BRIEF ON PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT INITIATIVES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00423R000200150047-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: February 29, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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29 February 1984
NOTE FOR: ADDI
SUBJECT: Brief on Production Enhancement Initiatives
1. On 28 FebruarvJ hriefM thP ST AP on production enhancement
initiatives (were present as advisors.
answered some questions on specific project details that could not.
STAT
STATAT
STAT
2. For your information, two points were raised repeatedly by STAP members: there
does not seem to be enough time or money to develop some projects or themes. Comparisons
in both cases were made to exploratory funding in private industry.
3. It may be helpful to the DCI if the IPC discusses areas of potential payoff and
examines a little more carefully cooperative efforts and truly innovative areas for funding
before the next round of project submissions. If you agree, please sign the accompanying
memoranda.
STAT
Intelligence Producers Council Staff
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INTELLIGENCE PRODUCERS COUNCIL
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Production Enhancement Initiatives
1VIAR
19834
1. Action Requested: None. For your information only.
2. Background: The Science and Technology Advisory Panel (STAP) invited the
Intelligence Producers Council Staff to brief them on the production enhancement program.
The attached material was prepared as background for the brief and provides an informal,
historic summary of the program.
During the briefing, some of the members of the STAP expressed concern about the
short (two year) life of an initiative and the relatively small amount of money applied to the
program. Comparisons were made to exploratory funding in private industry. It is not
known, however, whether the STAP will communicate these concerns to you.
3. IPC Action: In preparation for the FY 1986 production enhancement submissions,
the Intelligence Producers Council plans to meet this summer to discuss truly innovative
projects and the level of Community cooperation in order to obtain the maximum benefit
from the program.
micnara J. -err
Chairman
Attachment:
as stated
cc: DDI
Executive Director
COVERING MEMORANDUM IS UNCLASSIFIED
WHEN ATTACHMENT IS REMOVED
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Intelligence Producers Council
SUBJECT: Production Enhancement Initiatives
MAR
1984
1. The attached material was prepared as background for an IPC Staff briefing to the
DCI's Science and Technology Advisory Panel, and is provided for your information.
2. In anticipation of the next round of production enhancement submissions, I propose
that we discuss during the summer IPC meeting the types of projects that would best serve
the interests of the DCI and the producers. In doing this, we should seek truly innovative
opportunities that are not likely to be covered by regular program plans. I believe the advice
of the DCI Production Committee Chairmen would also be helpful in this endeavor.
Richard J. Kerr
Chairman
Attachment:
as stated
COVERING MEMORANDUM IS UNCLASSIFIED
UPON REMOVAL OF ATTACHMENT
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28 February 1984
PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM
Background
In 1979, Admiral Turner, then DCI, set up a program for the direct enhancement of
the quality of analysis or exploitation. His guidance was, and continues to be under Mr.
Casey, that managers and analysts search for new, innovative, and speculative ways to
improve analytic production. Projects should have a high payoff, a modest cost, and show
cross-program cooperation. No manpower augmentation would be authorized. This
means that much of the work is done by contract. Projects are to be considered outside
of regular submissions, and would be add-ons to approved programs. The projects would
be funded for two years and then, if successful enough to be continued, included in
regular funding by the program manager. Items at risk in regular programs would be
considered as well.
The basic guidance has changed little under the direction of Mr. Casey. Project
submissions are now also matched with the DCI's goals and objectives. In addition, Mr.
Casey has made known his particular interests in several areas--terrorism, technology
transfer, political instability, and narcotics.
The Process
A production enhancement initiative is a request for funds to perform a task or
series of tasks to improve some aspect of the production process. Most of the tasks
depend heavily upon external research, in the form of academic experts, ADP specialists,
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organizations with sophisticated technical facilities, or a combination of those
components.
The production enhancement submissions are tied to the regular budget cycle. This
means that program managers receive a budget call for projects in June and make their
submissions to the budget director in September for the next fiscal year. The proposals
are reviewed by the Intelligence Producers Council and Community experts, with
recommendations forwarded to the DCI in early November. Once the DCI approves the
projects, the package is sent to the budget director to be incorporated in the NFIP
budget. The funds, when appropriated, are subsequently transferred to the appropriate
program manager. Unless there is a major discrepancy, the budget director will more or
less automatically incorporate the second year funding into the NFIP budget.
With respect to the justification of a project, the proposal is supposed to be
sensitive to the DCI's guidance. It is reviewed by the Program Manager and usually given
a priority. After the program manager sends his package to the budget director, it is
collated and forwarded to the IPC Staff for substantive evaluation. The Staff makes the
first review-to test the proposals against the DCI guidelines and to assign the projects
to expert evaluators, such as to one or more of the DCI Production Committees. Each
participating agency of the IPC receives a complete package for review and comment.
In some cases individual experts or groups are sought, such as a NIO, the DCI's Foreign
Language Training Committee or a Collection Committee. The evaluators are charged
to examine the project in terms of its utility to the Community, and whether it would
duplicate other work in progress, funded, or recently completed-as well as the basic DCI
guidance mentioned earlier.
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The IPC Staff receives all the comments and places the PEIs in two categories:
recommended and not recommended. For the FY 1984 package, a third category--
marginal--was added because, while the topics were important and gave the DCI more
options, they failed to meet one of the guidelines. A completed package is then
assembled with a general order of priority and forwarded to the IPC principals for final
review and comment. It is then sent to Mr. McMahon and Mr. Casey. The ranking of
recommended projects has only some influence on the DCI's decisions--since he chooses
whatever he wants. In 'the past he has rejected two entire packages (in FY 83 the
program was suspended and last fall (1983) a second round of proposals was required), and
he also picked a project from a "not recommended" group because he wanted that topic
to be addressed. In that case, the program manager modified his project to make it
conform to the DCI's criteria.
The merits of proposals recommended for approval are usually quite evident. The
failings of proposals vary widely: some proposals are too vague or brief to be helpful.
Others are duplicative, or have narrow objectives that go no farther than an analysts'
desk. In a number of instances the project sponsor was asked to provide additional
information-at least enough to make sense of the project.
Once the DCI has approved a package, all participants are informed and the budget
director takes over on the fiscal side. In the months before a project is scheduled to
start, the IPC Staff meets with the project sponsor to get an overview briefing that
includes the milestones.
At the end of. the first year of a project, an evaluation is conducted which again
involves the appropriate production committees. The evaluators are asked to assess the
benefit of the project to the Community--to the extent possible. The IPC Staff then
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prepares a report to the DCI on the status of the various projects, the costs and benefits
to date, and any problems. An evaluation report is also made at the end of the DCI's
two-year funding cycle on the success of the project.
In the future, with respect to the evaluation process, the STIC and the WSSIC will
be invited to look at all projects and also the IPC Staff will seek to get a briefing from
the project sponsors at some time during the cycle.
Since its inception, there have been a total of 40 projects approved for funding.
Only the success rate of the first two years of projects can be reported upon. In many
projects, several tasks are involved and more than one application can be identified (see
Tab). To date 18 of 25 projects have received additional funds by sponsors or cooperative
contributions, or have been integrated into regularly funded programs. Work was
completed on three projects for which no follow-on funding was identified--an academic
research project and two equipment purchases for production support. Two projects were
aborted-an interagency analysis group and R&D forecasting-and two were funded but
not under this program. Because of contracting delays, some projects started in FY 1982
have not been completed.
The benefits from these projects to date include such items as:
I. System designs for improved data base and information handling.
2. Simulation models.
3. Report generators.
4. Centralized files and integrated files.
5. Rocket motor test results to improve assessments of Soviet rocket motor thrust
levels.
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7. An improved DOD intelligence production data base, including workloads, production
responsibilities files, product deficiency files, manpower and functional management
files.
8. Twelve research papers on Chile, Yugolsavia, Brazil, and India, with another six to
ten in process.
9. Research on problem structuring aid for analysts and alternative probability
systems, and preparation of a report on evidence and inference for intelligence
analysts.
25X
13.
14. Data base development on terrorism, demographics, and information related to
political instability
The number of projects approved has varied-presumably with some dependence on
funding levels as well as the appeal of the project. Funds for enhancements have been
reduced significantly since Admiral Turner proposed spending
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.In summary, the program is in its fourth year and has shown some tangible results,
and an opportunity to demonstrate a Community sensitivity to cooperation in external
research for improvements to intelligence production. There have been a number of
successes in these ventures and, as may be expected, a few experiments which did not
meet expectations.
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THE DCI PRODUCTION ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM
1. Guidelines
2. Project Categories
3. Functional Tasks/Applications
4. FY 1984, FY 1985 Approved Projects
5. Sponsors
6. Funding
PREPARED FOR THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PANEL
BY THE
INTELLIGENCE PRODUCERS COUNCIL STAFF
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GUIDELINES
New, innovative ways to improve the quality of intelligence analysis.
Speculative.
High payoff, benefit to the Community.
Two-year funding, modest cost projects.
Meet the DCI's urgent and early needs, be responsive to DCI's goals and objectives.
May not involve manpower augmentation.
Competition among projects, but not against regular program submissions.
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FUNCTIONAL TASKS/APPLICATIONS
Functional Tasks
81
82
84
85
Total
1. Computer Applications
5
6
3
5
19
2. Data Base Development
2
3
3
2
10
3. Research and Analysis
4
6
2
4
16
4. Training Aids
I
-
I
I
3
5. Simulation/Model
2
2
I
2
7
6. Methodology
5
4
I
2
12
7. Exploitation
2
I
I
3
7
8. Equipment Procurement
2
-
-
I
3
9. Collection as an
Intermediate Step
I
I
-
2
4
10. Analyst Support Operations
Applications
2
-
-
-
2
1. Analyst Aids
6
4
5
9
24
2. S&T
I
I
2
5
9
3. Policy Decisions
I
I
2
2
6
4. Products
2
3
I
3
9
5. I&W
10
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