NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T01079R000200180001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 26, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 21, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
21 August 1987
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Contents
Central America: Foreign Ministers Meet .................................. 2
Tunisia: Fundamentalist Challenge Growing .............................. 4
Afghanistan: Insurgent Commanders Confer .............................. 6
Brazil: Military Concerns Rising .................................................. 7
EI Salvador: More Combat Likely To Precede Cease-Fire.......... 8
Nicaragua: Continuing Search for Oil .......................................... g
USSR-Japan: Representatives Expelled ...................................... 10
Uganda: Security Situation Deteriorating .................................... 13
Philippines: Antinuclear Legislation Proposed ............................ 13
Special Analysis
Latin America: Contadora View of Peace Plan .......................... 15
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CENTRAL Foreign Ministers Meet
AMERICA:
resolve ambiguities in the peace agreement.
w o en e t ear wo- ay mee Ong ~n an a va or y+~
t
concentrated on organizational issues and did not attempt to
Initial reports suggest the Central American Foreign finis er
d t' S SI d
h dd h
All the Central American participants were upbeat in their statements
to the press, and the Foreign Ministers of both Nicaragua and
EI Salvador termed the meeting a success. The ministers fulfilled
several requirements of the Guatemala agreement, including
installing themselves as an Executive Committee, formally inviting the
Contadora countries and the Secretaries General of the Organization
of American States and the UN to join the International Verification
Commission, and requesting economic aid from the EC countries.
30 days in Managua
The communique did not specify the working commissions that had
been created and tersely noted that the ministers would study a
Salvadoran proposal on standards to implement the peace accord.
The ministers will meet with the Contadora countries on ~y in
Caracas and will meet again as the Executive Committee within
The communique contrasts with a draft version formulated by the
democracies, - That document
Verification Commission at Caracas.
the Ministers to presenting a timetable and procedural rules for the
proposed giving the ministers the power to coordinate the-lvork of
both the National Reconciliation Commission and the Verification
Commission with each government; Nicaragua rejected the proposal.
The draft also created working committees on refugees and amnesty,
renewed work on the proposed regional parliament, and committed
Commission.
Comment: Although the results closely followed the agenda, the
meeting appears to have achieved less than the democracies,
particularly EI Salvador, wanted on some organizational questions.
Managua probably rejected explicit jurisdiction for the ministers over
other bodies to enhance its own autonomy over reconciliation talks
and to gain greater weight for outside players on the Verification
probably handicapped the democracies, and the lack of an agreed
. timetable and procedural rules could give Managua more room to
Failure to enter the meeting with a common position on arms control
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TUNISIA: Fundamentalist Challenge Growing
K
Recent demonstrations and bombings in Tunisia, probably by
Islamic fundamentalists, presage an intense struggle between
President Bourguiba and religious militants as~ainst a
background of deteriorating public order.
Two groups of sympathizers of the Islamic Tendency Movement-MTI
is Tunisia's principal Islamic group-clashed with police yesterday in
Tunis, according to the US Embassy. The demonstrations reportedly
stem from the arrests earlier of six Tunisians who confessed-
possibly falsely-to bombings at four hotels early this month and to
membershi in MTI. President Bour uiba is ressing for their
execution, espite concerns
elsewhere in the government about fundamentalist retaliation.
pro- ranian group una i sated with MTI
he indiscriminate roundup of
fundamentalists-nearly 2,000 are in police custody-is undermining
popular support for the regime. The US Embassy reports there is
public skepticism about the government's attack on MTI.
Comment: Scattershot arrests are not likely to bring an end to the
increasingly violent street demonstrations MTI has staged over the
past six months. The movement's moderate leadership seems to have
given up hope of gaining legal status, making it less-inclined to curb
violence by activists. The disparate radical and student groups
associated with the loosely organized mass movement are in any
event not amenable to close control. Local police forces lack
experience in dealing with widespread civil disorder
Amid indications that the government is restricting even nonpolitical
Islamic activity, the executions of the fundamentalists if they
materialize and the opening of threatened trials against the president
of MTI next month, as well as the beginning of the school year in
October, will inflame tensions. In such an atmosphere,
fundamentalists might turn to attacks on foreign embassies and
personnel and Tunisian officials
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AFGHANISTAN: Insurgent Commanders Confer
Insurgent commanders inside Afghanistan are taking a larger
political role, apparently in part because of their unhappiness
with the Pakistani-based leadership of the seven-party
resistance alliance.
Several hundred insurgent commanders representing the major
resistance parties met recently in central Afghanistan, according to
_ ,~ media reports. They issued a communique that calls
for full military and political cooperation among all guerrilla groups
fighting in Afghanistan and declared that only those fighting the war
would determine Afghanistan's future political system. The statement
rejected Kabul's national reconciliation scheme, called for the
creation of an Islamic state, and demanded the unconditional
withdrawal of Soviet forces. The commanders warned that unless
Moscow paid "war indemnities" Soviet forces would be attacked as
they withdrew.
The meeting was arranged by Jamiat party commander Ismail Khan
and was the second large gathering of commanders this year. Several
hundred commanders from several parties gathered in Quetta,
Pakistan, in April to discuss political aspects of the war
Comment: The more recent meeting produced the clearest
expression yet of the deep dissatisfaction of internal commanders
with the alliance's chronic political weakness. The commanders seem
to believe that the increasing cooperation they have achieved on the
battlefield is creating a foundation on which they can build an
effective nationwide political and military organization. The strong
Islamic cast of the communique reflects the commanders' increasing
use of Islam as the unifying symbol of the resistance.
The growth of such a network would weaken-and in the long run
perhaps break-the link between the commanders and their party
leaders in Peshawar. A loosening of the Peshawar-based alliance's
control over its commanders would significantly reduce Pakistan's
ability to shape the military actions and political positions of the
resistance.
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Top Secret
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BRAZIL: Military Concerns Rising
Brazil's military high command is apprehensive about threats to
its institutional interests and is putting civilian politicians on
notice that there are limits to its support for democratic
government.
the high command is united in
opposing proposals in the Constituent Assembly to reinstate leftist
officers cashiered during the era of military rule. As written into the
draft constitution, the so-called military amnesty measure would
provide for full back pay and promotion for such officers.
Army Minister Leonidas is ord aff to refuse
any compromise on the issue and some
officers are hinting openly to eputies t at t e arme orces will close
the Assembly if the provision is passed. The military reportedly is
worried, however, that closing the legislature would be seen as a
blatant overthrow of the government and is uncertain whether junior
officers would support the move.
Leonidas is backing the creation of a military information service,
to counter what the armed
forces see as increasingly irresponsible reporting by leftist journalists.
Comment: The veiled threat to-close the Assembly almost certainly is
aimed at deflecting the amnesty proposal and not at staging a coup.
The high command appears to be aware of the lack of popular
support for another military intervention in politics. The military would
face widespread civil unrest if it moved against the Assembly at this
Leonidas's lobbying efforts to cut an acceptable deal on amnesty in
the next month will be critical to easing pressure from hardliners in
the officer corps. Leonidas probably will look to President Sarney for
help to prevent passage of an unacceptable amnesty provision.
Should Sarney fail, the armed forces might rally around the issue and
plot seriously against the government.
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7 21 August 1987
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EL SALVADOR: More Combat Likely To Precede Cease-Fire
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The pace of military activity in EI Salvador is likely to increase in
the next 11 weeks as both the Army and the guerrillas try to gain
the upper hand before the cease-fire mandated by the Central
American peace plan.
presence nationwide-particularly in guerrilla
launch new operations against e
planned cease~f.~~~ber,
a~~~laa y~r~epor~i~~
Although the military has been distrustful of negotiations with the
guerrillas, some Salvadoran officers reportedly believe acease-fire
under the terms of the peace agreement would gain international and
domestic support for the Army. The defense attache reports that they
are skeptical, however, that the insurgents will honor the accord, and
few field commanders are preparing contingency plans to implement
The guerrillas, meanwhile, have intensified attacks on lightly defended
targets, including a telecommunications facility and at least
10 bridges since late last month. The government is expecting a
major guerrilla attack on a key installation before November,
according to the defense attache. Guerrilla spokesmen have publicly
rejected the peace plan
Comment: The armed forces support the peace plan's cease-fire
arrangement because they interpret it as prohibiting guerrilla
occupation of "liberated zones" while permitting the Army to move
freely through the country. Despite the guerrillas' rejection of the plan,
San Salvador probably will call for acease-fire anyway so the rebels
can be blamed for any continued fighting.
Government operations-which had slowed in recent weeks-
probably will intensify in an effort to weaken the insurgents by
keeping them on the move and targeting their strongholds and supply
lines. The Army, however, will have difficulty maintaining along-term
presence in guerrilla strongholds in remote areas.
The guerrillas probably will continue low-risk attacks on economic
targets as well as attempting some spectacular action. They have had
nearly five months-since their assault on the Army brigade at EI
Paraiso-to plan and prepare for another major attack. By
November, however, the insurgents may. agree to a cease-fire to
obtain greater opportunities for rest, resupply, recruitment, and
political activities.
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NICARAGUA: Continuing Search for Oil
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Nicaragua is hinting that the Cenfra/ American peace accord
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On Tuesday, Vice President Ramirez warned that Nicaragua "cannot
have the necessary peace of mind and security" to pursue the peace
effort unless a 30-percent shortfall in oil supplies can be filled. He
added, however, that Managua will live up to its obligations under the
peace agreement.
Comment: The oil shortfall-caused primarily by the military's rapidly
growing demand for fuel-is probably closer to 15 percent, and the
Soviets almost certainly will cover it if other suppliers are not found.
By suggesting that peace in Central America may hinge on secure oil
supplies, Ramirez probably is trying to gain political and economic
support from sympathetic neighbors, primarily Mexico. His statement
may also be intended to appear responsive to Soviet enjoinders to
expand Western economic ties
Mexico City, which reportedly is looking for ways to regain a role in
the peace process, may agree to provide some oil to the Sandinistas
on concessionary terms. If Mexico decides to provide oil to the
Sandinistas, it would prefer to make deliveries within a regional
framework. Barring support for such an initiative, however, it may
attempt to garner Latin American agreement for unilateral shipments,
arguing then are needed to salvage the accord.
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Top Secret
Representatives Expelled
strains an already troubled relationship.
an intensification of Moscow's and Tokyo's charges and
countercharges of espionage, a development that further
This week's mutual expulsions of diplomatic personnel mark
13 years in the USSR-a week to leave. Tokyo responded yesterday
by ordering a Soviet trade official to leave Japan as soon as possible.
Soviet officials told the Japanese Ambassador on Wednesday that a
defense attache had to leave as soon as possible and gave the deputy
head of the Mitsubishi Corporation's Moscow office-who has spent
The Soviets had earlier lodged several protests about the way the
Japanese handled the Toshiba diversion case and various espionage-
related matters. The Soviets have recently taken steps to underscore
their concerns. On 7 August, for example, they had a Foreign Ministry
official stage manage a presentation about alleged Japanese-hest
German spy operation last year on the Trans-Siberian railway.
The Soviets have recently criticized purported mistreatment of their
fishing trawlers in a Japanese port, complained about demonstrations
at their Embassy in Tokyo, and publicly warned the Japanese to
consider their long-term interests in f in carried away with
their economic success.
Moscow has been unyielding on other points as well. Although the
Soviets have agreed to allow the same number of visits to Japanese
graves in the Northern Territories as they permitted last year, they
have again refused to allow visits to Kunashiri and Etorofu-the two
largest islands. Annual bilateral consultations on UN matters on
12 August produced little of note, ther
than the promise of a foreign ministers meeting at t e in the fall.
prepared to weather a downturn in relations
immediately by expelling a Soviet diplomat shows that Tok o is
Comment: The Soviet expulsions retaliate for Japan's crackdown
earlier this year on Soviet spy operations, which led to the withdrawal
of several Soviet officials from Tokyo. Japan's decision to respond
The expulsions will be high on the agenda for the scheduled meeting
between the two Foreign Ministers at the UN. The affair provides fresh
evidence that the Soviets, while still talking about a visit to Tokyo by
General Secretary Gorbachev under the right conditions, have no
intention at this time of making concessions to help bring about such
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UGANDA: Security Situation Deteriorating
Ugandan President Museveni is worried about deteriorating security
in the north and east and is convinced that Kenya is aiding Ugandan
rebels, Despite rebel losses last week in 25X1
attacks near Soroti, insurgent strength in the east is growing, and
local residents are afraid to coo erate with the overnment for fear of
rebel reprisals, The US Embassy 25X1
reports that Wort ern insurgents, meanw i e, ave interdicted the
main road linking Kampala to Nile Province Bela in convo s
supplying refugees returning from Sudan. 25X1
Comment: Kenyan President Moi dislikes Museveni and may be
turning a blind eye to rebel recruiting and organizing in Kenya, but
Moi almost certainly is not actively assisting the Ugandan rebels.
Museveni's belief that Nairobi is actively aiding the insurgents will
further strain relations with Kenya-Uganda's most important
economic partner-complicating Museveni's efforts to revive his
economy and build domestic support for his government.
PHILIPPINES: Antinuclear Legislation Proposed
Legislation was introduced in the Philippine Senate yesterday that
would ban the storage of nuclear weapons or devices in the
Philippines as well as their transit through its territorial waters and
airspace. One bill-signed by at least half of the 24 Senators,
including Senate President Salonga-would also ban nuclear-
powered ships. The Philippine Constitution says that the country will
pursue anuclear-free policy "consistent with the national interest."
Comment: The legislation is an early attempt to address what is likely
to become a divisive issue during forthcoming negotiations on the
US-Philippine Military Bases Agreement. Some Senators may want to
scare Washington into a more lucrative compensation package for
the bases but may not understand that a ban on nuclear-powered
ships might make the bases inoperable. The legislation also
represents a congressional challenge to President Aquino's authority
to define the "national interest." Aquino appears comfortable with
Washington's policy of neither confirming nor denying the presence of
nuclear weapons, but many legislators evidently want to force her
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French Secretary of State for Defense arrived in Beijing yesterday
..highest level defense official to visit China since 1949.. .
probably will discuss arms sales naval ort calls future visit of
French Defense Minister.
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asylum, but opposition maintains it can replace them
Peruvian Embassy in Panama granting provisional asylum to two
leaders of National Civil Crusade, according to US Embassy .. .
regime will permit departure ...other Crusade members may seek
resumption contingent on improved internal security measures.
northeast, cited guerrilla actions, including attack on helicopter, oil
camp Monday ...move not related to tensions with Venezuela .. .
Colombia's state oil company suspended exploration activity in
which both governments subsequently reneged
previous visit in 1985 solidified military, economic a reements on
tomorrow following stay in Ghana,
- Surinamese Head of Government Bouterse to visit Libya briefly
Radio Marti interviews of counterintelligence defector
of "captured" US equipment opens today, "double agents"
available to answer visitor questions ...probably retaliating for
Cuba has ended TV series on alleged US spying ... 15-day exhibit
of Saudi Embassy in Tehran, hoping to ease tensions.
US Consulate in Jiddah says Saudis lifted blockade of Iranian
Consulate ...two senior Iranian pilgrimage officials left following
deportation order ...Riyadh probably reciprocating for reopening
wounded in earlier incidents ...Israeli officials suspect
cooperation between PLO, local Islamic fundamentalists.
third attack against military in three weeks ...one killed, one
Israeli vehicle in Gaza Strip hit by Molotov cocktail Wednesday .. .
Oceania ~ ~ Proindependence group marching tomorrow in French territory of
New Caledonia despite ban, increased police presence ...group
protesting referendum on island's status set for 13 September,
which it expects to lose ...violence possible.
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14 21 August 1987
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Special Analysis
LATIN AMERICA: Contadora View of Peace Plan
The Contadora mediators have publicly endorsed the Central
American peace plan, yet recognize that their part in
the process has been reduce an that major hurdles still exist.
Mexico appears to be trying io reinsert the Contadora countries
into the process and to repair what Mexico City perceives as ifs
diminished international image. The other three mediafors-
Venezue/a, Colombia, and Panama-are preoccupied with
domestic concerns and are reacting more cautiously.
Mexican officials found many positive aspects in the agreement but
some are concerned about the diminished Contadora role,
The plan's provisions for an end to extern aid
o insurgen s an emocratization without foreign interference
comply with basic tenets of Mexico's regional policy. Nonetheless,
Mexico Cit erceives that its political standing in the region has
declined President de la Madrid has
ordered his Foreign Minister to find new ways for Mexico to continue
its role in the peace initiative.
The other Contadora mediators have not reacted beyond general
public statements supporting the plan. They are not likely to initiate
new proposals. Venezuela and Colombia are involved in a territorial
dispute and Panama is facing major political unrest.
The Contadora support group-Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and
Uruguay-is likely to maintain a low profile as well. US Embassy
reporting indicates some of these governments are skeptical of the
plan, believing it will encounter the same stumblingblocks as previous
efforts. Argentina, however, is prepared to condemn the Sandinistas
should they show bad faith in implementing the agreement, according
As part of the peace plan, the Contadora countries are assigned the
task of helping to develop the arms control proposal and serving on
the international verification commission-along with the OAS and
UN Secretaries General and support group foreign ministers.
Representatives of Contadora, the support group, and the Central
American nations will meet in Caracas this weekend to develop a
strategy for implementing the .plan, according to Embassy reporting.
Only Mexico is likely to urge a more vigorous Contadora role; it may
also suggest establishing an aid package for the region.
Tou Secret
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