CIA DIRECTOR SEES SANDINISTA OUSTER AS POSSIBLE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000302230002-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 19, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/09/27: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302230002-3
ASSOCIATED PRESS
(lt 19 September 1986
CIA Director Sees Sandinista Ouster as Possible
By GEORGE GEDDA, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON
BODY:
CIA Director William Casey says the Nicaraguan government, despite having
$500 million worth of sophisticated Soviet weaponry, could face collapse as a
result of rebel pressure and mounting domestic discontent.
In a speech Thursday marked by optimism about Central America's future, Casey
said there is nothing inevitable about the final consolidation of communist rule
in Nicaragua. ?
"Just as there is a classic formula for communist subversion and takeover,
there is also a proven method of overthrowing repressive government that can be
applied successfully in Nicaragua," he said.
With HOU5E and Senate approval of $100 million in U.'S. assistance, Casey said
the Nicaraguan rebels will be able to "turn up the hea." on the Sandinista
government and expand their ranks as well.
He said the Contra rebels need not match the Sandinistas weapon-for-weapon in
order to achieve their objectives,
"History shows that a combination of nagging insurgent military pressure and
progressive withdrawal of domestic and international support is what brings down
or alters an unpopular government,"Casey said.
He spoke to the University Club, a private group.
Casey said the Sandinistas have been increasingly on the defensive because
rural peasants have been unhappy with the government's collectivization and
resettlement programs and its mandatory draft and "anti-church policies. '"The
heavy financial burden of the Sandinistas'counterinsurgency effort combined with
poor economic management also is creating discontent within the country," he
said.
The stated administration policy is to encourage the Sandinistas to negotiate
with their opponents by helping the Contras bring military pressure on the
kilt mid
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2?.
government.
Outright defeat of the Sandinistas is not part of the publicly announced
policy, but Casey's speech reflects an increasing willingness among
administration officials to discuss that possibility.
But Casey said that with "Cuban helicopter pilots and combat direction and a
half-billion dollars of sophisticated Soviet weaponry," the Sandinistas are
going all out to defeat the Contras before U.S. assistance can reach it.
"In the meantime, the Sandinistas are sticking to their blueprint of building
a state security apparatus, the strongest armed forces in Central America and in
developing a center for exporting subversion and terrorism in the region," he
said.
Libya has been providing Nicaragua with about $100 million annually, Casey
said, adding that Nicaragua has been training young men for "violence and
subversion, sending them as far down into South America as Chile."Libya is
training Latin Americans for subversion in Central America, Venezuela and
Ecuador, he said. U.S. weapons seized by Vietnam a decade ago, he said, have
been showing up in such countries as Honduras, El Salvador, Jamaica and Colombia
"with Cuba, we believe, doing the delivery."Casey also mentioned the "enormous
cache" of such weapons which recently turned up in Chile, earmarked for leftist
rebels.
"U.S. policy has to deal with the reality of a Soviet and Soviet-surrogate
network of Third World subversion," he said. "It cannot 1.7ie wished away."
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/09/27: CIA-RDP90-00965R000302230002-3