ADDRESS TO THE STEERING COMMITTEE OF THE COUNCIL ON INTELLIGENCE AND POLICY JOHN F. KENNEDY OF GOVERNMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 46
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 14, 2012
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: December 9, 1987
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
rmu 0,-UI,,
9 December 1987
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: William M. Baker
Director, Public Affairs Office
SUBJECT:
Address to the Steering Committee
of the Council on Intelligence and Policy
John F. Kennedy School of Government
1. This is background information for your remarks to the Steering
Committee of the Council on Intelligence and Policy sponsored by Harvard
University's John F. Kennedy School of Government on Monday, 14 December,
7:00 - 10:00 p.m., at Bacon House, 1801 F Street, N.W., Washington, D.C.
Phone: [phone]. A business suit is the dress for the occasion.
2. Arrangements: You are asked to be at Bacon House at 7:00 p.m. where
you will be met by Professor Ernest May who will escort you to the reception
on the next floor. There will not be a receiving line. Dinner will be served
at 7:30 p.m. and the program will begin at 8:30 p.m. Graham Allison, Dean of
the John F. Kennedy School of Government, will present welcoming remarks and
the DCI will give 5 minutes of remarks "blessing" the program. Professor
Ernest May will speak for 10 - 15 minutes describing the project and then
introduce you at approximately 9:00 p.m. You are asked to speak for
approximately 10 minutes before turning the program back to Professor May to
moderate remarks from other members of the Steering Committee. You will be
seated at a table for 8 people with Professor Richard Neustadt. (See opposite
for biographies.) Since the room and group are small, a microphone will not
be necessary. DCI Security will tape your remarks for the Agency's historical
records. Adjournment is at 10:00 p.m. I will remain throughout the program.
Approximately 25 - 30 members of the Steering Committee, which includes
high-level current and former government officials from both the intelligence
and policymaking communities and academics and Agency employees will attend
the dinner. (See opposite for list of attendees.) Members of the media will
not be present.
CONFIDENTAIL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
6UNriUCNIIML
25X1
3. Background: As you are already aware, early in 1986 members of the
Kennedy School faculty began exploratory talks with the Agency about new
programs that both the Agency and the University believed met their interests,
standards, and requirements. After successful negotiations were completed, a
Steering Committee for the Council on Intelligence and Policy was proposed to
oversee the activities of the Project on Intelligence Assessment and Policy.
The DCI and Dean Graham Allison consented to be Co-Chairmen of this Committee
which includes representatives of the intelligence, policy, and
non-governmental (academic) communities. You also agreed to be a member.
(See opposite for list of those invited to serve.)
The contract between CIA and Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School
of Government establishes a 3-year unclassified program of research and
training regarding intelligence and the policymaking process. The long range
goal of the Program on Intelligence Assessment and Policy is to promote
greater understanding by intelligence and policy professionals of each other's
world, values, and practices. Projects are to be conducted by Harvard
University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and funded by the Agency at
$400,000 per year. (See opposite for press release, news articles, and
background information.)
The project is directed by the Kennedy School faculty members Professor
Ernest May, Professor Richard Neustadt, Dr. Gregory Treverton, Associate Dean
Peter Zimmerman and Ms. Lynn Whittaker. The program will have four
components: a seminar on intelligence assessment and decisionmaking will be
held twice a year at Cambridge; intelligence-specific case studies on
providing effective analytic support to policy decisionmakers will be
developed; a Council on Intelligence and Policy will meet several times a year
to review case studies produced under the contract; a CIA officer will serve
in residence as a referent on intelligence. Mr. Bill Kline from Foreign
Broadcasting Information Service will be the Agency's officer in residence at
the Kennedy School this year.
CONFIDENTIAL
William M. Baker
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
11111
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
PROPOSED REMARKS BY
WILLIAM H. WEBSTER
DIRECTOR CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
STEERING COMMITTEE
COUNCIL ON INTELLIGENCE AND POLICY
BACON HOUSE
WASHINGTON, D.C.
14 DECEMBER 1987
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
111111
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
STAT
UNCLASSIFIED
THANK YOU DEAN ALLISON.
(YOU MIGHT WISH JO MAKE A PERSONAL REFERENCE TO HIS REMARKS)
OUR PURPOSE TONIGHT IS TO CELEBRATE THE BEGINNING OF AN
IMPORTANT VENTURE, AND TO BEGIN OUR PART IN MAKING THAT VENTURE
SUCCEED.
THE PROJECT ON INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND POLICY HAS HAD A
PROMISING BEGINNING--WE HAVE HAD TWO EXPERIMENTAL EXECUTIVE TRAINING
SESSIONS AND BOTH WERE USEFUL AND PROVOCATIVE. THE SUCCESS OF
THESE INITIAL SESSIONS IS THE RESULT OF THE WORK OF DEAN ALLISON;
OUR DEPUTY DIRECTOR, BOB GATES; PROFESSOR ERNEST MAY, AND
WHO IS THE DIRECTOR OF OUR OFFICE OF TRAINING AND
EDUCATION.
UNCLASSIFIED
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
111111
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
UNCLASSIFIED
THE GOAL OF THE PROJECT--TO MAKE INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT OF POLICY
MORE EFFECTIVE--IS CLEARLY STATED, IS AN END WORTH PURSUING, AND IS
SOMETHING WE CAN ALL AGREE UPON. AND WE HAVE UNDERTAKEN THIS
PROJECT OPENLY AND COOPERATIVELY IN A WAY THAT SEEMS TO ME TO BE
EXACTLY RIGHT--4 WAY THAT, FOR ONCE, SHOULD NOT REQUIRE MY PRESENCE
BEFORE ANY CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEES.
THOSE OF US WHO WILL GUIDE THIS PROJECT ARE TO PROVIDE THE
BENEFIT OF OUR EXPERIENCE. I HAVE HEARD IT SAID THAT "EXPERIENCE
IS THE NAME EVERYONE GIVES TO THEIR MISTAKES.,2 BUT KNOWING WHAT
THOSE MISTAKES WERE IS USEFUL HERE. WHAT THOSE OF US ON THE
STEERING COMMITTEE WILL REALLY BE DOING IS PROVIDING INTELLIGENCE.
WE WILL OFFER ADVICE ON THE RESEARCH AGENDA AND SERVE AS A RESOURCE
FOR THE PROGRAM.
YOU WILL HEAR FROM OTHERS TONIGHT WHO WILL DESCRIBE THE PROGRAM
IN DETAIL. MY PURPOSE IS TO WELCOME YOU AND TO COMMEND YOUR SENSE
UNCLASSIFIED
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
111111
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
UNCLASSIFIED
OF PRIORITIES, YOUR EXPERTISE, AND YOUR INNATE WISDOM IN JOINING
US. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT PROGRAM-IMPORTANT TO THE ACADEMIC,
INTELLIGENCE, AND POLICY INTERESTS WE REPRESENT AND IMPORTANT TO ALL
OF US WHO ARE AFFECTED BY THE DECISIONS OF POLICYMAKERS. I HOPE YOU
WILL FIND YOUR PART IN THIS PROJECT REWARDING. I WELCOME YOUR
PARTICIPATION.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Footnotes
1The Office of Training and Education has sent the course
evaluations that were prepared by Harvard University. The
evaluations show the following quantitative results: The 22
participants in the March seminar gave the course an average rating
of 3.31 with 1 indicating unsatisfactory, 5 excellent. The 29
participants in the fall 1987 running rated the course at 3.79. The
students'narrative comments are varied. Most participants have
suggestions for future runnings of the course, but most seem to feel
the course was useful for them (see answers to question 2 "In what
ways do you think the program will be of use to you in your work?").
Evaluations attached.
2 Oscar Wilde is the author of the phrase "Experience is the name
everyone gives to their mistakes." It is taken from Lady
Windermere's Fan, written in 1892.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1 Aar
ADMINI LOGGED
25 NOV 1987
OTE 87-6719
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for Administration
SI-AT FROM:
SUBJECT:
Director ot Training and Education
Harvard Program on Intelligence and Policy:
Expected Benefits for the Agency
1. The establishment of the Program on Intelligence Assessment and
Policy by Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government represents a
major success for your efforts, as DDI, to improve relations between the
intelligence and academic communities.
2. Harvard University has been a prominent source of criticism of
CIA relations with academics. Thus, public acknowledgement of CIA
funding of Harvard's new program will be seen as evidence that
intelligence agencies and universities can work together in the national
interest.
3. The Program--essentially case studies and a seminar for
intelligence managers--will focus on an area of continuing challenge to
the Agency: Increasing the impact of analysis on the policymaking
process.
4. The Program will demonstrate to Congress the seriousness of our
interest in improving the professional quality and utility for
policymaking of our analysis.
5. The Seminar on Assessment and Policymaking, which has already
been held twice, brings to bear (1) the Kennedy School faculty's
understanding of relations between governmental experts and decisionmakers
generally, and (2) the hands-on experience (and frustrations) of
intelligence managers with the challenge in the national security arena.
6. The case studies funded under the Program will increase
understanding of what works, what does not, and why--ultimately to the
benefit of both parties to the intelligence-policy relationship.
ADMINISTRATIVE - SE ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - 'Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
STAT
SUBJECT: Harvard Program on Intelligence and Policy:
Expected Benefits for the Agency
7. The Council sponsored under the Program will enable us to use
the good offices .of Kennedy School to raise questions (and table
suggestions) regarding the practices of our policy colleagues that affect
the relationship.
2
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
STAT
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM
SUBJECT
Allan:
19 November 1987
: Kennedy School Contract: 14 December Dinner Meeting
Sorry about the confusion regarding the 14 December dinner meeting.
In addition to uncertain lines of communication, some groping to define
a new institution is at play.
As I understand matters, the Steering Committee of a Project on
Intelligence Assessment and Policy mentioned in Graham Allison's 6 November
letter to the DDCI, refers to the same Intelligence-Policy-Academic Council
cited in the 16 September memo from D/Th to the DDCI. The most likely
name for the new beast is the Council on Intelligence and Policy.
The Steering Committee dinner scheduled for 14 December is intended
to bless the overall program under the CIA-Harvard contract (Seminars for
Intelligence Managers, Case Studies, etc.) and to explain its purposes
and character to the members who were not in on the planning stage.
Judge Webster and Dean Allison will do the blessing. Professor May is
prepared to do the explaining. The issue at hand is whether the DDCI wants
to share that role with May. As I get it, the DDCI Would be introducing
Host Allison, speak informally for 5 minutes or so on how the program fits
in with his vision of the Agency and then join )Professor May in answering
questions from the other members.
The above is no more than a suggestion. We can work toward whatever
role the DDCI wishes to play at the dinner.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
GRAHAM ALLISON
DEAN
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
November 6, 1987
Dr. Robert M. Gates
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C. 20505
Dear Bob:
79 JOHN F. KENNEDY STREET
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
I am writing to invite you to become a member of the Steering
Committee of a Project on Intelligence Assessment and Policy, being
conducted by the Kennedy School of Government. The goal of the project,
funded by the Central Intelligence Agency, is to improve the interaction
between intelligence and policy in assessing foreign governments and
making foreign policy. To that end, the project comprises three sets of
activities: developing case studies on intelligence assessment and
decisionmaking; undertaking a series of one-week training programs at the
Kennedy School for intelligence analysts; and organizing a series of study
group meetings on specific issues of intelligence assessment and policy.
The Steering Committee consists of high-level current and former
government officials from both the intelligence and policy communities,
as well as experts from the academic community. We anticipate that this
Committee will meet twice a year to discuss general issues in
intelligence/policy relations and to provide advice and recommendations
for the development of project activities. A list of those we are
inviting to become members is attached, along with a project description.
We would be honored to have you as a member of this Steering Committee
and to join us for its first dinner-meeting, December 14, 1987, from 7:00
to 10:00 p.m., at Bacon House, 1801 F Street, in Washington. Judge
Webster and I will speak briefly about the project. Professor Ernest May
of the Kennedy School will then provide a further description of the
project and moderate the discussion.
One of my colleagues directing the project will call you in the next
few days to answer any questions you may have. We look forward to what we
hope will be your favorable response and to your participation in this
important project.
Graham T. Allison
Enclosures
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
STEERING COMMITTEE
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND POLICY PROJECT
Co-Chairmen:
Dean Graham Allison, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Judge William Webster, Director of Central Intelligence
Invitees for Membership:
Morton I. Abramowitz, Assistant Secretary of State, Intelligence and
Research Bureau
Michael Armacost, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs
Senator Bill Bradley, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Counselor, Center for Strategic and International
Studies
Frank Carlucci, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs
Congressman Richard Cheney, House Select Committee on Intelligence
Robert Gates, Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Lt. Gen. Edward Heinz, Director of Intelligence Community Staff
William Hyland, Editor, Foreign Affairs
Admiral Bobby Inman, Westmark Systems, Inc.
Professor Robert Jervis, Columbia University
General David Jones, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Richard Kerr, Deputy Director for Intelligence, Central Intelligence
Agency
Andrew Marshall, Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of
Defense
Congressman Dave McCurdy, House Select Committee on Intelligence
Senator Sam Nunn, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Lt. Gen. William Odom, Director of the National Security Agency
Lt. Gen. Leonard Perroots, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency
James Schlesinger, Counsel, Center for Strategic and International Studies
General Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National
Security Affairs
George Shultz, Secretary of State
Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of Defense
James Woolsey, Shea & Gardner
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND POLICY PROJECT
Project Structure and Planning
I. Overview
The Intelligence Assessment and Policy Project aims to understand better
how assessment relates to policymaking and, especially, how policymakers
do--and might--use assessments. The three-year program of research and
curriculum development is designed to draw on the expertise of both academics
and practitioners. By examining and drawing lessons from a series of
historical and contemporary cases, the project will develop teaching
materials and methods for university courses and training programs for
analysts, and produce a variety of publications.
II. Analytic Categories for Assessments
An idealized process by which assessments assist policymaking might be
the following. First, a situation exists in which policymakers want to
influence or make a decision regarding a foreign government. They need
appraisals of the foreign government in order to understand its make-up,
resources, objectives, governmental processes, etc. In the course of
defining the problem in hand, U.S. objectives, and U.S. options, the
policymakers need estimates of the possible effects of U.S. actions on the
foreign government and hence of new conditions that the United States may
face at some later point. We think of "assessment" as analysis of U.S.
problems and policy choices informed by analysis of how other governments may
perceive their problems and choices. It is hence inherently an activity
requiring cooperation and interaction between decision-makers and experts.
In hope of learning how this interactive relationship might be made more
efficient and effective, we propose to analyze and to invite informal debate
about a variety of cases in which assessment played, or should have played,
an important role in policy decisions. We have established an initial
framework for these analyses by focusing on six abstract "difficulties" an
analyst may face that must be overcome if his/her goal is to be attained.
These difficulties fall into three general categories, defined by the reason
for the difficulty.
A. NATURE OF THE ASSESSMENT
1. The unwelcome news difficulty. In this situation, the analyst's
estimate will be bad news to the policymaker, e.g., it provides
intelligence that undermines or calls into question the
policymaker's current policy or inclinations. The difficulty the
analyst faces is that his/her estimate will be ignored.
2. The too-welcome news difficulty. In this situation, the analyst
knows that his/her estimate will be good news to the policymaker.
However, the difficulty the analyst faces is that the estimate will
be so welcome that it will be used to justify more comprehensive or
extreme policy actions than can be appropriately supported.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
B. ABSENCE OF CRUCIAL ELEMENTS
3. Missing market difficulty.
created what he/she views
that there is no apparent
is that the estimate will
or creates the market.
2
In this situation, the analyst has
as an important estimate, but discovers
market for the news. The difficulty here
not be utilized, unless the analyst finds
4. Missing or inadequate product difficulty. In this situation, the
policymaker has specifically requested an estimate or the policy
process itself is clearly in need of it, but the intelligence an
analyst needs is missing or inadequate. The difficulty here is that
the intelligence community is unable to fill its assigned role of
contributing to policymaking. Policy may thus be made in ignorance
of vital information, and the reputation of the intelligence
community itself could be harmed.
C. ORGANIZATIONAL SETTING
5. "Intragovernmental" difficulty. In this situation, the analyst
provides an estimate in which he/she has confidence, but the
different policymakers who receive the estimate have different
policy preferences, and the estimate becomes a pawn in their
internal games. Here, the estimate may eventually be well-utilized,
but the difficulty is that it may be misused, ignored, or used
selectively or only after delay.
6. "Transition" difficulty. In this situation, a newly appointed
official or a new presidential administration faces a policy
decision, but the newcomer or newcomers are unfamiliar with the
structures and offices of the government and not only may not know
which questions to ask but also may not know how to go about finding
the necessary answers. The difficulty for the analyst is, again,
that policies will be made in absence of adequate assessment, and
while it may not do harm to the intelligence community, it will
deprive it of early opportunities to make a positive contribution.
The cases to be examined will be chosen on the basis of potential for
helping to answer the question, "What makes for assessments that are better
than usual?" Partly for sound logical reasons but also because much prior
study has focused on mishaps, other cases will contribute by answering, "What
made for assessments that were worse than usual?" The following list of
questions suggests some of the points to be addressed in each case: Did
education, training, and/or career pattern seem to make any difference? What
did individuals on the policy side stand to gain or lose from acquiring
working expertise about a foreign government? Did the nature of organization
or process make a difference? How were analyses of foreign governments
affected by the make-up of the analyzing agencies and the mix of types of
intelligence (human, signal, etc.) or types of expertise (regional,
functional, etc.)? Were overall assessments better to the extent that
intelligence analysis was kept separate from decision-making or to the extent
that the two meshed? Who asked for (or got) what kind of information, when,
and to what result? Did experts and policymakers have different judgments
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
3
about how to communicate with or influence the foreign government? If so,
why? To the extent one can judge, who was more nearly right? What
propositions are most nearly validated by experience? How and in what
circumstances have experts induced alteration in the preconceptions of
policymakers? How and in what circumstances have policymakers induced
alteration in the preconceptions of experts?
The cases will be crosscut in four categories defining the relationship
between the assessing government and the foreign government: familiar
friends, unfamiliar friends, familiar foes, and unfamiliar foes. Possible
cases are listed under these categories below, although the process of
examining them will help to determine if their initial placement is correct
or if they, in fact, fit into more than one category. For example, a
situation that a policymaker might characterize as "Unwelcome News" may look
to an analyst like news for which he faces a "Missing Market." In addition,
as cases are studied, the categories may well need to be refined.
Familiar Unfamiliar Familiar Unfamiliar
DIFFICULTIES Friends Friends Foes Foes
Unwelcome
News
Suez '56
Marcos France '40 Iran/contra
Shah
Too-welcome
News
France '36
Hitler Arms control
tractable treaty violations
Missing
Market
Skybolt
Vansittart PRC '50
(UK 30s)
Missing or INF '78/9 Shah
Inadequate
Product Yom Kippur War
Intragov. Six-Day War Lebanon Six-Day War
Politics (US) '82/3 (Israel)
Transition Truman & Japan SALT '77 Bay of Pigs
III. Cases
All the historical situations above are possible candidates for case
studies. We will also solicit ideas for cases from analysts in the
project's training programs and Council participants. We expect to prepare
twelve to eighteen cases; for the immediate future, we are focusing on five.
The first is a comparison and contrast of the contribution of
assessments to policymaking during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars.
Although the two wars were similar, the first was an intelligence and
policymaking success for the U.S. and Israel and the second was a failure,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
4
so we expect to be able to draw some instructive contrasts. The case will
examine both U.S. and Israeli assessments of the situation.
The second will focus on the fall of the Shah in Iran and its
aftermath. Drawing on the excellent literature on the subject and the
reflections of participants, the case will make explicit the lessons from
this intelligence failure. The case may also be broadened to consider more
generally the question of why the U.S. has had some successes but mostly
failures in its history of assessing Iran.
The third will examine the performance of the intelligence community in
the Iran-contra case. This case will focus especially on the
interaction of the estimating process with the politics of the situation.
The purpose of studying this case will, of course, be pedagogic rather than
investigative.
The fourth case will consider the Vietnam war--an intelligence success
but a policymaking failure. The case will focus on high-level assessment in
Washington, especially the evidence and procedures that produced accurate or
inaccurate assessments of Vietnam and of the United States.
The fifth case concerns the French in 1940, when extraordinarily
accurate estimates of German military plans seem to have been known to
analysts but totally ignored or rejected by decision-makers.
IV. The Council
The project will be shaped in part by a series of consultations with
current and past senior officials involved in intelligence assessment,
policymaking, or congressional oversight. This group, known as "The
Council," will consider plans for the project, review its research and case
products, and act as both resource and sources of guidance to the effort.
The Council will include a select steering group of about twenty members
co-chaired by the Dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and the
DCI. This steering group will meet twice yearly to provide overall guidance
and review of the project. Steering group membership will include senior
intelligence community leaders, current or past senior officials with policy
roles, and members of Congress involved in oversight of intelligence
activities.
In addition, a working-level group will meet more frequently (four to
six times each year) to consider particular research products, cases, and
other aspects of the project. The working-level group will be somewhat
larger (25-40) and will include a core group of regular members. Other
individuals with specialized knowledge of the particular topics under
discussion will be invited to each meeting.
The format of the meetings may vary, but will generally consist of a
late afternoon discussion, followed by a working dinner. Most meetings will
be held in Washington.
The first council meeting--which will be for steering group members and
Kennedy School project directors--is scheduled for Monday, December 14,
1987, in Washington. This meeting will include presentations by the Harvard
participants of the outline of the overall project and an opportunity to
discuss its content with the steering group. Dean Graham Allison and Judge
William Webster will co-chair this initial meeting.
Coordination and arrangements for all of these meetings are the
responsibility of the School's project staff.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
" Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
5
V. Training Programs
The next one-week training program for mid-level intelligence analysts
will be held at the Kennedy School the first week of November. Project
members have taken careful note of the participants' evaluations of the
first, experimental program, and are endeavoring to take account of their
primary concern that the cases and discussion more explicitly address the
role of intelligence assessment in policymaking. The discussions will also
attempt to draw more directly on the experience of the analysts
participating. Some existing cases will be modified for this program, and
new cases are being prepared.
VI. KSG Staff
The project is directed by Kennedy School faculty members Ernest May,
Richard Neustadt, Gregory Treverton, and Peter Zimmerman. Administrative
assistance is provided by Nancy Huntington; research coordinator is Lynn
Whittaker.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
GRAHASI.AW,0%
DEAN
October 21, 1987
Mr. Robert M. Gates .
Deputy Director
_-
Central Intelligence A,gency-
Washington, D.C. 20505 (
Dear Bob:
Vmommir
?????
79 lotiN F. KENNEDY STREET
CAMBRIDGE. MASSACHUSETTS 02138
We are delighted to be finally moving ahead with the program on
intelligence assessment and policy. The successful completion of
negotiations, which stretched our respective bureaucracies a bit, mark an
important milestone in the relationship between the intelligence community
and the academy.
An important issue that arose in the negotiations was the question of how
we make public our joint venture. Our institutions come at this from
different perspectives:
The agency has a strict policy prohibiting publicity of its contracts
or the use of the agency's affiliation in promotional materials;
Harvard has an unalterable policy regarding public disclosure of all
grants and contracts. We have no desire to publicize the project in a
promotional way. Nonetheless, we believe it is in the interest of
both institutions to work closely over the next few days to craft an
appropriate announcement and to coordinate its release.
My instincts are that we move quickly, before someone "discovers" a
relationship that we have no intention of keeping secret.
I've enclosed the proposed text of an announcement that could be issued
here in Cambridge.
I've asked my associate dean, Peter Zimmerman, who is overseeing the
project at this end to be in touch with your office in the next few days.
Again, I want to express my gratitude and enthusiasm for the confidence
and commitment you have shown in us. We look forward to the opportunity
to work with you.
Sincerely,
Graham T. Allison
GTA/lcg
Enclosure
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
November 6, 1987
nm
add
Dear sal :
I am writing to invite you to become a member of the Steering
Committee of a Project on Intelligence Assessment and Policy, being
conducted by the Kennedy School of Government. The goal of the project,
funded by the Central Intelligence Agency, is to improve the interaction
between intelligence and policy in assessing foreign governments and
making foreign policy. To that end, the project comprises three sets of
activities: developing case studies on intelligence assessment and
decisionmaking; undertaking a series of one-week training programs at the
Kennedy School for intelligence analysts; and organizing a series of study
group meetings on specific issues of intelligence assessment and policy.
The Steering Committee consists of high-level current and former
government officials from both the intelligence and policy communities,
as well as experts from the academic community. We anticipate that this
Committee will meet twice a year to discuss general issues in
intelligence/policy relations and to provide advice and recommendations
for the development of project activities. A list of those we are
inviting to become members is attached, along with a project description.
We would be honored to have you as a member of this Steering Committee
and to join us for its first dinner-meeting, December 14, 1987, from 7:00
to 10:00 p.m., at Bacon House, 1801 F Street, in Washington. Judge
Webster and I will speak briefly about the project. Professor Ernest May
of the Kennedy School will then provide a further description of the
project and moderate the discussion.
One of my colleagues directing the project will call you in the next
few days to answer any questions you may have. We look forward to what we
hope will be your favorable response and to your participation in this
important project.
Sincerely,
Graham T. Allison
Enclosures
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R0007009000-04-1
1
Exec14.17.1 PK:istry
HARVARD UNIVERSITY [ 87-3662x
101-1N F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
79 JOHN E KENNEDY STREET
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
Gregory F. Treverton
Lecturer in Public Policy
Senior Research Associate,
Center for Science and International Affairs
-Judge William Webster
Director of Central Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C. 20505
Dear Judge Webster:
November 13, 1987
(617) 495-91104
I know that you have been dealing with your colleagues, especially
about our Intelligence Assessment and
Policy Program, but I wanted to close the loop from Harvard's end. Let
me repeat how much we look forward to the program -- by now, I imagine
you have a read-out from the first two executive seminars we have held
here in Cambridge. We also look forward to your participation in the
kick-off dinner for the Program's Steering Committee, in Washington on
December 14th. I know I speak for my colleagues as well, especially
Graham Allison, Ernest May and Richard Neustadt.
For your information, I enclose the list of those on the Steering
Committee, Graham's letter of invitation for the dinner, and a brief
description of the Program that was sent with the letter.
We look forward to seeing you on the 14th. With all best wishes,
Yours s ncerely,
Gregory F. Treverton
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND POLICY PROJECT
Project Structure and Planning
I. Overview
The Intelligence Assessment and Policy Project aims to understand better
how assessment relates to policymaking and, especially, how policymakers
do--and might--use assessments. The three-year program of research and
curriculum development is designed to draw on the expertise of both academics
and practitioners. By examining and drawing lessons from a series of
historical and contemporary cases, the project will develop teaching
materials and methods for university courses and training programs for
analysts, and produce a variety of publications.
II. Analytic Categories for Assessments
An idealized process by which assessments assist policymaking might be
the following. First, a situation exists in which policymakers want to
influence or make a decision regarding a foreign government. They need
appraisals of the foreign government in order to understand its make-up,
resources, objectives, governmental processes, etc. In the course of
defining the problem in hand, U.S. objectives, and U.S. options, the
policymakers need estimates of the possible effects of U.S. actions on the
foreign government and hence of new conditions that the United States may
face at some later point. We think of "assessment" as analysis of U.S.
problems and policy choices informed by analysis of how other governments may
perceive their problems and choices. It is hence inherently an activity
requiring cooperation and interaction between decision-makers and experts.
In hope of learning how this interactive relationship might be made more
efficient and effective, we propose to analyze and to invite informal debate
about a variety of cases in which assessment played, or should have played,
an important role in policy decisions. We have established an initial
framework for these analyses by focusing on six abstract "difficulties" an
analyst may face that must be overcome if his/her goal is to be attained.
These difficulties fall into three general categories, defined by the reason
for the difficulty.
A. NATURE OF THE ASSESSMENT
1. The unwelcome news difficulty. In-this situation, the analyst's
estimate will be bad news to the policymaker, e.g., it provides
intelligence that undermines or calls into question the
policymaker's current policy or inclinations. The difficulty the
analyst faces is that his/her estimate will be ignored.
2. The too-welcome news difficulty. In this situation, the analyst
knows that his/her estimate will be good news to the policymaker.
However, the difficulty the analyst faces is that the estimate will
that it will be uS. L. justiiy co;aprehensive or
extreme policy actions than can be appropriately supported.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
2
B. ABSENCE OF CRUCIAL ELEMENTS
3. Missing market difficulty. In this situation, the analyst has
created what he/she views as an important estimate, but discovers
that there is no apparent market for the news. The difficulty here
is that the estimate will not be utilized, unless the analyst finds
or creates the market.
4. Missing or inadequate product difficulty. In this situation, the
policyMaker has specifically requested an estimate or the policy
process'itsif is clearly in need of it, but the intelligence an
analyst needs is missing or inadequate. The difficulty here is that
the intelligence community is unable to fill its assigned role of
contributing to policymaking. Policy may thus be made in ignorance
of vital information, and the reputation of the intelligence
community itself could be harmed.
C. ORGANIZATIONAL SETTING
5. "Intragovernmental" difficulty. In this situation, the analyst
provides an estimate in which he/she has confidence, but the
different policymakers who receive the estimate have different
policy preferences, and the estimate becomes a pawn in their
internal games. Here, the estimate may eventually be well-utilized,
but the difficulty is that it may be misused, ignored, or used
selectively or only after delay.
6. "Transition" difficulty. In this situation, a newly appointed
official or a new presidential administration faces a policy
decision, but the newcomer or newcomers are unfamiliar with the
structures and offices of the government and not only may not know
which questions to ask but also may not know how to go about finding
the necessary answers. The difficulty for the analyst is, again,
that policies will be made in absence of adequate assessment, and
while it may not do harm to the intelligence community, it will
deprive it of early opportunities to make a positive contribution.
The cases to be examined will be chosen on the basis of potential for
helping to answer the question, "What makes for assessments that are better
than usual?" Partly for sound logical reasons but also because much prior
study has focused on mishaps, other cases will contribute by answering, "What
made for assessments that were worse than usual?" The following list of
questions suggests some of the points to be addressed in each case: Did
education, training, and/or career pattern seem to make any difference? What
did individuals on the policy side stand to gain or lose from acquiring
working expertise about a foreign government? Did the nature of organization
or process make a difference? How were analyses of foreign governments
affected by the make-up of the analyzing agencies and the mix of types of
intelligence (human, signal, etc.) or types of expertise (regional,
functional, etc.)? Were overall assessments better to the extent that
intelligence analysis was kept separate from decision-making or to the extent
that the two meshed? Who asked for (or got) what kind of information, when,
and to what result? Did experts and policymakers have different judgments
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
3
about how to communicate with or influence the foreign government? If so,
why? To the extent one can judge, who was more nearly right? What
propositions are most nearly validated by experience? How and in what
circumstances have experts induced alteration in the preconceptions of
policymakers? How and in what circumstances have policymakers induced
alteration in the preconceptions of experts?
The cases will be crosscut in four categories defining the relationship
between the assessing government and the foreign government: familiar
friends, unfamiliar friends, familiar foes, and unfamiliar foes. Possible
cases are listed under these categories below, although the process of
examining them will help to determine if their initial placement is correct
or if they, in fact, fit into more than one category. For example, a
situation that a policymaker might characterize as "Unwelcome News" may look
to an analyst like news for which he faces a "Missing Market." In addition,
as cases are studied, the categories may well need to be refined.
Familiar Unfamiliar Familiar Unfamiliar
DIFFICULTIES Friends Friends Foes Foes
Unwelcome
News
Suez '56
Marcos France '40 Iran/contra
Shah
Too-welcome
News
France '36
Hitler Arms control
tractable treaty violations
Missing
Market
Skybolt
Vansittart PRC '50
(UK 30s)
Missing or INF '78/9 Shah
Inadequate
Product Yom Kippur War
Intragov. Six-Day War Lebanon Six-Day War
Politics (US) '82/3 (Israel)
Transition Truman & Japan SALT '77 Bay of Pigs
III. Cases
All the historical situations above are possible candidates for case
studies. We will also solicit ideas for cases from analysts in the
project's training programs and Council participants. Ve expect to prepare
twelve to eighteen cases; for the immediate future, we are focusing on five.
The first is a comparison and contrast of the contribution of
assessments to policymaking during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars.
Although the two wars were similar, the first was an intelligence and
policymaking success for the U.S. and Israel and the second was a failure,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
4
so we expect to be able to draw some instructive contrasts. The case will
examine both U.S. and Israeli assessments of the situation.
The second will focus on the fall of the Shah in Iran and its
aftermath. Drawing on the excellent literature on the subject and the
reflections of participants, the case will make explicit the lessons from
this intelligence failure. The case may also be broadened to consider more
generally the question of why the U.S. has had some successes but mostly
failures in its history of assessing Iran.
The third will examine the performance of the intelligence community in
the Iran-contra case. This case will focus especially on the
interaction of the estimating process with the politics of the situation.
The purpose of studying this case will, of course, be pedagogic rather than
investigative.
The fourth case will consider the Vietnam war--an intelligence success
but a policymaking failure. The case will focus on high-level assessment in
Washington, especially the evidence and procedures that produced accurate or
inaccurate assessments of Vietnam and of the United States.
The fifth case concerns the French in 1940, when extraordinarily
accurate estimates of German military plans seem to have been known to
analysts but totally ignored or rejected by decision-makers.
IV. The Council
The project will be shaped in part by a series of consultations with
current and past senior officials involved in intelligence assessment,
policymaking, or congressional oversight. This group, known as "The
Council," will consider plans for the project, review its research and case
products, and act as both resource and sources of guidance to the effort.
The Council will include a select steering group of about twenty members
co-chaired by the Dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and the
DCI. This steering group will meet twice yearly to provide overall guidance
and review of the project. Steering group membership will include senior
intelligence community leaders, current or past senior officials with policy
roles, and members of Congress involved in oversight of intelligence
activities.
In addition, a working-level group will meet more frequently (four to
six times each year) to consider particular research products, cases, and
other aspects of the project. The working-level group will be somewhat
larger (25-40) and will include a core group of regular members. Other
individuals with specialized knowledge of the particular topics under
discussion will be invited to each meeting.
The format of the meetings may vary, but will generally consist of a
late afternoon discussion, followed by a working dinner. Most meetings will
be held in Washington.
The first council meeting--which will be for steering group members and
Kennedy School project directors--is scheduled for Monday, December 14,
1987, in Washington. This meeting will include presentations by the Harvard
participants of the outline of the overall project and an opportunity to
discuss its content with the steering group. Dean Graham Allison and Judge
William Webster will co-chair this initial meeting.
Coordination and arrangements for all of these meetings are the
responsibility of the School's project staff.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
5
V. Training Programs
The next one-week training program for mid-level intelligence analysts
will be held at the Kennedy School the first week of November. Project
members have taken careful note of the participants' evaluations of the
first, experimental program, and are endeavoring to take account of their
primary concern that the cases and discussion more explicitly address the
role of intelligence assessment in policymaking. The discussions will also
attempt to draw mote directly on theexperience of the analysts
participating. Some existing cases will be modified for this program, and
new cases are being prepared.
VI. KSG Staff
The project is directed by Kennedy School faculty members Ernest May,
Richard Neustadt, Gregory Treverton, and Peter Zimmerman. Administrative
assistance is provided by Nancy Huntington; research coordinator is Lynn
Whittaker.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
STAT MEMORANDUM FOR:
STAT FROM:
SUBJECT:
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
18 November 1987
Chief, Media Relations, PAO
Office of Training and Education
Background Information on Harvard University
Program on Intelligence Assessment and Policy
1. The contract between CIA and Harvard University's John F. Kennedy
School of Government establishes a 3-year unclassified program of research
and training regarding intelligence and the policymaking process. The
long range goal of the Program on Intelligence Assessment and Policy is to
promote greater understanding by intelligence and policy professionals of each
other's world, values, and practices.
2. As Dean Allison has stated, "This is a path breaking venture for
both Harvard and the intelligence community." CIA and Harvard University
will be working together--openly and on an unclassified basis--to advance
the national security interests of the United States.
3. Exploratory talks for this new relationship began in early 1986,
including during the 13 February visit of Dr. Gates, then DDI, to Harvard to
deliver an address on "CIA and the University." Dr. Gates and the Kennedy
School faculty sought new programs that both the Agency and the University
believed fully met their interests, standards, and requirements.
4. The Program consists of the following elements:
A. A SEMINAR ON INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND DECISIONMAKING. The Seminar
will be held twice a year at Cambridge, for branch and division chiefs, mostly
from the Directorate of Intelligence, but also from other parts of the Agency
and Intelligence Community. The course features case studies on how policy
officials have related to the assessments of government experts in making key
decisions.
The initial running of the Seminar, under a special contract, was held
in March 1987. Intelligence managers from CIA, State/INR, DIA, NSA, National
Intelligence Council, and Intelligence Community Staff participated in the
1-7 November running of the Seminar.
B. INTELLIGENCE-SPECIFIC CASE STUDIES. The Kennedy School faculty is to
develop case studies to help identify what works and what doesn't in providing
effective analytic support to policy decisionmakers. The selected cases will
examine various patterns and challenges, such as how best to deliver "bad
news." Harvard will use these case studies in their programs for policymakers
as well as for intelligence analysts and managers. Intelligence Agencies will
be able to employ the case studies in their own training courses.
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
One case study already underway searches for the "lessons" in the
performance of the intelligence -communities of both the United States and
Israel regarding the 1967 Middle East War (which is thought of as an
intelligence "success" for both countries), and the 1973 Middle East War (which
is regarded as an intelligence "failure").
C. AN INTELLIGENCE-POLICY-ACADEMIC COUNCIL. Harvard will sponsor and
run a Council on Intelligence and Policy. A Steering Group will provide
general guidance to the overall Program. Working Groups of the Council will
meet several times per year, principally to review the case studies produced
under the contract.
Judge Webster and Dean Graham Allison will serve as Co-Chairmen of
the Council. The first meeting is scheduled for Washington in mid-December.
Both the Steering Group and the Working Groups will have representatives from
the academic and non-governmental communities as well as from intelligence
and policy organizations. Members of Congress and congressional staff members
will be invited to participate, along with representatives of the Executive
Branch.
D. OFFICER IN RESIDENCE PROGRAM, under which a CIA manager ios?alipeady"
at Harvard for a year to serve as a referant on the world of intelligence.
E. Expanded CIA participation in Kennedy School's midcareer and executive
programs, where again the findings of the case studies will be employed.
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
30 SEP 1987
OTE 87-6715
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Public Affairs
STAT FROM:
STAT
Director of Training and Education
SUBJECT: Request for Attendance of DCI and DDCI
at Kennedy School Function on 12 November
1. CIA has contracted with the Kennedy School of Government of
Harvard University for a program of activities in support of improved
relations between intelligence and policy officials. A key aspect of the
program is a Harvard-sponsored Council on Intelligence and Policy.
2. Kennedy School would like to launch the Council with a dinner
meeting in Washington, with both the DCI and DDCI in attendance. The
President of Harvard University and the Dean of Kennedy School would be
in attendance. The Secretaries of Defense and State, the National
Security Council Advisor, and the Directors of other Intelligence
Agencies would also be invited.
3. Kennedy School would like to extend-invitations to the DCI and
the DDCI for Thursday evening, 12 November, and has asked for my good
offices to ascertain their availability. I agree with their decision to
make every effort to have the DCI and the DDCI in attendance at the
inaugural meeting of this dramatic departure for both institutions
(Harvard and CIA working together in the national interest). Thus, if
12 November is not a suitable date, they will seek a date that is.
4. I am attaching a copy of my memorandum on the overall program,
with which the DDCI planned to brief the Director on this enterprise.
Please let me know how you see this working out.
Attachment
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
STAT
OTE 87-6713
1 6 SEP 19E7
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Executive Director
Deputy Director for Administration
Director of Training and Education
Kennedy School Program
1. The program you initiated for expanded relations between CIA and
Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government is ready to take off.
It is dedicated to increasing the understanding by intelligence and
policy professionals of each other's world, values and practices. The
program:
a. A SEMINAR ON INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND DECISIONMAKING
held twice a year at Cambridge for branch and division chiefs, mostly
from the Directorate of Intelligence, but also from other parts of
the Agency and Intelligence Community. The seminar features case
studies on how policy officials relate to government experts, and
includes units on the roles of both Congress and the media. The
first seminar was held in March 1987 under a special contract. The
second is scheduled for early November.
b. INTELLIGENCE-SPECIFIC CASE STUDIES undertaken by the
Kennedy School faculty to identify what works and what doesn't in
providing analytic support to policymakers. The selected cases will
examine various patterns, such as the deliverance of "bad news."
Harvard will use these in their programs for policymakers as well as
for us. Intelligence Agencies will be able to employ them in their
own training courses.
c. AN INTELLIGENCE-POLICY-ACADEMIC COUNCIL will meet twice per
year under Harvard's auspices to discuss recurring issues in policy
support (e.g., relevance and objectivity); and will also sponsor
working groups to review the case studies produced under the
program. The first meeting is tentatively scheduled for Washington
in late November. Kennedy School will invite both you and the DCI,
and is thinking about Frank Carlucci as keynote speaker.
d. OFFICER IN RESIDENCE PROGRAM, under which we already have a
CIA manager at Harvard for a year to serve as a referant on the world
of intelligence.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
IPP-- ?
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
STAT
S TAT-
S TAT
SUBJECT: Kennedy School Program
e. Expanded CIA participation in Kennedy School's midcareer
and executive programs, where again the findings of the case studies
will be employed.
2. The programs are covered by a three-year contract, with an
annual cost of some $400K. A good bit of defining and shaking down
remains. But it sure looks like a winner: CIA and Harvard University
working together in the national interest.
OTE/ITD:
DISTRIBUTION:
Orig - Addressee
1 - ExDir
1 - ExReg
1 - DDA
1 - D/OTE
1 - OTE Reg
1 - C/ITD/OTE
1 - ATB/ITD file
(16Sep87)
2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
_
ALLISON, GRAHAM TILLETT, JR., educator: h. Charlotte. N.C..?Mar. 23.
1940: s. Graham Tillett and Virginia (Wright) A.. m. Elisabeth Kovacs Smith.
Aug. 23. 1968. A.B.. Harvard U.. 1962. Ph.D.. 1%8: KA.. M.A.. Hertford
Coll.. Oxford (Eng) U.. 1964. Asst. prof. John F. Kennedy Sch. Govt..
Harvard U.. Cambridge. Mass.. 1968-70, asso. prof.. 1970-72. prof.. i972-.
asso. dean. 1975-77. dean. 1977---; fellow Center for Advanced Studies.
Stanford, Palo Alto. Calif.. 1973-74; asso. Ccntcr for Internat. Affairs. Har?ard
U.. cons. Rand Corp.. U.S. Dept. Def.. others.: mem. numerous Nat. Acad. Sci.
panels; mem. Trilateral Commn.. Council on Fgn. Relations.: mem. Fgri.
Affairs Task Force Democratic Adv. Com.. 1974-80: mem. vis. corn. on fgn
policy studies Brookings Instn. Author: Essence of Decision. 1971. Remaking
Foreign The Organizational Connection. 1976. Sharing International
Responsibility Among the Trilateral Countries. 1983. (with Carnesale and Nye)
Hawks. Doves and Owls: An Agenda for Avoiding Nuclear War. 1985: contbr
articles to pica jours. Home: 69 Pinehurst Rd Belmont MA 02178 Office: John
F Kennedy Sch Govt Harvard U 79 John F Kennedy St Cambridge MA 02138
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
ERNEST R. MAY
Charles Warren Professor
of History
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
May 1986
ERNEST RICHARD MAY
John F. Kennedy School of Government
79 Kennedy Street
Tel.: [phone]
Ernest R. May is an authority on American diplomatic history. He
has been professor of History since 1963. He was Dean of Harvard College
from 1969 to 1971 and Acting Associate Dean of the Faculty of Arts and
Sciences during the academic year 1971-72. He was Director of the Institute
of Politics from 1971 to 1974 and Chairman of the Department of History
from 1976 to 1979. In 1981 he was named Charles Warren Professor of History.
Born in Fort Worth, Texas, Professor May holds A.B. and Ph.D. degrees
from the University of California at Los Angeles. He is a member of the
Council on Foreign Relations and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts
and Sciences. He has been a consultant at various times to the office of the
Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Smith-
sonian Institution, and committees of the Congress.
His publications include "The World War & American Isolation 1914-17"
(1959), "The Ultimate Decision: The President as Commander in Chief" (1960),
"Imi3erial Democracy: The Emergence of America as a Great Power" (1961),
"American Imperialism: A Speculative Essay" (1968), "'Lessons' of the Past:
The Use and Misuse of History in American Foreign Policy" (1973), "The Making
of the Monroe Doctrine" (1975), and "A Proud Nation" (1983). He is author of
two volumes in the "Life History of the United States" (1964) dealing with
the years 1900-1929 and co-author of "Land of the Free" (1964), and "Careers
for Humanists" (1981). He was the general editor of the four-volume study of
"The American Image" (1963), and the co-editor of "American-East Asian Relations:
A Survey" (1972) and "Campaign '72: The Managers Speak" (1973). His most
recent publications are "Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment Before
the Two World Wars" (1985) and (with Richard E. Neustadt) "Thinking in Time:
The Uses of History for Decision-Makers" (1986).
In addition to teaching courses on the international relations of the
United States and the uses of history in public policy analysis, Professor
May has served as co-director of a project for developing careers in business
for Ph.D.'s in the humanities and social sciences and of a project for developing
a curriculum in historical analysis for schools of public administration and
business administration. He was chairman of an American Council of Learned
Societies-Social Science Research Council-Council on Library Resources Com-
mittee on the Records of Government. He is currently chairman of the committees
that oversee doctoral programs in the John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
RICHARD E. NEUSTADT
Richard E. Neustadt is Douglas Dillon Professor of Government in the John F.
Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He teaches in Harvard College
and in the Kennedy School's graduate programs of education for public service. From
1965 to 1975 he served as Professor of Government at Harvard and Associate Dean of the
Kennedy School. From 1966 to 1971 he was the first director of the Kennedy School's
Institute of Politics, which offers non-curricular programs for faculty and students
interested in politics and public policy. From 1978 to 1987, before assuming his
present chair, he held the Lucius N. Littauer professorship of public administration.
Born in Philadelphia, PA., on June 26, 1919, Professor Neustadt received the A.B.
degree from the University of California at Berkeley in 1939, and the M.A. degree from
Harvard in 1941. He received the Ph.D. degree from Harvard in 1951.
He became a Visiting Professor at Cornell University for the year 1953-54. From
1954 to 1965 he was Professor of Government at Columbia University. In 1961-62 he
visited at Nuffield College, Oxford University, and subsequently was an Associate
Member of the College (1964-67). He has lectured extensively in Britain on American
governmental subjects, and also at various times in Germany, India, Poland, and
Yugoslavia. In 1966 he delivered the William Radner Lectures at Columbia University.
In 1975 he visited Japan as the guest of International House. In 1976 he delivered the
William W. Cook Lectures at the University of Michigan. In 1978-79 he was a Fellow of
the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences. In 1986 he delivered the third
Brewster C. Denny Lecture at the University of Washington.
Professor Neustadt worked for the Office of Price Administration in 1942, then spent
four years in the U.S. Navy. From 1946 to 1950 he was a member of the Budget Bureau
staff. He then served as a member of President Truman's White House staff to 1953. In
1959 Professor Neustadt became a Consultant to the Jackson Subcommittee of the Senate on
National Security Staffing and Operations. In 1960 he served as a Special Consultant
to President-elect Kennedy, and in 1961 became a Consultant to the President, advising
on problems of government organization and operation at home and abroad. He served as
such under President Kennedy and again under President Johnson through 1966. At various
times during the 1960s Professor Neustadt also served as a consultant to the Bureau of
the Budget, the State and Defense Departments, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the Rand
Corporation. In 1952 and 1956 he served as staff and in 1972 as chair of the Platform
Committee for the Democratic National Convention. In 1977 he became a consultant to the
President's Reorganization Project in the Office of Management and Budget. The next year
he completed an administrative study for the Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare,
done in collaboration with Harvey V. Fineberg. This was published as The Swine Flu
Affair (1978) and republished as The Epidemic That Never Was (1983).
Professor Neustadt is known for his most recent book, Thinking in Time (with Ernest
R. May, 1986) and for two earlier books, Presidential Power (1960; rev. 1980), and
Alliance Politics (1970). He has written numbers of articles in scholarly journals on
aspects of the Presidency and on Anglo-American comparisons. He serves on the board of
the Harry S. Truman Library Institute. He is a member of the American Philosophical
Society, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a member of the American
Political Science Association, the National Academy of Public Administration, the Council
on Foreign Relations, and the Institute of Strategic Studies. He is a member of the
Cosmos Club in Washington.
In 1961 Presidential Power received the Woodrow Wilson Award of the American Political
Science Association. In 1983 Professor Neustadt received the Charles E. Merriam Award
of the same Association.
Professor Neustadt is a widower with two children, Elizabeth of Boston and Richard M.
of New York. He lives in Cambridge and Wellfleet, Massachusetts.
June 1987
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
Peter B. Zimmerman
Peter B. Zimmerman is Associate Dean and Director of Executive
Training and Program Development. His duties include coordinating
the development and operation of the School's training programs for
senior executives in government, the public management research and
case development programs. A graduate of the Kennedy School's Public
Policy Program, Mr. Zimmerman has worked for the Navy's Security
Council staff. He has consulted for the National Security Council,
the Murphy Commission, the Senate Intelligence Committee, and other
public and nonprofit organizations.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
,,:ir.C=1.ir$: .....re,;:l .,i.el...+',1 ::: ?? : V .". ".'.".^ ' ''', ' :', '? ',,,,. ,., '
'"-DAVg McCUR. DY;;Deincitrat'of Notnian'OK? barn in Canadian, .TX ? March, 30, _
, .
1950; attended-YUkOn, OK, public ,High 'School; 1968;'?B.A.; ..
. 1.974.D,;',1975,',Uni,:rfrsitY?:of OklahOMg:Rotary graduate .fellow; ',UniVeriiii?Of .:.Edin.:;:
burgh,,,Stiitlaiid,;4niernational ,economics, ;1977-78; , Captain, U.S. Air, Force .Reserve
lawyeq:admittedjo. the: Oklahoma 'State , Bat, in 1975 and commenced practice in:1975;;-
asSistant' attorney -general,:-State)Ol:Oklahoma, 1978-77; member, firm of Luttrell, ren-.:;
? darvis,7..it -\11awlinsoi,i; .-1978779;1;.p.rlvate-,practie;;`. 1979480;. - member: 'Rotary; ' Jaycees; ,
Chamber of ;,Commerce; - Young Liviyers,Diviskin of :the "Oklahoma . Bar Association; -
: University Lutheran Chapel of '10 'Outstanding Young 'Men of ? America by United::
fStates Jaycees, 1984; Chairman, CDM Task Force on Foreign Defense and Foreign Policy
.married-to the former Pamela Mary PlUMb:im.p.,._1971; ',three children: Joshua David,"
1-
CYcinE7Y+larie;:iiid ShaiMOneg?iiieti4ed icirgie97th Congress,' November 4;1980; ;rel.':
elected to each succeeding Congress. 4A ,1.., Ni.tv -i,.--,.... .-. ,
--.-? ,. - :',4 : N. :,r
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
WOOLSEY, ROBERT' JAMES, JR., lawyer; b. Tulsa. Sept. 21; 1941; s.
Robert James and Clyde (Kirby) W.; m:. Suzanne Haley. Aug. 15. 1965;
children-7-Robert Nathaniel, Daniel James, Benjamin Haley. B.A. with great
distinction, Stanford U.. 1963; M.A. (Rhodes scholar). Oxford (Eng.) U.. 1965;
LL.B.. Yale U., 1968. Bar: Calif. bar -1969. D.C. bar 1970. Atty. firm
O'Melveny & Myers. Los -Angeles. 1968; program analyst Office Sec. Def.,
?-Wa:shingkin. 1968-70, NSC.- Washington, 1970; gen. counsel Com. Armed
:--Services, U.S. Senate. 1970-73; asso. firm Shea & Gardner, Washington.
1973-77, partner. 1979?; undersec. of navy. 1977-79; advisor U.S. del.:SALT,
Helsinki and Vienna. 1969-70. Trustee Stanford U., 1972-74. Served with U.S.
Army, 1968-70. Danforth scholar. 1963; Woodrow Wilson fellow. 1963. Mem.
Council Fgn. Relations. Stanford Assos.. Phi Beta Kappa. Presbyn. Club:
Metropolitan (Washington). Home:-6808 Florida St Chevy Chase MD 20815
Office: Shea & Gardner 1800 Massachusetts Ave NW Washington-DC.20036
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
UlAINtk AlltNUttJ:
STAT
STAT
Members of the Steering Committee:
The Honorable William Webster
Dean Graham Allison
The Honorable Michael Armacost
Dr. Robert M. Gates
General David Jones
Mr. Richard J. Kerr
The Honorable Dave McCurdy
Lt. Gen. William E. Odom
The Honorable Caspar Weinberger
Mr. R. James Woolsey
Lt. Gen. Edward Heinz
Other Agency Guests:
James H. Taylor
William F. Donnelly
John Helgerson
William M. Baker
Kennedy School Project Members:
Professor Ernest R. May
Professor Richard Neustadt
Dr. Gregory F. Treverton
Associate Dean Peter Zimmerman
Ms. Lynn Whittaker
Director of Central Intelligence
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard
University
Undersecretary of State for Political
Affairs
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff
Deputy Director for Intelligence,
Central Intelligence Agency
U.S. House of Representatives
Director National Security Agency
former Secretary of Defense
former Undersecretary of the Navy
Director, Intelligence Community
Staff
Executive Director
Deputy Director for Administration
Associate Deputy Director for Intellience
Director of Training and Education
Office of Training and Education
Director, Public Affairs Office
Office of Training and Education
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
STEERING COMMITTEE
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT AND POLICY PROJECT
Co-Chairmen:
Dean Graham Allison, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Judge William Webster, Director of Central Intelligence
Invitees for Membership:
Morton I. Abramowitz, Assistant Secretary of State, Intelligence and
Research Bureau
Michael Armacost, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs
Senator Bill Bradley, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Counselor, Center for Strategic and International
Studies
Frank Carlucci, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs- Declined
Congressman Richard Cheney, House Select Committee on Intelligence
Robert Gates, Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Lt. Gen. Edward Heinz, Director of Intelligence Community Staff
William Hyland, Editor, Foreign Affairs - Declined
? Admiral Bobby Inman, Westmark Systems, Inc.
? Professor Robert Jervis, Columbia University
General David Jones, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Richard Kerr, Deputy Director for Intelligence, Central Intelligence
Agency
? Andrew Marshall, Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of
Defense
Congressman Dave McCurdy, House Select Committee on Intelligence
Senator Sam Nunn, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence - Declined
Lt. Gen. William Odom, Director of the National Security Agency
Lt. Gen. Leonard Perroots, Di'rector of the Defense Intelligence Agency
? James Schlesinger, Counsel, Center for Strategic and International Studies
General Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National
Security Affairs
George Shultz, Secretary of State - Declined
Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of Defense
James Woolsey, Shea & Gardner
? Will be a member of the Steering Committee, but unable to attend dinner 14 Dec.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
SP IR VI
John F. Kennedy
School of Government
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
NEWS
OFFICE OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS.. JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT ? 79 JOHN F. KENNEDY STREET ? CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 ? 6171495-1115
FOR INVIEDIATE RELEA'S
CONTACT: Steve Singer
Wednesday, December 2, 1987 617/495-1115
HARVARD_ANNOUNCES_PROGRAM.ON_INTET.LIGENCE_AND POLICY MAKING
CAMBRIDGE-- Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government
announced today a new program of research and training on intelligence
assessment and policy. The three-year program, which is sponsored by the
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, will be inaugurated at a dinner in
Washington on Monday, December 14, 1987.
Professor Ernest R. May, Charles Warren Professor of History at
Harvard and a distinguished military and diplomatic historian, is the
program director. Professor Richard E. Neustadt, Dr. Gregory F. Treverton
and Associate Dean Peter Zimmerman are other Harvard faculty participating
in the research.
"This is a path breaking venture for both Harvard and the intelligence
community," Professor May said. "In the modern world, our very lives
depend on effective assessment of foreign intelligence. We hope our
research will be illuminating to intelligence analysts and policymakers
alike."
"The overall purpose of the program is to help those who prepare
assessments of foreign events, and those who make foreign policy
decisions, better understand one another's needs, interests, cultures, and
perspectives," said Professor Neustadt. "In our country, the gap between
them has often been wide, with bad effects on foreign policy. Our hope is
that our research can make a modest contribution toward narrowing that
gap."
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT PROGRAM -- 2 2
The prograth has four components, including: preparation of a number
of case studies examining how intelligence assessments were made, how they
were communicated to policymakers and with what results; meetings with
current and past officials to discuss possible lessons of these cases;
twice a year, one-week executive training sessions for senior analysts
seeking to make the work of the intelligence community more useful in
policymaking; and an intelligence analyst, who will participate in the
project and who will be one of the school's research associates in
national security.
The program will be launched at the inaugural meeting of the program's
steering group, which will advise on the research agenda and serve as a
resource for the program. The group includes a number of current and
former members of Congress, cabinet officers and other government
officials with oversight, policy, and intelligence responsibilities.
None of the work associated with the program will involve any
classified information. The work is consistent with university policy and
the principles of academic freedom, and all research products and rAqP
studies will be freely available for use at Harvard and elsewhere,
according to program officials.
"As with all other research at this university, our ultimate aim is
increased public understanding," said Professor Neustadt.
The three-year program is funded at approximately $400,000 per year.
Other national security seminars offered by the School include the
eight-week Program for Senior Officials in National Security, and the
two-week Program in National and International Security. The School also
conducts a short Defense Policy Seminar in Washington twice a year.
--30--
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
oI III ,ymni rtibt
CIA says it will fund
Harvard research projett
By George Jahn
Associated Press
BOSTON ? The CIA has agreed to
lift some of the secrecy surrounding
programs it funds at universities by
acknowledging for the first time that
it is financing a major project at a
Harvard institute, officials said yes-
terday.
And, also for the first time,. the
.agelicy will permit unrestricted pub-
lishing of results.
The S1.2 million project at the John
? F'. Kennedy School of Government
will begin Dec. 14. associate dean
Peter Zimmerman said.
It wilt try to bridge "the large gap
between the assessments, of foreign
situations done by the intelligence
analysts ... and the foreign policy
decision-makers." project member
Richard E. Neustadt said.
1 think this can be-seen as a small
victory for academia and in favor of
more openness in discussing histori-
cal issues that have nonetheless
been quite sensitive and have not
been open .to scholarly research,"
Zimmerman said.
CIA spokesman Bill Devine con--
firmed that the CIA had never before
agreed to go public with news of
university research or allowed free
publishing of program conclusions.
It took more than eight months of
negotiations for the two sides to
agree on the program, officials said.
"The reason it took so long was
because... we are not in the. habit of
having such open contracts," Devine
said in a telephone interview. "Most
of our work is done on contracts that
are kept secret, and that's thevay it's
been done for years."
Deputy CIA Director Robert M.
Gates approved the project, he said.
The three-year program will have
four components: preparation of case
studies on how intelligence assess-
ments were made; seminars with
government officials to discuss intel-
ligence decisions; - three one-week
training sessions for senior analysts,
and the participation of a CIA ana-
lyst.
It will be directed by 'Ernest R.
May, the Charles Warren Professor
of History at Harvard.- Professor
Gregory F. Tieverton and Zimmer-
man also wilt participate: in the re-
search.
Some information could be declas-
sified because of the program, al-
though-that was not its primary pur-
pose, Neustadt and Zimmerman said.
"We're hoping that in some in-
stances we can get some material
declassified," Zimmerman said. "One
of our strict rules is we will not sign
any contracts that require for any-
body on staff to have access to classi-
fied information."
The New York Times
The Washington Times
The Wall Street Journal
The Christian Science Monitor
New York Daily News
USA Today
The Chicago Tribune
PihI4Pap64 fmvpAri 24
Date .ri...41Le. )1' 7
Page
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R00070090000471
The New York Times A 14
The Washington Times
The Wall Street Journal
C.I.A. Aids Harvard Study
on Intelligence Policy
By MARTIN TOLCHIN
Special to The New York Times
, WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 ? The John
F. Kennedy School of Government at
Harvard Univesity announced today
that the Central Intelligence Agency
had provided $400,000 for a three-year
program of research and training on
intelligence assessment and policy.
The program will have four compo-
nents: preparation of case studies ex-
amining how intelligence assessments
were made; meetings with current and
former officials to discuss possible les-
sons of these cases; one-week execu-
tive training sessions, held twice a
year, for senior analysts, and the par-
ticipation of an intelligence analyst.
None of the lkork will involve infor-
mation classified for security reasons.
"The work is consistent with univer-
sity policy and the principles of aca-
demic freedom," the school said in a
statement, "and all research products
and case studies will be freely avail-
able for use at Harvard and else-
where."
'Knowing Your Own Government'
The program will be directed by Er-
nest R. May, the Charles Warren Pro-
fessor of History at Harvard. Prof.
Richard E. Neustadt, Dr. Gregory F.
Treverton and Associate Dean Peter
Zimmerman will also participate in the
research.
Professor Neustadt said in an inter-.
view that the program was an out-
growth of a recent book he had written
with Professor May, "Thinking in
Time: The Uses of History for Decision
Making."
"A couple of years ago," Professor-
Neustadt said, "we started a course
called Foreign Assessment, dealing
specifically with the problem of how
you think about another government !
when you have something specific in
mind that you want to do with it, or to it,
or you think it might want to do with or
to you."
"As we see it, it's a double problem,"
he added. "It's not just a problem of
looking at the other government, but
also a problem of knowing your own
government, and what's on the minds
of decision makers. We think that the
second task is much harder than the
first one."
Other national security seminars of-
fered by the Kennedy school include an
eight-week program for senior officials
in national security and a two-week
program in natinal and international
! security.
The Christian Science Monitor
New York Daily News
USA Today
The Chicago Tribune ?
Page
3.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
HARVARD UNIVERSITY GAZETTE, December 4, 1987.
Intelligence Policy Program
Announced at Kennedy School
A new program of research and
training on intelligence assessment
_and policy has been announced by
the John F. Kennedy School of Gov-
ernment (KSG). The three-year pro-
gram, sponsored by the US Central
Intelligence Agency, will be inaugu-
rated at a dinner in Washington on
Monday, December 14.
Ernest R. May, Charles Warren
Professor of History, is the program
director. Professor Richard E. Neus-
tadt, Dr. Gregory F. Treverton and
KSG Associate Dean Peter Zimmer-
man are also participating in the
research.
"This is a path-breaking venture
for both Harvard and the intelligence
community," May said. "In the mod-
ern world, our very lives depend on
effective assessment of foreign intel-
ligence. We hope our research will
be illuminating to intelligence ana-
lysts and policy makers alike."
"The overall purpose of the pro-
gram is to help those who prepare
assessments of foreign events and
those who make foreign policy deci-
sions better understand one another's
needs, interests, cultures, and per-
spectives," said Neustadt. "In our
country, the gap between them has
often been wide, with bad effects on
foreign policy. Our hope is that our
research can make a modest contri-
bution toward narrowing that gap."
The program has four compo-
nents, including: preparation of a
number of case studies examining
how intelligence assessments were
made, how they were communicated
to policymakers and with what re-
sults; meetings with current and past
officials to discuss possible lessons
of these cases; twice a year, one-
week executive training sessions for
senior analysts seeking to make the
work of the intelligence community
more useful in policymaking; and an
intelligence analyst, who will partic-
ipate in the project and who will be
one of the school's research asso-
ciates in national security.
The program will be launched at
the inaugural meeting of the pro-
gram's steering group, which will ad-
vise on the research agenda and
serve as a resource for the program.
The group includes a number of cur-
rent and former members of Con-
gress, cabinet officers, and other gov-
ernMent officials with oversight, pol-
? icy, and intelligence responsiblities.
None of the work associated with
the program will involve any classi-
fied information. The work is consis-
tent with University policy and the
principles of academic freedom, and
all research products and case stud-
ies will be freely available for use at
Harvard and elsewhere, according to
program officials.
"As with all other research at this
Univprsity, our ultimate aim is in-
creased public understanding,"
Neustadt said.
The three-year program is funded
at approximately $400,000 per year.
Other national security seminars
offered by the KSG include the
eight-week Program for Senior Offi-
cials in National Security, and the
two-week Program in National and
International Security. The school
also conducts a short Defense Policy
Seminar in Washington twice a year.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
VIAJDZ, baturaay, vecemper 1987
CIA waives secrecy rule
for $1m Harvard study
By Ross Gelbspan
and Jerry Ackerman
Globe Staff
In a major policy departure, the
US Central Intelligence Agency
-has agreed to accept Harvard Uni-
yersity's guidelines and waive its
traditional secrecy requirements
for a research project it will fund
at the John F. Kennedy School of
Government.
: The three-year, $1.2 million
'project, announced yesterday, will
examine why intelligence assess-
ments are frequently ignored, mis-
construed or overridden by US for-
eign policy decision-makers.
The agency's shift follows eight
months of negotiations that fo-
cused on Harvard's guidelines, set
by university president Derek
Bok, that bar faculty members
I HARVARD
Continued from Page 1
In a telephone interview.
The project will be adminis-
tered by Ernest May, a history
professor; Richard Neustadt. a
professor of government and one-?
time aide to former President Ken-
nedy: Gregory F. Treverton, a lec-
turer in foreign policy at the Ken-
nedy school, and Peter Zimmer-
man. associate dean at the Kenne-
dy school.
The fall of the shah of Iran, the
more recent Iran-contra affair and
the collapse of, the Marcos regime
-in the Philippines may be among
,Sises to be studied; Neustadt said
in a telephone interview last
Subject choices, however, will
depend in part on whether the CIA
allows access to case files, he said.
"They may declare that some in-
formation can't be made avail-
able," he said.
May said he and Neustadt be-
lieve that communication difficul-
ties between intelligence special-
ists and policy-makers seem
phronic and may be rooted in both
sides failing to understand how
:the other thinks.
- Describing the CIA's need for
?Suchr,a,study, Devine said: "It is
from accepting government con-
tracts requiring that either the ex-
istence or the results of the work
be kept secret.
The CIA has traditionally in-
sisted that all its contracts with
research institutions - as well as
the results of such sponsored re-
search - be kept secret.
CIA spokesman Bill Devine
said CIA deputy director .Robert
Gates decided to approve the un-
classified project "because Har-
vard wanted it that way."
But Devine said the agency re-
garded the contract as an experi-
ment, rather than a precedent.
"Whether we will fund other open.
declassified university programs
in the future depends on our ex-
perience with this effort." he said
HARVARD, Page 26
ironic that we have analysts and
case officers who can describe the
workings of foreign governments
- and how policy is made around
the world - and still have little
knowledge of how such policy is
made in this country. The purpose
of the project is to make people
smarter about how to use intelli-
gence analysis in formulating US
foreign policy."
Devine noted that case studies
of differing intelligence assess-
ments can be conducted without
compromising sensitive informa-
tion. "Experienced researchers
can separate out the information
and analysis and still protect in-
telligence sources and methods at
the same time. It's a fine line, but
there are experienced, sophisticat-
ed people in the program," he add-
ed.
The Kennedy school project
will also include six seminars for
CIA executives to discuss the his-
toric cases that May, Neustadt
and Treverton will prepare. Two
such seminars were held on a pilot
basis in the last academic year.
May said.
In a debate about academic
freedom and sponsored research
two years ago, Gates said he
doubted the agency could enter
into open contracts with universi-
ty researchers, according to John
Shattuck, a Harvard vice presi-
dent and former legislative coun-
sel for the American Civil Liber-
ties Union.
Shattuck, a longtime specialist
In academic freedom and govern-
ment secrecy, speculated that
Gates' recent approval of the open
contract with Harvard may reflect
a new approach to the academic'
community by CIA Director Wil-
liam Webster. Webster, former
FBI director, took over the reins of
the agency several months ago,
following the death of former CIA
chief William Casey.
The agreement "Is a harbinger
of new directions for the CIA in its
relations with the academic
world," Shattuck said.
Shattuck explained that Har-
vard's guidelines require that e-
ery research grant the university
accepts be publicly disclosed: that
no sponsored research involve
classified information: and that
all results of sponsored research
be available for open publication
and distribution.
The director of Harvard's Cen-
ter for Middle Eastern Studies, Na-
day Safran, was forced to quit his
post two years ago after it was
learned he had secretly accepted
$150,000 in grants from the CIA
and had given the agency the
right to censor his wory.
Declassified in Part-Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
THE NEW YORK TIMES, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1987
C.I.A. Aids Harvard Study on Intelligence Policy
By MARTIN TOLCHIN
Special to The New York Times
, WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 ? The John
.F. Kennedy School of Government at
Harvard Univesity announced today
that the Central Intelligence Agency
had provided $400,000 for a three-year
program of research and training on
intelligence assessment and policy.
The program will have four compo-
nents: preparation of case studies ex-
amining how intelligence assessments
were made; meetings with current and
former officials to discuss possible les-
sons of these cases; one-week execu-
tive training sessions, held twice a
year, for senior analysts, and the par-
ticipation of an intelligence analyst.
None of the y)ork will involve infor-
mation classified for security reasons.
"The work is consistent with univer-
sity policy and the principles of aca-
demic freedom," the school said in a
statement, "and all research products
and case studies Will be freely avail-
able for use at Harvard and else-
where."
'Knowing Your Own Government'
The program will be directed by Er-
nest R. May, the Charles Warren Pro-
fessor of History at Harvard. Prof.
Richard E. Neustadt, Dr. Gregory F.
Treverton and Associate Dean Peter
Zimmerman will also participate in the
research.
Professor Neustadt said in an inter-
view that the program was an out-
growth of a recent book he had written
with Professor May, "Thinking in
Time: The Uses of History for Decision
Making."
"A couple of years ago," Professor
l'sleustadt said, "we started a course
called Foreign Assessment, dealing
specifically with the problem of how
you think about another government
when you have something specific in
mind that you want to do with it, or to it,
or you think it might want to do with or
to you."
"As we see it, it's a double problem,"
he added. "It's not just a problem of
looking at the other government, but
also a problem of knowing your own
government, and what's on the minds
of decision makers. We think that the
second task is much harder than the
first one."
Other national security seminars of-
fered by the Kennedy school include an
eight-week program for senior officials
in national security and a two-week
program in natinal and international
security.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14 : CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1
it to r una iv-ncnoat rroject
Terms of $400KGrantMade Public InNovelArrangernent
By. NOAM S. (701IEN
The Central Intelligence Agency
will fund a $400,000 Kennedy School
.of Government research project to
assess how ' policy makers use the
agency's intelligence information, the
school announced yesterday.
The three-year long project, organ-
ized by faculty members Warren
Professor of History Ernest May and
Dillon Professor of Government
Richard Neustadi and K-School
Lecturer Gregory F. Treverton, is
being called a major change in CIA-
university relations, because the
research will be made public and the
intelligence agency will be identified
as the funder of the project.
"The funding is totally above board
and the results will. be unclassified,"
Kennedy School Dean Graham T.
Allison '62 said last night. Public
acknowledgement of funding and
unclassified results are . "unprece:
dented [for the CIA!, but a necessary
condition for University research,"
the dean said.
. In recent years President .Bok and
other academics have expressed
concern over the ethics of scholars
agreeing to not disclose their CIA
funding and allowing the agency to
make changes in manuscripts.
According to Kennedy school offi-
c,int untied trout p:q.?.e I )
will nese'. et enough material we
need to understand the process."
Neustadt said.
In recent years, Harvard and the
agencv have clashed over traditional
HARVARD CRIMSON,
Friday, Dec. 4, 1987
cials Bok and other top University
administrators had no misgivings
about the recently finalized contract
with the agency.
Under the terms Qf this grant, the
project will fund the publication of
case studies and the training fOr
senior CIA analysts. The grant also
will he used to pay for a CIA analyst
to become a research associate at
Harvard this January.
Kennedy School officials said the
school negotiated with the CIA for
more than a year to convince the
agency to break with its normal
policy of keeping all research
contracts and their results secret. The
agency approved the Harvard
contract on a "non-precedent" basis,
officials said.
Openness the Issue
"In the negotiations !opennessj has
been one of the toughest issues," said
Associate Dean Peter Zimmerman,
who will help administer the program.
"It is harder to deal with th4 policy
because Harvard has an invariable
policy. Eighty percent of the discus-
sions with the CIA were about
openness."
Under the terms of the agreement,
which will be inaugurated at a
Washington; D.C. dinner later this
month, for two weeks each year
restrictions placed on research funded
by CIA grants. These restrictions
include pre-publication review of
hooks and a requirement that
.
contracts must remain secret.
In January 1980 Albertson Proks-
sor of Middle Eastern Studies Nadav
Sa Iran resigned as director of
Harvard's Center for Middle Eastern
Studies after his acceptance of more
than $150,000 in CIA grants became
public. In one of the contracts. Safran
agreed to give the agency pre-
publication review and the right to
censor his work, and agreed to keep
the contract secret.
Soon after the uproar about the
Salon disclosures. Deputy Director
for Intelligence Robert M. Gates gave
a speech at the K-School indicating
that ,the agency had to be more
accommodating of academic rules,
like Harvard's, which require public
disclosure of research funding. He
said that it would he up to individual
Kennedy school faciiliy will hol!1
"executive training sessions," kir
senior CIA analysts. The rest of the
grant will support the creation of cite
studies.
Neustadt said he and May will
publish the research in a book. Neus-
tadt said he expects to study such
recent liireign policy intelligence
activities as those in the Phillipines
and in Iran. The former aide to
President Harry S Truman said he did
I not think the research would he
completed in three years and that the
arrangement with the CIA may need
to be extended.
"We have hopes that over a long
period of time we will learn enough
and get enough case material declas-
sified to sharply illustrate very simple
questions" about how policy-ill-pikers
use CIA fact gathering, said Netistadt.
As an example, the professor
'pointed to a famous incident during
the Korean War, where a military
strategist ignored the advice of his
intelligence officers. .
"It lead to the longest retreat in
American Military history," Neustadt
said. '
"Without some people on the inside
saying 'help these people because
they will help the government,' we
(continued on page 6)
he publicly acknowledged.
Allison said the K-School's
contract was a natural progression
from Gates' accommodating
'language in that 1986 speech.
It is an encouraging sign that
Gates came here to take one step and
now we have taken another," Allison
said.
According to organizers of the
Kennedy School program, negotia-
fions began with Gates during his
February, 1986 visit.
Prompted by the Safran case, Presi-
dent Bok wrote an open letter to the
Harvard community in November of
that year, saying that professors had
to disclose whether a work of scho-
larship was Subject to pre-publication
review.
According to Neustadt Bok
approved the agreement and "didn't.
think that it was a turn-around" from
his earlier statements.
Bok could not be reached for
scholars whether CIA funding would comment.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700900004-1