U.S.-IRANIAN DEAL COULD TILT BALANCE IN PERSIAN GULF WAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000201630002-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 9, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000201630002-1
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WASHINGTON POST
9 November 1986
U.S.-Iranian Deal Could Tilt
Balance in Persian Gulf War
Talks Come at Critical Point in Stalemate
T
By Michael Dobbs
Washington Pat Foreign Ser, ce
BAGHDAD, Iraq-Recent dip-
lomatic overtures by the United
States toward Tehran have coin-
cided with a crucial phase in the
grueling six-year-old Persian Gulf
war between Iran and Iraq, in the
view of analysts here.
As White House envoys report-
edly shuttled between Washington
and Tehran, the pace of the world's
bloodiest and most expensive on-
going war has been speeding up.
Strapped for men, money and war
materiel; both sides have been
forced to make some hard decisions
that could affect the outcome of the
conflict.
Important developments over the
past few months have included the
capture by Iran of a significant
chunk of Iraqi territory, more ag-
gressive tactics by the Iraqi Air
Force, and an unprecedented de-
gree of military mobilization. All
this has taken place against a back-
ground of political and economic
strains on both sides.
"Both Iraq and Iran seem to have
reached the conclusion that time is
running against them," commented
an independent military analyst in
Baghdad. "The war cannot be sus-
tained at its present pace indefinite-
ly, so the key question now is which
side is going to run out of energy
first."
Added a senior western diplomat,
"When historians look back and an-
alyze this war, I think they will view
the year 1986 as an important turn-
ing point"
The make-or-break quality of the
present phase of the war makes
Washington's reported contacts
with Tehran particularly sensitive.
American arms supplies to Iran,
whose armed forces were equipped
with U.S. weaponry under Shah
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, could al-
ter the strategic balance of the con-
flict in Tehran's favor.
Begun in September 1980 when
Iraq invaded Iran, the war has pit-
ted the political forces of Arab na-
tionalism and Islamic fundamental-
ism against each other. It has also
developed into a personal clash of
wills between two very different
dictators. Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini has vowed to continue
the war until Iraq's leader, Saddam
Hussein, is overthrown and put on
trial.
After a series of military set-
backs, Iraq is now conducting a
largely defensive war. The best that
Iraqi leaders can realistically hope
for is an honorable draw. An Iranian
victory, on the other hand, remains
a possibility. Such an outcome could
help destabilize and ultimately bring
down moderate Arab states from
Kuwait to Egypt.
The present, more intensive
phase of the war dates back to last
February, when Iran seized the Faw
Peninsula in southern Iraq. The am-
phibious assault across the Shatt al
Arab waterway caught the Iraqi
Army by surprise and was a major
blow to Iraqi morale. In reply, the
Iraqis seized the central Iranian
bordlr town of Mehran on May 17
but were forced to give it up less
than two months later.
Western analysts here believe
that, combined with a growing eco-
nomic crisis, the losses of Faw and
Mehran prompted the Iraqi leader-
ship to rethink its approach to the
war. It became clear that it was no
longer possible for Iraq to wage a
war that sheltered the civilian pop-
ulation from the conflict.
According to Iraqi figures, which
are accepted as accurate by west-
ern military analysts here, the size
oQff the Iraqi Army has been in-
creased by at least 275,000 soldiers
over the past 10 months. This
means that well over 1 million
Iraqis-60 percent of the eligible
male population-are now in active
military service.
A similar surge in military man-
power has occurred in Iran. Iranian
leaders claim to have trained 500
FILE ONLY
new battalions-roughly 250,000
men-in preparation for their
much-vaunted "final offensive."
Iran's population of 45 million is
three times the size of Iraq's, re-
flecting a much lower degree of mo-
bilization.
The population difference may be
one reason why Iran is more willing
than Iraq to put its soldiers into
highly dangerous situations. The
willingness of poorly educated Iran-
ian Shiite Moslems to sacrifice
themselves for the sake of the Is-
lamic revolution is also the one
clear strategic advantage enjoyed
by Tehran. It also may explain why
Iraqi leaders appear frightened of
incurring large numbers of casual-
ties.
"To put it crudely, the death of an
Iranian is not the same in military
terms as the death of an Iraqi," said
a western military attache in Bagh-
dad. "The Iraqi soldier is better
equipped and less easily replaced.
The Iraqis cannot afford a kill rate
of anything less than 3 to 1.*
In order to offset Iran's popula-
tion advantage, Iraq has been com-
pelled to use its technological su-
periority. In the past few months
Iraq has followed a much more in-
tensive pattern of bombing raids
against Iranian military and eco-
nomic targets. As a result, Iranian
oil production is estimated to have
plummeted in September and Oc-
tober to below 1 million barrels a
day. Some analysts believe the 1-
million mark is the level necessary
to sustain the Iranian war effort.
"Iraq is paying a heavy price for
maintaining a constant state of
readiness to withstand a large-scale
Iranian attack. It is trying to alter
the picture by increasing the eco-
nomic price of the war for the Iran-
ians," said a western diplomat here.
The fighting has extended into
the Persian Gulf, the outlet for 20
percent of the oil exports to the
noncommunist world. Iraq is en-
forcing an exclusion zone around
Kharg Island, Iran's main oil termi-
nal. Iran, for its part, has stepped
up its gunboat attacks on tankers
headed for Kuwait and Dubai in the
United Arab Emirates. According
to western shipping sources here, it
is becoming increasingly difficult to
find crews prepared to enter the
gulf these days.
Contino'4
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000201630002-1
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000201630002-1
Although the highly publicized
Iranian offensive has not yet mate-
rialized, both Iraqi and western an-
alysts are convinced that a large-
scale Iranian ground attack is inev-
itable. In order to be effective, the
Iranians are being careful about us-
ing their ultimate weapon: surprise.
Because it is impossible to hide
large numbers of soldiers at the
front, the Iranians must wait until
The enemy relaxes his guard.
Both western and Iraqi military
'analysts in Baghdad have been ex-
pecting an Iranian ground attack
since last September. The conven-
tional wisdom until recently was
that the offensive ' would come be-
fore the rainy season, which is just
beginning. Muddy terrain and heavy
cloud cover could, however, favor ,
the Iranians by making it more dif-
'fiicult for the Iraqis to use their
tanks and airplanes effectively in
the battle.
Many observers believe that the
Iianians could gain some ground if
they launched a large-scale offen-
sive. A major breakthrough, how-
ever, seems unlikely given the,
strength of Iraqi defenses.
Opinions are divided over which
country is better placed to sustain a
Jong, drawn-out war. Iraq has huge
debts-estimated at about $50 bil-
lion-but it also has vast oil re-
serves and wealthy friends. Iran has
little debt, few friends and a signif-
icantly reduced capacity to pump
oil.
Iran also has a population that
seems more willing than its Iraqi
counterpart to endure economic
hardship. Gasoline and heating oil
rationing, recently introduced in
Tehran, is a long way off in Bagh-
dad, however.
The Iraqi hope is that, if an Iran-
ian offensive fails to achieve the de-
sired results, the war will gradually
wind down. But Iraqi officials con-
cede that it is likely to drag on in
one form or another as long as Kho-
meini is alive.
"It has become a kind of personal
thing with Khomeini," said one well-
placed official. "He has toppled the
shah. He has humiliated America.'
That leaves Iraq as his last enemy."
Baghdad
* ?.
Vehran
IRAQ
, : Enlxnd
SAUDI
ARABIA
MILE IOMAN
Declassified and Approved For Release 2012/01/20: CIA-RDP90-00965R000201630002-1