CIA DOWNGRADES ESTIMATE OF SOVIET SS-19......SAYING MISSILE TOO INACCURATE FOR FIRST STRIKE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302430034-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 21, 2012
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: July 20, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

OT AD-reclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/21 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000302430034-6
42,4141- l'firlfeSURW
CIA Downgrades Estimat auviet
19.
... Saying Missile Too Inaccurate for First Strike
By Mkhael R. Gordon
Key U.S. intelligence officials have
revised their estimate of the capabili-
ties of the Soviet Union's SS-I9 mis-
sile and no longer believe the intercon-
tinental ballistic missile has the
accuracy to threaten U.S. missile silos
in a first strike, government officials
said.
The new assessment is reflected in
the latest National Intelligence Esti-
mate (NIE) prepared by the National
Intelligence Council, a panel if intelli-
gence experts chaired by a deputy
director of the Central Intelligence
; Agency. But there is not unanimity on
the SS-19's capabilities, according to
a Pentagon official.
"The CIA has revised its estimate
of the SS-I9'5 accuracy; the DIA has
not," the official said, referring to the
Pentagon's Defense Intelligence
Agency (D(A). While the CIA's view
is reflected in the main text of the
NIE, a footnote states the DIA's dis-
senting view, the official added.
The SS-I9 figured prominently in
public debate during the Carter Ad-
ministration. In 1977, intelligence pro-
jections showed the missile's accu-
racy?as well as that of the SS-18----
was improving at a quicker rate than
earlier forecast. "Analysis of intelli-
gence data on new versions of the SS-
18 and SS-I9 missiles indicates that
by the early 1980s, a substantial
threat to our Minuteman will exist,"
said the Defense Department's fiscal
1980 report to Congress.
The view that the SS-19 was a "silo
killer" encouraged the notion that the
"window of vulnerability"?the time
when U.S. land-based missiles would
be vulnerable to Soviet attack?had
opened earlier than expected.
In addition, those assessments of
the SS-l9 influenced the U.S. negoti-
ating approach in the Strategic Arms
Limitation Talks (SALT). In light of
intelligence estimates, the Carter Ad-
ministration in 1977 was amenable to
a Soviet suggestion that the treaty set
an over-all limit on multiple-warhead
land-based missiles, including the SS-
19. Previously, the Carter Administra-
tion had pushed to limit the multiple-
warhead SS-I8, the largest of the
Soviet land-based missiles, according
to Walter B. Slocombe, a Carter Ad-
ministration Defense official.
At present, the Soviets have 308
SS-l8 missiles, each of which can
carry up to 10 warheads under the
terms of the SALT II treaty, for a
total of 3,080 warheads. There are 360
SS-19 missiles, each carrying 6 war-
heads, for a total of 2,160 warheads.
The view that the SS-I9 is a silo
killer is still expressed in Pentagon
publications. The Joint Chiefs of Staff
fiscal 1986 military posture assess-
ment states that "today, the most ac-
curate versions of the SS-l8 and SS-
19 missiles are capable of destroying
most time-urgent and hardened tar-
gets in an initial attack on the United
States."
The new CIA reassessment, how-
ever, casts doubt on this view. "It is no
longer a silo killer," said a State De-
partment official familiar with the re-
assessment.
A Pentagon official said that "what
the CIA basically says is that given
the large increase in CEP it now asso-
ciates with the the SS-I9, the individ-
ual probability of kill is low."- "CEP"
is a technical measure of missile accu-
racy that stands for "circle error prob-
able" and refers to the radius of a
circle within which 50 per cent of a
missile's warheads can be expected to
fall. The London-based International
Institute for Strategic Studies esti-
mates that the CEP of the latest
models of the SS-18 and the SS-19 is
300 meters.
In its reassessment, the CIA has
increased its estimate of the SS-I9's
CEP by "better than a third" and now
puts it in the range of 400 meters, the
official said. That would mean that
the SS-I9 would not provide a high-
confidence capability against a U.S.
missile silo even if two SS-l9 war-
heads from two separate missiles were
aimed at the same U.S. missile silo.
"Even two gives you low confidence
of killing a silo," the Pentagon official
said. "You could use three or four and
. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/21 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000302430034-6