BEHIND THE SOVIETS' AFGHANISTAN COUP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170152-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 152
• Publication Date: January 14, 1980
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Si Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/2
THE WASHINGTON POST
14 January 1980
8: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170152-8
ack ders?n
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Behind the Sovie
The grand Soviet strategy in lower
Asia calls for the dismemberment of
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran into
separate ethnic states. Then the
Soviets will pick up the pieces and ab-
sorb them, one by one, into the Soviet
Union.
This is the sobering, secret assess-
ment of intelligence analysts who
have watched the Soviet sweep unto
Afghanistan with deepening alarm.
The Central Intelligence Agency saw
the strategy developing long nefore
Soviet troops roared into Afghanistan.
It would give the Russians frontage
on both the Persian Gulf and the In-
dian Ocean - warm-water ports that
the czars merely dreamed about in
past years. But far more is at stake--
than mere seaports; the Russian Bear
would like to get 'its paws on Iran's
fabulous oil fields.
The Persian Gulf not only is the
main source of Western Oil; it is also
the artery which carries this lifeblood
to the industrial world. The Russians
have already moved into Afghan air
bases, which are less than 500 miles
from Hormuz Strait as the jet flies.
The narrow exit from the Persian
Gulf "s the choke point where the
Soviets. could block the western life-
line. Thus, they already have a power-
ful bargaining position in any future
negotiations over Persian Gulf Oil.
The Soviets, meanwhile, are ex-
pected to maneuver dangerously
closer to the edge of world war, tak-
ing precautions all the while to avoid
it. secret CIA strategic review,
analyzing the prospect of a future
Soviet move against Iran, suggests:
0 J
1
Y-V - ghan. i slan Loup..
It is entirely possible that the
Soviets would use Afghans and the
Pathians/Baluchis as proxy forces to
form a surrogate army, thus avoiding
the use of Soviet troops and a major
confrontation with the United States.
"As such events escalate," the CIA
scenario continues. "the United States
..as well as other [allies] would be
called on to support both Pakistan and
Iran ..'. which would cause a further
spread of the war.
. "The United States, catering to Mus-
lim interests in order to regain access
to Mideast oil, to preclude Russian ex-
pansionism and to attempt to return
stability to South Asia, would be, re-
quired to commit resources of some
mature..."
Already - the Soviets have risked
destroying detente and antagonizing
the Moslem world. They have driven
their two powerful' adversaries, the
United States and China, closer to-
gether. The sparks from a Russian-
American confrontation- over the Per-
sian Gulf could also set off a nuclear
powder keg.
In the opinion of the analysts, the
Soviets would never have taken such
enormous risks for the sake of Af-
ghanistan - a bleak, and landlocked
country abused by man and nature. It
is a land of steep, jagged, snow-swirl-
ing mountains, of barren, brown blaz-
ing deserts, of primitive, mud-walled
villages. ,
With perverse pride, the Afghans
call their country "the land of the fur
and the fan" because it is bedeviled by
extreme temperature variations: It is
harsh country, poor in resources, and
hardy people live there.
No, the Russian Bear did not bite
off this indigestable piece of earth,
with any idea that it would be a juicy
plum. The plum lies beyond the tow-
ering mountains, beyond the dry
deserts, beyond the dusty steppes of
Afghanistan.
Intelligent specialists believe the
Kremlin has already started to imple- f
ment its grand strategy. As early as i
1978, the Soviets sought to split off an l
independent Pushtunistan from Af-
ghanistan and Pakistan.
Presumably, Soviet troops will now
expedite the process that their puppet
Nur Mohammad Taraki, the late Af-
ghan president, tried to initiate.
This will be followed, it is antici-
pated, by attempts to carve up Af-
ghanistan into other ethnic states, in-
cluding an autonomous Baluchistan
and Uzbekistan. The ethnic popula- f
tions, of course, are spread across the
borders into Iran, Pakistan and Russia I
itself.
Thus, the pressure will build up to
include the ethnic minorities of Iran
and Pakistan in the new autonomous
states. Already, the Soviets are, stir-
ring up the ethnic minorities in;Iran
with clandestine radio broadcasts I
across the border.
The minorities, eager for autonomy.
can be expected to play the Soviet
game. But the Soviets have a different
scenario than the minorities probably
have in mind. Soviet- cadres. are
waiting to guide and utimately to con-
trol the ethnic movements. In the end, ;
the Russians hope to absorb the auton-I
omous states into the Soviet system:
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/28: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170152-8