NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T00963R000100070001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 9, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part,T,Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/31 : CIA-RDP88T00963R000100070001-1
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Larn7r7ir COT
:9'1 Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
9 July 1987
op ecre
CPAS NID 87-158JX
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Contents
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Panama: Regime Moving To Reduce Tensions
1
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Notes
South Yemen-USSR: Party Conference
3
Jordan-Israel: Controversy Over West Bank Water
Brazil: Splits in the Ruling Party
Nicaragua: Church-State Tensions Increasing
4
5
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Afghanistan: Former King Keeping Options Open
East Germany: Radical Palestinians Perceive Chill
6
7
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In Brief
9
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Special Analyses
Colombia-US: Extradition Treaty on Trial
10
Romania: Stagnation Persists
Argentina: Military Still Troubled
13
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PANAMA:
Regime Moving To Reduce Tensions
The Panamanian Government has taken steps to ease tensions
domestically and with the US but fears its international
credibility may be further damaged by the testimony today of
former Chief of Staff Diaz.
President Delvalle announced a ban on protests scheduled for today
and tomorrow, after three days of peaceful, but growing, opposition
demonstrations. The press reports that the regime shut down a
aroaovernment radio station that was airina anti-US vitriol
Diaz is scheduled to give an official statement to the Panamanian
Attorney General detailing his allegations of Norieoa's involvement in
the murder of a regime critic in 1985.
Comment: The government is attempting to reduce tensions with the
US, and the ban on protests probably is intended to prevent anti-US
violence during a massive progovernment rally scheduled for today.
Since the state of emergency was lifted, most of the violence has been
instigated by progovernment activists. Noriega undoubtedly hopes
the ban will also curb antigovernment activity, including a
demonstration scheduled for tomorrow. The opposition, however,
appears emboldened by its recent success in rallying supporters and
has announced it will still hold its protest; the military will put down
any opposition efforts to defy the ban.
Nonetheless, the regime evidently feels compelled to follow through
on Delvalle's call for an official investigation, in an effort to restore his
credibility and ease international pressure
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July 1987
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SOUTH YEMEN-USSR: Party Conference
Moscow apparently succeeded late last month in orchestrating a
peaceful party conference in Aden. but the meeting has aggravated
factional rivalries, the conference agenda,
drawn up by Soviet party officials in Moscow, avoided contentious
issues and called merely for the removal of supporters of deposed
President All Nasir from the party Central Committee.
two powerful rival factions
have emerged from the conference. An alliance of senior military and
party officials is pitted against the radical National Democratic Front,
the South Yemeni-backed insurgent movement against North Yemen.
Comment: Moscow may again find itself forced to choose between
competing groups in South Yemen. Any compromises between the
factions that the Soviets were able to work out will probably prove
temporary. The military is unlikely to give up its goal of eliminating the
Front as a force in South Yemeni politics, and the Front will actively
resist efforts to dislodge it. Both undoubtedly will appeal to Moscow
for support.
3
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JORDAN-ISRAEL: Controversy Over West Bank Water
Jordan is lodging a formal complaint with the UN over a new Israeli
plan to pump water from the West Bank to Jerusalem and Jewish
settlements and may try to call a Security Council meeting on the
issue. The US Embassy in Amman reports that the Jordanians believe
the proposal threatens to deplete already scarce West Bank water
supplies and that Prime Minister Rifai asked the US last week to
intercede on Jordan's behalf. According to press reports, Tel Aviv
anticipates that as much as 75 percent of the water to be drawn from
a new deep well near Bethlehem will be pumped for Israeli use.
Comment: Amman does not want to set a precedent by acquiescing
in Israeli decisions affecting the West Bank, especially on water
issues. The well's projected output would equal the nonagricultural
water consumption of the entire Arab population of the West Bank.
West Bank Arabs and Jordanians have long complained about Israeli
restrictions on new Arab wells and view this plan as another move to
strengthen Israel's hold on the occupied territory
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July 1987
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Too Secret
BRAZIL: Splits in the Ruling Party
Prominent leftwing members of the ruling Brazilian Democratic
Movement Party are calling for withdrawal from President Sarney's
coalition government following last week's violent protests against
new austerity measures, according to press reports. They are
preparing an alternative economic program to stem growing
unemployment and labor unrest and will press the party to vote in the
Constituent Assembly for an early election to replace Sarney.
Senator Jose Richa, a rising
young leader with ties to the military, reeelitly proposed that Sarney
suspend the unruly Constituent Assembly so that legislators can
provide undivided support to the embattled President?a proposal
that has been widely attacked by party leaders and has further split
the party.
_ ? ?
Comment: The party, worried about a growing public backlash and
looming recession, will probably remain in the coalition but be divided
over support for Sarney. The intraparty splits will further erode the
President's slim legislative majority, and, as a result, Sarney may
soon be forced to abandon his new austerity program. Moreover, the
leftist faction may seek tactical alliances with Sarney's opposition,
heightening protest actiyities and military apprehension about Brazil's
chaotic politics.
NICARAGUA: Church-State Tensions Increasing
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The Sandinistas are renewing verbal attacks against Catholic Church
leaders as part of their longstanding running battle with Cardinal
Obando y Bravo.eeopaing-44x-the-44S-Embass3 Sandinista leaders
have publicly called the Cardinal a mercenary and rebel collaborator
because he was unwilling to blame the insurgents for the deaths of
two church people killed by a landmine in central Nicaragua last
week. They also have resurrected allegations that Obando has
received covert )*funding. The regime accused Papal Nuncio
Monsignor Paolo Giglio of doubletalk when he publicly laid the cause
of the war to internal Nicaraguan divisions.Fet-Efre-pratfejj
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Comment: The Sandinistas consistently have looked for ways to
discredit Obando and his top aides, two of whom have been forced
into exile. The attack on the Nuncio?whose less antagonistic stance
bought him relatively peaceful relations with the regime over the past
year?may contribute to closer cooperation between him and the
Cardinal._ - ' znt-the
-FegifRe-direotlyrinereasingeonfidettee-that-he-ties-the-Vatietmls,
tractirrg-mar strengtherrtrirreselve-anil-ie
eteftel4R-eurcent4alks-wittrregirrie-offictaE 25X1
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9 July 1987
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AFGHANISTAN: Former King Keeping Options Open
Former Afghan King Zahir Shah recently told the Soviets through an
intermediary that he would join the national reconciliation process
only after Moscow was firmly committed to withdrawing its troops and
had guaranteed Afghan self-determination
Zahir foresees no movement toward peace
until the Soviets and the resistance negotiate directly and believes
that only an agreement signed by the UN Security Council, Pakistan,
and Iran can ensure Soviet withdrawal. Zahir's son-in-law, Abdul Wali,
told West German officials last week that Zahir had no interest in
restoring the monarchy but would play an "integrating role" in a
post-Soviet regime.
Comment: Although Zahir shows little interest in a major role in
shaping the peace, he is reluctant to rule out participating in national
reconciliation out of a sense of patriotism and a belief that some
refugees and insurgents look to him for leadership. His colleagues,
especially Abdul Wali, are politically ambitious, however, and are
pushing on several fronts?including with several West European
governments, prominent Afghan exiles, the King's friends in the
resistance, and perhaps with Moscow, Kabul, and Islamabad?for a
leading role for Zahir in a post-Soviet government
TOD Secret
6 9 July 1987
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EAST GERMANY: Radical Palestinians Perceive Chill
Alleged East German coolness toward two radical Palestinian groups
may reflect concern about increasing Western charges that East
Berlin supports terrorist groups.
Comment: The temporary stranding of several hundred radical
Palestinians in East Berlin after Syria denied them reentry in May may
have contributed to the regime's desire to limit these groups'
presence. There is no evidence, however, that East Germany is
moving to sever entirely its longstanding ties to radical groups,
including those like Abu Nidal that target West European and US as
well as Israeli interests.
Too Secret
7 9 July 1987
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Middle East
? Iraq's claim that it attacked Iran's Khark Island terminal on
Tuesday is unconfirmed ... gS-14avy-Fepectsrhowever-rits
tugboat serving Khark was hit.
? Iraq used blister agent mustard in Sar Dasht, Iran, last month,
according to press... probably aimed at
military staging area, but many civilian casualties resulted.
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USSR
? USSR inviting6
European observers to military exercise
in
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Carpathian Military District 17-22 August...
Stockholm CDE agreement ... first exercise
in accordance with
on Soviet territory
requiring invitation of observers under
CDE.
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? Pravda reports Soviet party secretary and
Gorbachev ally
Razumovskiy visiting China reiterated
normalization of party relations ...
Moscow's desire
one of the highest party
for full
officials to visit China in 20 years.
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Americas
Cuba televising series alleging US
Interests Section involved
in
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espionage, names US personnel ... probable
defections... Havana says US officials
response to recent
will not be expelled ...
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appears unprepared to break relations.
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- General strike in Haiti ended yesterday, butk8-EfFtbeeey-sa
some still demanding ouster of ruling council, planning
tremonstrations.temeffew
. popular consensus probably
favors
end to unrest for
now.
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- Leftist labor group
embarrass governmentricserefing-ter-US-Embitsii...
in El Salvadoriplans to intensify
protests to
hopes to
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attract media attention by occupying an
embassy ... one clash
between police, demonstrators reported
so far.
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Ton Secret
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9 9 July 1987
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Special Analysis
COLOMBIA-US: Extradition Treaty on Trial
Colombia's extradition treaty with the US is unlikely to survive
intact against continuing attacks by drug traffickers on Judicial
and other officials. A personal commitment by President Barco
to extradition may be strong enough to keep the treaty alive, but
he probably will not be able to block congressional amendments
later this summer that would prevent the extradition of
Colombians.0-thelfg
The treaty, enacted to break up the Colombian drug networks,
stipulates that Bogota,iis obligated to extradite its nationals if
&cash.ington-can show they were involved in conspiracies, money
laundering, or other drug-related offenses. Drug trafficking
organizations have retaliated by murdering six leading proponents of
extradition during the past year and have cowed the Colombian
Supreme Court, the most critical link in the extradition chain. The
murder of one judge and threats against othersjiave succeeded in
rupturing the Court's integrity,arkeeerding-te-the-6S-EfftbaaaR
hastening the resignation of its president and causing the remaining
judges to refuse to rule on extradition cases.
Only three traffickers have been extradited since May 1986, as
compared with 13 during the preceding 17 months; other major
traffickers have been released before their extraditions could be
processed. The Court ruled recently that the treaty's ratifying
legislation is illegal, finding that a weaker 1888 treaty?which gives
the President powers in extradition cases?prevails
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loopholes in the treaty to delay or cancel extradi ? ? ? ne important
money launderer currently is bein olombia on the same
charges pending a ai ?hitYrrn?the US, using a double-jeopardy
defense,..whic1rW?recommended by a lawyer in the Supreme Court,
ticaaisTi44-his-ex4raffitieti-regefdless-of-tlie-verktiti
Closing in for the Kill
media and legislative support for the treaty. F. wing the
assassination of one of the country-Treading editors and other acts of
intimidation, a planntcl-serrei-O-f exposes on drug trafficking
apparently has-tyggn abandoned. Meanwhile, according to Embassy
report* grominent journalists have asserted that extradition is not
vsirlh-the-saea:ifiees-Gelentbie-has-Fnade:
continued
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10 9 July 1987
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Traffickers also are stacking the congressional deck by intimidating
supporters of extradition into resignina and by bribina and
threatening other legislative leaders
With strong guidance from President Barco, Congress may try to
block blatantly corrupt legislators from gaining influence over the
ratification process. Maneuvering by both sides is likely to intensify,
however, ensuring a tense atmosphere and growing polarization of
the extradition issue when Congress reconvenes on 20 July
Outlook
President Barco continues to adhere to the stronger 1979 treaty,
keeping the onus of deciding extradition cases on the Supreme Court.
He is also streamlining the organization of the narcotics police and
assigning more judges and investigators to drug cases. Nevertheless,
the President will be hard pressed to fend off trafficker-backed
amendments. Even if he stands fast, he almost certainly will have to
compromise eventually by agreeing to damaging amendments?
particularly if, as is likely, the debate opens against a violent
backdrop that dramatizes the power of the traffickers.
The collapse of the extradition process in Colombia would give
traffickers a much freer hand in running and expanding their
operations. They would be able to reaffirm ties to government and
criminal circles that have frayed because of restraints on their
mobility, and they probably would further intimidate the judiciary in
domestic drug cases.
The defeat of extradition in Colombia would also endanger other
efforts currently taking shape elsewhere in South America. .4.4efiety-
ef-146-Effteesey-Fepefte-ieel.iee4e44let officials from Peru(have admitted
that fear of reprisals from narcotics interests are already undermining
an agreement last year among Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, and other
governments to standardize extradition procedures and broaden
cooperation on drug enforcement measures.
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Ton Secret
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Special Analysis
ROMANIA:
Stagnation Persists
Romanian President Ceausescu is relying increasingly on the
security forces, his family, and trusted proteges as his political
isolation grows. Some high-level officials are dissatisfied with
Ceausescu's economic mismanagement and his antipathy toward
Gorbachev-style reforms, but this sentiment has not yet
coalesced into organized opposition. There is a slight possibility,
however, that disaffected party officials will be emboldened to
move against Ceausescu if public morale and the domestic
situation continue downhill.
Ceausescu's position appears secure for now because of the effective
and sometimes brutal control of the security apparatus. A spate of
demonstrations and labor actions following yet another austere winter
has died down. Even these brief protests were limited by the
customar combination of minor concessions and threats of security
action.
Growing Discontent
The more serious threat to Ceausescu comes from within the
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number of party officials share in the widespread public disoust with
Ceausescu's political excessed economic failures, and 25X1
there ist r44?4q= discontent within the military and 25X1
possibly even within the privileged'ranks of the security forces.
Some officials apparently would like to adopt Gorbachev-style
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Ceausescu, meanwhile, keeps tightening his grip on the economy and
promoting his family and ambitious wife, further narrowing the circle
of influential officials at the top. For her part, Elena Ceausescu is
trying to build her own power base, primarily through her position as
chief of the party Cadres Commission and her ties to security chief
Postelnicu.
continued
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13 9 July 1987
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Outlook
Although she is trying to position herself to succeed Ceausescu, his
wife is so unpopular and lacking in political skills that other would-be
successors are likely to outmaneuver her quickly once her husband is
gone. Were she to succeed in replacing her husband Quickly
however, she would become more difficult to replace.
Opposition to Ceausescu within the leadership still seems poorly
organized and lacking in initiative, but this situation could change as
domestic conditions continue to deteriorate and popular unrest
increases. Ceausescu's position would be jeopardized if the security
forces?to assure their continuing influence?turned against him and
souaht to cooperate with disaffected party and military officials.
These officials would tend to favor moderate changes in economic
policy to alleviate severe austerity measures. They might be less
inclined than Ceausescu is to antagonize Moscow and more oriented
toward cooperation within the Soviet Bloc but probably would seek to
maintain Romania's economic and political ties to the West and Third
World to retain some independence.
Top Secret
14 9 July 1987
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Special Analysis
ARGENTINA:
Military Still Troubled
Widespread application of the due obedience law by federal
courts has considerably reduced friction between the Argentine
Government and disgruntled military officers. Tempers are likely
to flare again with the approach of the elections in September as
the armed forces flex their political muscle on a number of
controversial issues.
Since the law was passed last month, federal judges have dropped
charges against some 200 active-duty and retired officers, according
to the US Embassy. While military personnel are relieved by the
court's actions, many insist that only a full amnesty will satisfy their
demands. Active-duty officers assert that they will refuse to testify
against their retired commanders;
The military will also press the government on the budget, equipment
acquisition, and training, but severe economic difficulties limit
President Alfonsin's ability to appease the services through increased
spending. Larger operational budgets for the military would require
either politically unpopular cuts in social spending or increases in
public-sector expenditures, aggravating inflation?already expected
to top 100 percent this year?and ensuring noncompliance with IMF
guidelines. Moreover, the President's current political priority is to
increase federal aid to the provinces and grant additional wage hikes
to labor to enhance his party's chances in the congressional and
gubernatorial elections on 6 September.
peneral Caridi has not reestablished the Army
chain of command since the Easter uprisings, and rebellious officers
remain a cohesive force capable of defying the government's
authority. In recent weeks, there has been a series of provocations?
including minor bombings?probably engineered by the far right;
such incidents will probably grow more frequent during the campaign.
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15 9 July 1987
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