NEW SOVIET WARFARE: NON-CRISIS CRISIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100440046-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: April 2, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

ST A T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/28: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100440046-6
LOS ANGELES TIMES
ARTICLE AFFEAP" 2 April 1985
Ott FAG!
New Soviet Warfare: Non-Crisis Crisis
Moscow Fans Small Fires Faster Than U.S. Can Put Them Out
By ARNOLD BECCHMAN
There is little doubt about the validity of warned the Soviets that any move to close non-military assets. Above all, we need
the following three propositions: First, an the gulf to the West by use of Soviet mill- new thinking, with new technology and
unspoken agreement exists between the tary power would be met by U.S. counter- resources. However effectively we oppose
United States and the Soviet Union to avoid force. So what do we see? The gulf is closed the Soviet Bloc, we must overcome the
a crisis that could lead to nuclear war; by the Iraq-Iran war, and the Soviet Union ingenious scenario of the "non-crisis crisis"
second, the Soviet drive for ideological and can't be blamed for that catastrophe. No that the Radical Entente has preparedJor
political world domination is unquench- U.S. counterforce need apply. us and that is working so well for them.
able, and Mikhail S. Gorbachev's accession The "non-crisis crisis" has become an
to power will change nothing in that drive; institutionalized feature of contemporary Arnold Beichman is a visiting scholar at
third, without American military power, international 'relations, as normal as a the Hoover Institution.
and President Reagan's evident determi- dynamite-packed Mercedes in Beirut. Five
nation to use that power, the world future countries have been tagged as responsible
would belong to the Kremlin. for the spread of the "non-crisis crisis"
Both sides agree that toe-to-toe con- syndrome. According to Avigdor Hasel-
frontations between America and the korn, senior analyst at Analytical Assess-
Soviet Union are dangerous and must be ments, a division of Eaton Corp. in Cleve-
avoided. In the past the United States and land, they make up the Radical Entente:
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Libya and Syria-
have gone to extraordinary lengths to all dedicated, quite openly, to the over-
signal the Soviet Union (during, for exam- throw of American power and allies in
ple, the 1956 Hungarian uprising, the 1968 Central America, the Middle East, Africa
invasion of Czechoslovakia and the 1981 and the Pacific Rim. These five cannot be
Polish crisis) that neither Washington nor called satellites, yet their conspiracies and
NATO would exploit Soviet troubles within achievements in no way injure-in fact,
its East European empire. Nor has Wash- they further-Soviet interests.
ington done as much about Afghanistan as It could even be that the Soviet Union
it could, thanks to the unspoken agreement has no "need to know" what the Radical
to avoid repetitions of events like Nikita S. Entente is up to. After all, why should
Khrushchev's 1962 Cuban missile crisis, or Politburo member Gorbachev have to have
Josef Stalin's Berlin blockade of 1948. known about a probable Libyan-inspired
Faced with four more years of Reagan, Irish Republican Army plot to assassinate
Moscow has evolved a new form of quasi- the British Cabinet at a seaside hotel, when
warfare that, while minimizing the risk of he was to visit Margaret Thatcher hi 'a few
superpower confrontation, may yet weak- months' time? Or about a Libyan embassy
en U.S. power and resolve. I call it the shootup that killed a policewoman in
"non-crisis crisis." By that I mean the London? Better he shouldn't know, and
creation of micro-crises in different parts thereby enjoy the benefits of deniabiilfty.
of the world that-while threatening the The most urgent question before R man
stability, existence and alignment of the is ow can state-of-the-art crisis
Western alliance-are events for which management deal with the "non-crisis
the Soviet Union cannot be held directly crisis, which is intended to stretch our
accountable. military and intelligence resources? At
The "non-crisis crisis" allows Moscow to present, we cannot deal with a micro-crisis,
occupy the high ground of statesmanship such as the wipeout of Marines in Lebanon.
while restless and politically ambitious All we can do is withdraw, with all its awful
junior allies or surrogates can operate on consequences. &6_?'
the low ground of terrorism, hit-and-run We are the fire brigade chasing fifesset
border raids and even air battles over the by a gang of arsonists who can se`t,!ires
Gulf of Sidra. How can it hurt the Soviets if faster than they can be extinguished.' The
6th Fleet Tomcats shoot down Libyan jets object of attack must be the arsonists; -not
in disputed international waters, and noth- the fires. We need a school of "non=crisis
ing else happens to affect Col. Moammar crisis" managers-interdepartmental ?-and
Kadafi's incumbency? interservice in nature, with the power a nd
The best current example of a "non- imagination to deploy our military-:and
crisis crisis" at work is Central America,
where the United States is bogged down in
El Salvador and Nicaragua, and there is no
U.S.-Soviet confrontation-and no Soviet
losses, only gains. Another scene is the
Persian Gulf: President Jimmy Carter
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/28: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100440046-6