GIS MIGHT FACE SOVIETS IN NICARAGUA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100130016-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: November 21, 1984
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/12/21 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000100130016-3
-!r~Ti ~'LF - EP"ED
LACK ANDERSON
WASHINGTON POST
21 November 1984
Gis Might Face Soviets in Nicaragua
I f U.S. forces invade Nicaragua, they might find
themselves fighting Soviet combat troops. This
disturbing possibility is raised in a recent
"codeword" CIA report--classified higher than top
secret. The report, w ich was reviewed by my
associate Dale Van Atta, reveals that a Soviet
combat brigade has been practicing near San Pedro
in Cuba for an airborne assault of Nicaragua.
This is the same Soviet 3,000-man brigade that
made headlines in 1979 when U.S. intelligence
discovered it.
When asked about the report, an administration
official said intelligence analysts believe that one
explanation for the training exercise in recent
weeks is that the Soviets plan to use the brigade
against American invaders or U.S.-backed
"contras." The Soviet brigade could be flown to
Nicaragua in less than two hours. ?
The CIA is convinced that President Reagan's..
invasion o Grenada radically changed the KGB's
assessment of U.S. intentions. The Soviets learned
from Grenada that Reagan wasn't kidding when he
threatened to stop the spread of Marxism in
Central America and the Caribbean.
But far from backing down as they did in the
1962 missile crisis, the Soviets have been
responding to every escalation in the Reagan ;
administration's rhetoric and action with
escalations of their own. They clearly don't intend
to leave Nicaragua's defense to a handful of
paramilitary construction workers as they did in
Grenada.
In the wake of the Grenada invasion, the Soviets
advised Cuban President Fidel Castro to-withdraw
from Nicaragua any Cuban "advisers" who were not e
combat-trained. Some 2,000 Cuban civilians,
including teachers, left Nicaragua at the start of the . I
Christmas school vacation. Only 1,000 ? 1
returned-but they were younger, tougher and ? '
better trained militarily.
U.S. intelligence reports estimate thatthere are
now 5,000 Cuban advisers in Nicaragua, 2,000 of
them military or security personnel. The ?_
Nicaraguan army, which the Sandinistas say
numbers only 30,000, actually has "a solid 100,000
troops" who can be called up within 12 hours,
according to a recent top-secret C re rt. This is
by far the largest military force in Central America.
The reason the administration was so concerned
over intelligence reports that Soviet MiG21s were
being delivered to Nicaragua is that these
sophisticated planes would make the Nicaraguan air,.
force overnight the most powerful in the region. -
The MiG21s could dominate the air over
Honduras and El Salvador, and pose a serious
threat to the Panama Canal.
That's why the administration has been warning
the Soviet Union and Nicaragua since 1981 not to
introduce MiG21s into Central America-warnings
the Soviets have respected so far.
Nicaragua already has pilots qualified to fly -
MiG21s. Eighty received training in Bulgaria four _
years ago, and 30 stopped off in Cuba on their way
home to maintain their proficiency in Castro's
Soviet-made planes.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/12/21 : CIA-RDP90-00965R000100130016-3 `