EXTRACTS FROM THE CIA PUBLICATION, A SYNTHESIS OF THE VIETNAM SITUATION: AN ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110015-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2003
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: May 23, 1967
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Release 2003/08/18 : CIA-RDP90-006108000200110015-8
Extracts from the CIA Publication,
"A Synthesis of The Vietnam Situation: An Analysis and Estimate'"
dated 23 May 1967
ILLE
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!ed b
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Extracts from the CIA publication HAS n, 'The Analysis and Estimate"' dated 2.3 Ma
196
'sis of Viat*,~ Situation:
7;
y
Section II. Paras. B. 5, B. 6, B. 7, and B. 8I
Pages 2 and 3:
An 25X
5? EatltTiaeiri~ trld oi~o, St;ueeul-a anel
in South Vietnam is a difficult intelligen e.feetivoaeas e~' ehe enet-;~y #aree
y methodo-
logical proble,~ s. It is difficult to acquc ethard da ali~ated b
new ~ a timely fashion.
Also, when kinds of data. information become availab~
to relate the new data to the previous figures based on a different break-
down of data. There is, for example the inevitable
o
need to apply ~ tension between the
stringent criteria of confir
tend to produce ir.;nerentl low matiOn and acceptability (vr;2ich
y ` "assessments," as do the assessments for
real estate taxation) with the need for Praisals ,
salesman makes) which indicate what allied forces lactual'Se-,,-.a real facing
Over tpast year, our -methodology / Y be facing.
Over the hlz . y and data base have improved
/ Further refineme 25X
is still
particularly ac
oee but some pr?bl
i
i
sJ
qu
e;r_s,
s
tion roblem
t
in
insoluble p g meliness are
The Con
? munisL~s have continued to expand their -,
despite the increasing effectiveness ._--_ain force units
o of allied " '
goons, Viet Cong-~iort,i Vietnam main for s earch-and-destroy" oper-
in the period since Januar 1906 _ ces have expanded by 36 percent
level may be even higher y - from 85,'000 to L1-5, 000. The present
since all the evidence on recent infiltrations
and recruitment is not yet in.
7. Part of this expansion of main force units has been at the .lower level Viet Cong formations. expense of
of l lea elements To accelerate the exp
b i were up-graded, an ion, a number
military g, causing a drain or. Viet Cong para-
formations anc~ on the so-called "political i^=
forces remaiP_ sizeable, -~rastructure." These
however,-- Probably larger i fact
Order of battle figures indicate. L n fact than current
It is difficult to compute the full strength
of the paramilitary, a support
' combat and political eler_-me
precision. Latest order of Oj1 1 ntS Wi th any real
113, 000, holdings peg the irre;ula~ at
but recent studies indicate ` forces
200, 000. The strength of the Support that to
now cirri well be close to
be several times greater. L y,? ed at 2S, 000, ma
- In short, the overall strength of t t y
apparatus in Southo Vietnam, currently listed as 292000, may y be e in the thent
million range. e halr""-
half-
8. This is not to suavest that the total
increased dramatically in recent CO" maniac force structure has
i r t months. Instead, ?..ents in rrethodologf ~ an accumulation o and data now indicates * L have
long been facing a total that the t:
?^ L.
nhave
O a_ organized op
p
b ~~tion far larder *
than accepted
accepted
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25X1
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official figures have indicated. An appreciation of the probable true size
of this organized opposition will make possible far more valid arid'
nd useful
interpretations of future input and loss statistics.
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/08/18 : CIA-RDP90-00610ROff200110h15-5