THE CUBAN PRESENCE IN ANGOLA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T00565R000600890002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 15, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
15 November 1985
THE CUBAN PRESENCE IN ANGOLA
This Interagency Intelligence Assessment was prepared under the auspices
of the National Intelligence Officer for Africa. The Assessment was
coordinated at the working level within the Central Intelligence Agency,
the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the
intelligence organization of the Department of State. Also participating
were the intelligence organizations of the Departments of the Army, the
Navy, and the Air Force; and the Headquarters, Marine Corps. Information
available as of 8 November 1985 was used in the preparation of this
Assessment.
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INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
THE CUBAN PRESENCE IN ANGOLA
Based on a recent review of all-source information, the Intelligence
Community believes that there are now approximately 36,000 Cuban military
personnel in Angola. Of this number, we estimate that 28,000 belong to
Cuban combat units--mostly ground forces, and 8,000 are Cuban military
advisers attached to various Angolan Armed Forces (FAPLA) units. The
total of 36,000 military personnel reflects a 5,000-man increase since
1982, when insurgent successes and South African military operations in
Angola led Havana to boost its assistance to Luanda. In addition to the
military, some 6,000 civilians work in some capacity for the Angolan
Government, bringing the overall total of Cubans in Angola to 42,000.
Cuban pilots comprise the primary operational component of the
Angolan Air Force and often fly missions in support of FAPLA units
operating against the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola
(UNITA). Some Cuban advisers working closely with Angolan soldiers in
the field also become involved in active combat. Most other Cuban
forces, however, apparently avoid an active combat role and are employed
primarily in defensive postures.
The Intelligence Community does not expect a significant increase in
Cuban force levels in Angola during the next six months, although several
hundred additional troops may arrive as the Cubans fill out newly formed
units. We also do not anticipate any withdrawal of Cuban troops, even if
FAPLA garners some major military successes against UNITA. A dramatic
expansion of the UNITA insurgency could lead to another measurable
increase in Cuban troop levels or a greater direct combat role by Cuban
ground forces. Luanda and Havana both appear convinced of the need for a
continued large Cuban military presence in Angola.
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Estimate of Cuban Military Personnel in Angola
The Intelligence Community believes that approximately 28,000 Cuban
combat troops are currently stationed in Angola. This figure excludes
military advisers and logistical support personnel assigned to Angolan
Armed Forces units and Cuban civilian personnel. Of the 28,000 Cuban
troops in Angola, we estimate that approximately 21,000 are organized
into at least 13 Cuban brigade type units, approximately 5,300 operate
air defense sites, and another 1,300 are air force personnel.* In
addition, reporting indicates that several hundred
Cuban security personnel are assigned to the Angolan Ministry of Interior.
The Community's estimate of 28,000 combat troops reflects an increase
of approximately 5,000 troops since late 1982. During late 1983 and
throughout 1984, Cuba conducted a significant augmentation of its troop
strength in Angola. This increase in Cuban military personnel was in
response to the significant expansion of the UNITA insurgency in Angola
and, to a lesser extent, to numerous South African military operations in
the southern part of the country.
Most of the additional Cuban troops have been assigned to northern
Angola, where they are defending large population centers against
possible UNITA attacks. Since 1982, new Cuban brigade type units or
elements of brigades have been identified in Luena, Malanje, Luanda, and
Lobito. The increase in Cuban military strength in the north has not
come at the expense of a drawdown in Cuban personnel in southern Angola.
The Cuban response to frequent South African cross-border operations
into Angola has been limited to the deployment to the south of additional
air defense units. With this exception, Cuban military forces have not
moved closer to the Angolan-Namibian border since 1982.
In addition to the 28,000 combat troops, the Intelligence Community
believes that there are also approximately 8,000 Cuban military advisers
attached to FAPLA units. This figure includes military advisers,
technicians, trainers and staff, many of whom serve in logistics, and
brings our estimate of total Cuban military strength in Angola to 36,000.
*Totals are not exact due to rounding.
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Role of Cuban Military. Cuban units perform a number of essentially
defensive functions in Angola. Cuban ground forces are located in all
but one of Angola's military regions. For the most part, army units
garrison major provincial towns and defend selected key installations
such as mines, dams, bridges, airfields, and the important oil facilities
in Cabinda Province. As the UNITA insurgency has expanded, Cuban combat
units have also been stationed to defend major roads and have also
performed convoy escort services.
Since the late 1970s, the direct Cuban combat role of ground forces
has been limited. On occasion and after a FAPLA request for such
assistance, Cuban units have provided artillery support and have been
involved in limited combat. Cuban installations have also been attacked
by UNITA forces, and the Intelligence Community believes that Cuban units
have displayed greater willingness since 1982 to fight aggressively to
protect threatened population centers from UNITA attacks.
Cuban air defense personnel are assigned to Angola's mobile and fixed
SAM batteries and air warning radar sites. Most of these
installations--12 of the 18 air warning radar sites and most of the SAM
batteries--are located along the Namibe-Menongue Rail Line or elsewhere
in southern Angola. Cuban personnel play the key role in coordinating
Angola's growing air defense network.
The 260 Cuban pilots in Angola fly virtually every type of aircraft
in the Angolan inventory, including transport planes, helicopters, and
air superiority jet fighters, and comprise the primary operational
component of the Angolan Air Force. Of all Cuban personnel in Angola,
the pilots most often perform combat roles, flying air support missions
for FAPLA units engaging UNITA insurgents. We believe Cuban pilots have
conducted most of the air strikes against UNITA positions during the
recent FAPLA offensive.
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The 8,000 Cuban advisers are active throughout the Angolan military,
working in the Ministry of Defense and as foremen, maintenance men,
trainers, and unit advisers. Many of these personnel probably often find
themselves in combat situations, as they work closely with Angolan Armed
Forces units down to the com an level and accompany them in operations
against UNITA. Reporting also indicates that Cuban
military personnel advise and train South-West Africa People's
Organization and African National Congress members in Angola.
Cuban Casualties. Evidence of Cuban military casualties in Angola is
not often available, is mostly anecdotal and therefore frequently
imprecise. Although the numbers have varied greatly over the years,
previous estimates of Cubans killed and wounded in Angola--ranging from
2,000 to 10,000--have been based primarily on casualties suffered during
Havana's initial involvement during the Angolan civil war in late 1975.
Cuban casualties apparently dropped substantially after 1978 when most,
if not all, combat responsiblities were turned over to FAPLA. We believe
that the lower end of the 2,000 to 10,000 range is probably the more
accurate measure of Havana's losses up through the early 1980s.
Since 1982, however, the spread and intensification of UNITA
guerrilla activity apparently has taken a mounting toll on Cuban military
personnel. Whether this growth in casualties is due to UNITA's efforts
to target Cuban personnel or to a more active role in counterinsurgency
operations by Cuban troops is not clear. In any case, the total number
of Cubans killed and wounded in Angola since 1975 probably now stands at
4,000 to 5,000. In addition to combat casualties, several thousand
Cubans have died as a result of accidents or disease.
Cuban Civilian Advisers
In addition to the 36,000 Cuban military personnel assigned to
Angola, the Intelligence Community estimates that Havana has another
6,000 civilian personnel in country. Distinguishing civilian from
military personnel is often difficult because many supposedly civilian
employees probabl are on the Cuban Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed
Forces' payroll.
Cuban civilian personnel work in all parts of the Angolan government
bureaucracy, performing both advisory and functional tasks. Cuban
civilians serve as teachers, doctors, construction workers, agricultural
experts, and in numerous other economic fields. Most Cuban civilians
probably work in areas where they enjoy the protection of Cuban combat
units rather than FAPLA personnel.
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Trends over the Next Six Months
There has been no significant increase in Cuban force levels since
May 1985, although troop strength continues to grow slightly as some
newly formed units are brought up to full manning levels. The
Intelligence Community expects that Angola will continue to receive new
military equipment from the Soviet Union, such as air defense systems,
that will also require the deployment of additional Cuban personnel. We
do not expect, however, that Cuban military strength will jump much above
36,000, although several hundred new troops may arrive as the Cubans fill
out units that currently are under strength. Nevertheless, a dramatic
expansion of the UNITA insurgency could lead to another measurable
increase in Cuban troop levels or a greater direct combat role by Cuban
ground forces. We believe that Havana is determined to preserve the
current Angolan Government and will respond to an increased threat
against Luanda. Cuba has the capability to provide additional military
forces. For instance, more military personnel could be provided in a
relatively short time from either Cuba or its expeditionary force in
Ethiopia.
We believe there is almost no prospect for the withdrawal of Cuban
troops from Angola during the next six months.
on keeping its Cuban protectors. Despite the recent increase in
casualties, we believe that Cuban losses in Angola remain politically and
militarily acceptable to Havana. In fact, we expect Havana to maintain
its current troop levels even if FAPLA inflicts some significant military
setbacks to UNITA.
*Department of State Footnote: The Angolan Government, in its November
1984 "plataforma," accepted the linkage between Cuban troop withdrawal
and a negotiated settlement on Namibia. The State Department believes
there is a conflict within the Popular Movement for the Liberation of
Angola on Cuban withdrawal, but the negotiating track has been kept open.
The Angolan Government depends tor its surv-1-val
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