PROJECTION OF MANPOWER NEEDS RETENTION AND AVAILABILITY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00423R000200170014-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 21, 2008
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: May 24, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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24 May 1984
MEMORAN{l-UM-- FOR :
Richard J. Kerr
Associate Deputy-Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT Projection of Manpower Needs, Retention, and
Availability
REFERENCE Your Memorandum to Steering Group on Personnel,
dated 14 May 1984
The Mix of Skills in the DI
The Personnel On Duty
In broad categories the mix of skills of the personnel now
in the DI break out as follows:
Analysts
Analysts Support
Managers
Administrative
Other
The specific expertise of these individuals is indicated in
the computer printouts attached at Annex.
Hard-to-Get-Categories
The Directorate has been pressing a recruitment drive in
recent months aimed at finding well-qualified applicants in
virtually every major field. A study by the DI Planning and
Management Staff last December identified the following as
expecially hard-to-get categories: economists (for both market
and command economies), econometricians, physical scientists,
engineers, computer programmers, systems analysts, military
analysts, and Soviet and Eastern European specialists.
The DI does not anticipate any major change in the mix of
skills required in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but the
buildup of ADP support we have been carrying out in recent years
will continue. We will need'additional ADP-skilled personnel to
work on the greatly increasing flow of data from enhanced
collection systems.
All Portions of This Memo CLBY SIGNER
Are Classified SECRET DECL OADR
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The DI move up the technology ladder in terms of information
processing will have an impact on our recruiting as we will have
to compete for an increasingly scarce resource of young experts
also in great demand in the_ private sector. We know that the
size of th"e'age gro.up from which we hire most of our people (20-
.29) is expected to shrink by about 20 percent in the next 15
years -- from 43 million to less than 35 million.
DI Attrition
The DI has experienced a substantial increase in the rate of
attrition over the past year or so.
The Statistics
? From FY 1979 through FY 1982 DI net attrition averaged
5.7 percent per year.*
? In FY 1983 DI attrition increased to 8.1 percent.
? In the first half of FY 1984 attrition rose further to
an annualized rate of more than 10 percent.
In the DI professional category the rate has increased
steadily:
FY
81
3.9
FY
82
4.3
FY
83
7.3
FY
84
8.6
(rate for first half of
fiscal year annualized)
The DI professional rate had not previously been over 8
percent since 1980. At that time special "early out" provisions
may have resulted in a considerable number of retirements. The
following table provides additional detail:
*In deriving the DI rate the Office of Personnel includes
calculations which take account of both separations from the
Agency (retirements, resignations, etc.) and transfers between
the DI and other Agency,components. EOD inputs are not factored
in.
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DI Net Attrition
Professional Technical
Clericals
Total
FY 79
4.04
5.56
4.65
4.17
FY 80
8.39
11.11
5.59
7.7
FY 81
3.86
-5.88*
13.3
6.08
FY 82
4.27
-7.08
15.76
4.93
FY 83
7.29
5.26
14.08
8.14
FY 84
8.62
10.44
(1st half
annualized)
The Reasons For It
The DI Planning and Management Staff completed a study of DI
personnel losses in March, which included a fairly detailed
survey of the component offices regarding the reasons for the
attrition. One of the main sets of findings -in the study notes
that of professionals who left DI component offices during FY 25X1
1983:
left the Agency.
moved to another DI Office.
moved to another part of the Agency.
Another set of findings notes the following reasons given by
the offices for the professional departures:
n
aissatiisraczion witn some aspect of fob.
We believe that several factors may lie behind these
statistics:
o In recent years a number of developments have combined
to make service in the US Government in general less
attractive, compared to the private sector. These.
include such things as shortfalls in cost-of-living pay
*The negative rates reflect in part the upgrading of certain
clerical positions to technical status.
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increases, the lack of raises in special allowances for
highly skilled engineers, better benefits packages
outside government, publicity over possible government
retirement adjustments -- especially the
Administration's aim of shifting the retirement age to
65-..--This--negative-federal- employee milieu has certainly
had its -impact-on the Di attrition situation.
o Another contributing factor has been the sweeping
reorganization of the DI in October of 1981. On balance
the benefits have been substantial -- especially in
terms of the production of integrated, interdisciplinary
analysis -- but there have been costs as well. Some DI
personnel have found it difficult to adjust to the
changes, and the changes have also resulted in the
identification of a number of marginal or unsatisfactory
performers.
o Soon after the reorganization the DI adopted a much
more rigorous and disciplined approach to the planning,
review, and production of research. While this has
fostered a sense of pride in accomplishment for many DI
personnel, once again a number have found it difficult
to adapt.
o Some DI managers doubtless made mistakes. We believe
these came in the implementation both of the
reorganization and the new accountability for
production. In part this resulted from the inherent
difficulties in mixing together individuals from quite
different office cultures. There were differences among
our personnel in terms of values -- what are the best
forms of intelligence production? -- and in terms of
management styles. In some cases, managers may have
been too intolerant of diversity, and of the different
backgrounds of personnel. These issues have been
recognized, however, and the DI is moving forward to
consolidate the new organization and build a new
consensus on basic professional values. One example is
the system of functional advisory panels which have been
established to look out for the interests of analysts
from certain disciplines.
Effects
The DI attrition over the past year has co uted to a
shortfall of on-duty strength. The DI has some personnel on 25X1
board as of late May; it has taken extensive measures to bolster
recruitment and currently has some 0 individuals in process or 25X1
requested to be put in process. The Directorate almost certainly
will not be at its full FY 1984 ceiling of by 30 25X1
September. We will require the utmost coopers ion and support
from the Offices of Personnel, Security, and Medical Services to
move these applicants through the process and bring them board.
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Until now the effect of attrition on the efficiency and
productivity of the Directorate has not been great. There has
probably been some improvement insofar as certain individuals who
felt highly uncomfortable with the reorganization have left. If
attritiof' should --cantinue''at the current rate for an extended
period, however, we believe it-would have a deleterious impact on
the Directorate. The departure of experienced officers, in
particular, could be harmful in an organization which already has
many new and inexperienced hands, and which will be getting many
more newcomers over the next several years as we build toward the
target of someF positions by 1987.
. rr
Attachments:
As stated
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1~. M1 tsbG .
MEMORANDUM. FOR: Members, Steering Group on Personnel
FROM:
SUBJECT: Projections of.Manpower Needs,
Retention, and Availability
-1. On further reflection and consultation after the
Steering Group meeting on 7 May, I have concluded that we need a
shortened version of the three-phased manpower study called for
in the Addendum to the Strategic Plan. A variation on the first
two phases -- projections of the mix of skills needed and poo.1 of
talent available in the out years -- will form an indispensable
foundation upon which to base programs and actions designed to
improve.our. competitive position in the future. As a result of
the meeting, I now also conclude that surveys by the Directorates
of their individual experiences with and-,projections concerning
attrition and the reasons for it would berimportant adjuncts to
the study originally planned.
2. Accordingly, I am asking each of the Directorates to
complete '.by 8 June a report on:
? the mix of skills each now has available, and an
indication of shortfalls in hard to get categories;*
? the mix of skills that will be needed in the out yea,
late 1980s and early 1990s -- with emphasis on skillsrs
expected to be in short supply and those which may be unique
to the out-year time frame. In this connection, particular
attention should be paid to the expected impact of
technology on the work place; and
? the.experience that each has had in recent years with
attrition, the reasons for it, the effects of it on the
individual Directorate, and projections regarding its.
expected effect on efficiency and productivity in the
future.
*To make it easier to collate the results, cateeories_such as
electronic engineer, physical scientist, economist, computer
prograrrrner, and the like should be used to the extent possible,
with an even more precise breakdown in the case of particularly
unique specialties.
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?. i am also Asking the DDA to complete by 8 June a survey
of demographic work already done within. the Agency and elsewhere
in government and selected private industries regarding the
categories, size, and quality of the pool of talent pertinent to
our needs expected.._.to_be_.available. in the United States in the
out years.. We may. hope to draw.conc.lus'ions from such a survey
regarding our long-term prospects for recruitment in certain
specialties as well as our prospects for retaining employees in
projected areas of critical shortage.
4. With the results of the above surveys shared among us,
would expect to hold another meeting of the Steering Group on
Personnel in mid-June to discuss them and to map out what the
next steps should be.
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