CUBA EYING LATIN 'TET,' U.S. SAYS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000403960017-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 22, 2010
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: May 14, 1984
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

OSTAT
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/22 : CIA-RDP90-00552R000403960017-3
ARTICLE
ON PAGE
Cuba Eying
Latin `Tet,'
U.S. Says
Autumn Offensive
Might Be Factor in
Presidential Race
By Don Oberdorfer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Cuba has decided to roughly dou-
ble the guerrilla striking force in El
Salvador in hopes of mounting a
"Tet-like" offensive there during the
U.S. presidential race this fall, White
House national security affairs ad
viser Robert C. McFarlane charged
yesterday. `
Even the prospect of such an of-
fensive at a crucial point this fall has
political significance here. In the
past several weeks, the Reagan ad-
ministration has been discussing a'
possible fall offensive in El Salvador
in confidential. congressional brief-
ings supporting its program of nil-
itary and economic aid to that coun-
try. An actual offensive, including
the possibility of U.S. military in-
volvement or retaliation, could be an
unpredictable factor in the presiden-
tial race.
McFarlane, appearing on "Meet
the Press" (NBC, WRC), declined to
provide details to back up his charge
except to say that it is based on "ev-
idence that accumulated in the past
six weeks" and that "our community
of intelligence experts finds it very
credible."
A senior administration official,
who asked not to be quoted by
name, said reports reaching Wash-
ington early last month indicated
that Cuban President Fidel Castro
decided to increase greatly the level
of recruiting, supply and advice to
the anti-government guerrillas in El
Salvador, currently estimated at
10,000 to 12,000.
WASHINGTON POST
14 May 1984
? Another official who is familiar
with the intelligence said some re-
ports suggested that larger numbers
of Salvadoran guerrillas are under-
going training in Cuba and Nicara-
gua. It is "too early to tell" whether a
large-scale increase in guerrilla forces
and their effectiveness can be carried
out, but "there are pretty good in-
dications that this is the game plan,"
the official said.
The number of leftist guerrillas in
El Salvador was estimated at about
2,000 in 1980, on the eve of the Rea-
gan administration's assumption ,of
power. By May, 1983, the official
U.S. estimate published by the State
Department had grown to 4,000 to
6,000 full-time guerrillas plus 5,000
to 10,000 "part-time activists."
Last January, the Defense De-
partment began using the figures
8,000 to 9,000 for the full-time guer-
rilla force in El Salvador. In Febru-
ary the State Department said "com-
bat-equipped" guerrilla personnel
had risen to 9,000 to 11,000.
In recent weeks, the figure of
10,000 to 12,000 full-time guerrillas
67,000 communist troops launched simulta-
neous surprise attacks against nearly every
city and provincial capital, in the face of 1.1
million U.S. and South Vietnamese defenders.
"What we are talking about is an offensive
with an enormous psychological impact, one
that could turn the course of the war," an of-
ficial said.
The pattern of warfare in El Salvador has
been for greater guerrilla activity and offen-
sives in the late fall and winter months, ap-
parently due to more favorable weather.
Several officials said the available evidence
points to larger battles this year in September
and October, which would be earlier than usu-
al. Officials said they assume that the inten-
tion on the communist sid? is to bring the mil-
itary situation in El Salvador to a head while
the presidential campaign in the United States
places the Reagan administration in a difficult
and vulnerable position.
has been used. It is this number that is ex-
pected to be roughly doubled, along with an
upgrading of weapons and equipment, in the
months ahead, an administration official said
yesterday.
On the government side, the Salvadoran
army has risen from 16,000 men in 1980 to
about 39,000 full-time troops this year, ac-
cording to State Department figures. McFar-
lane said on the television program that "we
believe honestly that the only way the Salva-
doran government is going to be able to deal
with [an offensive] is to prepare the army in
terms of training and equipment and so forth
to be able to preempt it."
No Cuban combat forces are believed to be
in El Salvador, but unspecified numbers of
Cuban military advisers are thought to be on
the scene, according to an administration of-
ficial. Two Cuban generals reportedly are in
Nicaragua, one of whom is said to assist the
Salvadoran insurgency full time, the official
added.
Government sources said that in referring
to a possible "Tet-like" offensive in El Sal-
vador, the term used in briefings for members
of Congress, they did not mean to forecast
military action on the scale of the 1968 offen-
sive in South Vietnam, when an estimated
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/22 : CIA-RDP90-00552R000403960017-3