NICARAGUA FEELS PRESSURE TO SIGN PACT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870021-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 8, 2012
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: May 18, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870021-8
WASHINGTON POS't
18 May 1986
to Sign Pact
a Feels Pressure
1`~icar
d P Tt i Fctor
US. Right- Wing Alarm Over Contaoraeacereaysa
By Joanne 0M~S_
rsMe on a rater
An unexpected combination of
events is putting heavy pressure on
the Sandinista government of Nic-
aragua to sign a Central American
regional peace treaty early next
month, a move that would have
do astic effects on U.S. policy in the
area.
Final negotiations on the Con-
tadora pact this weekend and
oe:xt-and related talks among Ni-
caraguan rebel leaders in Miami-
ar-e at what all sides agree is a crisis
p Dint. Positions drawn and redrawn
over three years of negotiations
appear suddenly to be within shout-
In iwg distance of each other, and what
N remains necessary is a kind of leap
of faith that real agreement can be
reached by the target date, June 6.
That next move appears to be
Nicaragua's.
In one of several ironies, U.S.
caonservatives for whom the nego-
tiations are anathema have helped
to make the pact credible in Nica-
:ragua's eyes. They are suddenly
worrying out loud that the treaty on
the table would leave the Sandinis-
tas in power and halt U.S. support
tor the contras-counterrevolu-
tionary guerrillas fighting Nicara-
gua's leftist government.
Cable traffic to Managua from
Nicaragua's embassy here has been
bteavy with recent Evans and Novak
columns and cartoons and editorials
from The Washington Times de-
nouncing the situation, according to
Nicaraguan diplomats here.
1 "We had our doubts at first, but
we're beginning to believe they re-
ally are worried," said one official.
"That's very interesting."
Eight Republicans wrote to Pres-
ident Reagan last week expressing
.alarm over special negotiator Philip
C. Habib's promise that U.S. aid to
the contras would cease if Ni-
caraguan President Daniel Ortega
rsigns and observes the treaty bro-
kered by the Contadora countries-
Mexico, Panama, Colombia and Ven-
ezuela.
The Republicans in their letter
warned that Nicaragua might sign
-without any intention of adhering to
treaty terms, and several have
asked to meet with Reagan to get
his reassurance of continued sup-
port for the contras.
State Department officials have
expressed some bafflement over
such concerns. They said that if
official statements dating back to
the start of Contadora in 1983 are
read closely, they consistently en-
dorse a treaty that is verifiable,
comprehensive and binding on all
parties simultaneously.
"We wouldn't buy a pig in a
poke," White House spokesman
Larry Speakes said last week.
If those three elements are
present, he said, the contras would
no longer be fighting but would be
involved in Nicaragua's political
process.
In a further irony, pressure on
Nicaragua to bargain coincides with
the nadir of the contras' fortunes,
rather than resulting from strong
contra military pressure as the ad-
ministration had predicted.
The rebels' leadership is divided,
to the point that Habib spent much
of last week in Miami meetings try-
ing to push the three factions into a
more cooperative, civilian-run or-
ganization. Their military progress
has been zero since their financial
aid has run out. The World Court is
expected in about two weeks to de-
nounce U.S. aid to them as illegal.
Meanwhile, three congressional
committees are probing charges that
the contras are involved in corrup-
tion and drug trafficking. At a May 7
meeting, representatives o the en-
tral Intelligence Agency, the depart-
ments of Justice, State and reas-
ury, the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, House Foreign Affairs
Committee and House and twenate
intelligence committees reviewed
the allegations and concluded that
there is no evidence, according to
people who were present.
Tut the probes continue. In an
interview, Robert Duemling, direc-
tor of the Nicaraguan Humanitarian
Aid Office, said losses from the $27
million aid program through corrup-
tion have been "tiddlywinks." As an
example, he said the State Depart-
ment inspector general's office is
probing contra complaints that
when they donned boots from one
shipment of 1,200 pairs, the soles
fell off.
"Out of 70,000 pairs of boots,
that's not too bad," Duemling said.
He denied reports that his office
had paid for 20,000 uniforms that
were never received from a Hon-
duran market, saying 20,000 were
ordered, 10,000 had been paid for
and 15,000 had been received.
Still, the Senate Foreign Rela-
tions Committee has scheduled
hearings on the contras for the first
week in June, which will renew pub-
lic attention to the issue of whether
the contras deserve more U.S. aid
just before the Cont4dora deadline.
Perhaps the strongest pressure
on Nicaragua comes from Reagan's
continued drive for $100 million in
new humanitarian and military help
for the contras. He refused a Feb-
ruary appeal from eight Latin na-
tions to delay the request until June
to allow negotiations to proceed,
but congressional reluctance to ap-
orove the aid has delayed it at least
until June 9, three days after the
Contadora deadline.
There is general agreement that
the votes are there for renewed
military aid of some kind. The de-
bate last month was over the size
and conditions of the assistance, not
over providing it, and members vied
to denounce the Sandinistas as in-
transigent and repressive even
while criticizing the aid proposal.
The White House has promised
to pursue the aid-even if a pact is
signed-until convinced the terms
are being observed.
Bosco Matamoros, Washington
spokesman for the largest rebel
group, the Nicaraguan Democratic
Force, said the aid must continue no
matter what happens with Con-
tadora.
We are a key factor to the so-
lution in Nicaragua. The aid is in-
timately linked to enforcing the
conditions ... there has to be lev-
erage by us to guarantee the Con-
tadora pact," he said.
W"
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870021-8
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870021-8
But a signed agreement would
change the congressional percep-
tion of the Sandinistas from intran-
sigent to peace-seeking. That could
kill the aid request.
The Nicaraguans can count the
votes both ways," a liberal Demo-
cratic House aide said. "We're tell-
ina them this is their last real shot."
The final negotiations are fo-
cused on spelling out the details of
verification, comprehensiveness
and simultaneity.
^ U.S. allies are expected to call
for a system of verifying compliance
that would involve about 1,300 per-
manent monitors and cost $9.2 mil-
lion to set up and $40 million a year
to maintain in the five Central
American countries.
Nicaraguan officials have not ob-
jected to a tough watchdog system,
which in theory would also protect
them from renewed rebel activity.
But Washington has refused to sign
a protocol promising to abide by the
treaty terms, which would in theory
leave it free to decide for itself
whether a violation had occurred.
One Latin diplomat said the cost
of a good system would be negligi-
ble. "The United States is already
spending $1.5 billion a year in Cen-
tral America. If they could have
peace for $40 million a year, it
would be a bargain," he said.
?^ To U.S. officials, the term "com-
prehensive" means that the treaty
must require Nicaragua to open up
its political system not only to do-
mestic critics but to the contras as
well, plus reinstating freedom of the
press, religion and so on. The trea-
ty terms do this, but the conse-
quences for failure to comply have
yet to be negotiated.
To Nicaragua, "comprehensive"
means military disarmament re-
quirements that will end U.S. ma-
neuvers in neighboring Honduras
and allow Nicaragua to retain
enough weapons to feel secure
against the possibility of a U.S. at-
tack. Treaty terms limit U.S. ma-
neuvers but do not ban them, and
Nicaragua has not defined what it
means by a "cessation of U.S. ag-
gression" that it insists must be ver-
ified.
Negotiators say they see room
for an arms agreement in Ortega's
declarations that "rifles in the hands
of the people are not negotiable"
while "offensive weapons" are. That
could allow a reduction in the San'-
dinista army but retention of the
civilian militia.
^ The question of simultaneous
implementation requires delicate
decisions. The treaty requires de-
parture of foreign advisers and dis-
mantling of foreign military bases;
but allows six months for some
changes to be made. U.S. aid to the
contras may cease, but they already
have said they will continue fighting
on their own. Nicaragua has dis-
avowed the presence on its soil of.
guerrillas from El Salvador and oth-
er nations; their departure could
not be confirmed overnight.
"The key to the process is imple-
mentation," Matamoros said. "Noth-
ing will be any good without that."
at
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870021-8