the Saudis, although still
OPEC's biggest producers, have
tightened the faucet to 4.5 million bar-
rels daily, and might go as low as 3
million barrels as a result of tomor-
row's meeting. That's roughly 25 per-
cent of capacity.
A major reason for the decline in de-
mand is the gains that have been
made in conservation and energy effi-
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ciency. And these gains will not likely
be lost, mostly because these gains
are largely the result of technology
not the behavior of people. For in-
stance, although Americans are using
slightly more gasoline this year than
last year ? partly because it is
cheaper ? the automobile companies
are adopting such technologies as an
automatic transmission that is as fuel-
efficient as manual shift. Already a
big car like the Buick Electra gets 17
miles a gallon ,in city driving, com-
pared with the 9 or 10 miles that simi-
iar models got in the mid-1970's.
Roger Sant, a former top energy of-
ficial in the Ford Administration and
now head of a company selling
energy-efficiency equipment to indus-
try, said this process would continue
as long as the price of oil remains
above $15 a barrel.
Moreover-, the very structure of the ,
_ market has become so competitive '
that a return to OPEC price-setting
power might be-difficult. Flexibility,? _
not the security of a guaranteed
source of supply, is what -concerns
buyers. Today, contracts are written
for a maximum of three months, '
rather than five years as formerly. As
much as half the oil in the world is
probably traded on a spot basis,
rather than _through the traditional
contract purchases. That's up from 5 -
to 10 percent at the beginning of the
decade.
Indicative of the change has been
_ the tremendous growth in the trading
of crude oil futures on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The-pe con-
tracts, representing a promile to de-
liver a fixed amount of oil? at an
agreed-upon price at a fixed date in
the future, are even more sensitive to?
price change than the spot market and
therefore have become a major vehi-
cle for oil purchases. Since the new
contracts began to be offered in
March 1983; daily volumes have
grown beyond the amount of crude
produced in the United States in a day. -
"When the market speaks, OPEC
now listens," Mr. Yergin said. F U.
,Years of remaining oil reservee ?
(Expressed as a ratio of proven
Teservevolurne to production .
atyearond)
Oil export earnings In _
?.;- billions of U.S. dallers ?
_ ? r ? _
OPEC CENTRALIN- 'REST .
PLANNED OF THE
ECONOMIES WORLD- -
-1977 -
urcekinternatlonglEneniygtetletIcal .
Review, C1.47Petroleum Industry
ThReeeerGn Foundation, N. V.; 1983
.-' British Petroleum /Itelle.w of
World energy"
, -
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ell PAGE /3 Seel, 20 May 1983
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International Report
Briefs
Agencies disagree on debt 'e
t `1:
A GOVERNMENT STUDY of the foreign dejati
crisis apparently has concluded that the ,problem
will be solved by economic recovery amongethed
, major industrial nations. This finding is likely tfej
play a critical role in -determining the Amerigilll
negotiating position at the seven-nation econolJAP.-1
f, summit -conference to be held at -Williamsbin,
;Va., later this month. It would argue, for exam.*);./
against major new initiatives to deal with the
;problem. However, there are strong dissents -4o z
this optimistic view from the Central Inte1ligesFq2
- Agency and the staff of the National Secuptyrj
Council. Both agencies are said to be quite -copT
:corned about the ability of developing erountries.toq
keep up with their debt repayment. According, to
? one account, these agencies argue that the prOb-.,
-lem could- become unmanageable in 12 -to'18,
months, even with fairly strong economic recbV..2:4
ery. Developing nations owe roughly $600 billion to-)
governments and commercial banks. Much of Allis
debt is being renegotiated because it cannot 4"?..64
paid on time. Widespread defaults could ,underel
mine the stability of many of the world's largest;
banks.
- New York Times News Sert4o-
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?5X1A
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
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Lector
Public Affairs office
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, DC 20505
The new map of Jordan is beautiful! Its colors are
attractive. What makes it especially lovely is its dramatic
improvement in accuracy over the preceding summary map of Jordan
and over many of the maps of the Middle East still in circulation.
The new map should inspire correction of other new official
maps which embrace Jordan and also the correction of erroneous
maps in the media, in encyclopedias, atlases, textbooks, and
other reference works.
The accurate maps and text in the annual CIA_WORLD_FACTBOOK
have already been useful in the work of endeavoring to supplant
the general misinformation about the status of the area in
question. I am confident the accurate maps and texts on Jordan
in future editions will also help in this work.
Many thanks for your gracious letter of July 28 and for the
copy of the map. I am grateful to you for both. Many thanks,
too, for your significant contribution to the issuance of the new
map. I am writing to Robert M. Gates to thank him for bringing
us together a year ago January 2. Enclosed is a copy of my
letter.
May I also note that you are ably represented by
She is both competent and personable.
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u PRESS INTERNATIONAL
19 August 1985
A SOBERING TRIP THROUGH THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY
By JIM ANDERSON
WASHINGTON
By chance, Martin Miller discovered in 1981 that there was a big mistake in
government publications about who legally owns the West Bank, occupied by Israel
since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
37R000100040001-4
The discovery led him on a four-year odyssey through the snail-like workings
of the federal bureacracy that left Miller a lot more cynical about the
government he once worked for.
Miller, a retired Treasury Department employee, found U.S. publications gave
ownership of the 2,200-square-mile area to Jordan.
But Jordan's 1950 annexation of the West Bank is not recognized by any
government except Britain and Pakistan, and in 1974 even Jordan gave up its
claim to the area.
The United States considers the area occupied territory, with ownership to be
determined by negotiation, but the area still is shown on U.S. maps to be an
occupied part of Jordan.
Miller, filled with confidence in the essential goodness of the U.S.
government, pointed out the cartographic mistake in a polite letter. The State
Departmet geographer responded, saying the department would tell all government
publications that the West Bank is not under the sovereignty of any Middle East
country -- including Jordan.
In 1983, the State Department announced that the mistaken map would be
changed in the next edition of the "World Factbook," which is published by the
CIA under the policy direction of the State Department.
The map was corrected, but the accompanying text was still wrong, giving back
to Jordan what the map took away.
The matter was brought up at the State Department press briefing and
spokesman John Hughes, whose office is in charge of the subject, promised
something would be done.
Nothing was.
Miller then called in one of his big IOUs, a casual friendship with George
Shultz. Miller saw Shultz in April 1984 and explained his story. The secretary
of state promised quick action.
Another year passed. Miller, carrying a briefcase full of letters, maps,
books and promises, went from the CIA to Capitol Hill and back to the State
Department.
At the CIA, spokeswoman Patti you told him the agency has no intention of
"revising, replacing or changing maps of Jordan published by the U.S. WALMent
at this point in time."
Miller wondered aloud if the rest of CIA intelligence is as accurate as its
maps of the Middle East.
Continued
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A SOBERING TRIP THROUGH THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY
BY JIM ANDERSON
WASHINGTON
In 1981, Martin Miller discovered by chance that there is a serious mistake
in U.S. government publications about the legal ownership of the West Bank,
occupied since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war by Israel.
The discovery led him on a four-year odyssey through the snail-like workings
Of the federal bureacracy that left Miller a lot more cynical about the
government he used to work for.
Miller, a retired Treasury Department employee, found U.S. publications gave
ownership of the 2,200-mile-square area to Jordan, but Jordan's 1950 annexation
of the West Bank is not recognized by any government except Britain and
Pakistan. In 1974, even Jordan gave up its own claim to the area at the Rabat
conference.
37R000100040001-4
The United States considers the area to be occupied territory, the ownership
to be determined by negotiation, but the U.S. maps don't reflect this. The area
is shown on U.S. maps to be an occupied part of Jordan, something that even
Jordan does not now claim.
Miller, filled with confidence in the essential goodness of the U.S.
government, pointed out the cartographic mistake in a polite letter and even had
it brought up in public at the State Department daily press briefing.
Miller received a letter from the State Department geographer saying the
department would tell all government publications that the West Bank 15 not
under the sovereignty of any Middle East country (including Jordan).
Two years later, Miller trudged from the State Department to Capitol Hill to
the Central Intelligence -Agency. The State Department announced that the
mistaken map would be changed in the next edition of the "World Factbook,11
which is published by the CIA, under the policy direction of the State
Department.
The map was corrected, but the accompanying text was still wrong, giving back
to Jordan what the map took away.
The matter was brought up at the State Department Press briefing, and
spokesman John Hughes, whose Public Affairs branch is in charge of the
subject, promised that something would be done.
In fact, nothing was done.
Miller then called in one of his big IOUs, a casual friendship with George
Shultz, now secretary of state, but head of the Treasury when Miller was pushing
defense bonds.
Shultz agreed to see Miller, who quickly explained the story to Shultz in his
seventh-floor office. Shultz promised quick action.
Another year passed and Miller, carrying a briefcase full of letters, maps,
booksi and promises, went from the CIA to Capitol Hill and back to the State
'Department. untold
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-I
-,_
'
.z..
? CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
n 1
r
28 November 1984 ? ' C
---
';' LETCERg,
100040001-4
Mappings
Martin H. Miller's story "A victory for maprnaking"
[Nov. 6] is interesting .because it implies that "things"
concerning the -mapping" of Jordan's West Bank were
putback in "order" with international law and logic.
Mr. Miller's story has in my view another flip, and it
goes as follows: In 1947, the international community re-
presented by the United Nations General Assembly de-
vised a partition plan of all Palestine into two states: one
Jewish, one Palestinian. This is the primary and legal
premise of the world's recognition of the State of Israel.
Unification of Transjordan with what remained of the
part that was allocated for the Palestinians in the UN
partition plan cannot be compared in any reasonable way
with Israel's claim of the said 2.200 square miles of land.
Jordan in 1948 did not expel any army or government
from that area; Jordan preserved its Arab identity
Israel in 1967 did expel Jordan from that area and en-
forced total military control over it. This action is not
recognized by any state in the world.
It is a poor argument to say that because not all states
recognized Jordan's sovereignty over that area, all states
including the US should recognize Israel's military con-
quest of the same area, and consequently remap it as
part of Israel. The UN's partition plan was and should
remain the only legal premise when people are concerned
with remapping regions such as this one.
Mr. Miller can rejoice in his accomplishment. but can
the CIA and State Department afford to follow suit?
?? Pat Reynolds
Arlington, Va.
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? - 10?-01137R000
6 November 1984
A victory for mapma
By Martin H. Miller
THE Central Intelligence Agency has stopped de-
picting the so-called "West Bank" as an integral
part of the Kingdom of Jordan: For the first time
since Jordan was evicted from the area in the war of 1976,
this area, which has long been the focus of American for,
eign policy is not presented in a CIA map and text as
Jordan's in perpetuity. . .
It took almost three years of effort ? articles in news-
papers, many letters and phone calls and visits, and ex-
tensive help from my congressman, Rep. Michael D.
Barnes (D) of Maryland -- to bring this about.
The accurate map of Jordan and accompanying text
are in the new edition of the CIA's annual "World
Factbook," which can be bought at government
bookstores or ordered from the Superintendent of Docu-
ments, Washington, D.C. 20402.
The "West Bank" consists of only 2,200 square miles
of land. But few areas of the world ? and none so tiny ?
have received as much attention from presidents of the
United States, our secretaries of state, national-security
advisers, or directors of the CIA. .
Ali that the agency responsible for evaluating "intelli-
gence relating to the national security" did in depicting
the area in question was to violate United States legal
policy and the facts. The CIA did this at the direction of
the State Department, which calls the shots for govern-
ment mapmakers.
In small State Department and CIA maps, the area on
the west side of the Jordan River was simply shown as
Jordan. On larger maps, the area was shown by
markings, color, and nomenclature as part of Jordan "oc-
cupied" bv Israel_
The consequence has been that a person looking at a
map of the "West Bank" has asked himself, "What busi-
ness does Israel have here? This is part of Jordan." Is-
rael is labeled a transgressor and, consciously or not,
government policymakers have ,
been influenced in their attitude'
toward Israeli actions in the area.
Against such a background
measures, like President Reagan's
ill-fated Sept. 1, 1982, "Middle
East Initiative" make sense. This
called for a confederation between
the "West Bank" and Jordan. The
President termed the plan "the
greatest foreign policy accom-
plishment of my administration."
It was rejected by all of the pro-
posed participants.
My campaign to make the State
Department of the United States
and the Central Intelligence
Agency "honest" began with a let-
ter datedNov. 4, 1981, to I
Alexander Haig, then secretary of
state. I asked. "Should the so-
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called 'West Bank' be shown as part of Jordan in maps
issued by the Department of State," and observed that
"Not even the members of the Arab League recognized
Jordan's sovereignty over this area." -
The reply came six weeks later in a letter from Lewis
M. Alexander, director of the State Department's Office
of the Geographer. He conceded that only Great Britain
and Pakistan had ever acknowledged Jordan's sover-
eignty 'over the area. In short, the US did not endorsel
Jordan's 1948 military occupation of the area. Neverthe-
less, even after. Jordan was expelled from there in 1967,
the State Department and the CIA continued to show it
as Jordan's.
In 1974 at the Rabat Conference of the Arab League,
3 Jordan's King Hussein relin-
quished Jordanian claims to the
3 area. The State Department and
the CIA continued to show it as
'3 Jordan's.
Nongovernment publishers and
the media followed suit. For the
public, for journalists, for stu-
dents, and for present and future
presidents and secretaries of state
? for an entire generation of
Americans ? the "truth" from
? our trusted sources from every
side has been that the "West
? Bank" is an integral part of
Jordan.
This has influenced our percep-
tions of "right and wrong" in judg-
ing the area and what the US
should do about it............
The work to get the State De-
partment to cease the dissemination of erroneous and
misleading data about Jordan and the "West Bank" has
brought results, although much remains to be done. The
CIA and 10 other nrapmaking agencies were told in a
State Department directive dated Sept. 30, 1982, to make
specified changes in their new maps of the Middle East.
This was the first breakthrough. The accurate map and
text in the CIA 1984 fact book came next.
? Martin IL Miller is a free-lance writer.-
Current man in CIA -I CIRd WnrIrl
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AR T I CU! /1.17EARI,
N PAGE WASHINGTON POST
8 March 1984
DIVERSIONS: The World of Maps
By Dana Hay
Like reluctant daffodils, human spir-
its meet March winds with hunched
imagination.s, yearning for April's bake.
It is a good season for charting a new
comae by the hearthsicle, bound in by
an atlas or spinning the globe.
Formore specific perusing% there are
sources for every type of map: cultural,
physical, political, as well as these de-
signed for the traveler, land developer
or business person.
The Cartographic Division at the
National Geographic Society (NGS)
prepares cultural and political maps as
magazine inserts and as separate wall
maps, many available on either paper
($3) or plastic ($4).
"The Peoples of China' is printed on
both sides, multicolored, 371/2 x 301/2
inches. Other maps in this series depict
ethnic groups of the Soviet Union,
Southeast Asia and the Arctic region, as
well as Indians of both North and
South America.
U.S. maps indude "Wild and Scenic
Rivers," "Heart of the Grand Canyon"
and "America's Federal Lands." Avian
fans vall appreciate the colorful "Bird
Migration in the Americas." ?
Regional subjects vary from the his-
torical map, "Mideast in Turmoil,"
chronicling changing conditions since
? 1800, to "Holy Land Today." ?
History buffs can find the NGS
"Battlefields of the Civil War," 30 x 23
inches., the National Ocean Service
(NOS) map of General Sherman's
1863-65 marches from Washington,
D.C., to Brunswick, Ga, 31 x 50 inches
($3), or, for the Colonial period, the Li-
brary of Congress Gift Shop facsimiles
of a 1639 map of Manhattan ($15) and
John Smith's Map of Virginia ($1.75).
For archival research, the Geography
and Map Division of the Library of
Congress boasts the largest, most com-
prehensive cartographic collection in
world?more than 3.8 million maps and
47,000 atlases.
Genealogists and local historians can
refer to the large collections of 19th-
and early 20th-century county and state
-
,
maps, as well as atlases. Of -Colonial and
- Revolutionary periods. There ?-also are,
'photoleproductions of manuscript inaps
from other American arid European
archives. The Libnary'S Hummel and
Werner Oriental collections include iar-
kieS from the 17th centitrY. ?
? For reference or travel. be* the C.JA
and the DOD Defense Miming_Ag
(DMA) offer current foreiramaps. IA
?maps are folded in vario959_2,
?
km the GPO. DMkpresents a wipe
view of the world, The "Great Circle
Map," with Washington, D.C., at the
center of the world and no political
boundaries, 34 x 42: inches ($4.10).
Other DMA maps include a timely
- "Middle East- Briefing Map," Series
1308, 34.x 38 inchea($2.20) and:a
orful 'Time Zone Map," ($5) from the
DMA Office of Distribution Services or
The Map Store. H ?,,r '
British Ordnance Survey, -Institut
GeOgraphique _National, K.ommetly &
Prey and Otherforeign maps are among
I The Map Store ,collection representing
- more Than 150-publishers: -
Domestic travelers may note that
? several geologic/highway maps ($5 Plus,
,$1.50 postage and- handling), published
by the American Association of Petro-
ken Geologists, are stocked by the Au-
dubon Book Store. Hikers and cyclists
find helpful the pocket-fold maps of the
PotomaC Appala,chieai Trail Club. Pre-
pared by Club committees, these topo-
graphic renditions are -based on
U.S.GS.' data, With additional trail in-.
formation. Prices and postage fees vary.
A "Visit-ars Guide to National Wild- '
- life Refuges, 17 x 22 inches ($2.25), is
prepared by the US. Fish and Wildlife
, Service and available from the GPO.
Planning to do something about the
weather?. The National Weather Service
(NWS) Climate Analysis Center pro-
duces temperature and Precipitation
probability maps and tables. The
"Monthly and Seasonal Weather Out-
look" is published in 9x12-inch format,
2fincinth (annual Subscription $31,), ?
from the GPO. '
7.
. The NWS Forecast Divison offers
34-5 day and 640-10 day forecast
maps, mailed folded from the Technical
-Support Group in Camp Springs, Md.
Earthquake activity can be seen on the
USGS 20x 33-inch "Seisinkity Map of
Delaware and Maryland," a study in
black and white.
? The National Ocean and Atmospher-
ic Administration (NOAA) aeronautical
navigation charts cover low and high
altitudes, jet navigation and airport ob-
structions ($L10-$14).
The National Ocean Service pro-
duces bathymetric, navigation training,
offshore mineral leasing and small-craft
maps in pocket-fold size, as well as tide
tables, tidal current and Great Lakes
canoe charts ($2.75-$8) and shoreline
movement studies (set of 18, $10).
The National Marine Fisheries Ser-
vice Angler's ?Guide to the United
States is published by region., Section 5
on the Chesapeake Bay includes 4 maps
($9) from GPO. A colorful LANDSAT
image of the Bay and vicinity can be
ordered from USW, 39 inches square
($3.60).
Other views from space are the NGS
photomosaic satellite "Portrait -USA,"
421/2 -x 291/2 inches, and the Apollo As-
tronauts/Earth photo, 34 ic 23 inches.
NGS depictions Of the Moon, Mars,
Solar System and Universe all contain
descriptive text. -
Collecting and supplying technical
information since 1879, the U.S. Geo-
logical_ Survey is the source Of some of -
the world's most beautiful and accurate
maps, both topographic- ($2.25) and
geologic ($1.9(-$6.60), many areas in
choice of three scales. To receive notice
of new USGS publications, write Mail-
ing List Unit, USGS, 329 National Cen-
ter, Ratan, Va. 22092.
The Maryland Geologic Survey has a
varied selection of maps, from -recently
published revelations of sedimentary
and crystalline rock formations' in' Bal-
timore County and City, 41 X49 inches
($4) to such interesting 1935 4naPS as
those showing the original Baltimore
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shoreline in black with greenruiverlay,
printed on tracing-weight paper,:- for
framing, 28 x 35 inches (50 cents).;L"'
The Virginia Department of-Conser-
vation Division of Mineral Resources
offers a multicolored "Mineral Resource
Map of Virginia" ($8), with a supple-
mental 28-page Directory ($4) and aero-
radiometric maps presenting contour
images of three radioactive elements in
areas such as the Culpeper Basin ($3).
Other resource-management,' __maps,
available from the Bureau of_la.nd
Management Western Office,ltiOnde
wilderness study areas for 10/0,...rn?
? states, public domain lands aigi.
. photos of townships. -
lithe above' lures you-from
ter wearies and serves as in
into the world of mapsi-perha*
intensive explorations may inter*
" Try, for 'example, "The Map Co
a British quarterly 'publication 4silfOut
? $30 annual 'subscription) from Cfavrch
Sq., 48 High St, Tring, HertfciOsbire,
England, U.K HP23 5BH.
Map enthusiasts also may join The
Washington Map Society' (M): lend
SASE to Robert Hansen, 3051 ltWio
Ave. NW,-Washington; D.C. 20016
Dana
Dana Hdy is a Washington w
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Article appeared
on page C-1
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THE WASHINGTON POST
18 February 1979
Immerses Himself ? Detail, But Persona
air
Limite,
EXCERPT:
The 13 days of_Camp David,: Carter's
high-stakes gamble undertaken wi
no assuranee of success; -stands as the
high point of his persona:U.:diplomacy.
Its ups and downs have been real
ted in detail. What isnot well kno
hoWever, is that basic-agreement to an
Evptian-Israeli- peace:treaty was not
among even the objectives as assessed
in advance by the White-House; and
that Carter draftecLthe corent the bi-
lateral accord in his own hand and Al
his own initiative midway through the
Camp David meetings. ?
Later; -in preparation for the Blair
House talks which' aimed at' complet-
ing the treati;. Carter obtained a huge
Map; of the Sinai from the CIA and
with the aid of- T.T.S.;geogiaphera drew
e
the interim :iiiithafawal- lines and final
military zones fOr:,Stibroission to the
Egan and,Isrielf negotiators. :He
also -worked on the details of the pro-
posed 10-article treaty which the US:
presented to the two sides at the outset
of the Blair House negotiations.
All 'this, in the absence-of connnen
surate progress toward agreement o
the West Bank and -the Palestinian
question, represented-a major turn to;
ward a bilateral Egyptian-Israeli ac-
cord rather than the: comprehensive
tlldeast peace Carter had steadfastly;
promoted before. As in his watering1
down of SALT]! objectiveilronideepl
cuts to marginal reductions in strate-1
gic weaponry, Cartertook a pragmatic'
approach under pressure without for7i
mally giving up his more ambitious
goal. The great question in these areas,
as in human rights, nuclear prolifera-
tion and other fields where he has had
to compromise, is whether and to what
extent he will persist in pursuing the
long-term objectives. :
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Washington Whispers,
* * *
So quickly do new nations spring up or
achieve independence these days that
the Central Intelligence Agency now
prints its world maps by computer,
allowing revisions in a twinkling.
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Approved For Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP90-01137R300100040001-4
Chicago Tribune
2 August 1975
By Jam?Rbbso
Ro!ig;on Editor--
,
_Marks'. allegations recent- re-?,
. orts That Belgian Jesuit . Roger Velce
mans received $10 ;million- in CIA and
.ZisST'OwE mattcr-orfactly. But what- ?Agency for International Development
',11e said had far more impact than the Rinds from the.Rennedy administration
.way he said IL It revealed a pattern of in 1963 :to counter the growing Leftist
:alleged CIA entanglement with _ the sentiment in Chile. , ? ?
MARKS SAIDIT was a common atti-
; "It- just seemed thai-. 1.vhen. made '?:'"
- . ? tuamong members of the intelligence
_-:these phone calls I kept ;turning up mls- :comunitf to use anyone, regardless of
sionaries., who had CIA involvements or,. his -position; to i iecure information or
kenw someone who did,!' Johil ._Marks, ,.. furthAr CIA goal.i. ?: ? - :.- --:--..-- '.-:' .F'T . - .
CO-author of "The CU,1 . and the ?Ct:dt ,of ,":,--_,'"Hell, I'd' use anybody -if it was` to the ?
. Intelligence," said in a. telephre'inter-:-,-;_".
furtherance Of :any Objectiir-e,"_?one?intel--
, view with The Tribune. : ::. -_?;:.,. : -,=.','.. i.? ?--'.- ? ligence, officer was :quated by Marks -
Marks, who ' v.,orked five ? years as an -, ;!Tve - used Buddhist monks,:: Ca tholic-
analyst for the State Department'.s Intel-, ,,priests, and even a Catholic bishop."
ligcnce Bureau,: said _30, to 40 per ..., ? But being' unwittingly used by the CIA
cent of his calls produced. a Missionary:. ,may have been a More Cm nonOccur--
who had ?a story of. CIA-church connec --.renee' for: missionaries, Marks saidl.:He '
tions overseas or knew someonc:who,did.. ,..: Spolei Of several exaMples where' money ? _
"There must be . a lot of it . (CIA.-:-_:'.was supplied by the CIA .thrii various !
Church 'Connections) because I didn't . front organizations: , ? - - _ .-
-even' look Very hard," Marks_ said. not.:.. 0.A grant . of $5,000 from the Asian
Ing that his'Samplilng was ,completely i Free Labor Institute for educational pro- _
' unscientific .and involved about 30 -mis- : grams aimed at trade :unions was to be :
sionaries. ? ? , - - , funnelled to. a priest in India : until he _
_ . . . . , . . _ . .
1 t . - ?? - ' ? ? ., .. , discovered the. Money ,,was .from the
i
' -.MARKS, ITOWEvER, Ilad --other?st? ,':. CIA. He truned down tie grant
ries Culled from Ins-= knowledge -of _ t_he-f?:-,,: 0. A?."111.sgr:r galcedo'.! . regularly. ae-',
intelligence community But he refused '..r,--cepted money f_ for :a church run radio
to name naMes-,.sornethihg' that got.hini. ...:.. program. :aimed; at cOrabating i. illiteracy _
into a tussle With the 'courts ill the pUbli-s.--.,,,but .alsobroadcastinganti-Communist i
cation pf the ,book that ,he, wrote:- lastropaganda.,-;'?-,
'
year With , Vid
or Marchetti, :a 14-year Another?,,
''..CIA-fulided.-:._',illiteracy :prd- -_
CIA veteran.- -_ ? - ? ? -?.--!.: ,-` g-am in Colombia used nuns _who nilwit-
' He told The Trihume about: - ' ?- :`. .- .,tingly collected data for the CIA as part._ .:
O A Catholic bishop in Viet i\i'ain who . Or their field Work.. ?- : --.. r.: - ; '1????,. : . -., .
Was on the CIA payroll -until at least :-.-.; .., But _ -?hovi :. reliable are rsMarks' .
2-- ?.'-' ? ;: ? . allegations/ r'':- ; -- '? ,'-r-- ? ? - . - ?
? A Protestatirmissionary to Bolivia ,',.: . - '....., . -... _2,2'; *!-' -"---..-_-?',.--- - -' ':- '. '
. who filed CIA reports? naming peOple he-, ?'; -?:"TlIF.?:' SPECIFIC allegations' ...that
suspected ox being Communists:- ' --.' - :_:._;_Marks rmikeS_ are .pretty credible" said
O A missionary in India who supplied ? Thomas ? Quigley, ?a ?Latio American' ex-?'
data to the CIA hut then_ stopped when . .pert with the :United._ States Catholic ,
_._..
he realized E.'how foolish" it was. . . Conference_
O AnOther. Protestant missionary in ,-- - "I frankly don't believe that the CIA -
? tolivia who kept tabs on the Communist -finds information _ from .- -.missionaries
Party, labor unions,- and farrners'._ coop-, ; yery.itnPort_ant,"!. said-the Rev., Eugene
. ,. .
eratives in behalf of the CIA .:i' ! ?4.- - ,St,pc,?.1y.e1),:jt.ead-,:o.f..the..4..N4tjonal.:._copri_cil,-:i
_
- ?
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25 July 1983
D
INTERNATIONAL
SOVIET UNION
How Sick Is Yuri Andropov?
he old man's left hand trembles notice-
Tremors: The latest alarm rang in Mos-
ably. Or maybe it's his right hand; oth-
cow earlier this month when Andropov
missed two scheduled appointments with
er reports say the left hand appears "numb
and stiff" His shuffling walk suggests inns- West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. "I
miry, but then a foreign visitor can emerge was sick," he told Kohl when he finally
showed up for the third_ Once the session
from a tete-i-t6te calling him alert and vig- 1
orous. That clqh-ri expression: does it reflect began, Andropov appeared mentally alert,
West German Foreign Minister Hans-Die-
the cool of a clever negotiator?or another
trich Genscher told his alliesin Washington
Hans-Die-
symptom of Parkinson's disease? And those
last week. The Soviet leader spoke without
disappearances: has he slipped off to a da-
cha?Or to a hospital for kidney dialysis? notes and acted very much like the man in
Taking the evidence as a whole, the patient charge. But in Washington, a team of doe-
obviously suffers from heart disease. Or tors employed by U.S. intelligence began
perhaps diabetes. If only half the health working on their urgent reassessment of the
bulletins on Moscow's rumor circuit bear Soviet leader's health. A videotape study
any truth, the wonder is that Yuri A.ndro- showed that Andropov's hands trembled
-pay can still get oui of bed in the morning. when he used them?a common problem
for older people?not when he rested them.
'The conclusion was that the tremors did not
indicate Parkinson's disease.- The analysts
also ruled out Alzheimer's disease and
Hodgkin's disease. In addition, he did not
appear to restrict his consurnfDtion of sugar
as a diabetic would. Nor was there any
evidence that Andropov ce-nsistently used
major nerve diseases or cancer. They have medicinal drugs that might hamper his
also ruled out a serious kidney ailment re- powers of thought or speech.
quiring dialysis?although many Kremlin More controversial, the U.S. team con--
watchers in Moscow believe evidence to the eluded that the pattern of Andropov's pub-
contrary One of the Soviet leader's main lic appearances argued against any major
complaints appears to be a heart illness kidney disease; he drops -from sight often,
dating back at least to the 1960s. His treat- but dialysis treatment would require more
rnent, a senior U.S. intelligence official told regular absences. That finding contradicted
NEwSWEEK, probably includes an Ameri-
can-made pacemaker. The study's overall origi-
nating from a medical source with contacts
conclusion: Andropov is indeed a sick man among Andropov's physicians?that the
who does not wear his years as well as Ron- prominent patient suffered from serious
aid Reagan. But "according to our actuarial kidney problems. After his no-show ap-
tabl es," says the intelligence source, "Yuri poin menu with Kohl, West Germans in the
Andropov is going to be around for a while." chancellor's party had even spread private
The intelligence analysts ? concede that , Soviet reports that Andropov had passed a
their medical chart on Andropov is far froni kidney stone?a version that U.S. intelli-
complete. Western diplomats and journal- 1 gencesays could be plausible.
ists in Moscow MUST diagnose his maladies The evidence that Andropov has serious
from what they see of him on television and heart problems?complicated by high blood
hear from the foreign leaders who meet him Pressure?is much better established. He
in person. Intelligence services also debrief has had atleast two heart attacks, the second
visitors, analyze photos and process any in 1966. And the Soviet leader himself dis-
useful tidbit of evidence_ For example, they. closed that he has an American-made pace-
Monitor Soviet orders for foreign medical maker. Andropov mentioned the device
supplies. The stakes riding on an accurate during a meeting with a Western delegation.
diagnosis are high?especially when the according to the U.S. intelligence source.
Reagan administration is considering a Somebody in the delegation mentioned
U.-S.-Soviet summit meeting. "You natural- Minneapolis; Andropov tapped his chest
ly don't want to be bargaining with someone and said he "knew about Minneapolis." A
who's not going to be aro u4 011.5\48 r Rtii4Vigel:10112106024triCIAIRdanif1343613137 R000100040001 -4
says the U.S. intelligence official.
137R000100040001-4
? /
?
Without question, Andropov, 69, does
not appear to be feeling very well these days.
The extent of his ailments are, of course, a
state secret_ But after a major reassessment
of the Soviet leader's health, U.S. intelli-
gence officials now endorse a guardedly
optimistic prognosis. They have concluded
that Andropov does not suffer from any
ARTICLE kPPEkRED Approved For Releieslei-2011211:16/24TOMAIRDP90-01137R00
ON PAGE 11 October 1983
Iran Again Threatens All Oil Shipments
From Persian Gulf; Spot Prices Edge Up
< last long and could be partly mitigated by
alternate supplies from other oil producers
By YOLISSEF M. lawatia around the world' in an rt
SiaLf Reporter of THE WALL ST1TiZE J
-r OURNAL
NEW YORK?Iran again warned the big
Arab oil exporters that it will halt oil ship-
ments. out of the Persian Gulf if Iraq un-
leashes its newly acquired French Super
Etendard warplanes; spot oil prices began
edging up in anticipation of such a possible
=oil shock.
The latest Iranian warning was made to
. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab
'Emirates, according to an Iranian govern-
ment official who asked not to be identified.
They were told last week, the Official said,
?in clear language that in-case of an attack
on-us they will also suffer."
. Iran's warning came as France was com-
pleting delivery to Iraq of five Super Eten-
dart warplanes capable of firing French-
made Exocet missiles already Iraq's pos-
session. Any use by "Iraq of the missiles
would mark .a major escalation in the fight-
ing, and spot crude oil, heating oil and gas-
Dependence on Oil
Delivered Through Hormuz
(In percent)
13.5
62 62
? 'I-LS,
Western
Europe
[:::::::;;Imports 1M Consumption-
4rUdie oil and refined isetroteurn probuCts trorn liahrein
Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United &tab
Emirates in 15,t2 as percentauesp4 ITistern oil imParts and
of wesierp oil consumplItm. Oil passing thrmpri 'Me Straus
el elormia makes up a Mailer ihere at U.S. lot& oil con-
sumption ix-cause The .U.S. prO0uCeS Mat 01 Trie oil It
uses.
&ourcE: central Imellipence AberiCt.
line prices all climbed sharply on the possi-
bility that the escalation could interrupt or
slow down passage via the Straits of Hor-
muz, through which travels about 20% of oil
shipped to the West.
But 'even while such warnings were being
passed, analysts in the West were cautioning
that any impact from such a crisis wouldn't
, apparent eff o
to cool Western concern, a senior Iranian of-
ficial said in a telephone interview that he
doubts the Iraqis would -carry out their
threats to unleash the missiles. "We don't
take these Super Etendards so seriously," '
the Iranian official said.
The 'relatively calm reaction from oil in-
dustry and military sources in the U.S. and
Western Europe is based on -the view that
Western powers, led by the U.S., won't allow
a cutoff of crude-oil supplies from the region
to last longer than a week. It is also sup-
ported these sources say, .-by vast new stra-
tegic reserves of oil held by Western indus-
industry sourc
an oil-price rise and a degree of panic if the
war spilled over to other producers in the
Gulf or resulted in closing the Hormuz
Straits entrance to the Gulf. But they be-
lieve the panic could be contained and the
I price rise moderated.
Officials of the Paris-based International
Energy Agency, the 21-nation crisis-manage-
ment group set up after the Arab embargo,
say the shortage of oil exports would .be less
than traumatic.
Although somewhere between 8 million
and S million barrels of -oil -are shipped
through the Strait of Hormuz every day
from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. Iran, 'Bahrain,
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates?not
all will be missed.
Other oil producers such as Nigeria,
Libyaallexico, Venezuela, Algeria, Indone-
sia, 'Britain, Norway. and the 1.7S., could
make up three -million barrels a day of the
shortage by boosting their production within
trial countries and Japan. These can make a few weeks.
an anticipated shortage in supplies from the In addition, Saudi -Arabia, -which has.an
Gulf .for as long as three months. overland pipeline crossing from the Eastern
The relatives ease with .which the devel- province oil fields of Yanbu. a Red Sea port
oping crisis is being viewed in Western gov- On Its Western coast. can divert almost an-
ernments and industry circles reflects the other in million barrels a day from the
lessons learned from previous world oil cri-
ses, including the Arab oil embargo of 197
and the Iranian revolution of 1979, which '
took three million barrels of supply off the
market, causing panic and a huge jump in
oil prices, sources say.
Among other things, experts say, the in-
dustrialized nations hold more than 90 days
of oil supplies in reserve and there is almost
a month's supply in tankers at sea.
Furthermore, Iran's navy and armed
forces are deemed incapable of effectively
blocking access to the Gulf for longer than a
few clays in the face of a formidable armada ,
of U.S., French and British navy ships just
outside the Gulf.
Col. Jonathan ALford, deputy director of
the London International Institute of Strate-
gic Studies, estimates Iran's naval power at
three destroyers, four frigates and 10 fast
patrol boats. Be figures that if Iran tried to
close the Gulf to navigation it would have to
? mine it. The U.S. Navy in the region could
undo such action by use of minesweepers
. and helicopters in "a couple of days or a
, week .at roost," be said..
Iran also might use missiles and ground
artillery to hit ships or use its air force to
damage neighboring . countries' oil-loading
facilities. But military sources don't foresee
Iran's ability to sustain such action for long,
partly becatise of the lack of .equipment.
The world won't escape a measure of
crisis if the Iran-lraq war gets out of 'hand.
Oil markets are nervous despite the over-
whelming oil glut that prevails. Yesterday,
the rising rhetoric of Iraq and Iran, for In-
stance, sent up sharply, prices of crude oil,
heating oil and gasoline futures. Borne-heat-
ing oil prices for November delivery rose
139 cents a gallon to 82.8.3 cents a gallon.
Gulf.
Currently, the pipeline, with a capacity of
1.8 minion barrels a day, .is moving. only
about 400.000 barrels a day, industry sources
said. The oil glut is forcing the other produc-
ers to reduce available capacity. Nigeria,
alone, is producing 1.3 million barrels a day,
and its capacity could be increased to as
much as 2.2 million barrels daily,
Some experts question whether some of
these countries would be willing, or able, to
increase their production quickly enough to
make up a sizable shortage. Nevertheless,
International Energy Agency and
cials think a crisis would be manageable_
"I don't see a crisis meeting of the
(agency's) governing board in the first
week, maybe not even in the first month,"
said one agency source. Sources at the ?en-
ergy agency said that the emergency exer-
cise it carried out last spring and summer,
assumed a shortage of more than eight mil-
lion barrels a day that lasted several weeks.
It included a cutoff of Gulf oil exports as
well as those of Nigeria, the sources said.
In that exercise, a crisis situation was de-
veloped that resulted ill pushing oil pines in
the U.S. to the theoretical level of $98 a bar-
rel in just several weeks. Agency officials
said, this was the result of a much more
acute crisis, however, and one that was far
less 'likely to Occur than the prospect of a
Gulf shortage.
We will get a psychological reaction no
matter how short the interruption is, but we
think- ft isn't going to be critical," the
agency source said.
Many Arab diplomatic observers believe
Iraq is deliberately fanning the threat of a
wider war to get PiTesterri and regional pow-
ers involved in pressuring Iran to end the
CONTINUED
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Approved For Ilifermaa6SkuWDP90-01
5 September 1984
By IA. LIVINGSTON
CIA reports
on the world
Maybe this will surprise you. It did
me. For many years, the Central In-
telligence Agency (CIA) assembled
from numerous sources a unique re-
port on the economic and political
facts of nations. It was a classified
document for internal CIA use and
for distribution within the govern-
ment
In the early 705, it was realized
that much of the material was not
secret and would be of value in refer-
ence libraries and to teachers, econo-
mists, scholars, businessm-n and
people interested in international af-
fairs. In 1975. a declassified version
was put out as the National Basic
Intelligence Factbook, and made
publicly available. Subsequently, the
name was changed to The World
Factbook, which better describes
what it is.
In size, it is letter paper ?11 by 81/2
inches_ It comes in soft-cover, and
the 1984 edition, which has just come
out, consists of 274 pages plus 12
excellent maps. The price is $11.
15,500 copies
About 15,500 copies have been
printed. Most are for use within the
government. About SOO are allotted
to the Documents Expediting Project
In the Library of Congress for paid
subscribers to what is called the CIA
reference aid series, primarily li-
braries, embassies and businesses in
and outside the United States. And
4,400 copies have been made avail-
able for public sale, mainly through
the Government printing office,
Washington, D.C. 20402.
There are 190 nations or places in
the Factbook starting with Afghani-
stan and extending to Zimbabwe, Tai-
wan and the Israeli-occupied West
Bank and Gaza Strip. In between are
the Bahamas, Niger, Nigeria, Gibral-
tar, Seychelles, Gambia, Saudi Ara-
bia,North and South Korea, the two
.Germanys, France, Czechoslovakia,
Soviet Union, Mexico, the United
Kingdom, and so around the world_
The United States appears with this
disclaimer: "The Factsheet on the
U.S. is provided solely as a service to
those wishing to make rough com-
parisons of foreign-country data
with a US. yardstick. Information is
from US. open sources and publica-
tions and in DO sense represents esti-
mates by the U.S. Intelligence
Community."
Item by item
Heading each Factsheet, except
that of the United States, is a small
black-and-white map that positions
the country geographically in rela-
tion to its neighbors. The scope,
character and method of presenting
data are indicated by this sampling
on Poland:
Land: 312,612 kilometers, 49 per-
cent amble, 27 percent forest, 14 per-
cent other agricultural, 10 percent
other.
Population: 36,887,000, average an-
nual growth 0.9 percent. Religion: 95
137R000100040001-4
percent -Koman Catholic (about 75
percent practicing), 5 percent Uni-
ate, Greek Orthodox, Protestant, oth-
er. Language: Polish, no significant
dialects.
Organized labor: New government
trade unions formed after dissolu-
tion of Solidarity and all other
unions in October 1982_
Government: Official name Polish
People's Republic. Type, communist
state. Capital, Warsaw. Suffrage, uni-
versal and compulsory over age 18.
Election, every four years. March
1984 election postponed. Commu-
nists, 2.4 million (1983).
Speedy comparison
Economy: gross national product,
$186.8 billion in 1982; $5,160 per capi-
ta. 1982 growth rate, 4.8 percent. Ma-
jor industries: Machine building,
iron and steel, extractive, chemicals,
shipbuilding and food processing.
Agriculture: Self-sufficient for
minimum requirements. Main crops
? grains, sugar beets, oilseed, pota-
toes, exporter of livestock products
and sugar; importer of grains.
Exports: $15.6 billion (f.o.b. 1982),
57.7 percent machinery and equip-
ment, 26.2 percent fuels, raw materi-
als, semi-manufactures, and so on.
Major trade partners: 1982 ? 65
percent with Cominunist countries
Military manpower: Males (15-49)
9,320,000; fit for service 7,402,000.
Military budget: 201_5 billion zlo-
tys, 7.6 percent of total budget.
At the end of the Factbook is a
table on how to convert acres into
hectares, liquid pints into liters,
yards into meters, etc.
Yes, it's a useful book ? a guide to
the geography, economics and poli-
tics of nations, item by item, for
speedy comparison.
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Approved For %amp Ang)61*EregliketESR3/40-0
17 April 1983
WASHINGTON
MARTY MILLER VS THE MAPMAKERS
BY JIM ANDERSON
One determined man can make a difference.
Take Martin Miller of Silver Spring, Md., a retired Treasu'ry D4artment
official who moved the State Department and the Central Intelligence
Agency to change their maps of the Middle East to conform with U.S. policy.
It took about a year of determination, dozens of telephone calls and scores
of letters.
A J
1137R000100040001-4
But Miller won in the end. The State Department issued new policy guidance
that eventually will change the way all U.S. government maps and documents deal
with the Kingdom of Jordan and the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.
As a symbol of his victory, Miller points to the first copy of a State
Department map, printed in the latest monthly "Bulletin," that shows the West
Bank and Gaza are not part of Jordan and their "status is to be determined."
Until now, State Department maps and the annual National Basic Intelligence
Factbook put out by the CIA routinely included the occupied areas as part of
Jordan. The Factbook called the occupied areas West Jordan, which is not a term
used by the United States, or the Kingdom of Jordan.
The areas, which had been administered by Jordan since 1949, were seized and
occupied by Israel in the Six-Day war in June 1967.
By acceding at a 1974 Arab League meeting in Rabat to the Palestine
Liberation Organization taking over as sole representative of the
Palestininians, King Hussein of Jordan gave up any claim to the areas.
The 1978 Camp David summit decided that the boundaries of the area would be
settled by negotiation and there was no suggestion that the occupied areas were
part of Jordan.
The office of the State Department's Geographer, which sets the political
guidelines for all U.S. government maps, did not get the word. It continued to
put out maps that showed the occupied territories as part of Jordan and included
their 5,439 square kilometers in Jordan's total territory. The CIA and the
Defense Department followed in lock-step behind the State Department.
Then along came Miller.
He wrote his first letter Nov. 4, 1981 and got the usual treatment from the
State Department: vaguely worded letters that ignored his questions. When he got
his congressman, Michael Barnes, D-Md., to help, Barnes also received polite,
non-responsive letters from the State Department.
Writing to Barnes in July, Powell Moore, assistant secretary of state for
congressional relations, said the depiction of boundaries on government maps
'does not necessarily reflect the U.S. legal position.''
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But Moore promised every effort to make new editions "accurately reflect
U.S. policy" in the Middle East.
Nothing happened until November when Miller got a copy of a letter that Lewis
Alexander, director of the Office of the Geographer in the State Department,
sent to 10 government agencies dealing with foreign countries.
It issued new guidelines directing that the West Bank and Gaza Strip should
be shown to be different from Jordan.
Dale Peterson, a spokesman for the CIA, said that this year's Factbook will
be changed to follow those guidelines.
Score one for Marty Miller.
Alexander said his office was moving in the direction of changing the maps
anyway, but he conceded, "We were certainly prodded by Mr.. Miller to do it
sooner than we might have otherwise."
And why did Miller bother over such an arcane exercise?
"The State Department can take credit for misinforming a generation of
Americans about the status of an area which has been vital to U.S. foreign
policy," Miller said.
In addition, Miller said, it is unfair to label Israel as a transgressor on
Jordanian territory when Israel is the recognized administratitve power over an
area whose ultimate status is to be determined by negotiation.
The geographical truth-in-labeling has spread to other parts of the globe.
State Department maps now note that the U.S. government does not recognize the
Soviet claim that the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of
the Soviet Union.
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AZT= ital)
-
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'JULY 1977
1
?g.XF
ijia A1t1ie-complan
did not it trial:It:4 utr.not- going our ficiala-7of the -Ford a
was an intelligence- gap." intelligence Concern'
,
CO1b);"' fOrriiii.ilire:tar?'?Ortlie'OTku,CTiat;PYPr?IY/'4)(g.tugE
;;- ? One-of the most- publ
? ? - - ?
- - is :the 'first of !tat-zit-kw otoiii'uS"-;ntfis-ii-mjIP4;14:ima.-42.,4i, 41441.
-
. -t-4-recentliIhatthe int
- televised
:
. Defense Departi
? ?
_
Newsday Washington - pureau7 did" "nf
. - - ? -?? .,,T4r, prow poor ori
?:,--,-:7:-.;-Masliihgt0114ToP. officials',in^ -,the Carter:- to predict the
- administration say they are;'..diseatiified the Mideast:
icaliher -.of int-m-111E1*m analysts Provided 1.4.:they:.?.:1-Fr,;-;:ty_? 411 slvae not .15utPrii
n'intelligence coinnitinity-45:4',3,--7.,.$4-:',f;v..?f*.41.7-*:-Lithill5all,)!...Nixoti said
- Those officials, including White House Nationa' war "I thought basic
Security? 'Adviser '.7bignieNif-,13kzezineli,i144?0*--7-Iiiiinity:'needed
7;tai-j, of State Cyrus series of irlr6"
t41:reaching.Viair?:deska.."Qft.ezi-Jsjncit7,*04'.!4h!Oze.4::21,:t'-`-telligeriee!..expiiis:Tei
and at timea has', failed, to alert thein':ta,Ralor:::0e7-7,-;athifproblerni;',5T,:f?-!;";...4i
ilelopinents in the world Their The.te::
:-zstlear- during Cseriee=0:44ewsclay. interviews with furpation and not e
Zleading policyjnakera-and thely;.aseistante-;:ont#P.t;''--$tiviiatit:4aeana.::
kOnd former intelligencet.Officiale-,',and.looligenc4-;,-10 The fraginented
eperts on Capitol .Vq-tIt.-4.: connnun
? ---"The United States does-kern:to:hike if illation from --,reachir
?
O - ?
ar fascuiation)vitti technology_ and gedgetaikftrzefind..usable form:.
:F?jzinski-;eaid,.';t7r-viguldsayT.t.halLthe-]ArneriCat,t-;;WOrt-t-Cli43- 0 Intelligencel-aki
tination-gatberinglechniquesiaretheb!e4-:`,40.711*Isre-ciaion;.inakers eipectot them;', in "Part beCe.Vae';.thl
world?the -fi-:equipineriC:sislahselotelyretrierkal31,eilsiOn4fakerS;c10, not ask the right:Auestiona-iancti
:47?;-)Eltit'-iv--i*Iliefiinalysio.-of,,-tiie,p,if9Eniatio #140:;,,..ilf4F,4,-::,-.-tri rightii,ko.,the,CidOts of .thecagericiee4.4:-',.-14-f.;ti
important. And _I. thinkftheratis'.poV..enOngkatte4-4 0 ftkt tinies=decisiontnakers-*eiye goodjutelli;I.
Etion givedtcir the ability to gar oliatall-the--Linforeiice but disregard it for their reasons of
,-iroahon and/or polit-ice:?,,,
Secietark.Of-State (1)-PiVerheadV:100-:;'-titlasel
that ' there- is a-lprribletri-Vance--Saya theraii;t-Oo:;?=iiIrCammittee on Intellig6.ncefirst-Publii1S, iiisedfthr.1
,..mucpanfirma tion. and there ,10 a-need. to decide Oii uestion- 'pf the quality pfiptelligenc-e,-clefined,thq
and jeli"_0; 04e:oolity,-1413rqbiercc_tbi!---Wa ',-'TheY;?;041---;'(ine?tjap;,i*:-L:ArtTAN:6
,T=TriatteniE:-;=';A--% getting': tin.iely: knowledge", in the-proper:: fashion'-1,
Officials of the:: Carter White House say Are the cost and the risk justified !Jythe*iii.procP??=?.i
? ere not able' to 'obtain Itimely or adequate ?intelli
..-genre -.analyses. on such-Imatters % of , international;t7:.:1_!-;-AbOut: 80 Per cent of the ILO.: intelligence bud
isignificance as the recent invasion of zpir..pc:0-!!i-re.;.--4,1.-get...) stient:o*railitaly-affairs;',arxx)rding tniarijrii4
":?z-,..tnoval-of Soviet PreSident?Nikolai )7:._PedgOrnY;thd.-.4., forted source,: Put now decision-make are saying-7!
the strength- of.the cOnseriative;Likud Party #ktlift_.:41here toust bo greater' emphasis...in the Intelligence
? 41-sraill-lectilirl'eatFLPaigni?--tarOca4tin.g-the P"!113.47-4;.;::cleniMiniitij----on political hate lik
tityi of a ;new., hard-liae, era. in :Israel) leader4t..9;';:t!-K hell' to. predict the future,".- one Carter' laati9pal--3.11
? , f; ; ' ? ? ? ? :4. ? ri ? - . ?
. -! ? ? '-' ? ? !LI .7'??7?.k?..7,. - --? .?-??"-}
37 R000 1 00040001-4
?
_
Pattat44.
. ? .
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r1.7:111.0 Approved
4t(k EITLJ 41;
Crude Estimate
Strength in Oil Price
Isn't Likely to Last,
Many Analysts Think
Recent Rises Don't Reflect
Much Gain in Demand;
Barter Distorts Supplies
What the CIA Was Told
By YOUSSEF M. IBRAHIM
? : -?:' And ALLANNA SULLIVAN -
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREEVJ OURNAL
When last January's meeting of the Or- .
ganization of Petroleum Exporting Coun,
tries broke up in disarray,. conventional ?
wisdom in the international oil fraternity
! was that prices were heading for a slide. ?
Since then OPEC has surprised skeptics
LliY seeming to enforce at least Partial pro-'
duction : discipline..- Oil:. companies have ,
El drawn' down inventories sharply, 'suggest-
Mg they must- soon-. increase their. purr.
chases. And prices have gone up some 15%
instead of down -
'
The conventional wisdom today: Prices
are stillheading for a. slide. :"The 'bleeding
has stopped,' but the patient hasn't recov-
ered," says Lawrence Goldstein, the exec-
utive i,ice president of the New York-based
Petroleum Industry Research. Foundation.
? ?, Analysts and industry officials say the -
pressures that have pushed free-market
prices for such bellwether crude oils as
West Texas Intermediate to $29.60 a barrel
yesterday from a low of ?2.5.20 in January
are only temporary: Says one forecast;
produced. by the-Mall Street firm of Salo,.
mon Brothers Inc.: "We now see 'factors
developing, that are setting the stage for.
the next downturn."
Advantages for
If so? that is 'for. the -most Part good'
news for the-U:S....and other industrialized
nations Oil-price l_moderation has beef a
major restraint on inflation and interest
rates', and more price weakness could help
stretch out a slowing U.S., recovery, econo-
mists say. ? ??
Softening oil pried- would also be good
news for the strained international banking
system and for big- Third World debtors
that still import substantial quantities of
oil. For -debtors that export -oil, such as -
Mexico and Nigeria, the price news isn't
good, but -the , interest-rate implications'
are.
For Releasabb2i07(far.
23 April 1985
' Among the factors leading Salomon and
others to expect lower prices are sluggish
world oil demand, large amounts .of bar-
tered oil on the market, continued skepti-
cism about whether OPEC members will
stay within their production quotas, contin-
uing increases in non-OPEC production,
and the slowing rate of economic growth in
the U.S. .
But if the outlook is that grim, how
come prices are up, not down?
Russian Supplies .
One answer is that the balance of sup-
ply and demand, if not as strong as pro-
ducers might like, is much better than was
expected a few months ago when OPEC ,
seemed near collapse. "OPEC managed to i
keep prices from sliding over the cliff this
winter," notes Robert Dederick, vice presi-
dent and chief economist for Northern i
Trust Co. in Chicago, , ? _ . 1
OPEC had help. ?
A big drop in the delivery of Russian
crude oil a.nd refined oil products to West-
ern Europe, induced by domestic shortages
Trend in Oil Pikes .
Month-end spot price per barrel
of West Texas Intermediate
$81
30
29
, 28
27
26
AMJsJ ASONDJFMA
'85 - 22
and rough weather, cut supplies on the
market for much of the winter. Lastyear,
the Russians shipped member countries of
the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development as much as 2.3 million
barrels a day of oil and products, accord-
ing to the Paris-based International En-
-ergy Agency. But in the 1985 first quarter,
Russian supplies to OECD fell, to 1.8 mil.-
lion barrels a. day;
On the demand side,' an il-month coal
miners' Strike led Britain to consume an
extra 500,000 barrels of oil a day this past
quarter to generate electricity.
And; paradoxically, industry
tons of lower oil prices have supported the
current price bubble; says Philip Verleger,
a consultant with Charles River Associates
Inc. in Cambridge, Mass. Stich expecta-
tions have kept Inventories "lean and
mean," he says, noting that" ."the real
tightness during recent weeks has been for
promptly delivered Oil."?,
137R000100040001-4
Private Consultation
(The squeeze pushed up crude-oil fu
tures prices yesterday, but many traders
remained bearish for the longer term: see
page 50. On page 6 is an article on pros-
pects for increasing U.S. dependence on
energy imports.)
Most market gurus don't think the
strength in crude-oil prices can last. "We
won't have a collapse overnight, but funda-
mentals say it would be hard to prevent an
erosion over the course of the next year or
two," says Adam Sieminski, an energy
specialist at Washington Analysis Corp., a
consulting firm in the capital.
That was also the consensus at a by-in-
vitation-only meeting on the oil outlook
sponsored by the Central Intelligence
Agency two weeks ago_ A panel of 14 ex-
perts from industry. Wall Street and think
tanks answered questions from CIA and
other government-agency analysts at the
closed meeting. . .
Although opinions on the panel varied,
the majority held that prices will decline
during the next two to three years to $23 to
$25 a barrel, before starting to gather
strength by the 1990s. For the near-term,
prices may remain firm until the summer.. -
although there will be day-to-day fluctua- .
tions, panelists generally believed. ?1
One reason for 'expectations of longer-
term decline is"that recent price increases
don't seem to . reflect a recovery in world-
wide demand. The :International Energy
lAgency estimated in : its end-of-March .
Imonthly ? oil-market report that oil ? con-
sumption in OECD nations was 2.3% lower .
in the-1984 fourth quarter than a year ear-
lier. It was probably down about 2% in the.
first quarter -also, the TEA said.
Several industry officials and large in.:
!ternational, -.traders also. expect" OPEC.-
membersto exceed their production quotas
as the hire of larger oil income becomes ir-
resistible ? ? ?
!I Oil-traders also say they are seeing-an
!increase in exchanges of oil for other ?
; goods.- As a major ? Houston-based trader
notes,. "Every barrel of bartered .oil that
works its way- into the market ends by
backing' out some other oil." ? -
Over the past few weeks, a considerable 1
number of barter arrangements have been !
signed: by _Iran; Iraq, Libya and Algeria.'
Saudi Arabia is currently negotiating -a
ant swap with France to get 46 Mirage-2000
jets for $2 billion of oil, or the equiva-
lent of 70,000 barrels a day over, three -
years:. Although the Saudis have issued ? a
vague denial of some aspects of the deal,
they confirm that oil is under Consideration
as a method of payment fcir Mirages. .
Continued
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CHARLOTTE OBSERVER (N.C.)
4 October 19 78
0100040001-4
?-??" -7""r"
encies_
tas,
Bv oti'EPS"TE I NT ?
,
--observer washington sureau
WASHINGTON? There :are no female agients in
the US. Border Patrol. The4axicode-.Penalizes Work
ing wives by forcingjamilies.,with twa:!..wage-earners
to pay more
-
The Social?Security;tglyil:Serviceand-riwelfare sys-
tems discriminate: againstromen, The parinets Home
Administration regarcti-Nvomen as "one more of their
husbands' assets? But-a4artner's wife is-liable for re--
paying?Ei.lban,. even if gets no benefit from. it
These are onlf:a f 4:.iinstancesibt.Sex'discrimind-5.?
tion irk federal agenclei,;c1ted TuesdaiiiiTi-jkistiZeDe-
partment task forcreeportf,-.4.7..:-i
? :-.1??=rrf
- The?spassage--,OL.=?itheEqualRights-=!Amendment
:ERA).:Wcruld._not sialve4nost problems, said Ms. Stew-,,,,
for.clirsCtor'',:Hundreds:of Changes':
inflaWs-and zegulatiOrA.1."_.e,lrequiresiLshe-said-,i4
-
(The- Senate,- opening debate on a-rHOus
p a to extendZ-thORA ? ratification -:deadline;.:
rejectifproposa1,',..toqet4itate:leilslatures-' withdraw
approval of the measitie:)?-;V:i:
--Drew,?Days,,'Assistant_?1:attOriteygeneratin:-.charge
of the civil rightsTdiVisionaid-Zthe,taSk force dealt.
with ' eonsciOusness'-').:;:,t
including his. He-:.-confeisectlie-",:hia.sinterted:sexistilan-
guage into the Federal Register..
"f had made it- cle4'that My deputies for'all- tinie
would. have to be xrcaIes," Days -said:. !,My twO, dep-
uties- happen to,be?rnales,?but,that does not always-
have to be the ?-: ?
? The task forcet.was-,Create& by.tki.--Ford:--idminis tration and activateda.by.theCartetadministratipn
make the, governrrientniodel- f oenondiscriMinator_r
treatment of wornen4V74-4.1,=:.-4 :ilililr-*?,-:-4,Aii-.4:;c
-The-,task forcrecrininiedeled=;thiee Changes:,.;
' 4;#1.4resident,
-nation in federally assisted prograrns;?-?71:;?_.
? Congress should' extend' Title-- yr Of the 1964
Civil Rights- Act to prohibit sex diSerimination. That:
. Section forbids: other:, kinds of :discrimination, in pro-
grains using: federal fundS..
TheJustice-DepartmentshouId have authority,
r:t.64toordinate enforcement of bans :sex- discrimin
!, li?W-f_ - - 'r ?
Oneglia singled out the departments of
' -culture and -Health,-Education:laridelfare- (HEW) as
among the worst offenders...7;.1',1.,'ii..:7,?????:?-?*?,:-.::?-.Ifi.-.7""
?found that any tini e-*'i.-system...wav- se tqip
white ,it - had -benefits '':and it had bUrdens;;-it7was '
going to burden the-women".and:beriefit_thenien,:!: she-
:
observed.
'Because-who were- theliwomennie.:.woinen Were-;
f? poet.: They'.veri,i-olek.:They:hadcustody.of children,:
?alley had the worst. jobsi:?They got the-'worst4.nav
-
They got' fewer'Prorno.tions.:When?lbeygot olcLthe
-
got the least -moneyte, . .
'?_ The 'marriage penalty ix,. the ta_r_laws,':','discour
ages the wives in lower and middle Income famili
from seeking employment and, thus- perpetuates th
stereotypical: ,Viewriof . _women - liornernakers
the report =
:.:.- ? -..,,-
In
=Tr
thi::itiStrai.13ePaitmiiit-,:ln addition to:-thi-,Eii
'der-PatroL:Ms.;0-rieglia said the FBI: has a bids agai
women agents,' but is improving.?,--,-,
_ ? -
A pamphlet- describirj,ga,
'scribed' byythe:ta.S1 ic?fprce as nore like-an abbrevi
-ated editionof Vogue rnagaifile.'.than.;a.---governmen
reruit1ng brochure
The .pamphlet,"showed,tonlyTwomen,:r&the:- repo
"while not discussing- other inotef:Iucrativi-fo
of professional. employment for-.-womeiri.
hinting that men may also.beome CIA.-secretaries
2 =2,2,-.11.---r 57-Vs-;:" ? ^
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cf,
re,
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Phone! [phone]
Mr. David R. Gergen
Editor
U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT
2400 N Street, N.W.
Washington, D. C. 20037-1196
Dear Dave:
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
1 April 1986
1100040001-4
On page 75 of the 7 April edition of U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT, you tell
your readers:
"Intelligence reports. The CIA makes some unclassified publications
available. Included are studies of most countries--from Albania to
Zimbabwe. Particularly popular are maps of places such as Afghanistan,
Central America and Lebanon. For a free catalog, send a postcard to:
CIA Public Affairs Office, Washington, D.C. 20505."
Your information is incorrect. CIA does not provide studies or maps
directly to the public. The information CIA makes available to the public can
be obtained only through one of the following outlets:
NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE (NTIS)
U. S. Department of Commerce
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, Virginia 22161
or call: NTIS Order Desk: [phone]
('se NTIS document number (PB number) when ordering)
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE (GPO)
Washington, D. C. 20402
or call: [phone]
(Use GPO stock order number when ordering)
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UM& Release 2002/06/24: CIA-RDP9
r PAGE C-2.,
WASHINGTON TIMES
31 May 1984
JOHN CHAMBERLAIN
0-01137R000100040001-4
'Raising the stakes
1 ,
the Persian Gulf
onald Reagan speaks reas-
suringly about the
--Situation in the Persian
Gill!: where both Iraq and
:Iran have-been attacking oil tankers
carryirig 'crude oil bound for west-
:ern imarkets.-"We have not volun-
;met-WIC-intervene," Reagan said at
.1116s-press conference the other
"tiOr:have we been asked."
? -Vie 'laid-back quality of Rea-
4anHs ,reaction is understandable
lovlien one considers the sources of
oupoil imports. In February, which
wgshefore the attacks on the tank-
, embegan, the leading oil importers
to:the_ United States were Mexico-
i; (1); Canadir(2), Venezuela (3), the
;Virgi.n. Islands (4) and Algeria (5).
' Cturliet- import requirements stood
,at2sonie 28 .percent. Imports were
up over- a year ago by some 32
!percent, hut the 716,000 barrels of
oil-:per :day we have been getting
from :the Persian Gulf represents
:only S percent of total US. needs
an4=44ercent of our total oil
!imports.
Such statistics are comforting,
but only up to a point. Reagan is
right to de-emphasize the military
dangers to the United States in the
Persian Gulf flare-up, but we live in
a world in which the price of energy
is set in places like the Rotterdam
spot market, over which we have no
control. With the energy compo-
nent in production rising in cost,
President Reagan's hope to keep the
inflation rate down could easily go
glimmering.
Moreover, we live in a world of
allies ? Japan and Western Europe
? to whom we have promised sup-
port from our own oil reserves if the
Middle East is closed off. Japan and
Western Europe need 7 million bar-
rels of oil a? day (2.9 million for
Japan, 4.3 million for Western
Europe) from Middle East spigots.
If, in extremity, we were called
upon to keep our allies going from
our own sources, our motorists
would once again be paying
through the nose at the local, gas
pump.
The insurance rates on tankers
sent into the Persian Gulf have tri-
pled in the past few weeks, adding
from 20 to 50 cents to the spot price
of oil, which now stands at $30.50
for a barrel. This is not a forbidding
increase, but if there were to be
total disruption of the Middle East,
oil prices would rise by $5 to $10 a
barrel. This would strike at the
heart of the world economic recov-
ery.
CIA figures bearing on probable
reaction to a Persian Gulf. cutoff ar
partially comforting. The produc-
ing nations outside of the Persian
Gulf area have the capacity to
increase daily production by some
3.5 million barrels a day. An addi-
tional million barrels a day could be
channeled through a Saudi Arabian
pipeline to the Red Sea. Iraq has
been exporting oil through a pipe-
line running north through -flukey.
But there would still be a shortfall
of 3.5 million barrels a day to be
accounted for out of the 8 million
Middle East dependency figure.
From the long-term point of view,
crises such as the one posed by the
current turn of the Iraq-Iran war
work to break down the OPEC oil
monopoly. Mexico and Canada
benefit at the expense of the Middle
East. But the United States, though
it has had plenty of forewarning,
has lagged woefully in preparing
for possible renewed international
oil stringency.
Congress has been monumen-
tally stupid in its refusat.to_p_as!_a,
natural gas deregulation bill that
would spark a renewed search for
gas resources-and so cut down on
our dependence on oil imports. Our
legislators have also been all too
negligent about such things as off-
shore oil leasing. The practice of
tacking moratoriums on develop-
ment operations to appropriations
bills is pernicious in the cumulative
_
-roadblocks that are put in the way
of adding to our known oil reserves.
Currently some 53 million acres
are locked up by congressional
rtioratoriums.
Maybe, now that the Ayatollah
r Khomeini is treading on our toes,
k Congress will begin to wake up. But
don't bet on it? as Goethe or some-
one said, the gods themselves con-
tend with stupidity in vain.
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T C LE APPEARED
ON PAGE
NEW YORK TIMES
16 JULY 1981
137R000100040001-4
??C
einbergef. Hopes to Publicize
Soviet issue ]Jath
: -
1 By RICHARD HALLORAN
..s. . seeiaralWet4a0YeekTene. - -
I WASHINGTON,. July 15 With the
!Soviet Union apparently deploying, its
'. new medium-range SS-20 nuclear mis-
, sites at a -rapid pace, Secretary of De-
- ferse Caspar-W. Weinberger has. be-
come involved in a dispute with intern- ?
grace agencies over publicizing -evi-
dance of the deployment, according to
Administration officials._
Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig
Jr. a eserted in a speech_ in New York
yesterday that thaScviet Union already
had 750 nuclear warheads deployed on
the SS-20's_ which- was considerably
more-thea previously known, and said!.
1.
that "the pace of the Soviet buildup lain-
The Administration officials-here said,
that the Soviet Union had deployed 235 to
.250 missile launchers, which supported
Mr. Haig's statement since each missile
:can carry three warheads. Two-thirds of
the launchers are aimed at Western Eu-
rope and a third at China or other tar-
gets in Asia, the officials said. Japanese
officials, noted today; according to press
-.reports from Tokyo, that 55-20's could
reach any target in Japan. _ r.
. ? e-
' - Deployenent PDS:Ably Greater e-
Mr. Haig.and Administration officials
may have understated the deployment.
Souraes with access to Intelligence re-
ports said that each launcher might be
armed with three or four missiles. They
:said, however, that the-intelligence on
that was uncertain_ - .: -- ' . -- . ? ' -,e- -
: In any event, Mr; Weinberger has
..b-een anxious.: the officials said,, to make _
I
'public photographs and maps of the SS- I
20 deployments in an effort to generate
support here and especially in Western I
Europe for' a United States plan to
counter thein'.'"i ? ' I
'That plan calls for deploying Pershing
2 = ballistic missiles and Tomahawk
cruise missiles' in Western : Europe,
beginning in 1983. Britain, West Germs-
ny, and Italy have agreed to have them
on their soil, despite political opposition,
butother nations have refused. ? ? ? s.e?'?
The officials said; however: that the-
Defense Intelligence Agency...and' the I
Central Intelligence Agency; had ada-
- man tly refused to permit any publica-
tion- of the evidence. The officials said
that the intelligence agencies feared dis-
closureof their methods and the quality
.P'--'--'nfonmatin.
?
Weinberger Briefed Europeans
The idea of publicizing the evidence
arose last April, after Mr. Weinberger
had sponsored what was said to have _
been aativid and suCceesful briefing on
the. Soviet threat to European defense,
? ministers in Bonn'. Mr. Weinberger re-:
peated the briefing a " month later hi
Brusselsea: ' - ? -
? In both cases, the European nainisters
emerged from the briekfing to exclaimon the precision and breadth of the brief-
ing and let it be known that they had
asked Mr. Weinberger to make public as
much information as possible so that
they could persuade their own citizens of
the extent of the threat - eeza
- Mr. -Weinberger told :American- re-
porters at the time that he agreed with
his European colleagus and would see -
what could be done. BUCEe-Faii findim=
mediate resistance, the officials said,
with his -own.ntelligence- people and
with. the which lain charge. of
space satellite reconnaissanceee
. e Memo for Intelligence Agency
tf-:: After several months of tallts,:the A i-
. ,
_ - - . .
cials? said;"Mra- Weinberger recently
wrote a memorandum to the Defense In.
telligence Agency, which is nominally
under his control, asserting that they
;must prove th
to, him why, e evidence
could not be publicized. e
7 The officials said that the intelligence
peepleWeee adamant in 'refieeing?lee,
-
L.,
. case any revelation
u could give thei
..able them to hide e'l.e frorsn;
Soviet Union information that would e
- United States satellites or other sensors..
It was the age-old .conilicte.said one i
.. senior official, between the desire of the I
' policy-maker to use information to per-
suade skeptics to accept his course of ac..i
' eke end the dire of-Intelligence- offi-
cials to protect their ability to collect in-.
formation. _at.
Mr Weinberger, the ;officials said
s..evas groping for a middle road in which
maps might be generalized and only the..
amost obvious picturesaused. But they
? , said the intelligence agencies had dug in
theirheels even against that.:;--;
....eeThree Versions of the S5-247?
. . _ .5.;
.
The SS-20 missile conies in three ver-
sions, according to a study_ done by the ?
General Dynamics Corporation, a lead-
ing military contractor, and builder of
cruise missiles.' .0ne can ? carry a 1.5-
' inegaton nuclear, warhead for 3,500.
miles while a second, can. carry three
. smeller -warheads'- aimed- at separate.
targetsaA third can carry.a 50-kiloton
? warhead 4,600 miles. ??
A kiloton is the equivalent of 1,00 tons
?'of TNT. A megaton is tile equivalent of a
million tons. The atomic bomb that ex-
ploded over Hiroshima in 1945 was in the
range of 12 to 15 kilotonse ? ?
The ? SS-20.- is - a two-stage: solid-hie]-
; ballistic missile- that can be-launched
from a tracked transporter:-
? At the--beginning of .1980, the Soviet
? Union had. deployed100- missile launch-
ers. That number grew to 160 by fall that
_ year, according to intelligence sources.
In January 1981, Harold-Brown, in his
.? final report to Congress: as, Secretary of
-.Defenseesaid the number had grown to
.- 180. Mr.; Weinberger.--reperted in April
that 220: launchers- had beee'deployed.
with the number having. moved-up.to 235i
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U. S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT
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; 7 :1
I
ki .1v,4 LLdJj
,
* * *
Troubles of the CIA have all but dried
'up an important source of the Agency's
information?exchanges with intelli-
gence services of U.S. allies. Word has
been passed from abroad that there's
little chance of renewal of a free flow
of information until congressional in-
vestigations of the CIA have been
completed.
The operating budget of the Senate
committee investigating the CIA has
zoomed from the original $750,000 to
nearly 1.2 million dollars. About 90
staff members are now at work, includ-
ing a battery of experienced interroga-
tors, plus a number of specialists with
CIA or FBI experience.
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ARTMF kk.MARED
WASHINGTON TIMES
. 16 July 1985
Misinformation on dis
ARNOLD BEICHMAN ? ?
I
recently read a review, pub-
lished in a certain magazine to
-
be identified later, of a book,
' Dezinformatsia, by two
respected academics, Professor
Richard H. Shultz Jr. of "'lifts Uni-
Varsity's Fletcher School of Diplo-
macy and Roy Godson of
Georgetown University. The review
made the following serious charges
against this book:
. ? The book was said to use "spe-
sious arguments to prove the ?byl-
aw."
4- ? It misrepresents reality to prove
a simplistic point.
? It is "misguided," exhibits a
"total lack of understanding" about
Clausewitz, shows "a superficial
understanding of current history
and the Soviet Union."
? It didn't "fairly report" the con-
tent of Soviet journals, it has treated
the subject "irresponsibly" it suffers
from "extraordinarily naive
assumptions" and "erroneous his-
wry.?
? And the book was said "ulti-
mately" to serve "neither
scholarship nor the national inter-
est."
Such harsh language about the
published work of academics can be
defined as a form of character assas-
sination, since it questions their
honor as teachers and researchers.
For my part, to he even harsher, I
would say that this review could,
with little editing, have appeared in
a Soviet publication.
Now, then, would you like to guess
in what left-wing, pro-Soviet, Pro-
gressive journal this book review
appeared? If you're very smart and
sophisticated, you might try and
guess, but you'd be wrong. I'll have
to tell you:
This book review appeared in an
official magazine of the government
?
of the United States, a magazine pub-
lished by the Central Intelligence
Agency ? yes, by the CIA under the
supervision of the Deputy Director-
ate for Intelligence that is responsi-
ble for all CIA analyses of world
affairs.
The publication, a quarterly
called Studies in Intelligence, is an
"in-house" publication. It is not dis-
tributed publicly since some articles
are classified; others, such as the
book review I am discussing, are
unclassified. The essay-review, in
the magazine's winter 1984 issue,
was written by Avis Boutell, a CIA
analyst, who works for the Foreign
Broadcast Information Service.
When I read the Shultz-Godson
book some months ago to prepare
my own favorable review, I found it
a cool, scholarly examination of
Soviet propaganda and disinfor-
mation strategies. So did a number
of other distinguished Sovietologists
and publicists, such as Professors
Adam Ulam and Uri Ra'anan, Dr.
Robert Conquest, and Professor Sid-
ney Hook, who wrote the laudatory
introduction.
The book, now in its third edition,
included what I regarded as highly
informative interviews with defec-
tors who had specialized, while in
the service of the KGB in the
U.S.S.R. and Czechoslovakia, in
"active measures." The Soviet
strategy of "active measures"
involves, for the most part, covert
disinformation as "a non-attributed
or falsely attributed communica-
tion, written or oral, containing
intentionally false, incomplete, or
misleading information [frequently
combined with true information],
which seeks to deceive, misinform,
and/or mislead the target," accord-
ing to-the Shultz-Godson definition.
- In other- words, the book
describes a panoply of Soviet tactics
? ?
?
?gie to marnpu ate t e marl in the
democracies, the use of "agents of
influence," sponsorship of clandes-
tine radio broadcasts, and use of
international front organizations.
These strategies and tactics are
excellently described in this impor-
tant book.
Not only is-Studies in Intelligence
an official government magazine,
but it also is published by a U.S.
secret service. It therefore must be
assumed that whatever is published
therein represents the official yibw
of the CIA or, at the very least, the
point of view of CIA analysts. As an
analogy, a Voice of America edito-
rial, for example, must be approved
by responsible State Department
officials before it can be read on the
air.
If the CIA book review reflects
the political culture of the CIA and
the world in which its analysts live,
then some of the egregious errors
about Soviet intentions made by the
CIA over the past 15 or more years,
errors which have been publicly dis-
cussed in the press and by the two
congressional committees on intelli-
gence oversight, become under-
standable.
One could take apart, paragraph
by paragraph, this CIA book review
to demonstrate its use of the rhetoric
of overkill.
Here I want merely to deal with
the political approach of a CIA ana-
lyst whose views, no matter what the
CIA might say, seem to harmonize
with the agency's ethos, which I pray
is not that of William J. Casey, CIA
director. That this review got past
Mr. Casey, I can understand; he has
more important problems to deal
with. But isn't there somebody in his
organization who has the wit, under-
standing, and common decency to
realize that the language used to dis-
cuss the Shultz-Godson book might
be better suited to a review of Hit-
ler's Mein Kampf?
llike this sneering, reductive sen-
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WASHINGTONIAN
December 1983
God and Man at
?
How Does an Intelligence Agent Reconcile L
Religion? The CIA Has Thought a Lot About It, and Has Concluded
137R000100040001-4
That the Bible and God Are on Their Side.
By Dale Van Atta
Afur the cornerstone of the Cen-
tral Intelligence Agency's head-
quarters in Langley, Virginia, had
been laid in 1959, CIA Director Al-
len Dulles cast about for a suitable
inscription. What message, he won-
dered, would be most apropos to grace
the foyer of this $46 million monument
to spying? Eventually Dulles settled on
the Biblical quotation now carved in
marble on one side of the entrance hall;
"And ye shall know the truth, and the
truth shall make you free. John VIII-
XXXII ."
Ironic words, given that the CIA is the
one American institution whose mission
often demands distortion of the truth.
The agency plants misinformation in
newspapers, magazines, and books
throughout the world; routinely its agents
misrepresent themselves to gather the in-
formational gold that is the currency of
espionage; it once encouraged its em-
ployees to lie to Congress; and it has
enshrined slippery former director Rich-
ard Helms as the CIA soldier most wor-
thy of emulation. That so many CIA em-
ployees miss the irony of the Biblical
inscription is testimony to the capacity
of human beings to disregard a moral
code when they're in the service of a
cause or of a state.
Most CIA employee recruits hear the
"basic speech," during which instruc-
tors, describing espionage as a worthy
calling, proclaim that to be patriots they
must work in silence and without ac-
claim. The speech calls spying the wcdd's
second-oldest profession ("and just as
honorable as the first"), adding that God
Himself founded the calling when Moses
sent leaders of the twelve tribes to "spy
out the land_ of Canaan."
In a less well-known reference, CIA
officials like to note that America may
owe her existence to the covert action of
Pierre-Augustin Caron de Beaumar-
Dak Van Ana is a Jack Anderson associate
specializing in national-security issuesot4iP11Ve
the OA.
chais, author of The Marriage of Figaro
and The Barber of Seville.
It was Beaumarchais who persuaded
a reluctant King Louis XVI to aid the
American Revolution by making it ap-
pear that the French funding came from
private citizen Beaumarchais, not from
the French government. In a persuasive
letter to the king, which is in the CIA's
Historical Intelligence Collection, the
dramatist presented the moral case for
covert action:
"Generally speaking there is no doubt
that any idea or project that violates jus-
tice must be rejected by a man of integ-
rity. But, Sire, State policy is not the
same as private morality. . . .
"If men were angels, we ought no
doubt to despise or even detest politics.
But if men were angels, they would have
no need for religion to enlighten them,
or laws to govern them, or soldiers to.
subdue them, and the earth, instead of
being a living image.of hell, would itself
be a region of heaven. But in the end we
must take them as they are
&Alma* ION* Q? sic. ? irt- P
just among the wicked and to remain
?
good among the wolves would soon be
devoured along with his flock."
The Frenchman's point that coven ac-
don?and intelligence itself?is a "nec-
essary evil" is further emphasized by
CIA instructors who eulogize one of his
American contemporaries, Nathan Hale,
the Revolutionary War hero who, posing
as a Dutch schoolteacher behind British
lines, was captured and hanged for spying.
His statue stands outside CIA headquar-
ters today, and his words have been so
inspirational to some agents that one for-
mer senior official carded this Hale speech
in his wallet: "I wish to be useful, and
every kind of service, necessary to the
public good, becomes honorable. by being
necessary. If the exigencies of my coun-
try demand a peculiar service, its claims
to perform that service are imperious."
From Hale's day until the founding of
the CIA in 1947, this country had re-
sisted establishing a full-time intelli-
gence organization. Pearl Harbor and
%if), .Witrnbbikyormeieryi overcame
ericri 'reluctance. Though public ap-
prove] of the CIA has never been whole-
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May 1983
000100040001-4
LACol Robert Mattingly Wins Heinl Award
Results of the third annual Colonel Mr. J. Robert Moskin?as "the best
Robert D. -Heinl, Jrward'"iiii.r;e'- article pertinent to MarineCorps his-
Marine Corps History were an- tory" published in 1982. LtCol Mat-
flounced on 5 April at a meeting of .. tingly is an intelligence officer sta-
the Board of Directors of the Marine tioned in the Washington area. A fre-
:-, _
Coms Historical Foundation.'.quent contributor to the GAZETTE,
This year's prize, $1,000 and 'a' his latest GAZETTE article and book
plaque, was awarded to LtCol Robert review appeared in the Mar83 issue.
E. Mattingly for "Who Knew Not in addition to picking this year's
Fear," an article that appeared in winner, the Historical Foundation se.
Studies in Intelligence, a quarterly lected 2 of the 33 articles nominated
publication of the CIA. The article for the Heinl Award for honorable
recounted the World War Il exploits mention. Capt R.S. Moore's "Ideas
of a Marine OSS officer, fir& Oriiz; and Direction: Building Marine
who ofxraterin- Nortn Africa and Corps Amphibious Doctrine" and
France behind German lines during the late BGen R.H. Williams' "Those
World War II. Mattingly's article was Controversial Boards," both from
chosen by a panel of three judges? the Nov82 GAZETTE, were singled out
Ven F.P. Henderson, USMC(Ret), for this distinction. As announced in
1 Allan R. Millen, USMCR, and the Apr83 GAZETTE, p.12, Cant
Moore recently was chosen also as the
?
winner of the first MajGen Harold
W. Chase Prize Essay Contest. This
most recent example of his writing
ability appears on p.61 of this issue.
In further recognition of notewor-
thy Marine-related historical writing,
the Foundation presented a special
award in the form of a plaque to
Leatherneck magazine, commending
Editor Ronald D. Lyons and the en-
tire Leatherneck staff for the fine
historical material that appears with
regularity on its pages. 13Gen George
L. Bartlett, executive director of the
Marine Corps Association and pub-
lisher of Leatherneck, accepted the
award at a luncheon following the
meeting of the Historical Founda-
tion's directors.
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wk:11+,prilS
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TW YO T. MI,: S
20 1-:,,tY ,?7 7
?
PrL,sident Carter, who ro.a.:1,:t
meat after a three-r-ionth
White House, the Stat.
Pentagon arid the
'Agency, said: "The virtto2!lo
spread of convention-1i weeccy.1.;
ens stability in every regicm the Von:LI.. -
Total arn2.3 sales in recent ET.; have I
risen to over $20 billion, io-:d United
States accounts for more t;1.1r, !
; of this amount. lOacause we -.!..o-o:te. -L722
L; EXPORTS TO BP 'EXCFPT:ONfil! world market to such a cl72gree, 1 beileoe
i! that the 1.7nitecl Status' ro4o, anri
take the first step."
Burden Will Lie on Those Favoring
Deals, Which Must Clearly Abet'
National Sacurity Interests
? By BERNARD WEINRAUB
S2,Ct3 eYaw 'a-orx :1=e3
WASHINGTON, May 19 ? president
Carter, citing the re.sponsibilities borne
by the United States as the world's -lar2,- 1
est arms dealer, announced broad -o-a'.:ss-
ores today to restrict sales of waa000.,..s
abroad.
They include a reduction in saes after
this year, prohibitions on the developroen
of advanced weapons systems sololy ten
export and On an Anierican 7.-ole as tie.
"first supplier" of advance ,.!-,e.c_oioo: to
-
coiintries seeking "new or significontiv
higher combat capability," trod the
tioi of production agreements with ether
r countries "for significant weapons."
The President said in a policy stateraeot
that "the United States wilt henceforth,
view an-ns transfers as an excepti000l
foreign policy implement, to be used only
: in instances where it can be clearly
. demonstrated that the transfer contrib-
utes to our national security interests."
He added: "We will continue to utiltze
arms transfers to promote our. security
and the security of our close foleiifs,
in the future, the. burden of -perst:asioa
wilt be on those who favor a partlettiar
arms sale, rather than those who oppi-or34 .
it." .
'Historic Responsibilities'
The statement made it clear that the
restrictions were applicable to all nations ;
except those with which the United!
States has "major defense . Trouties,'!i
among them the North Atlantic Treaty;
Orz,raniza.tion countries, Japan, .Australia.;
and New Zealand. It sal:1 the Unitodi
States remain faithful to cur treaty
. obligations, end v;i11 honor our ii.oitoric;
; respossi6ilities to assure the security ofi
the state of Israel."
Shifting Burden of Persoasion.
The White House said the United State;
would begin calks soon with tlie
Union, Britain, France ancl C.-erroa-
ny, the other major suppliers, concernirg
a possible agreement on meastires..F.o:
multilateral action aimed at rtoiocing
sales.
How the new policy d].fft,z-s hroad!
from the programs of previous Admin.
trations remains vague reocel-oi in the
President's stated commitment to
the burden of persuasion to these who
favor a sale rather than to tiocse
oppose it.
Jessica. Tot:lin:an, who the c,!7fice
of "global issues" in the Nzitionei
7R000100040001-4
to Council stiff, said at a VifCte House I
a suhsiaio-ial re,.luction in sales. She
briefing that the oolicy n".31111: in I
:added that sales in the. 1977 ftscaI year
were in the range of $8.5 biii:on to $1-0
billion.
Commercial .s7:les of military equip-
estimated at 53.5 billion, were
placed under stricter- licensing require--;
ments but largely excluded from the neW
_pOliCV.. Miss Tuchmart said that those
transactions generaLy did not ineiode so-
phisticated equipment. .
It was emphasized that 'weapons in the
pipahne?estimated at 532 billion?would I
not be affected, serving, Miss Tuchman
said, as a "huilt-Lt cushion" for the arms:
industry. She said the White House be-
lieved the verall impact on the
economy would be minimal.
Because of what was described as thei
special relationship with Israel, ? Miss!
Tuchman made it plain that the policy'
would largely exempt it. 'While the policy
bars joint production agreements of sig-
nificant weapons, for exampie,President
Carter recently opened the possibility of
an Israeli role in building the American
F-16 fighter plane. There are joint produc-
tion arrangements on the plane with four
NATO nations?Denmark, Norway, Bel-
gium and the Netherlands.
The President's statement listed the fol-
lowing controls:
c"The dollar volume of new commit-
ments for weapons and weapons-related
items in FY 1978 will be reduced from
the FY 1977 total."
United States will not be the
first supplier to introduce into a region
newly developed, advanced weapons sys-
tems which would create a new or signifi-
caotly'higlier combat capability."
ir.-Development or significant modifica-
tion of advanced weapons systems solely
for export will not be permitted."
1,1-Coproduction agreements for signifi-
cant weapons, equipment and major com-
ponents are prohibited.
of sale for certain, weapons, equipment
c"The United States, as a condition
or major components, may stipulate that
we will not entertain any requests for
retransfers."
Israel Is Largely Excluded
CErnbassies and military representa-
tives "will not promote the sale of arms,"
and weapons dealers and agents in the
Unied States will work under tighter re-
strictions, wirh the State Department au-
thorizing all sale.s.
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ART Art. NEW YORK TIMES
ON PAGE 13 FEBRUARY 1983
Set Up a Special,
High.,Level Agency
By JAKE GARN
F-Cutrientif:the administration of ex-
port controls is far removed from the
policy-making levels of Government.
TRADE with the Soviet Union is in So instead of a flexible organization
our national interest. In addition able to respond quickly to national
to increased jobs and enhanced needs, we have a system that required
earnings to be reinvested in research American exporters to make 76,077
and development, -trade ties with the export license applications in fiscal
Soviet bloc countries can have an im- Year L982, with 98.8 percent eventually
portant, though limited, effect toward 'being granted. With nearly every ap- .
mcxierating Soviet behavior. plication approved, baw many of
It seems clear that one of the factors those were in fact tumecessary7
that has thus tar prevented the soviet At ..the same time, one wonders
Union from invading Poland has been ;where our export control efforts have
a fear of disrupting trade relations been directed when we receive
with the West. -_ gence reports 'listing the advances in
This assertion can be exaggerated,. -computer, laser, electronics_antisub-
however, and often has been. But it is , marine warfare, advanced avionics, I
undeniable that American ?trade and TriarlY other critical technologies !
levers.ge over the Soviet Union has that 'the awaits-have obtained from
greatly decreased. In fact, recent his- WeStern =rats- - _ ? ,
tory has shown the West to be more ante L948, several Congressional
-economically vulnerable to the Soviet committees_ have -erliciaed the blade-
learcierof oureeport control system,
A
137R000100040001-4
THE intelligence community re-
port made the following conclu-
sion: "The massive, well-
planned and well-coordinated Soviet
program to acquire Western tech-
nology through combined legal and
Illegal means poses a serious and
growing threat to the mutual security
interests of the United States and its
allies. In response, the West will need
to organize more effectively than it
has in the past to protect its military,
Industrial, commercial and scientific
communities."
? Our NATO allies will not improve ?
their export control operations until 1
we get our system operating as it i
should. When we can offer them a sys-
tem whereby East-West trade can be
increased, while the control of critical
technologies is enhanced, we will find
them very ready to cooperate. ,
With an effective, high-priority
agency in place, such as the Office of' .
Strategic Trade, we can reduce the'
fears of giving critical advantages to
the Soviet Union. We will thereby
have removed a major obstacle to our
trade and be in a position to expand.
trade with the Soviet, bloc, insuring
that such trade is beneficial to Ameri-
can Diaeresis. ,_ ---,t--: _ ? II.
has rot been the result of the inhalant Administered by low4eval officials.,,
itatare of _trade with the East, but The criticism has come to a heed with Utah, is Gar; RePabitcon of
ember of-our failure to organize ad- merit mimes Imm the General Ac- isclwrman of the Senate Bank-
iiquately to insure that such trade is: A:Conant' Office and .7the 'Commerce sIWI-un"n4tee. ? ? -
mutually beneficial. :Department's inspector general, that
_In the spring of Igazi the Athettah meat administr-atinn has remained
'intelligence community issued .a7re:' latzelytmehonsoft.Overtbspost three
port evaluating the effects of the list , &cadet; .
10 years, concluding in part that "the _7 With the Itiicalt-Adminis-
: Western military ? expenditures intim Act expirtng thisyear, the Sea-
needed to overconie or defend against Me Banking Committee is correatlY
the milltary -capabilities derived by com.aderiag a Prat:mai that 17 of my
the acquisMon of Western technology tolicalgurs =II put forward to ole-
far outweigh the West's earnings from vaiwthe Priority given to export ad-
the legal sales to the Soviets of its'. Ministration.-Our proposal would
.._ equipment ind technoiogy." Fred C. -Place_ff_ht a frifttd3' visible, indePend-
? Me, tinder Secretor" of Deferse Toin, est ..Federal agency that would have
Policy, has indicated that the price:,the administration of ter export con-
- tag for this failure could be tens of WI- :Int 'alwaysIts nab responsibility.
bons of dollars, if not much more.- _ This agency Would be named the Of-
American trade with the Soviet blac -TiceorPiategic Trade. In director.
? is fatmdering uixe the recognition of ;lam* he a memberorthelialioold se-
the cost of East-West trade .coupled :_ctit*Vouncll, where he Could insure
i.with the inentaticinal-inability to re- ',:thatatniiiikaiaCthtlOest levels of
"...gond adequatelYm _these costs. Is* GOvetiomot wasbeingtirocced incur.
7portent national' inbiristix.:441-4t=1;e4portAOM281,:_strittOgy,.:we'beheeel
- stake, and if theUrdted States is Illarlbalyzasace:tira oiernmental
able to afford ever-increasing defeat* .bigh-Jaiture and yrfth
COStS ?and that is Clearly the Case:? :day:today inifolveteent in export ad-.
_ then a much more effective export :ministration would go a long way W.-
-control system will be needed. :ward insuring that export control poll-
- cies accorded with the realities of the
International trading environment,
and that the mistakes in the recent
controls against the Soviet pipeline
would not be repeated. ?
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WASHINGTON TIMES
15 October 1985
137R000100040001-4
Diverse 'Euroterrorists' =tea
in 'global assault' against West
LePaN res
s 14 NTIMES
Terrorist groups in Western
Europe. including some with diverse
Political objectives. are cooneratina
in a new phase of bombings and kill-
ings directed against the United
_2....ates NATO and Western industrial
targets, according to intelligence
reports and security analysts.
The effort appears to be part of a
larger, coordinated plan to "expel"
U.S. interests ? both military and
political ? from key areas of the
world, the sources warn.
The new "Euroterrorists," accord-
ing to these sources, also are aiming
tags against NATO installations
beginning in 1984. This three-way
linkage has security experts con-
vinced that the Euroterrorists have
embarked on a new strategy of
transnational coordination and
cooperation.
"Their alliance is one of neces-
sity" said Dr. Avigdor Haselkorn. a
senior analyst at Analytical Assess-
ments corp. in Los Angeles. "It is a
question of tacTas, covert activities
rather than ideological linkage."
Robert Kupperman, a terrorism
expert at Georgetown University's
Center for Strategic and Interna-
tional Studies, added: "All of this
business is intended to introduce
increased uncertainties within
to destabilize the Atlantic alliance, NATO. None of these groups is large
stir anti-U.S. sentiments and weaken enough or capable of causing
Europe's defense industries, immense physical injuries. The pur-
And while many European terror- pose is destablization." -
ist communiques have stated that Earlier this year, Rene Audran,
their enemy is "Western imperialist director of international arms sales
targets;' this in effect means "U.S. at the French Defense Ministry, was
imperialism," several experts said. shot and killed outside his home
Earlier this year two principal ter- near Paris. A week later, Ernst Zim-
rorist organizations ? West Ger- mermann, an executive with a Ger-
many's Red Army Faction and man engineering firm that
France's Direct Action ? issued a manufactures engines for NATO
statement saying that they were cre- tanks and aircraft, was assassinated'
ating a joint "political-military in Munich.
front." While Direct Action claimed
The RAE an outgrowth of the out- responsibility for the two attacks,
lawed Baader-Meinhof gang, and officials believe that members of the
Direct Action took responsibility for RAF carried out the killings, with
Direct Action providing logistical
support.
The attacks ? large and small ?
are showing no signs of letting up.
Western analysts and officials point
to the recent spate of bombings in
West Germany, France and Belgium
as indications that the terrorists are
continuing to target industrial,
political and NATO facilities.
Last week in Brussels, for exam-
ple, a car bomb went off in front of
the headquarters of the Brussels gas
and electricity company, shattering
all of the building's windows. The
Fighting Communist Cells claimed
responsibility for the attack and for
15 previous bombings in Belgium.
Over the weekend another blast
went off outside the headquarters of
the steel company. An anonymous
caller told police the Fighting Com-
munist Cells were responsible, but
detonating a car bomb in August that
killed two Americans and injured 20
others at the U.S. Rhein-Main Air
Force Base in Frankfurt. The terror-
ists apparently also had murdered a
U.S. soldier in West Germany to
obtain his identity papers to smug-
gle the bomb onto the heavily-
guarded base.
The following month three mobile
radar units at a U.S. air base in
southern West Germany were
destroyed by bombs. Security offi-
cials blamed the RAF for the attack.
The RAF and Direct Action have
both used explosives stolen from
Belgium.
Both groups are believed to have
strong ties to another terrorist
group in Belgium called the
Fighting Communist Cells. That
group has staged a series of bomb-
authorities said it could have been a
"copy cat" attack perpetrated by
others.
In the past two weeks West Ger-
many also has been hit with a spate
of fire bombs. Six large department
stores in Hamburg were hit, as was
a car dealership and a botanical
research institute in Cologne.
A group calling itself the
Revolutionary Cells, believed tied to
the RAF, took responsibility for the
blasts in Cologne and indicated that
its intended target was not the
botanical research institute, but the
Genetic Engineering Institute next
door.
Analysts note that a Dutch manual
for sabotage has been circulating in
several West European countries.
Recommending "direct action"
against some 270 agents and subsid-
iaries of U.S. firms in Europe, the
manual draws attention to those
companies involved in genetic
research into seeds and crops, which
it terms a capitalist plot against the
Third World. It could not be immedi-
ately determined if the Genetic
Engineering Institute in Cologne
was listed in the manual.
Terrorism experts here and
abroad believe that the resurgence
in Euroterrorism is due in part to the
failure of the "peace movement" to
halt NATO's deployment of U.S. Per-
shing and cruise missiles in Western
Europe.
Many of the anti-nuclear activ-
ists, the experts say, have grown
cynical and have been recruited by
the more hardened terrorist groups
into supporting ? and participating
in ? direct attacks on military and
political targets.
It is believed that some of the
lower yield and incendiary bomb-
ings have been committed by these
relatively new "recruits," perhaps as
training exercises. The more lethal
activities, such as the murder of the
U.S. soldier and bombing at Rhein-
Main AFB, are thought to have been
carried out by hard-core terrorists.
Behind it all is. a larger, sinister
picture, some experts believe.
"What we're seeing is just part of the
forest;' said Yonah Alexander, a ter-
rorism analyst at Georgetown CSIS.
Euroterrorism "is a global assault
against the West and its interests." It
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