MOROCCO: STABLE FOR NOW, BUT...

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000302550002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 8, 1980
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/22 : CIA-RDP90-00552R000302550002-6
ARTICLE APPEARED
O': PAGE /tA .
By Stanley Karnow
`.LARR AKESH, MOROCCO - Flank-
ing the gateway to the Mediterra-
nean, this North African kingdom is
potentially crucial to American stra-
tegic interests in. southern;Europe
and the Middle' East:. A major ques-
tion at "tne moment,' however, is
whether its stability can:be. pre:
served.
King Hassan U, who has ruled here::
for nearly two decades, is a moderate'
compared to most other Arab leaders:,
Among.other things, he has-worked
behind the scenes to encourage-fhe'.
rapprochement between.` Egypt and-'
Israel. For internal reasons-.:though,'
Morocco's schools have been pro;,-
He narrowly survived i.couple-of Because be, relies..od- the war to ducing thousands of graduates who.,
attempted military coups back in the mobilize domestic 'support, Hassan cannot find jobs because economic.-
early 1970s. Clever and distrustful, cannot dare make concessions to his growth is lagging behind education.
enemies. At the same time, however; Many of these youths are radicals, he governs by. .manipulating the!, he may not be able to bear the bur' 1: and their agitation could trigger_-ly -dispensing patronage or cracking . den over a long period. So he Is ( ferment in the abysmal shantytowns,
down on dissidents. A Central trapped' ina situation that both sus-, that plague every Moroccan city.
'Intelli ence Agency
tains and weakens him. Awareof the risks inherent in this,
s~q__,r_'y7_Tea_'k_,Wlast tall predicted that Judging from its past record, the social powderkeg, Hassan repeatedly.
a wou collapse
TRNT.MT army could be the biggest s? threat to promises improvements. But he has
Bll ?hat-roomy estima a apparentry .his rule. Sensitive to that threat, done little except to raise expects
mirrors an a ort by the CIA fo cover Hassan maintains a tight leash on his.' Lions that he is unable to fulfill,,and'.
iiseTf ~f[e5FTJvfiTgbeerT66ZTpt rifts- senior officers: Military units .in the '-that may augur trouble.
tic abblit t~~d s~dSttffii?5firati - "-~ Sahara, for instance; are required to Concerned by these threats to-
oug a is one e- communicate with each ' other -Morocco, the Carter administration',
maining Muslim monarchs, Hassan
through him. ' - recently agreed to sell Hassan, some
The Moroccan 6My suffereda seri- S250 million worth of milit
ary equip,
4iifers from the shah in several re- stets In contrast to the shah, who
ous defeat afew weeks ago because a- .ment - 'the implicit terms of the deal .
tut himself off from Iran's religious column under attack by " li
Fommunity. Hassan combines the 'guerrillas "call for help., -,-and turn his attention to the nat on 5,
,, :quest thtougli assan, whoevidently' But Hassan rejects any stringsaF-';
Unlike the shah; moreover, Hassan responded too slowly.' inched to the arms sale as he tolctm
'
cal parties
permits a half-dozen politi to f unction, tolerating their criticism
as long as they operate within his
essentially authoritarian system.-He.
PHILADELPHIA IN .DIRER
8 APRIL 1980
who are passionately nationalistic"
But hisshrewd maneuvers may not''
be sufficient to keep Morocco on an '.
`even keel. And. while it would be .. .
foolhardy to forecast `.an upheaval ; It is impossible to measure wheth ;
here, it would be irresponsible to:.er this fundamentalism representsa
ignore the dangers that may. lie.'
ahead. _ ~,
JThe conflict in the desert is milt
tarily unwinnable by either'-side.:
While it provides Hassan with a patri-
real force. But the other day, when I`
asked a group of sophisticated Moroc-
can businessmen to tell me the per-9
son they most admire, Iran's Ayatol--
lah Khomeini topped the list. 'Hassan.",
incidentally figured low on their list:..
that currently costs- Morocco about Perhaps the largest threat to Has.
Si.S million a day. Saudi Arabia foots san is the widening gulf between
aU 2U'.. lUaa Luc 171V1
vl.l,au i)UiJRla-
theless drains the> Moroccan econo-, tion, now 18 million, has. doubled
my, which also is'being hit' by soar-- over the past 20 years.
Western sources familiar w}th:.the in an interview. He simply cannot
Moroccan army suggest that its ? ju- seek a compromise with the Polisario,
mgr,officers are .becoming increas- I or its Algerian supporters :without
ingly frustrated with a., war they jeopardizing his regime
even .underwrites the Communists cannotwin and cannot afford' to lose Fundamentally, there is'virtually
mainly for cosmetic purposes. .
There i"5 no sign that [heir mood is nothing that the United States can do
Hassan's"strongest card"has been being 'translated into opposition to assure Hassan's stability. Besides,
his claim to the Western Sahara, against? Hassan,., but: such stirrings Americans are bum advisers to other';
formerly a Spanish possession-,,.The arealways difficult to detect countries. The: dilemma, though, is
war he is waging in that vast waste- -''The two coup attempts, against that Morocco is vital to U.S. interests
land against the so-called, Polisario ' Hassan in?197`t'and 1972-were staggd `.:.:John Waterbury, one of America'
Front serves to unify Moroccans, by his closest military subordinates foremost Mideast specialists, has
without the slightest advance in Fcd noted that Morocco always appears to
Lion, i ? beon the 'verge of an explosion that,]
. Despite his role as Morocco's reli- never occurs. That may be the case at
gious chief, a position written int~Y' present; and it could be that Hassan
the constitution, Hassan also might wilf'.survive `If 'not, the. alternative"
be threatened by Muslim fundaiue :could be disastrous:
=talists wo.contend that he has~vi`o-
- fated lalamie.teneta.::
. One. such cntic, ~.vdeiselain,Y
tine, = obliquelyaattacks Hassan- by
`as$erting=ihat only: a Koran ic stat
can resolve Morocco's class conflicts.
Yacine ha_ -b n' in and not nf. Iii I
STAT
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/22 : CIA-RDP90-00552R000302550002-6