TITO'S STRATEGY: MAKE INVADERS PAY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170146-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 11, 2012
• Sequence Number: 146
• Publication Date: January 27, 1980
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170146-5
'V
ARTICLE APPRARZD
ON PAG3_2Z___,
THE WASHINGTON POST
27 January 1980
Tack Anderson
Tito's Strategy:
Make Invaders Pay
None of the aging, ailing communist
leaders has been the subject of more
Kremlin watching and waiting in re-
cent years- than, has President Josip
Broz Tito -of Yugoslavia. The Soviet
hierarchy obviously has been hoping to
use Tito's demise to restore its hold on
his strategic Balkan stronghold.
But the old partisan fighter-a thorn
in the Russian bear's paw for virtually-'
the entire threeand-a-half decades of his;-
rule-may, have, succeeded in dashing
the Kremlin's high hopes one last time.
Several secret US. intelligence reports
decribe the apparatus set up by Tito in
the past 10 or 12 years to prevent Soviet
domination of Yugoslavia after his
dew, If his plans work out-and US.
analysts think there's a good chance they
will-the maverick communist leader
will give his antique adversaries in
Moscow a posthumous poke in the eye.
The heart of Tito's grand plan is the as-
surance that an Afghanistan style adven-
ture by the Kremlin would exact a fear-
ful toll. This assurance, in Tito's view,
would be enough to dissuade the Soviets
from embarking on such an adventure.
One secret report, prepared by the.
Defense Intelligence Agency, analyzes-
Tito's overall strategy this way:'-
"Tito--has'-._ continued a two-faceted policy
toward the U.S.S.R..... which reflects a
sensitivity to Soviet interests in Yugo-
slavia without- yielding -Yugoslav inde-
pendence. Tito appeared,' for example;.'
to want to balance dependence on for.--
eign weapons sources between the
United States and the U.S.S.R. At the. ,
same time, Yugoslav military exercises .
... clearly advertise resolve and capa-'
bilities to defend the homeland."`,
A top-secret CIA report notes that the
Yugoslavs at one point took their con
-terse direr It to the .. ambassador m
Ae "Senior military cers told,
the U.S: ambassador. that Yugoslavia is'
interested in closer military relations,"
the report states. "One officer played
down the regime's occasional assertions
that. the West posed a threat to Yugo-.
slavia as merely a political maneuver. ` ..
As for the effect of Tito's strategy on
the Kremlin, the DIA analysis says:.
"Such careful orchestration of Yugo-
slavSoviet relations [by Tito] probably
reduces the likelihood of overt Soviet.
meddling in Yugoslavia, but not Soviet
desires to increase its influence there."
Here's how the defense intelligence,
experts assess the chances, of Soviet
domination after Tito's death:
"Without Tito's guiding hand, the
Soviets might expect a larger measure
of success... but we estimate that
"-The-Yugoslav Federation will-sur-
vive in spite` of internal- problems that
,will seriously threaten it.- ^ =:. .. -
U.SS.R, is unlikely to invade a
cohesive- Yugoslavia, and the Yugoslav
military will, serve as an effective and
possibly the primary unifying force."
In recent Years. Tito worked fever-
ishly to strengthen his nation's military
capability. His success in t His crud
venture was measured in a U.S. intelli-
gence ocumen whose utle says i a l:
"Yugoslavia's Strategy s to Make Any
Invader Pay a Heavy Price.
Yugoslavia has a standing army and
air force of 250,000, bolstered by more
than a million trained reservists known
as "territorials." U.S. ` intelligence
analysts had this. to say about the role
of the reserves: .
"Yu oslavia's defense system places
great emphasis on the territorial force. .
a nationwide artisan force ... organ
.ized and trained at the local level. The
territorial force, an outgrowth of Yugo-
slav concerns over the Soviet invasion
_ o fC C z e c h c . L s l o v a k i a in 1968. i adg u of
both men and women... .
'The national defense law of 1968,
strengthened in 1974, makes every citi-
zen responsible for resisting foreign at--
tack.... The government and military
take every opportunity to demonstrate
that-an attack on the country would in--
volve.e a:potential--aggressor. -in- a_
protracted, bloody conflict."
The Kremlin watched closely as the
partisan ..,network ; took shape. And -
-I
whilethe Soviets-publicly pooh-poohed
the creation of guerrilla forces, one in-1
telligence report notes, `Belgrade has
strongly criticized Moscow for belit-
tling these partisan accomplishments.'-' 1
The citizen soldiers would 'be Yugosla-
via's second line of defense. A secret U.S.
report explains that, as Tito planned it,
the country's defense "would rest ini-
tially on the regular army, which would
engage the enemy along the borders and
delay the advance until the territorials
could be mobilized."
;The big flaw in the'partisan system,'
my associate -Bob Sherman was told, is,
that the Yugoslav territorials are poorly
armed, and- only. a small percentage of
them have seen military service in re-,-
cent years. `They're equipped primarily,
with small arms, mostly.old weapons cast;
off by regular, units," a source noted.
Still, U.S. analysts feel, the Yugoslavs
are equipped, by. terrain,, tradition and
temperament, towage the kind.of' guer-.
rills warfare that could seriously disrupt'
the Red Army just as Yugoslav (and.
Russian) partisans harassed the, Nazi war
machine during World War, 11.
The key to Tito's hoped-for legacy of
continued independence is an orderly.
succession to power after his death, and
eternal vigilance against Soviet infiltra
tion. A new constitution set up 'a con,"
plex system of collective leadership, and
the Communist Party apparatus- was
revamped for tighter discipline. And in, 1974, a DIA report noted, Tito purged his
top military leadership of pro-Soviet elee,
ments. Tito's power as head of state will
pass to two deputies after his death.
They have been making decisions at the
aging partisan's bedside since a renewed.
illness threatened his liferr+i
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170146-5