CARTER HAD WARNING ON AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100170145-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 145
• Publication Date: January 28, 1980
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STET _ .. __.::_ _ ... ... . ~ I .. ... ............... ~.. ...~. .............._...............,...._ ..
By his own'admisslon President Car-
ter was caught off guazd by the, Af-
ghanistan invasion-because. he. trusted
his ,summit ppartner, -Leonid. -L Brezh-
nev, who had.blandly;denied that the
Soviets had aggression: in mind. After-
ward. Carter lamented that the ~SQviet
leader had lied to him.,:,,, ~ ~ , ~ ;-~ -~~
THE WASHINGTON POST
28 January 1980
the report: Soviet fears that they'd bt
unable to control Amin.. that they
.,.,., .._ . _ -__---- --- - -o-
retain atenuous hold'on power. The _ situation, and that the United Slates
:government's position';. continues; to - might show "assertiveness" by taking
,erode, however.'" ~ .: ; -. ~ ,-_; counteraction elsewhere, or maybe kil-
;, :The report cited. intelli~gg~e_~n__c~~~e__warn '' ling, the..strategic arms limitation
.~in s ~of."faze somew at increase3 r~i- treaty (SALT ID ~ ; .- ..,. ,. ~;
te committee
on in
i
i
Se
h
visi
na
r orne
e
, In addition to t
Certainly: , the evidence .was avails- Hess of o>; a oviet a
ble to the presideat- that: the??Soviets r a Soviet mi its istnct a scent to report, another knowledgeable source
were preparing to strike across the Ai- .:.Afghanistan,' an specu ate t at t e 'gave the Carter administration a solid,:
ghan border. ;Last September,: a: top- ussians -were concern as owe early warning of the-Soviet attack. In
secretreport of the Senate Foreiga-Re-.. ossi toe nee over rev cua a October, Pakistani Foreign Minister
Iations~Committee laid' out.the proba- _ Agha Shahi told the_Senate~committee-
bility of? a~ Russian military move there ~ ~ ~ u e repo ..raised 'the possi- . and Secretary of .State Cyrus R Vanee~
with remarkable clarity..,.~n:. ~, -~ ? = bility that the Russians',increased mili- "flat out that the Soviets were building ;
The report, Prepared by three staff `'tary readiness in. the area .might re- up.for a move, into, Afghanistan:ands
niembera, was distributed to-key Sena- ,fleet ~~~ unfolding,.coherent plan xo `., then Pakistan," sources told my repor-',
tots on the committee. ~ Its 'contents ? intervene massively ~ .to support [Af- tars Dale Van Alta and Hal Straus ; ~i ~.
wen also communicated to the White ,'ghan President Hafizullah] Amin." In
~. ,~ ;~..~; .,,,.?+r3'!s"a,.=`..,:: =.this instance,.. of course, there was a .
Ho~''~ ~ ~ massive intervention, but one that r? .
I have obtained a, copy of .tht still- . salted ~ president-Amin's. overthrov~?
secret Septr 21 report; titled ..Develop- and execution.... .;:.,? , : ~ -
ments in Afghanistan and_ Possible In- The committee report listed five far-
creased Soviet Intervention:" `'If' the tors, that; were "pushing ;Moscow to-
president had read it, he might, have ward deeper military involvement" in
been less taken aback by the Russians Afghanistan: ? ~ .
Christmas-week invasion.=' ' ? -Traditional ;Russian designs on its '
-The 'report .;'notes ~airst'~.that the '~, neighbor dating back to the czars. ~-
bloody coup which replaced one Soviet, ~ Hopes that a l~iarxist ally mighC'
puppet with anotherearlier~inSeptem ':: add=,to Soviet influence on Pakistan,
her gave;;the,':Kiemliiz":essentially two. T India`aad Iran .. ~^'~
choices. ~Inereastk. its ~.tiommitnient m ~" "...Desire Lo`r a buffer against China. ?~
Afghanistan~or'let a` Soviet backed re-.~.,4 ? The need to show,the United States
gime.godown th~drain "' r ; ~~ ` ~ l ~"~ that the Soviets would noE let its hands
Thy reasonfh~e Russians~~aceil, this `-.tie tied by detente. w;~Y i{f
decisioa~the repgrt.explained?was the ? "The creeping military logic" that
deteriorating situationin~Afghanistan-''.~ :the Afghan rebels could-be beaten by a
Noting.,"widespread;=but::: uncoordin- ~ little more Russian-involvement.,. -?
ated, insurgencies - . in all parts~of ,~;:Three .factors,"influencing Moscow ~'
tha country:'. the report added...~'Ex,.: , io be very-cautious'; weFe,also listed in :'
J12t2ICL1C li'Y~kF~
n
p~ PAG3
Jack Aaiderson
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/28 :CIA-RDP90-009658000100170145-6