REAGAN S CONTADORAN CATCH-22

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00552R000302490040-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: May 22, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/26: CIA-RDP90-00552R000302490040-1 STAT
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. . 22 May 1986
Reagan's Contadoran Catch-2T__
Charlotte Saikowski its neighbors. If Nicaragua signs the accord, the Penta-
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
Washk pton
President Reagan faces a dilemma over
his policy in Central America
- and his aides are deeply
divided on how to resolve it.
? If the United States sup-
ports a treaty being hammered
out by the so-called Contadora
countries, it will have to aban-
don efforts to help the Nicara-
guan "contra" rebels. The
treaty is tentatively scheduled
to be signed by the five Cen-
tral American countries on
June 6.
? If the US does not em-
brace the treaty - and hard-
liners within the Reagan ad-
ministration oppose such a
course - it will be viewed as
blocking a diplomatic solution
to the Central American con-
flict and prospects for con-
gressional approval of contra
aid will diminish. The House is
expected to vote on the aid
issue in early June.
At the moment Nicaragua
itself indicates that it will not
sign the accord being prepared by the
Contadora group (Venezuela, Colombia,
Panama, and Mexico). And it is not clear
how the agreement will resolve such
sticky issues as verification,
reduction of armies, and inter-
nal democratization.
But if the Sandinista gov-
ernment decides to back the
treaty, the US will be in a bind.
"The administration's lip ser-
vice to the Contadora process
is now costing them," says Pe-
ter Hakim, staff director of the
Inter-American Dialogue, a
private group that favors a
diplomatic settlement in the
region. "They had not ex-
pected that signing of the
agreement would occur at
about the same time as the aid
vote."
The internal dispute ex-
ploded this week as the Penta-
gon released a study stating
that a Contadora peace treaty
would not prevent the Sandin-
ista regime from cheating on
its provisions and continuing
to foment insurgencies against
gon says, the US in three years' time would have to
commit 100,000 men and up to $9 billion a year to
contain Nicaragua.
The State Department quickly stated that the report
was "an internal study" and had no standing as a US
document. A Senate Republican leader called it a "seri-
ous error in judgment." And the White House joined the
fray, minimizing the importance of the report and
denying there were differences within the administra-
tion on a peace agreement.
But many lawmakers and diplomatic observers see
the Pentagon study and the conflicting voices as unmis-
takable evidence that right-wing conservatives want to
thwart any diplomatic sdlution, desiring instead to
overthrow the Sandinista government. Democrats
charge that US special envoy Philip C. Habib is actively
supporting efforts to conclude a peace treaty but is
meeting resistance within the administration.
A hundred House Democrats have in fact sent a letter
to President Reagan urging him to support a Contadora
agreement that meets the "legitimate security consider-
ations" of the US and to start negotiations with Nicara-
gua in the Contadora context. One Republican, Jim Leach
of Iowa, also signed the letter.
Rep. Jim Slattery (D) of Kansas says that it remains to
be seen what emerges from the Contadora process but
that "the administration should be more forthcoming
regarding under what conditions it is willing to termi-
nate aid for the contras." While the US would not be a
signatory to the treaty, he notes, it could sign a protocol
that pledged adherence to the treaty.
Those who oppose aid for the contras argue that the
contras are not a credible force for bringing about
change in Nicaragua and that, instead of trying to
overthow the Sandinistas, the US should work to contain
Nicaragua. Rep. Lee Hamilton (D) of Indiana, chairman
of the House to Aence Committee- says that US-Nica-
raguan negotiations should focus ,
icaragua s commitment to stop "certain external a_nc_o-
nduct-
" and in return, we will permit the Sandinistas to
exist.
The administration, sensitive to charges that the
contras are ineffective and poorly led, is pressing for
reform of the United Nicaragua Opposition, the Miami-
based political arm of the contras. Negotiations over
such reform are under way.
Meanwhile, diplomatic observers are puzzled as to
why Nicaragua has not rushed. to back the Contadora
agreement, as such a move would put Reagan on the
defensive. It is speculated that the Sandinistas are dis-
trustful of the US, remembering 1984, when Nicaragua
signed a Contadora pact and the US pressed other Cen-
tral American nations into objecting to it.
In the opinion of some analysts, the hard-line Marx-
ists in the Nicaraguan leadership have no interest in
stopping the- conflict and being rid of the contras, who
serve as justification for the regime's authoritarian poli-
cies.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/07/26: CIA-RDP90-00552R000302490040-1