EXTRACTS FROM THE CIA PUBLICATION, 'AN ANALYSIS OF THE VIETNAMESE COMMUNISTS STRENGTHS, CAPABILITIES AND WILL TO PERSIST'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00610R000200110011-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2003
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: August 26, 1966
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/18 : CIA-RDP90-0061OR000200110011-2
Ec'acts from the CIA Publication,
"An Analysis of the Vietnamese Com pig-,iSts Stren hs,
Capabilities and Will to Persist"
dated 26 August 1966
f ILL
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{ tracts fro the CL Publication rl f"1 Anai~'Sjs of the 7ie~II3 ?se
CC:U11ists Strenghs , Capabilities, and '6,1
Hill to ?ersiSti rr
20 Augus;, 1900, Section II, Para. 4, Page 2. dated
J
4. This has required a drastic increase
meat. On a population base o. arOt:.~d ?}5 co ii f iS inveS
g a c_1?_; r:or` h Vie L t
Su: oor Jn i --a , ~_ _s;~ now is
ii r est abll?CW? Of :t 1'.l'. St i:33 nn,'1
1900 ..a 0 : ,,,as maintaining ~ ';CVv -en. By r, d-
-~
., a force o a t le=st
to i^l.','?n-lV in the South. T t
i t We L! L
b f end eS by Lea ~.=1S ~? 5'~""e -~i ? rise to ,0 ~v'~
St-Orl! 5, 00'3 Jy md-~ 967. - .
vS ~ CCi_enOf~ 19d P. Lotah? and
~; ' O to : Ustain
i" 0gl'-) O_JII
,=et;=3..^ i :gin
mobilization and had S CC r~J .t ~?
r~r tiar-r?lg"? i'J,0'w _abJr?=3 t0 '
ec:Dnczy '-as been
its
e s ,
tea- system disrupted c t^ !?3
c Lt.- -j p dV?; Se1y
to ?j?CtZd. ?- ~ C ?= SC a 1 Z i' Of its
faci ? ate dis t~
SOLaetna_~ t : ? , cj 0f
has outh to V :etna develop Lhe external suoo .es they now require, Hanoi
---Ugd Laos in rheand aintai to ? a or to road and trail network
lac oJ. continue interdiction and harassment.
Section II, Para. 5, Pages 2 and 3:
.
5. In Souv ` ie ~.I'i r? he n^ m n 1 rstructure ri a c~ includes ' a=,ed force f d ? 1 _1 SUr j? y
to D. arc' ^:d P^ 1
-~ a ;On Lo Z n /~
V ~ , 000 1?i.Jl ?vh Vietnamese t airo ?t _`Jti") ` ~,
This L-vOvS r-Kd'" L entione
figure includes udes Vie-,, Can` ,r,?j J d.
Cadre and combat- r C7S, 70_l~;C?
suPpor- elemen-
a
..:. V S t~- C':.;:,-M:- S L i t r e- t~
"L._c:: S .
^cr carried a. a:.oL~-,d 110 0-0
Clic t the e e i may recu re as~lc ue','ar,~ re'v',s_0n.
To To '` e _? LL Ca ion Of their i Sl rge ? ce 7?'_~i, the n i Sl,S
by a O a a.:oLln
i~'i`O,'vlC "t0^'CerS S1_ 1--re`d
The
1 le C~+:".: ,u-niJ LS have also
COC pC:ient ^a r_ i probably e ?r0 _a arG~__ 71'x, 000
t+.- = ?G7? e in
1 ? t i ganiza',.. jo the 1:-Tat- ,'.
PLiberation of South Vie r ~. uOna1 ;~rOnu or
tnam. This total a_ a- ^a us
a
conLr01;d, f,,~-, ~ 1 = :.:s ~ b
may le t+x CSC and su ~ ed, i s
L 1 ": resoumces within South
x Arno Fund 2~ v00 a membe" any?
20,C~O e,S O'rtLe t ..y~J l~ ?C 17,t. J a:
C0"-- u.r.1- S -U sU forces. youth ' {_ c.t ~~ - _ e = ^' ;: O be e i _ ^ s e
ta1a already Cited. If Our
+ eg' apr Fees to o S-
Ci e,e ra i Cult L e d ev sib , sv- Z.,.C ^
also require
o- j izat o z br R~Ye~'
~e (378 8~ aGl [to9ft -Ann 4IIR000200;ri-n 1-1
2
s
-
pprove a -
d,,e
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B,
_ - v..-t1
c t__s inadequate. to Accordi g t o S-- L -
n_y~ A?_ 1 11 ~~ 0 =.a t'_On htS Cpe^c L , -
_O_d Ll L r, 19-0 to Wee- rr ! C : J' -1 i.CreaS
o t V recu 1
e conference r2_ Orte'~ t?^-M- t` V ~5 `/p ( du r? n~ r i r S?` t it
the v. v (e a ost no cadre O r''t ing
UrC:~ Se of goods is _=oS~ 1 y done t _: Cl_~?CGS
^-rou i r ?
m rr+--ad it r?CG.-
ended strenuous recruitir.- e - "-
r- O 11'Oi ~t.J .
xr Tu2_1 analysis ?
~? ? /, of t,u success of L, nis effo must await
-1 t L.here is , read r ;~xag e to ; p~ v ' =at le
v%aivvi that it, .^_v.s':^.ee e; Ilya _..
'?. l ~.eSs.ill ? nod' e?~.a...~ le the r^C.-1 cc---, V ~. i`"
.J. , -... i
jc rcvi C , h ca borders iiie C eat _l _ os a =f' O::- Cho 10 _3 C_ ... .
Sp c Loo
1,
t,0 nc no h, repo c'',
,Cd t -. J-,i
rt e a -y Z ,,. in -Ola'^J?-i- in i,,-e - .,-? en, ~^ .~O~ i, ='
d 7..; ,.v ~aC; .. ...~:...~.'.C_..~..1~
J, n ing / e _ _n g i ,:- ur Dc_- a:: ea s 9 new agents ',r o ' a(!
i n. t e illg rice ortt,s .
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B. i;ta^e~ica . Strer~ , ?
s,
c oi O and
zi i rOrS
In the V i Cong Sa iSOn-C'Olor
the Saigon ;.e1 za s n area -= sl: _ ~? h
Sl;2C' 1 ZOne _-' ch Com-orise
_II a. its 1 1 i.r. 1 .~
-P-,Om t e G7Ocu -en t?.r- evidence t h t. by l o 1 1:4 S C ~0- i u 11 control led Ox ~:i "_'T? J- ~-1~11weP.ra1 the C_~ 'OS so ...e 0 '^,CO~10 TiC'~
by the C: ` .ul1i s ~s :SOU? t .a
v
O
;a-?9o7 =bOr ex-
assets o _ a C:=a
- V: lc Z'J^? J' SL G " = _1 vi:?
2-5 i_l;.On .L? =.^aii 1,O J ) c Covers an are... `J r - e
J ? =e a r- ?tea ;.....? 7 ..e` '?~ -. ,:. :.
st
0 2 ?S V(c^1t rrSe'i?"al ::: 1 nol by Cadres ,,M/e not e j be con CJ^
4 4-
t, aCCOt;._i' o. ' onethe1e ` J
y o t bC CO e YCC
e COIJ avaiiab`e 5J_- asset s co ro ?C he i OJ 'O
e; it l. probably d4.4 G?- far $^j~er be ~r yort G^
to ccsv-:, or to
::wao nOr a a - be ra~o: ~i
---,Car to
O-J e-,-e ?.0? l ,5 Or L O= r' S ` _ SC (ft
d - g ~ L, ve y C? ,Ude
r,Cr t J r
C:e
As tr rr.'.1'?1 ,t, t,=% rt assets
CS:.?j1 _Jj 1 G :O _' i X01 i op ,C~ ~J
~^
A ill coal l It , / ose - in g -a-rid +Or~` _ `her rti f
"~ -/) in ;e Stropo1 ' i areas 3~ z ~.._i _~? .a T rr
c'--,., i -_iST,S.
~v^~_ S
Party ??
T~ r J
1~ t a Youth y
4,033 Liber~t. ,G-cud Leyte-s
6, ~ t 3 L1C?_C ~i C~ a ~ S '`:530C;a G^ : . 2
Libe a
?---~ r Ulan sic,-,yn
22, 083vm,+
e ti -S
s a G'-'
S t = = t ed t0 be Gti e
1 to about Ct ^ G in tf _ _',C of ^o
zri i 1 r o COt'ril?? i li_i to _ U
ate., is ncluded
a reg _ % Url ts , we
unsp c fo ilia platoon,s, totaI ,- t of ?03 en
in al, l,2ajt GAT ts Oi Vi= le,-.:, ran' et E~~M_.~ and
?~_G
7rO;~ab~ J ~S. O' Lam:-
Ji obab z c l so -e z:1, OS? e=a O; t i:~ ~. ? l- '_ f ? n l f
Oz,
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hppena'x A, Sec ion I, Paras C-1 and.- C-2
C C.
____ VC/NVA
1. Forces
The composition and Size of the Communist force
in South Vietnam has changed considerably since 1964. The
total enemy strength has grown from r
~ "r apooximately 127, 000 i
t in
96~ to 269,000 by ani' d-19-56 and we
1reach 310,000 by Juno 1967. es i ?.:. _e tnat i~ may
,7. ~+ea_rl' 37, 000 regular -_h
iet: e
t_.rO00S have ]OineC; enemy .-d,.,~`S in South
Vietnam since mid-1965. The continued infiltr= is of
`ork h Vietnamese troops has been -"-he primary source ^
^ y
creased Communist troop s-
trength in ._ South ! 1~_et n--M. _ l-
and futUre eS t The com-
parative imat_ed grO;,i to in ene-,L : forces is
illustrated iri Table IV-5 ?beloCa:
Table IV-5
South Vietnam. Dsti:. am-mod N J.V
a/
C Forc
e s
b 9o.
Decei, er l - yid-1967
(In thousand
)
s
196-* 1965 1'96
N
th
December June
6* 1966 1967
or
Vietnam --- 11.0 38
VC Main Force
.0 50. C
7.5 . 0
34.0 59.0 63
Irre
l
**
.0 65.0 65.0
gu
ars
93.0 110.0. 110
.0 110.0 110
0
Political Cadre,
Combat Support --- 57.0 58
.
.0 60.0 60.0
Total Enemy 127.0 237.0 269
.0 295.0 310.0
End c year strengths :i th e ?:cepn o o_ ne 9o
**These are the _9,66.
e currently accepted irregular as indicated in the Summary Disc ussion- h - a
t ese reJ are
being re-examined and may be subject to upw-ard Ye;,=sion.
2. Deployment
Current Nort Vietnamese troop strength is
primarily centered in iI Corps area, and to a much lesser
extent in I and III Corps area. r'
V:1 t r o ^'J .7S a - Y e .~:no ;v n t i' of
L o be in Iv Corps. `.1'C main force
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Strength is heavily concentrated in III and IV areas and
to a lesser extent in II and I ro
..,Yps areas. A more detailed
de;;loyment is shO~;n in Table IV-6 below:
Table I T-6
South Vietnam: Es i:a"eci Streng - Co- on ,,
Deoo~-