CASEY S CIA: NEW CLOUT, NEW DANGER

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CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2
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June 16, 1986
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ART Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 ON PAGE A&9 V_- F WORLD REPOR 16 June 1986 CASEY'S CIA: NEW CLOUT, NEW DANGER Under a combative spymaster, "the company" is back. Covert operations are in style, and old hands are back at work. But controversy rises: Is the CIA leading the nation down a perilous new path? rehired, and the agency is flooded with new job appli- cants. A morning briefing book from Casey, replete with charts and graphs, pro- vides Ronald Reagan with a daily roadmap to the world. Few dispute that Casey has improved the quality of intelligence gathering and analysis, especially on terrorism. One measure of its new man- date is that officials outside the CIA are eagerly assigning more tasks to the agency. There is no doubt that morale is shooting up within the ranks of "the company." But critics, increasingly vocal, argue that change is coming at a high price. They say the greatest danger is that Casey is pushing the agency into covert wars-as in Nicaragua, Angola and Af- ghanistan-that can't be won. They as- sert that U.S. intelligence has failed in key countries such as Lebanon and botched the handling of Soviet defectors. They fear Casey will re-create a "rogue elephant" and return the agency to its low state of the early 1970s. number of accused turn- coats, including convictions of the Walker family and Ronald Pelton. On June 4. Jonathan Pollard ended an- other case, pleading guilty to spying for Israel. Many of these cases do not touch the CIA itself. But Casey wears two hats: As director of the CIA, he is automatically Director of Central Intelligence. sitting atop a pyramid that includes the supersecret National Se- curity Agency (NSA), the Defense Intelligence Agen- cy (DIA) and the National Reconnaissance Office ^ Casey is "surely one of the heroes of .4 merica 's fight for freedom in the post- war era ... The revitalization of an in- telligence community is one of the things we celebrate here tonight. " -President Reagan at an OSS veterans dinner, May 29, 1986. "I think Casey has gone off the deep end. His program of action coupled with his enormous power make him a very dangerous man. "-A noted author on intelligence issues. To his supporters. William J. Casey is a savior who is leading the Central Intel- ligence Agency out of the wilderness into a new era of prominence and power. To his critics, he is a blustering autocrat whose impulsiveness threatens America. On only one thing do most agree: At 73. Bill Casey has become the most influential director of the CIA since Allen Dulles, whose reign ended a quar- ter century ago. Along the way, he has not only revived the CIA but made it a formidable player in American policy overseas-and the center of a growing storm at home and abroad. U.S. intelligence opera- tions are now one of the fastest growing portions of the federal budget, expand- ing even more rapidly than the Pentagon's share. The CIA is erecting a massive new office building that will double the size of its head- quarters in Langley, Va. Many old CIA hands re- leased in the 1970s have been Plugging leaks, nabbing turncoats More recently, as the nation's spymas- ter. Casey has been embarrassed by a hemorrhaging of leaks from within the intelligence community and revelations that a series of U.S. officials have been turning over American secrets to the Soviet Union and other nations. In past weeks, leaks have sprung regarding U.S. eavesdropping on Libya and the Soviets and the presence of a high-level U.S. spy in the Polish government. Casey, charged by law with guarding security secrets, is lobbying hard for tougher steps against leakers, including stepped- up FBI probes and more lie-detector tests, but the leaks continue. Meanwhile, U.S. prosecutors have had their hands full with cases against an unprecedented (NRO). A problem in any of these agencies winds upon Casey's desk. With so many leaks and spy trials. it was only a matter of time before hard- liners in the Reagan administration col- lided head-on with the media. That fight has just begun, and the CIA director has been in the thick of it. threatening prose- cution of several news organizations. At the eye of the storm, Bill Casey rests easy. His office on the seventh floor of Langley is lined with pictures of several Presidents he has served, and "the director," as he is known, brushes aside the fires around him. There have been so many over the years that Casey seems immune to them. He speaks with authority, and he acts as though he- and his boss-have only a short time left to remake the world. It is that connection to the boss, Ronald Reagan. that is Casey's greatest source of power. Reagan likes Casey for many of the same reasons that he is drawn to White House Chief of Staff Donald Regan: Both are bluff Irish- men. self-made millionaires. men of Reagan's generation who love risks and never walk away from a fight. Casey is even one-up: More than Regan. he is an ideological soul mate of the President. They have been close ever since Reagan called in Casey to run his 1980 cam- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 paign. Reagan rewarded him with the CIA directorship and made him the first head of the agency to sit in the cabinet. When Casey took over in 1981, the agency had been in trouble for nearly a decade. Its image was scarred in the early 1970s by disclosures of assassina- tion plots, experiments with mind-al- tering drugs and spying on U.S. citi- zens during the Watergate era. Congress had reacted with budget cuts and restrictions on the agency. The ranks of senior agents were deplet- ed-so much that by the time Ameri- can hostages were seized in Iran in 1979, Washington had little sense of what had been happening there. For- eign sources elsewhere had cut their ties to the CIA, fearing exposure. Mo- rale throughout the agency was low. Adm. Stansfield Turner, Casey's pre- decessor under President Carter, had focused on technical intelligence gather- ing, lacking a mandate to restore the agency to its prescandal status. Before that, a series of directors under Presi- dents Ford and Nixon in the mid-1970s were preoccupied with limiting the dam- age from the scandals they inherited. Bigger budget, higher spirits While still new on the job, Casey quickly got Reagan's consent to over- ride Budget Director David Stockman and undertake an ambitious long-term restoration. The result: A $24 billion spy budget that has increased by some 25 percent annually. The CIA's share of the budget is about S3 billion a year. "Casey is a doer and risk taker who's revived the agency's activist spirit," says former Director William Colby. Under Casey,-the intelligence services have about 16,000 employes engaged in activities that range from analyzing sat- ellite photos of Iranian troop movements to undermining foreign governments. Relatively few-albeit an important few-are involved in the more romantic cloak-and-dagger spying in dark corners of Moscow and East Berlin. There is more to the new CIA than affluence. From Mideast terrorism to high-tech smuggling by the East bloc, complex new challenges are thrusting it into new areas and altering the way it collects and packages information. To adapt, Casey has boosted manpower by 2,500. Two thirds of the agency's em- ployes have been hired in the past de- cade, giving Casey wide latitude in shap- ing a new generation of professionals. The CIA's higher profile and the country's changing mood are conferring a new respectability and sparking a surge of new applicants-up to 150,000 a year. vices." Most helpful on terrorism are Only 1 percent are accepted. By con- Israel, Italy, Egypt and Morocco. trast, as many as 45,000 apply each year Less is known about the effectiveness to the Foreign Service, and the Peace of CIA efforts to strike at Mideast terror- Corps had 13,000 applicants in 1985. Isis through surrogates. But at least one In his rebuilding, Casey has given project went tragically awry. The CIA priority to restoring so-called human trained a renegade Lebanese counterter- intelligence (HUMINT)-a CIA term rorism unit responsible for a 1984 car- for old-fashioned spying. Casey's en- bomb blast that killed 80 civilians and thusiasm for cloak-and-dagger action injured 200. The strike-not authorized has been undiminished since his days of by the CIA-was aimed at a leader of the running more than 100 agents in Eu- Shiite group believed to have engineered rope during World War II for the Of- the bombing of the Marine barracks. fice of Strategic Services. In sharp contrast, the U.S. is consid- Once in command, Casey rehired ered the world's best in the two catego- most of the 800 agents let go by ries of electronic intelligence: SIGINT. Turner. Casey, says former CIA official the acronym for signal intelligence and George Carver, "is attuned to the es- communications, and IMINT, for radar sentiality of human intelligence with all and photo imagery,. SIGINT comes its inevitable messiness." On a trip to from intercepted messages and IMINT Central America, Casey made a point from ground and satellite stations that of meeting with every agent in the field, provide pictures of everything from mis- pa aneral stopping to talk with every sile deployments to highway conditions. Despite his efforts, many respected High tech and dose analysis analysts believe the U. S. still trails oth- Even critics give Casey high marks for er nations in the scope and quality of upgrading the quantity and quality of undercover activity. Natsesal Intelligence Estimates (NIE), These same analysts say problems the basic assessments of global political, with human intelligence account partly military aad economic trends. In 1980, for several alleged failures- there were 12 NIE's a year. Now, there ? Lebanon: While the CIA had reason are more than 60, as well as several to suspect that Iranian-backed terrorists hundred long-range research projects. would eventually bomb the U.S. Marine Much of this, sources say, is due to barracks in Beirut, it lacked informa- Deputy Director Robert Gates, who has tion needed to prevent the 1983 attack also opened new lines to outside experts. or to warn of its imminence. Says an In 1980, the CIA hosted two or three Israeli intelligence source: "The CIA is academic conferences a year. Now, un- still in the dark in Lebanon." der Gates's direction, there are up to 75. ? Grenada: Closer to home, the U.S. To aid government consumers of in- had no clue that a faction of the ruling telligence, CIA analysts are also permit- New Jewel Movement was plotting to ted to highlight dissenting views as well assassinate Prime Minister Maurice as inform readers which assessments are Bishop in 1983. The CIA also underesti- based on speculation and which on hard mated the size of the Cuban force on the fact. Other Casey practices include a island, complicating the U.S. invasion. weekly watch report pinpointing trou- ? Chernobyl: Despite spy-in-the-sky ble spots around the globe. satellites orbiting over the Soviet Union, Insiders complain that Casey often the CIA knew nothing of the recent interprets analyses to suit his views. nuclear disaster for three days. It found Ralph McGehee, who spent 25 years in out only when Sweden publicly prodded the agency, says flatly that Casey "has Moscow to confirm the accident. distorted intelligence to rationalize co- Casey has installed a sophisticated, vert operations." One senior analyst, computerized center for keeping track John Horton, quit in protest in 1984 of terrorists, but the CIA so far has had after Casey rejected his Mexico analysis scant success penetrating their organi- by scribbling, "This is a bunch of crap" zations. Senator David Durenberger across it. "Casey wanted an alarmist (R-Minn.), chairman of the Senate In- view of Mexico's stability to rationalize telligence Committee, says the agency's U.S. goals in Central America," Hor- greatest successes come from electronic ton says. spying. One near success was an elec- But Casey has been known to yield tronic interception that almost prevent- when facts tell a story he dislikes. The ed the bombing of a Berlin nightclub. White House was unhappy to hear it "The best stuff," Durenberger ex- when the CIA told Reagan-correctly, plains, "comes from human sources, but as it turned out-that a boycott of a that's almost exclusively provided by Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe liaison with foreign intelligence ser- would not work. Casey's record also Continued Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 includes moments of uncanny accuracy By far the most controversial feature as a forecaster. One example: Months of the new CIA is its aggressive leader- before Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev ship in U.S.-sponsored covert opera- died. Casey sent Reagan a memo breez- tions, now consuming Sb00 million a ily concluding in race-track form: year. The President has made Casey "Chernenko peaked too soon. Kiri- stage manager of the so-called Reagan lenko faded in the stretch.... If I had Doctrine-the policy of aid to rebels to bet money, I'd say Andropov on the against Soviet-backed eoyernments in nose and Gorbachev across the board." Despite improvements in intelligence gathering, Casey has stirred up a hor- net's nest of critics, both within the Reagan administration, where officials anonymously-though gingerly-wor- ry about his assertive style, and on Capi- tol Hill. The director's relations with Congress, though better today, have of- ten been rocky. Beginning with charges of personal financial irregularities, there have been periodic calls for his resigna- tion. The rancor peaked when Congress found he had ordered the mining of Nicaraguan harbors without telling key members. "If Bill Casey were Paul Re- vere, he wouldn't have told us the red- coats were coming until it was in the papers," fumed Representative Norman Mineta (D-Calif.). Angola, Afghanistan, Nicaragua and Cambodia, along with lesser operations in other countries. Like Reagan, Casey sees covert oper- ations abroad as a way to stem Mos- cow's "creeping imperialism." In speech after speech, he describes the Mideast oil fields and the isthmus be- tween North and South America as pri- mary targets of the Kremlin. Moscow, he believes, creates problems of unrest that defy solution by diplomacy or troops, leaving the U.S. with only one option: Providing assistance to forces trying to prevent consolidation by Sovi- et-backed regimes. Risks vs. rewards Many critics-from Congress to for- mer top intelligence operatives-say the not-so-secret wars are ineffective, creating situations the U.S. can't con- trol and using money better spent else- where. They also -argue that Casey's lack of a careful strategy could allow covert wars to escalate, dragging in U.S. troops and compromising the na- tion's strategic position. It is obviously a risky strategy. Nica- raguan contras were organized by the CIA and the Argentine military in 1981, but as their numbers have swelled they have proved hard to con- trol. There have been persistent reports of drug smuggling and human-rights abuses by the contras. U.S. military sources com lain that CIA Casey in ah'earlier role, advising rebels frequently has been shoddy, con- Reagan during 1980 presidential campaign ducted by retired military personnel A bigger source of controyersv-and who often speak no Spanish. the sharpest blow to Casey personally- The Pentagon's Special Forces say they are best suited to aid paramilitary was the redefecnon of senior KGB oper- ative Vitaly Yurchenko, trumpeted as the best CIA catch in years. He walked away from his CIA handlers at a Georgetown bistro last November, showing up the next day at the Soviet Embassy to denounce the agency. Previ- ously, Yurchenko had been debriefed for three months. That exercise yielded in- formation exposing several Americans who were selling secrets to the Soviets. L.' S. officials say Yurchenko simply changed his mind-largely, the CIA concedes, due to its poor handling of him. The affair was a personal setback for Casey, who took great interest in Yurchenko, insisting on having meals with him and disregarding agency skep- tics who questioned the defector's stabil- ity. In the scandal's aftermath, Casey ordered a complete overhaul of the sys- tem for dealing with defectors. But Defense Secretary. Weinberger has rejected CIA proposals to turn over the covert wars to the elite Army units. On occasion, the CIA has gone be- yond advising. Indeed, the most disput- ed single act of the Sandinista-contra conflict-the 1984 mining of Nicara- guan ports-was apparently performed not by contras, but by CIA agents. For- mer rebel leader Edgar Chamorro tells of a CIA official coming to his door at 2 a.m., asking him to sign a statement taking responsibility for the action. The effort against Nicaragua points up the uncertainty in all such covert operations. In none of the publicly known cases do the CIA-backed orga- nizations have realistic prospects of un- seating pro-Soviet regimes. In Afghanistan, the U.S. investment far exceeds that of all other covert ac- tions combined. Since l9'9. beginning even before the Soviet invasion late that year, the U.S. has funneled close to s l billion to rebels. Informed observers say that 30 percent or more of the aid has been stolen in the pipeline that goes through Pakistan. Despite that. Reagan decided last fall to increase aid to rebels in both Af- ghanistan and Angola, even providing them with Stingers-hand-held, top-of- the-line antiaircraft weapons. The CIA director promptly flew to Zaire to set up the aid flow to Angolan rebels. Ca- sey spends up to a third of his time in the field. Not all of Casey's subordinates share his enthusiasm for covert operations. Insiders say John McMahon, a CIA veteran who was the agency's No. resigned under pressure in February largely because of reservations about covert activity, particularly in Central America and Afghanistan. With time, the big exercises abroad have become increasingly contentious. That makes the term "covert" decided- ly a misnomer-and a major source of friction with Congress. "We're told not to discuss opera- tions, but then we hear it come up in White House briefings." says Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.). "It's stretching the oversight process to the breaking point..' Despite complaints, Congress places few blanket restrictions on CIA actions abroad. The only existing restraints are a longstanding ban on assassination of foreign leaders and a legal responsibil- ity to keep lawmakers "fully and cur- rently informed of all intelligence acti, - ities." Congress has exercised the power of the purse, cutting off funds for contras, then reinstating them with the proviso that the CIA not control the aid. If Congress. as expected. re- news aid yet agairr, that restriction al- most certainly will be lifted. Moscow's response has been any- thing but encouraging. Instead of re- straining adyenturism. Gorbachev is stepping it up. claim U.S. officials. They complain that he has recently completed a major buildup in Angola and launched an offensi%e in Afghani- stan, and his Sandinista friends are hanging tough in Nicaragua. All of this means that with equally determined leaders such as Reagan and Casey, the CIA will play an expanding role in countering Moscow. Conserva- tives will applaud and the critics will grow more vocal, warning of dire con- sequences for both the agency and the country. Meanwhile, as critic John Horton puts it. "You have to under- stand that Bill Casey is a '3-year-old man haying a tremendous time."' ^ by Robert A Manning -in Steven Emerson and Charles Fenyves Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 CIA Chief Casey, right, draws his power from the best possible source New buildings at the CIA's Langley, Va., office complex symbolize Casey's mandate. They will add I million square feet of office space, doubling the size of the agency's headquarters President Kennedy awards a National ' Security Medal to Allen Dulles, retiring head of CIA, in November, 1961 With President Nixon looking on, Wil- liam Colby becomes intelligence chief during the dark days for the agency Adm. Stansfield Turner takes over for ' President Carter. Turner focused more on technical advances, less on spies Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 4 Months before Leonid Brezh- nev died on Nov. 10, 1982, Ca- sey came close to predicting the order of Soviet succession up to today's leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. He would bet Gor- bachev "across the board," he told the President. Here, troops carry body of interim leader Konstantin Chernenko - Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos before their forced exit. With a solid spy network and sharp analysis, the CIA foresaw the rise of Communist rebels, ero- sion of Marcos's support, un- rest in the military and Marcos's vote fraud. The result: Reagan dumped Marcos, helping usher in the Aquino government I A crude mine sweeper pulls mines placed by the CIA from the harbor at Puerto Corinto in Nicaragua. The mining was one of the agency's most awk- ward moments under Casey. It forced him to apologize to Congress. which he failed to notify, and stirred world criti- cism of the U.S. actions - Even with its vast resources, the CIA could not prevent the car bombings in Beirut of two U.S. Embassy buildings and a Marine barracks in which 241 troops died. The most reliable information on radical Moslem groups-suspected in the attacks-is provided by other governments. including Israel Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 4RTil Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 ON PAG?U.S.\EItiS F WORLD REPORT 16 June 1986 When the critics speak, the CIA chief takes the offensive For Casey, a long career of weathering storms The wonder of William Casey may be less his buildup of the CIA than how he kept his power through controver- sies that might have defeated less deter- mined men. Since 1981. Casey has weathered storms over his finances, the choice of a political operative to run his clandestine operations, the CIA's mining of Nicara- guan harbors and his own role in Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign. He has from you people." It was vintage Ca- sey-deference rare, defiance toward all who would rein him in. A jealous guardian He is very sensitive to criticism. While attending a dinner of former Of- fice of Strategic Services (OSS) col- leagues, Casey erupted at Mark Wyatt, an old intelligence hand who had criti- cized CIA handling of defectors. Wyatt, he snapped. was a "selfish bastard" and fused to include $7.5 million worth of stock in Capital Cities Communica- tions, which later took over ABC. The blind-trust issue opened Casey to charges that he could be using one of the most sensitive public positions to line his pockets. Legality aside. say crit- ics, he had plainly violated the spirit of post-Watergate reforms aimed at im- posing ethical standards. "Here's a guy with more information about what's going on in the world than anyone, shifting large sums from wheat to oil," said a former White House aide. "It was outrageous." The clamor only stiffened Ca- sey's resolve to stay in the job. Mcfe than his personal pride was at stake. Casey was determined to return the CIA to the glory days that he knew when serving in the OSS, the agency's forerun- ner, and all signs point toward his staying through the Reagan Presidency. "Every time he's been under fire, he has been will- ing to gut it out," said Stuart clashed often with Congress, surviving "publicity seeker. calls for his firing from left and right. Casey was controversial long before Yet Casey today appears more secure he got the CIA job. As Richard Nixon's than ever as the U.S.'s top spy. His choice to head the Securities and Ex- secret-beyond his close ties to Rea- change Commission in 1971, he faced gan-seems to be a combination of keen stiff congressional opposition because of intelligence, crustiness and unswerving allegations that he had breached securi- confidence in his own judgment. ties laws. He prevailed by convincing Those qualities have been evident Congress that the lawsuits were trivial most of his life. Left fatherless at an early irritants that plague any big executive. age, the grandson of an Irish immigrant worked his way through Fordham Uni- His stormy SEC reign led Senator versity. While in St. John's law school, Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) to quip that Then. head of OSS spies in Europe Casey was the second most outra- geous" chairman after Kennedy's fa- ther, Joseph P. Kennedy. As at the CIA later, Casey brooked no meddling in his rule. Only five months after Casey took the CIA command, Repub- lican senators were calling for his ouster. The reasons: Yet another lawsuit over Casey's business dealings, as well as his appoint- ment of Max Hugel, a politician and businessman with no intelli- gence experience, to head clan- destine operations. Hugel was forced to resign. Even more controversial was his role in "Debate t " h ga e, t e ap- he supported himself, his mother and pearance of former President siblings investigating welfare cases. By Carter's briefing book in the Rea- his mid-30s, he had made his first million gan campaign before the debate as a lawyer, tax expert and investor. between the two candid t i a es n At first glance, nothing about Casey 1980. Treasury Secretary James Baker, suggests toughness. A tall, stoop-shoul- then a Reagan campaign official, said he dered man in a rumpled suit, he some- got the book from Casey. Casey, the times mumbles and casts a mild gaze at campaign manager, denied it. The ten- the world through heavy glasses. With sion in their relationship endures. his gray hair and lined face, he strikes Casey brought his most serious prob- the casual eye as a tired executive on lem on himself by refusing to follow the last commuter train home. standard practice and place his wealth, But Casey is hardly mild-mannered. estimated at $15 million, in a blind At a Washington party, he startled trust. It was two years before he relin- guests by snapping at the head of the quished control, and then only after Senate Intelligence Committee: "m reports that he held stock in firms that not going to take any more of this s*** dealt with the CIA. Even then, he re- Now, head of all U.S. Intelligence Spencer, a former Reagan politi- cal lieutenant. "And it worked." Although a number of Casey's actions have caused Reagan problems, the White House has yet to admonish Casey-at least publicly. "He is too formidable," says a former presi- dential adviser. "He wouldn't take any- body's guff." Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 hRTit,Lt Mir ON PAGE U.S.~;EWS E WORLD REPORT U.S. raises the veil to combat spies, leakers, while trying to curb the media While Willi am Casey retools the CIA, an unprecedented series of spy trials has revealed that the U.S. has lost a torrent of secrets to foreign powers. Like tales from the most bizarre spy thriller, disclosures of greed, betrayal and deception are pouring from court- rooms. More than half a dozen accused spies have been arrested, and a manhunt is under way for another who escaped. By Casey's estimate, the losses have been devastating to U.S. security. "Ev- ery method we have of obtaining intelli- gence-our agents, our relations with other intelligence services, our photo- graphic, electronic and communica- tions capabilities-have been severely damaged," he says. That may be hyper- bole to mislead Moscow. But by any measure, the losses are substantial. Two recent trials have revealed the disclosure of some of the nation's most Walker betrayed U.S. codes sensitive secrets to the Soviet Union. According to federal prosecutors, the Walker family spy ring for 16 years provided Moscow with precise details of U.S. military communications. The Walker ring-including former Navy men John, the ringleader, his son Michael and brother Arthur-betrayed wholesale the secret encoding of U.S. Navy messages. Adm. James Watkins, chief of naval operations, says the cost of offsetting the compromise of tech- nology will be $100 million. In a second courtroom, the govern- ment successfully prosecuted Ronald Pelton, a former midlevel employe of the National Security Agency, for allegedly betraying to the Soviet Union that the U.S. has for years been intercepting cod- ed secret Soviet military messages. The CIA has been particularly con- Going public to guard secrets Vurchenko waved as he redefected to Moscow-and then disappeared cerned about Pelton, because one of the highest objectives in espionage is to crack an enemy's codes. With that ac- complished, a country can learn anoth- er's plans. One of the most famous exam- ples occurred during World War II when the U.S. broke the Japanese code. The breakthrough led to the destruction of four Japanese aircraft carriers and victory in the Battle of Midway. Similar- ly, the breaking of the German code aided the Allies' invasion of Normandy. in retaliation for the ax The CIA itself has not escaped the rash of betrayals. A manhunt is under way for Edward Howard, the first CIA agent publicly known to have sold out to the Soviets. After being fired by the agency in 1983, Howard blew the cover of a Soviet military expert spying for the U.S. and revealed the methods of the CIA's Moscow station. Ironically, Howard used CIA countersurveillance techniques to elude FBI agents guard- ing his home in Santa Fe, N.M., last September and is still at large. The Soviets are not alone in harvest- ing U.S. secrets. China and Israel ob- tained classified documents from U.S. spies Larry Chin and Jonathan Pollard. Chin, an intelligence analyst who sold U.S. assessments to Peking for 30 years, committed suicide in jail. Pol- lard, who worked in Navv counterintel- ligence, pleaded guilty in' early June to spying for Israel. The CIA's own counterintelligence failures played at least a partial role in the drain of information. John Walker, Pelton and Howard all went to Vienna to meet with KGB handlers, but, says agency consultant Roy Godson. "We didn't catch them there. These penetra- tions could have been avoided by better counterintelligence." Soviet defector Vi- taly Yurchenko, who later redefected to Moscow, exposed the treachery of How- ard and Pelton to CIA interrogators. Some intelligence analysts fear that disclosures stemming from public trials such as those of Walker and Pelton may do more harm than good. Better, they claim, to turn spies into double agents or triple agents. Says William Stevenson, author of A Van Called In- Pollard spied for Israel, ,with results roiling American-Israeli relations trepid: "The worst effect of these trials will be to discourage foreign nationals from cooperating with us." The administration plainly hopes that by putting accused spies through public trials, and winning stiff punishments, it can deter other betrayals. But it also wants to safeguard information that is revealed in the trials. Increasingly, the CIA's efforts to lim- it information at spy trials-along with growing administration concerns about leaks of classified information-have put the Reagan team, and especially Casey, on a collision course with the press. At times. that conflict has over- shadowed the trials themselves. Top-level officials at the CIA report that the agency's chief public-informa- tion officer, George Lauder, regularly tries to persuade journalists to with- hold details considered too sensitive by the agency. On more than a half-dozen occasions, Casey personally has inter- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 vened successfully, persuading news or- ganizations not to print or broadcast stories he thought would damage na- tional security. Casey points out that he is obliged by law to protect "sources and methods" of intelligence gathering, and he has publicly said that journalists are show- ing more restraint. Threats of prosecution Casey has not always won, and lately he has become even more forceful in his campaign. The Washington Post and other news organizations have been told that the administration may prosecute if the leakage continues, and Casey has recommended prosecution of NBC. Managing Editor Leonard Downie of the Washington Post believes Casey's crusade stems from growing concern in Congress over the CIA's covert actions. "I am a bit skeptical about Casey's Pelton: Convicted of serving Moscow threats against the press," Downie says. "He could have made his con- cerns known in a more cooperative way. We have withheld information many times as a result of national-secu- rity concerns." NBC News President Larry Grossman says the network had broadcast last November a report about Pelton similar to one that later drew Casey's objections: "Apparently, Casey didn't see that one. His threats do not sound carefully thought out." But even if the administration does deflect attention from the spy trials and covert operations, it still must contend with the underlying causes of both treachery and leaks: Greed, ego and the machinations of Washington infighting. by Robert A Manning with Charles Fenyvesi. Steven Emerson and Jonathan Rosenbloom Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 " U.S.NEWS ~ WORLD REPORT 16 June 1986 With facts, files Their sources range from spies and satellites to newspaper clippings. What they don't know they fill in with their best guesswork. That is how U.S. intelligence an- alysts build "The Soviet Estimate," a document that, more than any other single factor, shapes U.S. judgments about Soviet power. It is a respected work, but frequently Department of Energy 2 Department of the Treasury 3 / Federal ureau o InveBf sttgatto nM~aoa Oita, oltim Cenral 610rMn cow and guesses tration-and in some cases its pre- decessor-has based policy: ? In September, 1985, the Defense Intelligence Agency downgraded its estimate on the range of the Soviet Backfire bomber, in effect concluding that the plane is not a strategic weapon. That diluted the longstanding U.S. argument for taking the Backfire into account in any deal to limit long- range weapons. ? In April, the CIA ac- knowledged that it had regularly overestimated yields of Soviet nuclear- weapons tests. Charges that the Soviet Union was violating agreed limits on underground explosions became less credible. By all accounts, it is dif- ficult to assess Soviet strength. Intelligence ana- lysts often must project the future of programs even before the Kremlin makes the decisions that will shape them. Specialists generally give the CIA higher marks for dispas- sion than they give the DIA, which has consis- tently produced more hawkish readings. Casey has tried to insulate CIA analysts from public con- troversy. Under his direc- tion, the CIA has stopped publishing reports from its Defense Intelligence Agency National 1sewilly Army intelligence Bureau of Intelligence and Research 2 Office of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Intelligence 3 Office of Intelligence Support The Director of Central )ntelligence runs the CIA but also oversees the collection of intelligence by several other agencies ,SN&WR-Basic data: CIA the nation's Kremlin watchers have had to issue new calculations with embarrassing haste. One of the most controversial reversals came in 1983, when the CIA announced that Soviet mili- tary spending had grown by 2 per- cent yearly since 1977, instead of the 3 to 4 percent it had estimated a year earlier. For the same period, the growth rate of Moscow's weap- ons purchases was found to have been nearly flat-a far cry from the "massive buildup" claimed earlier. The shift infuriated some law- makers, who claimed they had been misled into supporting a de- fense budget based on faulty esti- mates of the threat. Other revisions have scaled back judgments on which the adminis- regional analysis offices. "Casey says, 'Let's keep research confiden- tial so people can't snipe at us,' " remarks Harvard Sovietologist Marshall Goldman. "It's unfortu- nate for the CIA. It's better to have their work debated in the open." Casey also has acted to reduce squabbling between the CIA and the DIA. In 1984, after competing analysts bickered over Soviet spend- ing, Casey approached Weinberger with a deal: Rather than focusing on spending, both agencies would count the numbers of weapons- ships, missiles, airplanes-the Sovi- ets were producing. With the most abstract guesswork reduced, future disagreement is less likely. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2 `d IL U.S.NEIvS v I ORLD REPORT 16 June 1986 11 1 11 11 it Moscow hsadquartsrs of the KGB. At home the agency secures the primacy of Communist leaders; abroad it collects Information Giant of the spy industry Moscow Soviet KGB chief Viktor Chebn- kov steers an intelligence appara- tus that dwarfs William Casey's CIA in size, scope of duties and influence on national policies. Chebnkov's sweeping powers are mandated by the KGB's Russian title: Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Be- zopasnosti. the Committee for State Security. To fulfill its mission- safeguarding Communist Party rule of the U.S.S.R.-the KGB peers into every corner of Soviet society while gathering foreign intelligence. If copied in the U.S., the KGB would embrace the CIA, the FBI, Secret Service, Coast Guard, Bor- der Patrol, National Security Agen- cy and Immigration and Natural- ization Service-plus many divi- sions of elite troops. From Soviet defectors comes this profile of the KGB: The agency's 90,000 career offi- .ers are supported by 150.000 technical and clerical workers. Based in Moscow, the agency has hranches in all 15 Soviet republics. Its annual budget is between S6 and 512 billion. Some 10,000 agents are involved in foreign operations, 2,500 of them abroad. About 500 are believed to be in the U.S., most under cover as diplomats at the Soviet Embassy in Washington, D.C.: at the Soviet mission to the United Nations in New York City, and among Soviet employes of the U.N. itself. In the U.S.S.R., virtually all im- portant organizations are infiltrat- '1 11 11 If If BE as so its ii ed by the KGB's First Depart- ment, which monitors personnel activities, or by its Second Depart- ment, charged with internal secun- ty. Agents sift through personnel records and watch for suspicious actions by workers. Grim welcome An elite, 250,000-man uniformed KGB military force patrols bor- ders. Larger than the U.S. Marine Corps, the force is equipped with patrol boats, tanks, helicopters, ar- mored vehicles and dogs trained to hunt human quarry. Steely-eyed KGB troops manning passport- control booths are the grim greet- ing for foreigners. Secret-police power peaked un- der dictator Joseph Stalin. when the dreaded late-night knock at the door signaled arrest and possible execution by the KGB's predeces- sor, the NKVD. While held in closer check by the politicians to- day, the KGB still plays a power- ful role in shaping Soviet policies. Chebrikov is a full member of the ruling Politburo. Both he and So% i- et leader Mikhail Gorbachev are proteges of the late Yuri Andro- pov. who headed the KGB before assuming Kremlin leadership. While KGB tactics are less bru- tal than under Stalin. fear of the secret police still pervades Soviet society. It is a fear Soviet leaders count on to guarantee order and security, as much a part of the sys- tem as the Politburo itself. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/11: CIA-RDP90-00845R000201190003-2