NATIONAL ESTIMATES OF HIGHER EDUCATION STATISTICS: 1987

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620013-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 2, 2013
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: December 1, 1987
• Content Type: MISC

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CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS
Early Estimates
December 1987
National Estimates of Higher. Education Statistics :1987
Contact: Susan Hill The Nation's higher education enrollment continues w hold steady even though the
(?.02) 357-6593 traditional college-age population of 18- t0 24-year-olds is still declining. Early Nation-
al Estimates data indicate that:
chine Krne
(2t12) 357-6361. ? The projected enrollment decline in higher education has not occurred. It is es-
timated that 12S million students attended college this fall.
? Degree awards at each level remained stable in academic year 1987, with the ex-
ception of associate degrees, which declined 4 percent from academic year 1986.
? Revenues and expendiatres increased 5 and 6 percent, respectively, in fiscal year
1987. Compared with these national averages, percent mtxeases were higher
among private 4-year institutions and lower among public 2-year institutions.
These findings come from the Early National Estimates sample of more than 600 in-
stitutions ofhighereducation, which were surveyed by telephone this fall. The data and
findings in this report are tarty ascimates and subject to change. Actual data for the en-
tire universe of institutions will be available in the fall of 1988. (See appendix for more
information.)
Enrollment
Based on the decline in the population of 18- to 24-year olds since 1981,1 CE~
projected in 1982 that college enrollment would decline slightly ~ 1982 to 1987.
Some institutions have been responding to the expected decline in the number of students
by targeting courses toward part-time students and women and by actively marketing and
recruiting students to maintain enrollment.
ate 19$7~ariy-Natonal~:stimates_surv_ey_-indicates-thattheexpected-decline~in-higher~
education-enrollment-did~noc-occur. In fact, the estimated number of students enrolled
flue fall ui the Nation's colleges and universities was 12.5 millionYremaining_at_an_all-
timehigh level. Women were 53-per~cettt-of-allTcollege_st denu~ts-in-fall-1-987; and-part
time-students-accounted?for 42_percent of tote-total-(derive~i'from tattle 1)~
Enrollment estimates are shown in table 1 for fall 1987 and fall 1986 by various
categories. Although the estimates for 1987 are higher in most cases than those for 1986,
the differences are not statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. T'here-
fore,enrollment is-most-accurately-characterized-as-statile overall
PostsecondaryEduca- IUS.I)ep.rtmmtofCannneece,Boiematd-eeemat.Seboai-EnrofLnent-~ociatordEc+a~anicClnac?
tiorl Statistics Division wi:tia of St~deArs, Glnrmt Plopulation Iteparts, Sala P?20,1980 a 1986.
~tJS Depsruman of Eduction, IQati~oal t7eaoer for Edontion Sucstia,lDrojeetiont oj6drootioR Statis-
tics to 1990-91, Volome 1.1982. p. 39.
U.S. Departmerrt of Education
Office of Educational Research and Improvement CS 88-203
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lrbla 1.--$stientea of enrollment in Lnstitutlons of higher education, M attendance status, br?aex, and M attendance Le~ial of student, and by control
and level of institutions tall 1986 and 1987
(In thousands)
Control and Lsvel Total
of institution (estimate)
Pull-time
(estimate)
Part-time
(estimate)
Men
(estimate)
Momen
(estimate)
Undergraduate
(estimate)
Postbaccalauraate
(estlmata)
Total, 1987 12,544 7,219 5,325 5,881 6,663 10,895 1,649
Total, 1986 12,398 7,148 5,249 3,840 6,537 10,724 1,674
Percent change* 1 1 1 1 2 2 -1
Control
Publio
1987 9,706 5,206 4,500 4,468 5,238 8,706 1.001
1986 9,600 S,1SS 4,446 4,437 5,144 8,577 1,024
Percent changaw 1 1 1 -- 2 2 -2
Private
1987 2,838 2,013 823 1,413 1,423 2,190 648
1986 2,797 1,99} 804 1,383 1.414 2,147 650
Percent changaw 1 1 3 2 1 2 --
Level
?-year
1987 7,816 3,461 2,335 3,802 4,013 6,167 1,649
1986 7,754 3,419 2,335 3,805 3,949 6,080 1,674
Percent changew 1 1 1 -- 2 1 -1 .
2-year
1987 4,728 1,759 2,970 2,078 2,650 4,728
1986 4.644 1,730 2,914 2,035 2,609 4,64?
Percent changew 2 2 2 2 2 2
Selected control/lavelawe
Public 4-year '
1987 5,268 3,671 1,596 2,546 2,722 4,267 1,001
1986 5,254 3,658 1,596 2,568 2,686 ?,231 1,024
Percent change* -- -- -- -1 1 1 -2
Private 4-year
1987 2,548 1,789 759 1,257 1,291 1,900 648
1986 2,499 1,761 738 1,237 1,262 1,849 650
Percent changaw 2 2 3 2 2 3 --
Public 2-year
1987 1,439 1,535 2,904 1,922 2,516 4,439 0
1986 4,346 1,497 2,849 1,868 2,437 4,346 0
Percent changew 2 3 2 2 2 2 --
--Lean than O.S percent. ?
wNone of the percent changes era statistically different from zero at the 95 percent confidence level. Percent changes wze calculated on actual, not
rounded, values.
wwData for private 2-year institutions era not shown separately because the number of institutions sampled vas small and the standard errors large.
NOTE: DctaLla may not add to totals because of rounding.
Poatbaccalaureate includes graduate and first-professional enrollment.
The 95 percent confidence intervals, expressed as ? percent of the total estlmates, are ? 1.7 percent for fall 1987 and ? 1.0 percent for fall 1988.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Sample Survey of Early
National Estimates, 1986 and 1987. '
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Degrees Conferred
The total number of degrees conferred (associate and higher) was 1,813,000 in academic year 1987, down a slight
1 percent from the year before (table 2). Associate degrees was the only category of awards to show a sizeable drop
(4 percent) between 1986 and 1987. Total conferrals at the bachelor's, master's, doctor's, and first-professional levels
showed no statistically significant change at the 95 percent confidence level. r
Associate degrees
Associate degree awards dropped for the second yeaz in~ row. Their decline of 4 percent (18,600) in 1987 was more
than double the decline (8,700) between 1985 and 1986. Both men and women expenenced the 4 percent drop in
degrees; this meant that women retained their 56 penrertt share of awards-the largest of any degree level. Public in-
stitutions, which awarded four-fifths of all associate degrees. had a much large loss m the number of awards than their
private counterparts. Most of these losses were at communrty colleges since these schools offer the most associate de-
gree programs.
Bachelor's degrees
Although the number of bachelor's degrees conferred remained stable between 1986 and' 1987, awards to men
dropped 2 percent while awazds to women rnereased 2 percent. The 2 percent decline for men follows 5 consecutive
years of increase. Women have m~ie annual gains in bachelor's degree awazds for over a decade, earning just over
one-half of these awazds since 1982. And 1987 was no exception: women received 512,000 awazds, their largest num-
ber ever, and now account for 52 percent of alt degree recipients at this level. Private institutions reported a 3 percent
increase in bachelor's degree awards to women, while awazds to women at public institutions grew only 1 percent.
Postbaccalaureate degrees
Awards at the master's, doctor's, and fast-professional levels were stable between 1986 and 1987. In 1987, women
received 51 percent of the master's degrees and 35 percent of the doctor's and first-professional degrees. Public in-
stitutions had significant increases of 3 percent or more m the number of women earning degrees at all postbaccalaureate
levels.
Finance
The current funds revenues of institutions of higher education reached an estimated $108 billion in fiscal yeaz 1987,
and current funds expenditures and transfers totalled $106 billion (table 3). These increases represented changes of
5 percent in revenues and 6 percent in expenditures over the previous year. Compared with these overall national
averages, however, percent increases were higher in private 4-year institutions and lower in public 2-year colleges.
3U.S. Department of Education, Carter for Education Statistics, Degrees and Other Formal Awards Conferred surveys, 1985 and 1986, un-
publishedtabulations.
4U.S. Deparmtent of Education, Cmta for Education Statisdca, Trmdr in Bachelor's and Higher Degrees, I9~S-1985, and Degees and Other
Formal Awards Conferred survey, 1986, unpublished tabulations.
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table 2.--Degrees conferred by institutions of higher education. by control of ittstitution and by lapel of degree and aex of
recipient: Academic years 1985-86 and 1986-87
Leval of degree
and sex of recipient
1986-87
(estimate)
Percent
change+
1986-87 Percent
1985-86 (estimate) change+
1986-87
(estimate)
Percent
change+
Total 1,830 1,813 -1 * 1,249 1,235 -1 +- 581 578 -1
Men 897 875 -2 + 598 586 -2 ? 298 289 -3
Momen 933 938 --, 650 669 -- 283 289 2
Associate
Total 446 427 -4 * 369 356 -4 * 77 72 -7
Men 196 188 -4 + 161 157 -3 3S 31 -12 ?
Women 250 240 -6 +- 208 199 -4 ? 42 41 -3
Bachelor's
Total 988 987 -- 659 656 -- 329 331 --
Men 486 475 -2 * 325 318 -2 ? 161 157 -2
Women 502 512. 2 * 333 338 1 ? 169 174 3 ?
Master's
Total 289 291 1 170 171 1 119 119 1
Men 144 142 -1 79 78 -1 64 64 --
Women 145 148 2 91 93 3 +- 54 SS 1
boctor's
Total 34 34 2 21 22 3 +~ 12 12 -1
Men 22 22 1 14 14 2 g g __
Women 12 12 2 8 8 4? 6 4 -2
pirst-professional
Total 74 74 -- 30 30 -- 44 44 --
Men 49 48 -2 19 19 -2 * 30 29 -3
Women 25 26 4 30 11 3 * 14 1S S
*Only percent changes which are noted by an asterisk are statistically different from zero at the 93 percent confidence
level. Percent changes ware calculated on actual, not rounded, values. Caution should be exercised when collectively
interpreting several percent changes noted by an asterisk. The confidence level that ALL of the percent changes being
considered are statistically different fray zero may be Less than 95 percent.
NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.
Tha 9S percent confidence intervals, expressed as a percent of the total 1986-87 degree estimates, are as follows:
total degrees (associate and higher) (? 0.8 percent), associate (? 2.7 percent), bachelor's (t 1.1 percent),
master's (t 1.4 percent), doctor's (t 2.4 percent), and first-professional (? 3.3 percent). (See appendix for
more information.) The confidence interval percents for each estimate are available upon request.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Center for Education Statistics, 1985-86 data are fran the Higher Education General
Information Survey (NEGIS), Degrees and Other Formal Awards Conferred Between July 1, 1985 and June 30, 1986:
1986-87 data are from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Sample Survey of Early National
Estimates, 1987.
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Table 3.--Currant funds revenues and current funds expenditures and transfers in institutions of higher aduaation, by control and
level of institution: ,Fiscal years 1986 and 1987
Control and Level
of institution
Fiscal year
1986
Fiscal year
1987
(estimate)
Control:
Public
Level:
4-year
Selected control/levels:**
Publia 4-year 54,960,806 57,673,675
Percent
change*
Fiscal year
1986
Fiscal year
1987
(estimate)
S * 53,398,542 56,643,881
6 * 33,930,837 36,733,978
2 11,668,767 11,809,323
*Only percent changes which are noted by an asterisk are statistically different from zero at the 95 percent confidence level.
**Oata for private 2-year institutions are not shown separately because the number of institutions sampled was small and the
standard errors large.
NOTE: Details may not add to totals due to rounding.
lhaae data are not directly comparable to the data from previous years presented in other CES publications, such as the
Digest of Education Statistics, from which duplicate Pell grant disbursements have been removed.
The 95 percent confidence intervals, expressed as a percent of the total fiscal year 1987 estimates, era t 1.0 percent for
revenues and t 1.0 percent for expenditures and transfers. (See appendix for more information.) The confidence interval
percents for each estimate are available upon request.
SOURCE: U.S. Dcpartmant of Education, Center for Education Statistics, Fiscal year 1986 data are from the Higher Education General
Information Survey (AEGIS), Financial Statistics of Institutions of Higher Education for Fiscal Year 1986 Fiscal year 1987
data are from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Sample Survey of Early National Estimates, 1987.
Percent
change*
0
O
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Appendix
Survey Methodology
The 1987 data are based on responses from the 635 institutions on the Early National Estimates Panel (a stratified
random sample representative of the universe of 3,422 institutions of higher education in the United States in the
1987 academic year). Selected data items from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) survey
forms were requested by telephone from the Early NaUOnal Estimates Representative of each sample institution be-
tweenmid-October and mid-November 1987. The data were edited in light of previous years' survey responses (where
available) and were resolved for questionable data.
The overall response rate for the 1987 Early National Estimates data collection was 97 percent. Weighted response
rates for each type of data collected were: Enrollment--96 percent, Completions--92 percent, and Finance--87 percent.
The sample weights were adjusted w account for nonresponse. The sample data were then weighted to national es-
timates using ratio estimation which uses the previous year's data for the universe of institutions.
The Early National Estimates data are subject to both sampling and nonsampling error. While iris difficult ro measure
nonsampling error, the magnitude of sampling error.can be indicated by the confidence interval for an estimate. For
this sample at the 95 percent confidence level, total estimates are within 1 to 2 percent of what would have been ob-
tained from a survey of all institutions of higher education (appendix table). Data for the universe of all postsecondary
institutions in the IPEDS surveys will be available in fa111988.
For more information on the sample selection, data collection, or estimation methodologies, or for individual stand-
ard errors for the sample estimates in this report, please contact the authors.
Acknowledgments
CES wishes to thank the institutions in the Early National Estimates Panel for providing the data on which these es-
timates are based. All those involved in the data collection, data processing, report preparation, and review process
worked quickly to release these early estimates. Preliminary data were reviewed by education association repre-
sentatives, and the draft report was reviewed by peer reviewers from within and outside CES. Of special note is the
contribution of the other members of the Analysis, Early Estimates and Resource Surveys Team: Summer Whitener,
Paul Merlins, Aurora D'Amico, and Mike Cohen.
i-ppendix ~bla.-~llcaaacy of nslectad dntn fsan tie Bm~le lays of f5nrly
s~+~~ f3etimnter, 1986 and 1987
paxaent
ss:rie
Iawar
oontide~os
]1mit+
Upnar
oonfi,denoe
limit
? 1.0 12,272 12,523
? 1.7 12,335 12,753
? 0.8 1,798 1,827
? 1.0 X107,233,625 t109,3~2,61~
? 1.0 $105,322,017 =107,527,077
~'1l~e upper aad ],waQ oanlidenoe limit ate tar aac3i ~stimnte apmnnatit the
aoouracy of these errtiemtae in light of aa?p+linq e?xoz. 111though the ectunl
valuM of the item axs not lc~ tai the univa?'e of itfstitutioru, the upper
aad lnras ]Sm1L haw been o0natrttetad eo thnL the aetunl valves t.t t bfCM9e1
them nt the 95 paz~t oonfidsnoe lenrol. 'il~ess margins of axxvs as. also
pceee,td a. a parosnt at t2fe sisal astsmnts in the pesa~eit range ooluan.
80I3lC~tD.6. Depnx~neit of I~ontion, f7ester fas ffiuostion Btatlstisa, data for
1986 tall ~sollatent a=s bier the zntagznted Posteeootdary Itsluoatian Data
Byeten (II+~6), 6enQle Survey of Inrly Iintiaal 8etlmetei, 19861 ~~ tar the
ssroininq itaos are tma the 1p>+~6 BnsQle Survey of Early Llntia~nl f5etimntas,
19t37.
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