REVISION OF 1981 GUIDELINES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89T01032R000100080042-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2012
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: July 8, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

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COt.FYDENTIAL
8 July 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: All NIOs
FROM: H. F. Hutchinson, Jr.
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: Revision of 1981 Guidelines
1. Please provide your comments on the revised guidelines for
interagency intelligence production.
2. This revision to the 1981 guidelines was directed by the DCI on
1 June, and I met with Intelligence Community representatives on 16 June to
hear their suggestions. Please note the attached summary of their comments.
3. After several discussions with the DCI/DDCI on their preferences for
a more streamlined, process, we drafted the revised guidelines. Please note
that there is a two page Procedures, largely a statement of principles and
broad guidelines for the Community. Attached to the Procedures is a
Checklist with the more detailed steps the NIO would follow in implementing
the Procedures. Also attached to the Checklist is a brief description of
the four types of interagency products.
4. We plan to incorporate your comments before consulting the DCI/DDCI
and then sending these out for Community comments. After that, we would
schedule NFIB discussion.
H. F. Hutchinson, Jr.
Attachments:
As Stated
cc: SRP
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The Director of Central Intelligence
30 July 1981
NFAC 4652-81
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Foreign Intelligence Board Principals
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Interagency Intelligence Production
The attached procedures for interagency production, which
we discussed at NFIB on 21 July, are approved and are effective
imnediately. When feasible, estimates in progress will be
adjusted to conform. I ask your cooperation in making the new
system work.
Attachment:
Procedures For Production
Interagency me i ence 981
Assessments, dated July
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER-
REVIEW ON JULY 87 Derived from multiple
jaM:4~~ IIw4~r?y
F 11
rnrjCtnPOTTAI
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CO DENTIAL
27 July 1981
are the most
s
S
l
should be given the
National IntelligncIntellmates%C
and
o a ity
important product of the
highest priority by all intelligence agencies. They will again become the formul
n
primary intelligence Community coI~teragencytIntetligence Me orandaowill -
process at the national level. (continue to be produced as before, on occasions when.the See paramount)intelli
gence task is the reaching of factual
The principal purpose of these thanes
better dexamination
--Topesand ifoN SChandeCabinet-level
are existing g estimates
and consideration, while preserving their usefulness for
other important consumers
--To assist senior policymakers by producing interagency
assessments which are less bulky -- and to do so quicker.
--To improve the substantive. usefulness of such assessments
to the policy process.
--To enhance senior review othernNFthe IB Intelligencmoe
engaging the DCI and the
arriving at the judgments set out in these assessments.
Categories of Estimates
ecial National Intelli encf ,Essuchtestimwill ntesewillenormallyaarise current
event or policy issue. The need for To be useful, they must be brief and
from the policy formulation process.
timely. Papers directed at relatively narrow"questionsAand oSNIEsn ar y
short deadlines will normally be produced
category includes "Contingency" estimates, broader m.,ehaty ouldNIesthe rictionly
if the US did X?" There will also be require expeditious handling.
in the political and economic fields, that
Production of SNIEs will- be governed by the "fast track" procedures discussed
below (page 2).
NTIAL
OCEDURES FOR PRODUCTION O
PR
MENTS
INTE N L
This Notice establishes em d o of National
intelligence assessments, base tional Intelligence Council (NI C), and on recent critiques of existing procedures.
Pol i c
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National Intelligence Estimates will also fall in two Categories.
"Category " N s w those devoted to less pressing policy concerns%
Yu oslavia After Tito. tied to tre category will somewhat
longer o prepare t an use t
include extensive back-up analsis. Thednunber ofll be g Category eI governed more
deliberate procedures (see page
decrease in coming months as the number of SNIEs increases. The major
periodic estimates, including the Soviet military a schedule awill be pprovedlbyted
as Category II NIEs. They will be produced
the DCI after consultation with NFIB (see page 4).
Content of NIEs and SNIEs
In preparing estimates, Principals, Chairmen, and drafters shall
assure that drafts:
--Are as directly relevant to ongoing policy concerns as
possible, within tground Th yrules houldpbe writtendincawaren
by intelligence officers.
of the US role in the given situations, analyze the
degree to which these situations may be susceptible to the
the
influence of oeUS or ioutcfriends,
for US interests.
significance of various
--Contain as musfuture possible, deincluding
w developments.
velopmen
whereere, appropriate possible alternative
and other
l military, a onomic economic
--Integrate political*
to the broader
forces and
especially with respect
political purposes of military power-
--Avoid secondary issues and unnecessary detail.
--Contain, as has been the practice, any alternative or
dissenting views.
--Indicate the validity of the intelligence supporting the
estimate.
Fast-Track Procedures for SNIEs
Initiation: Preparation of SNIEs may be proposed to the DC1
NIO is expected to anticipate the
the
senior o ~cer, although hough
need for such estimates through his participation irmann immediately
process. If the DCI approves a proposal,
a notify NFIB Principals by telephone
each DPrincipalanamge ansinglesqualified
of the estimate and requesting that
to and in be the able coordination
to speak for their.
officer fully shoudrepresent
Representatives Principal.
should have access
CONE
ca+
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jeans of leference (TORS)/Concept Payers: The Estimate Chairman
will immediately prepare draft TORS and a concept paper, check them out tati ves
with the requester and the DCI, and coordinate with the them show dptakenno more
by telephone and LDX. For Category A SNIEs.
than 24 hours, for Category B, no more than 3 days.
Drafting Responsibilities: TheChar an will in theidentify course drafters
establishing TORs negotiate with the Pi
and contributors who are both qualified and available. It will be the
responsibility of the Principals to free assigned drafters andegortributors
from conflicting duties until the draft is completed. A
should regularly require no more than 2 days, for Category B, 5 days.
rma : The SNIE will regularly run no more than 5 pages for
Category A and 10 for Category B. Where essential, annexes may be appended.
Coordination: When the Chairman has a satisfactory draft, he will
distribute it to the representatives coordination, PrincipalsX.
Representatives should
For Category A SNIEs, the Chairman will, when time permits, convene a will representatives meeting to coordinate the paer, but in shouextreme
ld notsbe more
coordinate by telephone. In any case
than 2 days. For Categcomplete representatives sentamore tives will dnormally meet, and
coordination should be
NFIB Consideration: SNIEs will normally be reviewed by the DCI at
this stage. Concurrence of the Principals in Category A SNIEs will then
,be obtained by telephone or through a special NFIB meeting within the next
24 hours. Category BSNscheduled~yoriat bespeciconsidalemeetired
nogmore than
meeting if conveniently
3 days should be required.
Category I NIE Procedures
Initiation: NIEs in Category I will normally be proposed by the NIC
and sc e u e well in advance, although any NFIB Principal or senior policy con officer may request one. The ldhenuadditionbto orsdeletiidered
and approved by the DCI. Shou
schedule be proposed. Principals will be given an opportunity toe commenthai
prior r to a decision by the DCI. Before work begins on a paper, the
is responsible for designatin an aa nsiand ngleoqualifiedhofficer
u
Principals. Each Principal in tug
fully empowered to represent him in preparation of the estimate.
Terms of Reference/Concept Paper: The Estimate Chairman will prepare
draft '"M and a concept paper. a will assure that before they are sent out
to the agency representatives, tese
policy officers concerned and
Once these papers go out to thereise~fore representatives, , rethe latter presentatives will
eomeetoethed
to review them with their Princip rior the
coordination meetings. The usual time to be given for such review, p
the meetings of the representatives, will be one week. In cases where...-
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circumstances warrant significant changes in the initial purpose, scope,
concept, or Tthe of
a eof therDCIhandhthe NFIBiPrincipalsthat these
changes have
Drafting Responsibilities: The Chairman will, in the course of
preparing and coordinating TORs, negotiate with the representatives to
identify drafting officers and arrange for contributions from individual
agencies. It will be the responsibility of each Principal to ensure that
on schedule. Drafts
delivered
contributions ;ss~nCpr~leted within one month.
should regularly
Format: Each draft Category I NIE will normally consist of the basic
estimate and a shorter Key Judgments section. Both will be coordinated
by the Agency representatives. When published, the first volume of the NIE
will contain only the Key Judgments. Volume I should be no more than 10
printed pages in length. The basic estimate will be published as back-up There analysis in ngcormcomplexity Volume the.estimat will.
will necessitatebvariationsoccasions
where the length
on this concept.
Coordination: When the Chairman has a satisfactory draft, he will
distribute it to the representatives. The latter will be given 2 weeks
to consult with their respective Principals on the content of a draft
before the representatives meet for coordination with the paper's Chairman.
,The representatives will meet on consecutive working days for as long as
necessary to complete coordination. Discussion at these meetings will
center on ironing out questions of fact, examining the principal assessments
of the given paper, and identifying main areas of agreement or disagreement/
dissent. If major revisions are necessary, there can be a clean-up meeting
to review the final text; issues will not will be examineds.
Any major issues not
at NFIB by the DCI and the Principals.
NFIB Consideration: Volume I as coordinated by the representatives
(that s, Key u gments, together with any dissents or unresolved issuu0s)
will go to the DCI for approval and distribution to the Principals, will
be given at least 7 working days to review the final draft. ItNwill discussion
scheduled for the next regular meeting of NFIB thereafter. At
will center on the estimate's major questions, with any necessary editorial
or minor fixes to be done subsequently under the direction Chairman, wNIC ill
and the paper's Chairman, as directed at NFIB by the DCI. The
afterVolume ~IIlto Volume I.
also be responsible for f within onecoordinated
Volume II will be published
Category II (periodic) NIE Procedures
The procedures outlined above for Category I NIEs in general apply also
to Category II. These papers are likely to be longer (sometimes more than
two volumes) and more complex than those in Category I, and arrangements for
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their production may involve an elaborate structure of working groups and
subgroups, DCI Committees, etc. They will also take more time to prepare.
Nonetheless, every effort will be made to move them along expeditiously, con
roduction and to keep cosh Ild notcbeisesigniand underethese procedures.
periodic NIE
Interagency Intelligence Memoranda (IIM)
The IIM will be prepared in accordance with SNIE or NIE procedures
as appropriate to the issue addressed, except that it will be coordinated
in the Community at the NFIB representatives level and issued by the
Chairman, NIC. Representatives may, of course, seek the approval of their
Principals. An IIM may be referred to NFIB and issued by the DCI if he so
decides, or if requested by a NFIB Principal.
General
These procedures should provide a maximum of one week for the production
of Category A SNIE's, three weeks for Category B SNIE's, and three to four
months for the production of Volume I of Category I and most Category II
NIE's. Principals will, of course, retain their right of dissent in all
cases and categories of estimates, including IIM's.
After NFIB discussion of an SNIE or NIE, the estimate Chairman will
convene.the representatives for a review of and follow-up to the NFIB
proceedings. This meeting should also focus on identifying gaps in
collection or analysis for future emphasis. The Chairman will be responsible
for initiating further action through appropriate channels to fill such gaps.
These procedures may be abridged by C/NIC when an estimate is needed
more quickly than they will permit. The only essential conditions are that
each agency have an opportunity to dissent, and that the DCI approve the
final product.
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24 June 1987
Staammary of NFIB Agency Views on procedures
comments prepared for your 16 June meeting and for the NFIB session on
"objectivity and integrity" demonstrate a broad consensus within the Community
on seven principal areas:
1. The number of estimates should be reduced duc~~t~ more rigorous
standards for both topics and quality
--The Director of INR urges that NFIB review production plans with the
aim of producing fewer, more relevant and better products. He observes
that "there appears to be considerable question as to whether the
products serve any useful purpose."
--The DDI also contends that "We are clearly doing too many estimates,
and too many of our estimates look more like research papers than
estimates." He recommends that estimates address only critical
intelligence questions on important policy issues and that they be
"analytic and estimative in nature."
--DIA proposes that the number of estimates in the NIC hoProduc c requests Pland
be reduced "to a reasonable n mber," allowing for
a better balance between volume and resources. DIA would exclude
drafts which are "largely background papers containing current/historical
information but little if any estimative judgments geared-to policy-
maker needs."
--Air Force and Navy agree that estimates siDuld meet the test of
that their "substantive thrust"
"utility to the policy arena" and
should be estimative, not "factual."
--The Director of NSA points out that "the quality of TORS is not uniformly
high.. Yet that is where the issues representatives houdbrimed, not aftewithr
has provided a draft and community
to do but take petty swipes at details."
IT. Estimates should be shorter, more concise and more easily grasped by
busy'readers.
Navy and Air Force all agree that "some estimates are too
lengthy" and unwieldy. Army, DIA particularly stresses a need to shorten the
e.
Key Judgments and suggested T at"Executive Summaries might be prepared
for "those without time to
III. More careful attention should bi given
Draftseshould hold n purpose and of
concept of estimates before drafting g
facts and events to a minimum. The main thrust should be analytic and estimative.
--The Director of INR suggests that estimate chairmen should consult
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NFIB representatives before TORs are drafted. Chairmen should convene
pre-TOR meetings to discuss concepts and definitions of papers.
--DIA, Air Force and Navy agree that most estimates devote excessive space
and attention to reciting facts and recent history, at the expense of
thoughtful and carefully crafted projections of future trends, events,
and alternatives.
IV. The NIOs, acting as estimate chairmen, should perform the role of
manager, coordinator and "honest broker" in pulling together the views of
NFIB agencies. They should not advocate spy particular analytic line, nor
should they coordinate or chair estimates they have drafted.
V. More time should be allowed for review and coordination.
--DIA recommends "Slow down the interagency process to allow more time
for review by experts."
--IM suggests that "NIOs should be held to established coordination
procedures."
--Navy proposes that "specific production timelines" be eliminated.
VI. Changes in a coordinated text either before or after NFIB consideration
should be held to a minimum and should be reviewed and approved by NFIB
representatives.
--INR proposes that if the DCI makes changes in a final draft, the paper
should be remanded to the representatives for review and comment.
VII. NFIB Principals should be involved earlier and more deeply in the
process.
--DIA counsels "Get the Principals involved early, especially on those
estimates that promise to be controversial."
--The DDI expressed the view that NFIB should approve TORs "to ensure
that only important topics are selected for NFIB consideration, and
that the critical issues are being addressed in the estimative process."
--The Dirctor of INR calls for interagency consultations prior to the
drafting of TORS.
--The Dirctor of NSA complains that 'TORs are pulled out of the air. They
arrive too late for me to review then."
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DENTIAL
DRAFT
7 July 1987
PROCEDURES FOR PRODUCTION OF
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE MENTS
This Notice establishes revised guidelines for production of national
intelligence estimates and assessments.
Purpose
These procedures are intended to strengthen the Intelligence Community's
capacity to support the DCI in producing national intelligence responsive to
the needs of senior consumers. The system must be able to respond quickly
to foreign trends and developments that create new requirements for
intelligence assessments. National Intelligence Estimates, Special National
Intelligence Estimates, and Interagency Intelligence Memoranda and
Assessments will be formulated primarily with a view to assisting senior
policymakers at the NSC and Cabinet level. These products will be
predominantly analytical and usually will address a limited number of policy
relevant key questions; accordingly, they will avoid unnecessary detail and
their scope streamlined.
Categories of Interagency Assessments
National Intelligence Estimates and Special National Intelligence
Estimates will remain the Intelligence Community's principal contribution to
the formulation of foreign and security policies at the national level. The
production plan for NIEs will reflect the prevailing mid-range policy agenda
(2 to 5 years). Although any NFIB Principal or senior policy officer may
request a NIE, the production plan normally will be prepared annually by the
NIC and be approved by the DCI in consultation with NFIB. SNIEs will be
reserved for assessments of specific events, narrow questions, or policy
issues that require short deadlines. Because of the urgency and ad hoc
nature of SNIEs, they normally will be produced on a "fast-track" schedule.
They should be accorded the highest priority by NFIB members.
Procedures
Before work begins on an interagency intelligence product, the Chairman,
NIC will designate an NIO to be responsible for the paper and will notify
the NFIB Principals. Each Principal will designate an officer to represent
him in preparation of the estimate.
CONFLD&NITAL
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The NIO, in consultation with NFIB representatives and policy officers,
will prepare draft Terms of Reference and a Concept Paper. The Concept
Paper, Terms of Reference, and Key Questions of the estimate will be
approved by the DCI.
After the TORs have been approved, the NIO, in consultation with the
representatives, will designate drafters and contributors. The NFIB
Principals should relieve these officers of regular duties until their
special assignments to the estimate have been fulfilled.
Schedules for drafts, coordination, and presentation to NFIB will be
established by the NIO, in consultation with the representatives. It is not
feasible to prescribe more than general schedules for products that vary so
much in scope, detail, and length. The TORs and Concept Papers for
scheduled NIEs will be reviewed and should be approved by NFIB Principals
and their representatives within three weeks. For SNIEs, this review should
be completed within a week, unless the DCI mandates an accelerated schedule
of hours or days. With the change to shorter, more.concise estimates,
however, the drafting and coordination process will require substantially
less time than in the recent past.
The DCI usually will review draft texts of estimates before they are
submitted to NFIB representatives for coordination to confirm that the paper
and its key judgments meet the criteria established by the Concept Paper and
Terms of Reference.
The NFIB representatives should have sufficient delegated authority to
agree to changes'in the text at the coordination meeting that are, except in
the most unusual circumstances, binding on their Principals. Changes
submitted after coordination usually will be reviewed by the representatives
before sending the text to the NFIB principals. For scheduled NIEs, NFIB
agencies should have 10 working days to review final drafts prior to the
NFIB meeting. For SNIEs, agencies should have five working days to review
final drafts, except for the most time-sensitive estimates.
Dissenting views and alternative judgments or interpretations will be
expressed in the body of the estimate. Footnotes will be used only for
references to other national intelligence products or for explanatory
information.
At the discretion of the NIO more complex and detailed NIEs may include
a brief Executive Summary in addition to the Key Judgments section.
Interagency Intelligence Memoranda and Assessments
These papers will be produced in accordance with NIE and SNIE
procedures, except that they will not be formally approved by NFIB. They
will be issued by the Chairman, NIC rather than by the DCI. Any IIM or IIA,
however, may be referred to NFIB and issued by the DCI if he so decides, or
if requested by a NFIB Principal.
Attachment: Summary Production Checklist
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Draft
7 July 1987
SUMMARY PRODUCTION CHECKLIST
1. TOPIC DEVELOPMENT
-- NIO develops with community
-- NIO through C/NIC proposes and provides rationale for start, stop,
major change to DCI/DDCI and requests approval of recommended
action. Rationale for start includes tentative concept paper and
terms of reference. DCI approves, disapproves, directs changes
-- NIO through C/NIC informs NFIB Principals of DCI approval to
proceed and requests representatives
II. PRE-COORDINATION TOR
-- NIO develops with drafter and community*
-- NIO through C/NIC seeks SRP comments*
-- NIO through C/NIC transmits draft TOR to NFIB Principals and
schedules representatives meeting
III. COORDINATED TOR
-- NIO coordinates with community representatives
-- NIO through C/NIC forwards for information to DCI/DDCI coordinated
TOR/CP and indicates how SRP comments and community views were
accommodated
-- NIO through C/NIC releases TOR to NFIB Principals along with
drafting schedule
IV. PRE-COORDINATION DRAFT
NIO develops with drafter and community
-- NIO through C/NIC seeks SRP comments**
CO NTIAL
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NIO through C/NIC forwards pre-coordination draft to DCI/DDCI for
information and comments; indicates how SRP views and TOR
accommodated**
NIO through C/NIC transmits draft to NFIB Principals and schedules
reps meeting
V. POST-COORDINATION DRAFT
NIO coordinates with community reps
NIO through C/NIC indicates impact of coordination on draft
(and accommodation of SRP comments)
NIO releases draft to DCI and NFIB Principals for review
NIO accommodates routine changes with community prior to NFIB
VI. NFIB
NFIB reviews draft, discusses any major issues, and DCI approves or
remands estimate
Telephone coordination reserved in lieu of meeting for lesser,
non-controversial papers, and after meetings for changes directed
by NFIB __
*May be included in I. Topic Development if time permits.
**Prefer to inform DCI at this point of how SRP comments were accommodated
but may be delayed to post-coordination draft.
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DRAFT
7 July 1987
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
This in-depth assessment addresses significant intelligence questions
that bear upon major policy issues. The principal criterion for undertaking
a NIE is that it describes and evaluates trends or developments that will
have significant effects on US interests or security and will normally
appear on the NSC agenda. Production plans for NIEs will reflect the
mid-range policy agenda in the next two to five years.
Judgments and projections in NIEs of course will be based on the most
comprehensive intelligence data and research findings available, but
summaries of factual information or historical developments will be held to
the minimum necessary to illuminate the substance of the estimate. The main
weight of the text will be devoted to analyses that will serve policymakers'
needs by anticipating developments that are likely to require consideration
at the NSC level. These analyses will focus on identifying those factors
that will shape the mid-term course of events, evaluating alternative lines
of development and scenarios, identifying potential discontinuities, and
projecting the implications of various outcomes and ranges of probabilities.
Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIEs)
This format will be reserved for rapid assessments of short-term
implications for US interests or security of a specific development or
event. They normally will be undertaken either in response to specific
requests by policy official or at the initiative of the DCI or another NFIB
Principal to meet new requirements for community judgments. In contrast to
NIEs, which will be scheduled well in advance, SNIEs are time-sensitive and
the majority will require fast-track procedures.
Inters enc Intelligence Memorandum and Interagency Intelligence Assessment
TTIMs and s
These papers are produced in accordance with NIE and SNIE procedures,
except that they will not be formally approved by NFIB. They will be issued
by the Chairman, NIC rather than by the DCI.
IIMs generally will resemble NIEs in that they provide the community's
assessment of a body of data or a series of events and project alternative
outcomes and their implications for US interests. IIMs normally will
address problems or situations that will not engage the attention of NSC
members or at least are not yet ripe for NSC consideration.
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IIAs may be regarded as the counterpart of SNIEs in that they treat more
specific and limited topics than IIMs. IIAs will also be used for more
speculative evaluations of problems or situations in which a broad data base
is not available. These papers will focus on short-term policy implications
of various lines of development, prospects for sudden breakpoints or
discontinuities, and implications of policy choices, actions, or inaction.
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