ZIA SAYS MOSCOW IS READY TO TALK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000807340005-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 11, 2012
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 23, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP90-0
WASHINGTON POST
23 March 1986
Zia Says Moscow Is Ready to Talk
Pakistan's Leader Wants Negotiations Over Afghanistan, Not More Covert Aid
By Lally Weymouth
I SLAMABAD- President Mohammed
Zia ul-Haq of Pakistan says that the So-
viet Union is seriously interested in ex-
ploring a political settlement to the six-
year-old war in Afghanistan. "We are in
touch with them directly and indirectly, and
from all counts, the signals we are receiving
are that the Soviet Union wishes to with-
draw," Zia said in an interview at his palace
here last week.
The Pakistani leader explained Moscow's
Afghanistan problem this way: "Inside Af-
ghanistan, if you look at it from the Russian
point of view, things are not going so well.
I'm sure they can't afford to suffer as many
casualties as they are suffering today. So,
from that point of view, they also appear to
be keen to resolve the issue of Afghanistan.
I'm talking from my own personal knowl-
edge, and from the exchange of views di-
rectly and indirectly that we have been re-
ceiving and conveying to Soviet authorities
themselves." -
President Zia's hopeful view of Soviet
intentions marks a change in his previous
hard-line position. hough his tone was cau-
Lally Weymouth writes regularly about
foreign affairs for The Los Angeles Times
Syndicate.
mg of withdrawal, are digging in for a 1ong the political game with considerable skill,
war. And they predict that rather than a nynimizing the East-West asoects o the
negotiated settlement, the most likely pros-
ghan struggle, while enabling the resis-
tance to receive covert aid. The strrongest
stalemate. One Pentagon analyst describes evidence of his success is the most recent
talk of Soviet withdrawal as "a lot of hog- United Nations vote on Afghanistan, where
wash. They intend to stay." 122 out of 159 members voted to condemn
Even some Pakistanis are skeptical of the Soviet invasion. He summed up the del-
Zia's assessment. "Let's be very frank. The "
Russians didn't come in to withdraw," said icate Pakistani dilemma by saying, The
question is at what temperature does the
Pakistan's assertive new prime minister, kettle boil? If it's too high, the lid will fly
Mohammed Khan Junejo, in an interview. off."
here last week. He added: "I agree with the
people who say the Soviets will not with- Zia outlined what kind of political solution
? would be acceptable to Pakistan. "The So-
draw, viet Union must withdraw," he said. "The
Zia views the Afghanistan conflict in stra- refugees must return and it would be left to
tegic terms. He reached for a well-worn the people of Afghanistan to decide what
atlas to explain why he believes the Soviets kind of a government they want. We'grant
originally invaded Afghanistan. Pointing to the Soviet Union that a superpower cannot
o
n
er
rather than an escalation of the covert pp
into Afghanistan. Thus far, said Zia, Soviet
war-as some U.S. officials are urging. incursions into Pakistan have been minor.
Many U.S. officials question Zia 's opti- But if further provoked, the Soviets could
mistic account of the Soviet peace feelers. cause more trouble.
They argue that the Soviets, far from think- To date, Pakistan's pre has played
Pakistan, he said: "If they move here over
the bodies of Pakistanis, they are at the
mouth of the Gulf, and whoever controls the
Straits of Hormuz controls the Gulf. In one
move they have threatened to secure the
Straits of Hormuz, encircle Iran and tell the
Chinese, 'We are on your flank.' So strate-
gically speaking, this is ideal."
Y et Zia questioned the view held by
some American officials that the
U.S. should increase its aid to the
Afghan resistance fighters, the mujahed-
dine, to force the Soviets to accept a polit-
ical settlement.
"To expect that the greater the insurgen-
cy, the less the time the Soviets will spend
in Afghanistan is wrong," he said. "You've
got to find a political solution to the prob-
lem. The insurgency is a tactic. It will help
find a political solution, but it will not bring
about a solution. So, if anybody's thinking
that the greater the heat of the insurgency,
the easier the solution, he is wrong. The
freedom fighters must continue their effort
at the present level."
Zia didn't hide his concern that an esca-
lation of Western aid to the resistance could
bring attendant dangers for Pakistan. Pak-
istan now is home for more than 3 million
tious during the interview, he seem --Afghan refugees. Moreover, Pakistan pro-
signaling Washington that he thinks it's vides a base for the resistance fighters-
time for negotiations over Afghanistan, and a route for su lies and arms t
t
e
tolerate a hostile neighbor." But Zia noted
ironically that Afghanistan was pro-Soviet
and hostile to Pakistan long before Soviet
troops marched in.
0965R000807340005-8
Pakistanis are especially fearful of a two-
front war: Afghanistan, a battleground for
the last six years, is on one border, and In-
dia, Pakistan's traditional enemy, is on the
other.
The India problem has eased slightly. Zia
regards Rajiv Gandhi as a major improve-
ment over his late mother, Indira. "We have
found a great difference," he said. "We have
already made good progress, and I hope it
continues." But he cautioned that Rajiv isn't
likely to alter India's close relations with
the Soviet Union. "It's not possible," he
said, "If you analyze the Indian position, you
will see that their entire military is depen-
dent on the resources of the Soviet Union
. Even if the leadership desires to
change, it's impossible."
Zia continues to regard the United States
as an ally, but he is pragmatic. "One must
not expect too much, even from one's wife,"
he said. "Then you're not disappointed. If
Pakistan starts expecting that the U.S. will
bring American troops and fight both
against India and the Russians, the Pakis-
tanis are expecting too much. If the Pakis-
tanis are expecting that the U.S. will open
the gates of Fort Knox and throw all the
gold for Pakistan, it's also expecting too
much. We should expect from the U.S. only
what we think is necessary and essential
and then we will not be disappointed."
Zia is now preoccupied with events in his
own country where, after nine years, mar-
tial law has been lifted and democracy is
coming in stages. First, there has been an
election of a national assembly, which has
begun to function like a parliament. Zia has
also appointed the new prime minister,
Junejo, spreading executive power slightly
while keeping for himself the posts of pres-
ident and army chief of staff.
nalysts here and in Washington de-
bate whether Zia can control the pro-
cess of democratization he has
begun. Despite widespread speculation that
his recent power-sharing moves came un-
der pressure from the U.S. Congress, Zia
asserts that he came up with the plan him-
self. Others are now saying that Zia initially
may have thought he could limit the powers
of the assembly. Once the process was
launched, they say, Zia found he couldn't
stop it short of reimposing martial law-a
trump card he still holds.
Today, much day-to-day government
business has already shifted to the new
prime minister. The fact that Junejo, rather
than Zia, attended Swedish Prime Minister
Olof Palme's funeral was read here as a sign
that he is accumulating more and more
power. There are rumors that Zia will step
down as army chief of staff by the end of the
year, and become a civilian president. He
insisted, however, that lyg,isn't yet ready to
6W
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807340005-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807340005-8
Junejo offers a blunt explanation of the
division of power between him and Zia.
"Power has shifted," he said firmly last
week. "Power lies with the chief executive
of the country"-meaning Junejo. Asked
how it was decided that he, rather than Zia,
should go to the Palme funeral, Junejo ex-
plained: "I told him, 'I'm going.'"
Some American analysts worry that Pak-
istan may be heading toward a period of
internal instability. Some skeptics even ar-
gue that Pakistan isn't a real country but-
somewhat like Lebanon-a collection of
sects that is united only by its army.
Without the army running things, these
skeptics say, the Pashtoon, the people that
dominate the Northwest Frontier Province,
might be recruited into a separatist move-
ment fueled by the Soviets. The same sep-
aratist feelings might also arouse the
Baluch and the Sindis, two sects that have
felt underrepresented in a nation dominated
by the Punjabi.
But Pakistanis optimistic about the dem-
ocratic process, such as Fakhar Imam, the
speaker of the assembly, say that democ-
racy is the only hope for Pakistan-the only
way to defuse the battle that could erupt for
the hearts and minds of the Pashtoon.
SOVIET
UNION
Many questions remain for Pakistan dur-
ing its current, bumpy transition to democ-
racy. Power sharing may already have un-
dercut Zia's tough policy toward the Af-
ghanistan war, for example, despite Zia's
claims to the contrary. When power lay
solely in Zia's hands, it was easier, to run a
covert war. Now there is a prime minister
who must respond to questions, and who
must take into account the resentment felt
by many Pakistanis at the presence of 3
million Afghan refugees, draining resources
from an already impoverished nation.
T hat's why Zia is scared of what U.S.
officials believe is the likeliest out-
come in Afghanistan-a bloody stale-
mate. His options are limited. He fears that
escalating the covert war could bring Soviet
bombers over the Pakistani city of Pesha-
war. He also knows that halting aid to the
mujaheddine would leave the Red Army on
his border, where it could threaten to dis-
member Pakistan. He talks hopefully of ne-
gotiations, but he's an experienced enough
strategist to know that the Soviets aren't
likely to withdraw voluntarily except under
the most favorable terms.
And that's why Zia speaks of Afghanistan
as everyone's problem. "I don't call this a
regional problem, I call this a global prob-
lem," he said. "Because if you accept in Af-
ghanistan that might is right, that a super-
power can walk in and subjugate a country,
then we are leaving very little for posterity
and the free world will have nothing to of-
fer."
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP90-00965R000807340005-8