TERRORIST WINNING WAR, SAY EXPERTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580058-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2012
• Sequence Number: 58
• Publication Date: June 23, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

'Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580058-4
Terrorists
winning?
war, say
experts
By Jack Lessenberry
News Staff Writer
WASHINGTON ? One expert
calls this the Age of Terrorism -- and
last week's news stories support his
claim.
Throughout the week, the world
hung on the developments in the
Beirut hostage crisis, where 40 Amer-
ican tourists and airline crew mem-
bers remained the captives of the
Shiite Muslim fanatics who hijacked
their plane nine days ago.
Other terrorist incidents erupted
with numbing frequency: Bullifs
killed four off-duty U.S. Marines and
two American civilians in El Salva-
dor. A bomb killed three and devas-
tated the airport-departure terminal
in Frankfurt, West Germany. Explo-
sions rocked the royal palace in Kat-
mandu, Nepal; downtown Bogota,
Colombia; suburban Jerusalem; and
Tripoli, Lebanon.
POLITICIANS AND experts
are divided over what to do, but there
is agreement that terrorism is war ?
and that, so far, the terrorists are
winning.
"It is a new
kind of war,"
said L. Bruce
Laingen, "and
our side is hav-
ing trouble get-
ting organized
for it." Now
vice-president
of the National
Defense Univer-
sity, Laingen
was charge d'affaires in the U.S.
Embassy in Iran in 1979. For 444
days, he remained America's top-
ranking hostage.
"This is the central strategic chal-
lenge to the United States," agreed
Yonah Alexander, director of the
State University of New York's Insti-
tute for the Study of International
Teggigism..
L. Bruce Laingen
DETROIT NEWS (P I )
23 June 1985
"The next war is not going to be fought on
the battlefield between the United States
and the Soviet Union ? this is it," he said.
?
THOUGH TERRORISTS come in
varieties ranging from Muslim religious fun-
damentalists to the atheist Marxists of the
Italian Red Brigade, they share a ruthless
willingness to use violence against innocent
people.
Increasingly, they are aided by govern-
ments who think they can use a terrorist
faction to further their own aims.
As a result, Alexander labeled this a new
Age of Terrorism ? and predicted that the
first incidence of nuclear terrorism may not
be faraway.
Robert Oakley, director of the State
Department's Office for Anti-Terrorism and
Emergency Planning, prophetically predict-
ed just days before the hijacking of TWA
Flight 847 that "a broader spectrum of
citizens will be the victims of terrorist"
attacks" as terrorists move on from tradi-
tional targets like diplomats and business-
men. He added that attacks are likely to
become more violent and further grotesque
elements are liable to emerge. Three years
ago, he noted, car bombs were virtually
unknown.
OAKLEY POINTED out that terrorist
incidents within the United States have
been decreasing. He credited tighter border
controls, work by the FBI and aversion by
the American people to foreign-inspired
violence. For the United States, he pre-
dicted, the problem will continue to be
terrorism abroad against its citizens, not
actions at home.
But Alexander is much less certain. "The
future looks very gloomy," he said in his
Wishington office. The spread of technology
and the sophistication of terrorist groups
may mean that nuclear blackmail, conduct-
ed by a radical group gaining a bomb or
seizing a reactor, may occur soon.
"Now, they are holding an airliner hos-
tage," he said. "Tomorrow, they may hold a
city hostage."
The key to restraining terrorism Alexan-
der said, is finding a way to stop state-sup-
ported terrorism.
."Terrorism cannot flourish in a vacuum,"
he said. "Granted. you would have some
Shiite terrorism, for example, in any case.
But you would not have modern terrorism in
its present form," without outside support.
largely, from the Iran and the Soviet Union
and its surrogates.
EIGHTY PERCENT of terrorist
movements profess some form of Marxist
ideology, he said, largely to obtain Soviet
weapons and aid.
There are differences over what to do and
I H I
even what can be done about the problem.
Emotionally, the experts said, the pressures
la it back hard at somebody ? anybody ?
are intense. Some also said it is important
psychologically to strike.
"The ides that you can't use force against
fanatics," Alexander said, "especially reli-
gious fanatics, is wrong. Absolutely wrong.
Communities and nation-states are there to
survive, even Iran. International life is based
on one single element ? reciprocity."
Robert Kupperman, a counterterrorism
authority with Georgetown University's
Center for Strategic Studies, is not so sure.
"I cannot say we ought not to retaliate."
he said, "but we have to be very careful."
Hitting the wrong target may produce new
terrorists, he cautioned.
KUPPERMAN AGREED that this is
war, but he is scornful of the military
establishment's lack of imagination and
flexibility in preparing for it.
"With a very few exceptions," he said,
"every general I've ever met only wanted to
refight World War II ? the last one we won
? just with better technology." Once, he
added, a four-star general said to him,
munding his fist in frustration, "Why won't
they (terrorists) just come out and fight like
men?"
Traditional honor may be with the gener-
al, but common sense backs the terrorist,
observed Middle East expert Daniel Pipes.
"Tactically," he said, "it makes perfect
sense for them to use terror ? how else can a
small power fight against a great power?" So
far, he said, the terrorists have done an
excellent job with the means at their dispos-
al, while civilization has been slow to re-
spond to the challenge.
NOT, OF course, that there are not
elaborate, costly support systems behind
terrorist operations like the one in Beirut,
operations that require assistance from es-
tablished nations, Kupperman and Alexan-
der both said.
"Modern terrorism requires considerable
sophistication," Kupperman said. "They
have to have safe houses, in this case they,
had to have a long-range plan. 'l'he key
question here is, was there Syrian and
Iranian involvement? I don't think we
know."
He said that if and when the government
does know who is behind any terrorist
incident, we better have a firm plan in mind
before uttering threats. Worst of all, Kup-
perman and other students of terrorism
agreed, are cases where the civilized world
indulges in breast-beating, only to do noth-
ing.
SUCH WAS the case when the Marine
headquarters in Beirut was bombed in Octo-
ber 1983. President Reagan vowed revenge.
,1=11.TISD
npriacsified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580058-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580058-4
but nothing was done, and Washington
backed out of a planned joint-reprisal raid
with France.
"What do we do if it is Iran?" behind the
hostage crisis, Kupperman asked impatient-
ly. For strategic reasons, Washington might
find itself unable to strike.
If so, he noted that .United States ir
once again put in the position of appearing
to be a paper tiger."
Western nations never should have an
announced policy spelling out exactly what
they will do in the event of a terrorist
incident, Kupperman said. In many cases.
the most prudent course of action may be
covert.
. "Since we aren't in the assassination
business." he said, "we have to use proxies,
and ours ain't quite as good as some." He
noted the March 8 incident where Lebanese
forces friendly to Western interests
launched a car bomb with disastrous results.
THE BOMB was meant for Sheik
Mohamed Hussein Fadlallah, a Shiite lead-
er. It missed him, and killed 80 other people.
TheSk, which allegedly had been planning
to train Arabs for such operations, has
denied charges that it assisted in the inci-
dent.
Governments have to be convinced that
terrorism is not a policy they will be permit-
ted to use, the experts said.
"Security is obviously essential," Alexan-
der said, "and starts as a state of mind. What
kind of security are we willing to buy -- at
what price?
"Are we willing to have more wiretap-
ping? Preemptive strikes against terrorist
bases? Will they be willing to stop drawing
lines," behind which aggressors can function
with impunity?
WHETHER OR not those are the right
answers. Alexander emphasized that some-
thing has to be done.
"It is unbelievable," he said, "all the
missiles Mr. Reagan has added, wild the
United States has to put up concrete barriers
around the White House ? psychological
walls of Jericho."
Though they are critical of efforts to curb
terrorism, few experts criticized Mr.
Reagan's handling of the crisis. The concern
now. Alexander said, has to be for the
attempted safe return of the hostages.
"The United States has to continue to
negotiate directly and through intermediar-
ies," Alexander said.
YET HE is critical of the administra-
tion's "lack of a clear coherent policy as to
what it is willing to do."
Understandably, the government thinks
its critics are being too harsh.
"The problem is with the nature of
terrorism, not with the administration."
Oakley said. Three weeks ago, he told the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee that
despite government efforts, "we will not
always succeed. Given the nature of the
problem, you will be far more aware of our
failures than our successes."
YET OAKLEY admitted that the situ-
ation may get worse before it gets better.
Capitalism, in the form of a flourishing
world-arms market, has seen to it that cheap
and efficient weapons are available to poten-
tial terrorists. The strong dollar means more
Americans than ever are traveling, especially
by air, and hence are subject to the threat.
"The media ? mass communications ?
also ensure instantaneous publicity for ter-
rorist acts," Oakley said. Government offi-
cials last week were livid, blaming the media,
particularly television, for creating a circus
atmosphere and providing the terrorists
with a worldwide forum to present their
demands.
"I'm hesitant to say this," former-hostage
Laingen said Thursday, "but I wish we could
find some way of restraining this that would
be consistent with our nature as a free
society and the public's Tight to know."
Communist and other police states have
fewer terrorist episodes, he said, partly
because government control of media denies
terrorists access to an automatic soapbox.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/15: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807580058-4