CIA STUDIES SUB VULNERABILITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580071-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2012
• Sequence Number: 71
• Publication Date: June 6, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580071-9
A?~TICLS 00
WASHINGTON POST
6 June 1985
Vulnerability
CIA Studies Sub Soviets Apparently Detected Strategic Missile Vessels
5
By Bob Woodward and Charles R. Babcock
Washington Post Staff Writers
The Central Intelligence Agency has
started a comprehensive, congressionally or-
dered, $10 million study to determine the
U.S. missile submarine fleet-the supposedly
invulnerable arm of the nation's strategic nu-
clear force-might be susceptible to detec-
tion by the Soviet Union, according to in-
formed sources.
The study is to focus on advanced tech-
niques, particularly involving radar and sat-
ellites, that the Soviets might be using to de-
tect U.S. submarines under the sea.
There is sharp disagreement in the U.S. in-
telligence community and the military about
the need for this special study. On occasion
the Soviets apparently have succeeded in lo-
cating a U.S. submarine patrolling underwa-
ter; according to several sources, but those
isolated successes should not be confused
with the ability to seriously threaten the en-
tire U.S. missile submarine force.
Reagan administration officials ? have re-
peatedly stated that the submarine force re-
mains invulnerable, and provides the back-
bone of America's nuclear deterrent.
One senior official said this week that the
CIA study will have to address the issue of
what the Soviets may have learned about
U.S. submarine capabilities from participants
in the alleged Walker family spy ring that is
being pursued by federal law enforcement au-
thorities. The Soviets long have made a pri-
ority of trying to uncover informa-
tion about U.S. submarine and an-
tisubmarine tactics, communica-
tions and capabilities. Several
sources have said that the alleged
Walker espionage ring, involving at
least four present and former Navy
men over a period of up to 20 years,
could have jeopardized a range of
secrets involving the ability of - the
U.S. submarine fleet to evade the
Soviets, maintain secure commu-
nications and locate Soviet subma-
rines.
Rep. Les Aspin (D-Wis.), chair- Congress and some staff members,
man of the House Armed Services with support from some Air Force
Committee, - confirmed . yesterday and CIA experts. House Armed
that the CIA study is under way. Services Committee senior staff
"I'm slightly uneasy that there member Anthony R. Battista was
might be a problem [of submarine one of the driving forces behind the
vulnerability]," Aspin said, adding study, sources said. Battista did not
that he has asked the Defense De- return a reporter's phone calls.
partment to report to-Congress this Strategic experts have noted that
year on submarine vulnerability. the U.S. submarine fleet of 36 nu-
"I don't know the answer, but it's clear-powered boats is perhaps the
one of the things ... that I want to most redundant system in the
? world. Five are Trident-class sub-
dig into, Aspin said. marines, each carrying 24 ballistic
Several sources said the Soviets missiles. Each missile carries eight
have at times succeeded in tracking independently twar-
U.S. submarines. Some said, for ex- heads-a independently of targetable 192 ge per submr-
a'mple, that Soviet Bear D recon- nine-and each nuclear warhead is
naissance planes based in Cuba ave eight times more powerful than'the
flown patrols over submerged U.S. the United States
missile submarines in the Atlantic. atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. ? ~ ?~ ?:
"They are finding our boomers The remaining 31 U.S. missile
(missile subsi," one source said. submarines are Poseidon-class
Other sources said, however, boats, each carrying 16 ballistic
grams, known only to a few, that ef-
fectively thwart any such Soviet ca-
pability. A knowledgeable, White
House official said recently that no
new Soviet detection program ex-
ists and no breakthrough is
missiles, most loaded with 10 inde-
pendently targetable warheads.
The addition of the new Tridents to
the fleet increases the Soviets' de-
tection problem significantly be-
cause the submarines have greater
range and more ocean. in which to
projected. hide.
Nonetheless, Congress secretly One source who is skeptical of
appropriated at least $10 million for the need for the study said, "Every
the study last year, instructing the now and then there comes a report,
CIA to report back to the president always sourced to the Air Force,
and the Congress in 18 months. that there is some vulnerability
Robert M. Gates, the CIA deputy .. I'm comfortable saying 'non-
director for intelligence, is in sense' . . . A lot of $10 million[s]
charge of the study that has 'been are wasted. The fact that Congress
under way since early this year. . said spend .some money does not
One informed intelligence official necessarily mean anything."
said it would be unwise to prejudge V Another intelligence official said,
.the outcome of the study. "We don't '"The Problem is not that great. But
know the answer," this source said, it's smart :to do a study ... there
adding that the question is so corn- are major national security sensi-
plicated that "our study won't settle tivities here."
The potential strategic signifi-
the issue." cance of a Soviet ability to locate
prop . The main e of the study U.S. submarines underwater would
are said to b be e a a few s few memmbers of depend in large measure on how
many American boats could be de-
tected at one time.
jDntnued
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580071-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580071-9
%2.
If, for example, about 20 subma-
rines were on patrol at a given time
and the Soviets could count on loa-
ting six, the United States would
retain huge and protected retalia-
tory power capable of inflicting dev-
astation on the Soviet Union. Pres-
ident Jimmy Carter once observed
that the missiles carried by one Po-
seidon submarine could "destroy ev-
ery large and medium-sized city in
the Soviet Union." 11
Soviet satellites and submarine- holding their breath to see what the
hunting planes may be using new - ! CIA finds."
techniques, including the reading of The potential political repercus-
minute changes in surface ocean sions also are large. "The popular
waves caused by the movement of view in Congress is that the MX
submerged submarines, rather than [missile] is not needed because our
the traditional method of detecting submarines have no vulnerability;'
id senior Republican senator.
sa
tening devices, sources said. Several Navy intelligence
One possibility, the sources said,
is that Soviets could use synthetic.
aperture radar (SAR) housed in the
Salyut 7 space station to bounce
radar signals off the ocean and then
process them into computer-gen-
erated images that might show up
as a track on the ocean surface
caused by the passage of a subma-
rine below. Other sources said the
natural turbulence of the ocean's
surface and the depths at which
submarines .can operate raise seri-
ous doubts about the potential ef-
fectivenesdof such a technique.
During the past several years
some of the nation's top scientists,
the so-called Jason group,' have
studied the potential SAR problem
in a series of classified studies for
the Pentagon. Dr. Edward Y. Harp-
er, technical director of the Navy's
missile submarine security pro-
gram, told the Senate Armed Ser-
vices Committee last year in secret
testimony later made public in cen-
sored form that, "Our assessments
are that synthetic aperture radars
cannot. detect, [deleted] subma-
rines."
The Navy's Poseidon and Trident
sources suggested that the whole
issue of the potential vulnerability
of the missile submarine fleet has
been raised by the Air Force as part
of its effort to win congressional ap-
proval of the MX missile. In fact,
one of the first reports on the de-
tection of U.S. submarines was filed
by the Air Force staff at the Nation-
al Security Agency (NSA) last year,
the sources said. And Air -Force
magazine published a report on the
Soviets' potential use of SAR to de-
tect submarines.
However, Defense Department
officials said, the MX would not
solve the problem of vulnerable
missile submarines because it is
scheduled fbr deployment in exist-
ing Minuteman missile silos, whose
precise location the Soviets can de-
termine from satellites in space,
and then target.
One source familiar with the new
CIA study said the Navy started
several years ago to conduct its
own computer modeling experi
ments. on. "nonacoustic" detection
techniques. Based on that work, the
intelligence community concluded-
submarines carry half of the na- not be using changes in ocean sur-
tion's nuclear missile warheads, face waves as a means to find U.S.
while the Soviets have three-quar- submarines, the source said.
ters --,of their nuclear warheads The CIA - reportedly dissented
based on land. from that. conclusion on the basis
For years, experts in and outside that the Navy studies had not been
government have concluded that thorough enough.
the U.S. submarine force and an- About the same time, the Air
tisubmarine warfare (ASW) pro- Force staff at NSA, the supersecret
gram were far ahead of the Sovi- agency that intercepts worldwide
ets', though the gap has narrowed communications traffic, filed a re-
in recent years. port that said the Soviets had the
The technology and tactics that
have kept U.S. submarines unde- capability to find some. submarines,
tected are among the country's perhaps by using radar to read the
most highly classified secrets. Com- ocean surface.. -
modore Roger F. Bacon, director of
the Navy's strategic nucleai war-
fare division, told the Senate Armed
Services Committee last year that
"the United States has avoided
technological surprise by the Sovi-
ets in over 2,200 strategic subma-
rine deterrent patrols."
One senior Reagan administra-
tion official said, "The strategic
ramifications [of the new study]
could not-be greater. Everyone is
The report was based on inter-
cepted communications of Soviet
antisubmarine, patrol aircraft,
sources said. The report was then
later withdrawn. One source said
that was because NSA later deter-
mined the communications were
part of a deception program by the
Soviets to make U.S. intelligence
believe they had located the subma-
rines.
Another source said that the re-
port was withdrawn because of in-
tense pressure from the Navy. The
source said that some of the skip-
pers , of, U.S. submarines have
voiced concern about the situation.
Over the last few years there
also have been some reports from
the Navy's own ocean surveillance
analysts that Soviet ASW planes
seemed to be finding U.S. missile
submarines, sources said.
The combination of these reports
led a few members of the House
and Senate to push for funding of
the new study, they added.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580071-9