'IRAN-IRAQ WAR IS REPORTED TO INTENSIFY AFTER A LULL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000402700006-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 26, 2012
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: July 4, 1984
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/26: CIA-RDP9O-00965ROO0402700006-6
NEW YORK TIMES
ARTICLE APPEAR
ON PAGE -
4 July 1984
'Iran-Iraq War Is Reported to Intensify After a Lull
By RICHARD HALLORAN
Special iD The New Tat Times
WASHINGTON, July 3 - United
States intelligence analysts said today
that military action in the Iran-Iraq
war had intensified after a lull of about
a month, and they speculated that Iran
might be on the verge of a long-ex-
pected offensive.
The analysts said the opposing sides
had engaged in more and larger skir-
mishes on the Basra front since the
holy month of Ramadan had ended.
More air action has also been report-
ed, the analysts said, not only Iraqi at-
tacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf
but also sorties by both sides. But the
analysts said they had no confirmation
of reports that Iraq had sunk oil tank-
ers carrying oil from Iran.
Iran has brought up more regular
troops to the front, the analysts said,
and has moved more ammunition and
supplies into offensive positions. In re-
sponse, they said, Iraq has moved
more troops into battle positions.
The analysts put Iranian troops on or
near the frontline at about 250,000 com-
pared with 200,000 a month ago. There
were then also an equal number of
revolutionary guards, the analysts
said, but they lave been reorganized,
making a new estimate difficult.
They said many Iranian officers had
been replaced after field commanders
were recalled to Teheran. The analysts
doubted that a purge' had taken place,
but said fresh commanders had been
dispatched to the front.
According to dispatches from Tehe-
ran today, Iranian leaders have denied
that the offensive had been delayed be-
cause'of internal bickering.
?. Recent repeated reports of discord
among Iranian leaders on the issue of
the war are nothing but illusions," the
Government press agency said.
On the ground, the wetlands in the
Basra area have dried out and made it
easier for military vehicles and foot
soldiers to move. The analysts sug-
gested that this would favor Iran rather
than Iraq, which is on the defensive.
About a month ago, the analysts,
after having seen several false starts,
said the offensive threatened by Iran
might have been canceled. Both Iran
and Iraq seemed then to be putting out
peace feelers, although those signs
were ambiguous.
Today he analysts said the hints of
peace seemed to have faded. They
speculated that an offensive might
begin around July 5 or 6, at the time of
another Islamic holy day. But they
noted the number of times before that
the offensive had been expected.
The objective for the Iranians, given
the direction of troop and supply move-
ments from Dizful, was the Iraqi defen-
sive position north of Basra, the ana-
lysts said. But whether Iran will seek to
capture Basra or to encircle it is un-
clear, they 'said.
Reagan Administration officials
have become concer,ied that Iranian
forces after taking Basra or bypassing
the city, may turn south and head to-
ward Kuwait. It is only 30 miles from
Basra to the Kuwaiti border.
The officials said a team from the
Central Command, the former Rapid
Deployment Force, has surveyed
Kuwaiti mile ry requirements. The re-
sults of the tnp are reported still under
study, but the Administration recently
approved an $82 million package to im-
prove Kuwait's air defenses.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/26: CIA-RDP9O-00965ROO0402700006-6