PRG MEETING ON THE PERSIAN GULF, 18 APRIL 1988

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89G01321R000600530002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2012
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 19, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06
CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
Central Int&Iligence Agency
Washings on, D.C. 20505
20 April 1988
Per your request., attached are
the talking points px-ovided
for thei PIG meeting on
Monday, 18 April, as well as Jim's
memo for the record cif the 18 April
PRG meeting. Also attarke are more
recent taikig points that Jim used at
his HPSCI current intelligence
briefings on 19 April.
7Z
STAT
STAT
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06
CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06
CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
_..._....,.. .,.
. . .- INTELLIGENCE
TO
OFFICIAL INDICATED BELOW
STAT
See Me
Note and return
For your recommendation
Prepare reply and return for my signature
Respond over your signature
What are the facts?
Please handle
Hold
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06
CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
19 April 1988
SUBJECT: PRG eM Ming on the Persian--Gulf-,__18 April -198-8-
1. The PRG assembled at 2:00 p.m. Monday to assess the results of the
day's military operations in the Persian Gulf. Admiral Jonathan Howe briefed
on the day's events and the damage inflicted on Iranian naval units. Howe
stressed that conclusive evidence as to whether or not SILKWORM missiles had
been fired was lacking. He also reported the apparent loss of one US Navy
helicopter in the southern Gulf.
2. I briefed the group on CIA's thinking regarding likely Iranian
reaction once the immediate naval confrontation in the Gulf had ended. I
pointed out that prior to Monday's events Iran seemed to be preparing to
embark on a more aggressive course. A general rise in anti-US rhetoric inside
Iran, terrorist attacks against Saudi facilities since March, the decision to
resume mining in the Gulf itself, all suggested that the leadership in Tehran
is now less inclined or able to resist pressures from hard line elements who
are demanding a more belligerent approach to adjusting the status quo in
Iran's favor. Monday's setback in the Gulf likely will only increase the
frustration level in Tehran. I pointed out that this frustration will be
compounded by the successful Iraqi offensive over the weekend which forced
Iranian forces completely off the Al Faw peninsula to the Iranian side of the
Shatt Al-Arab. The US and our Gulf state allies should be braced for a series
of retaliatory Iranian steps such as SILKWORM firings against Kuwaiti oil
facilities, other acts of sabotage against Saudi and Gulf state targets, and
naval action against unescorted shipping in the Gulf. We also should be
prepared for a new round of Iranian terrorist activities. In this regard I
reminded the PRG that Iran does possess contingency plans for actions against
US individuals and facilities in Europe and the Gulf.
3. The assessment that we may now be faced with a more dangerous and
predictable Iran was unanimously shared by all.
Acting Deputy' Director for Intelligence
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
/3 TcIk~~y_ i V% +s or)1 f~SC_~!
1 q~ A p r; l I q ~s
Update on the Situation in the Persian Gulf
There were no additional military exchanges between US and
Iranian forces last night, and the Persian Gulf remains
relatively quiet.
Iranian gunboats, however, attacked a UAE-flag tanker; the
Ton Eal V, in the southern Gulf around 1330Z (0530 EDT),
according to press reports. There is no further information
on the extent of damages or casualties.
-- Iranian forces in the northern Gulf are on high alert and
have been ordered to confront any US threat.
-- We have no information to confirm press reports that Iran
fired several Silkworm missiles at US warships in the Strait
of Hormuz during yesterday's engagement. At least two US
combatants detected radar emissions possibly associated with
Silkworm firing positions near the western Strait, but there
were no reported missile launches.
We believe the Iranian response to the US attacks means we
can expect Tehran to employ more aggressively its conventional
military and terrorist assets against its opponents.
-- While the threat to US forces in the Gulf has undoubtedly
increased, we are not ready to say that Tehran will now
continue without pause to initiate direct, conventional
attacks on US military targets.
We believe what we have seen over the past few hours
represents Iran's response to an immediate situation in
which its forces were under attack by the United States.
Iranian leaders probably felt Iran would be humiliated and
lose all credibility if it reacted with restraint, as it did
last year when the US captured the Iran Ajr and attacked the
Rostam oil platform.
-- Once the current exchanges die down, we believe Iran
probably will be more cautious about initiating direct
attacks on US military targets, such as launching a Silkworm
missile against a US naval ship.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7 25X1
-- Iran now is left with no doubt that such attacks would bring
even more massive US retaliation, probably including strikes
against important Iranian military installations. Iran will
ll
think twice about risking such damage to its overa
military capabilities, especially now that it is facing a
more confident and aggressive Iraq.
-- The close proximity of US and Iranian forces, however, and
the heightened tensions between them increases the chances
of unintended clases that could quickly escalate.
In any case, we believe Iran will respond to today's events
with terrorist strikes against US targets.
-- Iranian intelligence officers world-wide have in recent
months engaged in extensive surveillance of otential US
targets
-- Iranian leaders probably will conclude that terrorism by
Iranian surrogates is the best method of delivering a blow
against the United States while limiting the prospects of
even more massive US retaliation.
Iranian revenge also is likely to be directed against US
allies in the Gulf and to take the form of increased terrorist
and conventional military strikes on selected targets in the Gulf
Arab states. Iran's options include:
-- Increased attacks on non-escorted shipping in the Gulf with
small boats, aircraft, and naval combatants--provided any of
the latter are left.
-- Launching Silkworm missiles against Kuwaiti oil economic
facilities.
-- Small boat attacks on Kuwaiti and Saudi offshore oil
facilities.
Sabotage of Kuwaiti oil facilities by pro-Iranian
dissidents.
Terrorist bombings of Saudi and Kuwaiti facilities world-
wide, such as the bombing yesterday of the Saudia Airlines
office in Frankfurt--the seventh such attack on a Saudi
target abroad since March.
Ira 's Offensive on the Al Faw Peninsula
Iraq says its offensive to recapture Iranian-held territory
on the Al Faw peninsula is continuing and that Iraqi forces have
retaken the disused port city of Al Faw. Iran claims Iraqi
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7 25X1
forces used chemical weapons and press reports. indicate that
fighting continues.
Iraqi forces had
along the southern flank of the Iranian salient.
advanced some eight or nine miles (13-14 kilometers) east
The attack indicates that Baghdad is more confident of its
military position on the ground and--in conjunction with its
missile war--has decided to retake the initiative to press
Tehran to negotiate on ending the war.
Iran claims that Kuwait allowed Iraqi troops to stage from
Bubiyan Island and that US helicopters assisted the Iraqis.
desire to retaliate against the US.
Tehran almost certainly will believe that US and Iraqi
actions have been coordinated, possibly strengthening its
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/06: CIA-RDP89G01321 R000600530002-7