FOREIGN POLICY OPTIONS: TERRORISM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00845R000100480001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 12, 1981
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

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Foreign policy options: terrorism
WoMrRepori
A review of world political, economic
and strategic affairs
Panama 1981 ...
Terrorism: US ethnic support ...
The West: a Soviet analysis ...
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3
Warsaw pact tensions
Bookshelf
Argentina: impossible mission
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4
Lambert's Worldwide Government Directory
... 8
Moscow's policy philosopher ...
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5
Special Brief No 79 The Propaganda War
... 8
Foreign policy options : terrorism
According to President Reagan, international terrorism is
the priority concern of his administration and he aims to
make the international community aware of its obliga-
tions and ultimate mutual benefit in curbing it.
The attempts to assassinate the Pope and President
Reagan have only served to dramatise in a horrible way
the growing international sickness which attacks the fun-
damental basis of civilised human behaviour.
Terrorism has been spreading because, among other
reasons, woolly liberal thinking is already too ready to
find mitigating excuses for politically motivated violence
thus giving it a pseudo-justification and semi-respecta-
bility.
Here in Britain we are dealing with a terrorism which
seeks to break up the United Kingdom and make one
million Anglo-Irish 'foreigners' in their own country by
forcing them into a united Ireland against their will.
There are serious international implications in what is
happening. As the Pope said, after begging the IRA 'on
my knees' to turn away from violence:
Let no one concerned with Ireland have any illusions about
the nature and the menace of political violence. The ideo-
logy and the methods of violence have become an inter-
national problem of the utmost gravity. The longer the vio-
lence continues in Ireland the more the danger will grow
that this beloved land could become yet another theatre
for international terrorism. To all who bear political respon-
sibility for the affairs of Ireland, I want to speak with the
same urgency and intensity with which I have spoken to
the men of violence. Do not cause, or condone, or tolerate,
conditions which give excuse, or pretext, to men of violence.
For those who resort to violence always claim that only
violence brings about change. They claim that political
action cannot achieve justice. You, politicians, must prove
them to be wrong. You must show that there is a peace-
ful, political way to justice. You must show that peace
achieves the works of justice, and violence does not. I
urge you who are called to the noble vocation of politics
to have the courage to face up to your responsibility, to
be leaders in the cause of peace, reconciliation and justice.
If politicians do not decide and act for just change, then
the field is left open to the men of violence. Violence
thrives best when there is political vacuum and a refusal
of political movement.
What has become known, somewhat contentiously, as
the 'politics of suicide' has projected the 'Irish Question'
on to the international stage with up to 50 television
teams covering the events surrounding the self-inflicted
death of a convicted terrorist. The partisan intervention
of the former Attorney General of the United States, Mr.
Ramsay Clark, being one of the most bizarre and dis-
graceful episodes in an already dangerous situation.
Even the White House has been induced to express its
'concern' over the self-inflicted deaths of four convicted
terrorists, the second of whom was believed to have killed
some 20 'enemies of the Republican Movement', most of
them Irishmen.
Britain's American friends find themselves in an awk-
ward and embarrassing dilemma. On the one 'hand they
do not wish to criticise a friendly democracy yet on the
other they cannot ignore the considerable influence of
the American Irish and the historical fact that the United
States was born in armed revolution against the British
Crown; factors which are not appreciated in Britain.
Danger and dilemma
The parallel is the Palestine Liberation Organisation
(PLO) which is what attracts sympathy from the Euro-
pean powers, Britain included, because of current econo-
mic interests and the absence of any significant 'Jewish
lobby' such as exists in the United States. The PLO, like
the IRA, claims to represent a subjugated peoples and
both use terrorist/freedom fighters just as both threaten
political stability. The IRA could do to Eire what the
PLO has done to Lebanon.
Be he a 'lone nut' or an organised 'fanatic', the terrorist
poses a growing threat to the modern world.
The Pope said: 'The ideology and the methods of vio-
lence have become an international problem of the utmost
gravity.' There is no evidence that the ideology will re-
main conveniently absent from the United States, indeed
there are significant signs to the contrary. The July 1980
issue of Intelligence Digest World Report contained the
following passage:
We have for some considerable time now, warned about
the politicising of the Mexicans within the US and the
claims for 'lost and stolen' Mexican lands, so you will
not be unduly surprised to learn that a Washington DC
school board official has asked that one of the American-
held hostages in Iran be released because he is a 'Chicano'
and that: 'Chicanos are Mexicans who have lived under
the yoke of US imperial aggression and occupation since
the land was stolen from Mexico in 1836 and 1846. For
200 years the Latin American countries have experienced
the same kind of US domination and control that Iran ex-
perienced between 1953 and 1979. As fellow victims of US
greed and racism, Iran and the Latino community must
learn more about one another and stand together.'
In Special Brief No 75, Flash points of the World. we
of course covered Ireland but we also showed how Mexico
could claim Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California,
Nevada, Utah together with part of Wyoming, Colorado.
Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle. We then com-
mented:
There are some eight to 10 million illegal immigrants with-
in the US (estimates vary), most of them Mexican. and the
President of Mexico has already indicated that the 'illegals'
must be treated 'properly'. The Mexicans are deeply aware
of the cultural heritage and of what the 'Europeans' (Ameri-
cans and Spanish) have done to them. With the growth of
Mexican oil-power and a changing relationship with the
formerly, but not any more, all-powerful United States,
the lines on the map will assume a political importance un-
dreamed of by most Americans today.
If it is established that the United Kingdom can be
fragmented through the 'return' of Northern Ireland to
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Intelligence Digest World Report , Jun, l4sl
pean members. As background it is necessary to give
some facts which have never been revealed before.
When Soviet forces invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968 it
was with the participation of East German, Polish, Hun-
garian and Bulgarian troops. The conduct of these satel-
lite forces was closely studied by the Russian commanders
and far-reaching conclusions were drawn. The most im-
portant of these was that the non-Soviet forces of the
Warsaw Pact could not have been relied upon had the
Czechs offered armed resistance. This has a direct bearing
today regarding the decision whether to take military
action or not against Poland. But other questions arose
as well. Principal among these was whether the satellite
armies could be trusted with weaponry as advanced as
that used by the Soviet forces themselves.
In 1969 a Warsaw Pact Technical Council was accord-
ingly established to decide when and what advanced
equipment could be entrusted to the satellite forces. There
is no permanent rule followed by the Technical Council
but the effect has been that since then the Soviet Union
has not provided its East European allies with the most
modern equipment. There is normally a delay of four to
five years before, for example, the Poles, East Germans
and Czechoslovakians receive the standard of equipment
which had been used by the Soviet forces, and by this
time the Soviet forces have already moved on to the
more advanced equipment.
From this an important conclusion could be drawn in
respect of the Nato-Warsaw Pact balance.
Moscow's doubts
Nato's assessment has been that Moscow clearly
doubted that political reliability of the East European
forces in a confrontation with the West, and that the
willingness of these forces to carry out tasks would be
influenced by factors beyond Soviet control. From this
it followed that the Soviet intention was to use the East
European forces primarily in a supportive role, such as
securing rear areas or on purely garrison duties. There
were, indeed, indications that the satellite forces would be
restricted to peripheral areas in the event of a really
serious confrontation. Remarkably, this applies as much
to the East Germans as to the Poles.
However, this policy was causing increasing resentment
among the East European military commanders and even
more so among some of the satellite political leaders. Fif-
teen months ago, therefore, at a meeting of the Warsaw
Pact Political Consultative Committee, presided over by
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Brezhnev personally, it was decided to study the problem
afresh. This time the East European leaders were to have
a bigger say in the Technical Council which was to under-
take the new study.
What the study was all about, in essence, was whether
the East European leaders could convince the Soviet mili-
tary and political leaders that their forces would, in a
show-down, be absolutely reliable. Unfortunately for
them, the study had hardly started when the first signs
appeared of a crisis in Poland.
Inevitably, this has virtually blocked all progress in the
fresh assessment. When, even if, any progress will be
made must now be in doubt. However, one of the sub-
jects that was to be considered was the relative combat
readiness of Nato and Warsaw Pact forces.
Nato's equipment
Numerous papers on different aspects of this subject
were prepared, one of which was about the effects of
the non-standardisation of Nato's equipment. This is so
far the only one of these studies about which some in-
formation has become available. It finds, in summary,
that the interrelation between the different national com-
ponents of Nato's forces is totally 'irrational', thus con-
siderably damaging Nato's collective combat capability.
The Soviet author of the study concludes that if Nato
could achieve complete standardisation its combat capa-
bility would increase by between 30 and 50%. The lack
of standardisation, he finds, is for Nato a crippling handi-
cap and possibly a fatal weakness. As an example of
what is described as a chaotic situation the paper points
out that Nato ground forces in central Europe have seven
different types of basic combat tanks, eight types of
armoured personnel carriers and a variety of 22 types of
anti-tank weapons. In addition, it further points out,
Nato's different national air forces fly 23 types of air-
craft. 'As for the Nato countries' navies, they are equip-
ped with 36 types of shipborne radar', it adds for good
measure.
Also: `The inadequate compatibility of the correspond-
ing national systems has an adverse effect on the com-
munication and control system of the bloc's armed
forces.' However, it warns that if Nato should ever achieve
standardisation it would have a military advantage over
the Soviet constituent of the Warsaw Pact forces. This
seems to be a recommendation that Moscow's satellite
forces would have to be given more modern equipment
and a more integrated role in the event of Nato achieving
standardisation.
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INTELLIGENCE DIGEST
A REVIEW OF WORLD AFFAIRS
telligence pointers
the U.K. inflation is soaring at a rate
about 10 per cent. Figures to the
ntrary are misleading. The money
per cent and 30 per cent. Inflation
not be stopped except by reducing
igle political party. Only a national
vernment could do it.
The basis of the problem is there-
re constitutional rather than purely
e German Elections
ancellor Brandt's decisive victory in
constitutional seal on to a dangerous
At the time of going to press it is
doubtedly made a big contribution
the SPD/FDP success was the fact
at the CDU/CSU opposition to
w much real substance it ever had.
West German policy is going to
ve two objectives:
1. To dominate the Common
arket.
2. To build up a special political
lationship with the Soviet Union and
move towards a special military
If no agreement about the fishing
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tier independence by withdrawing from
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Israeli air strike against Libya.
relationship.
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