OVERVIEW OF IRAN'S RENEWED EFFORTS FOR NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88R01225R000200900002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: August 7, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelli~noe ngrncy
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7 AUG 19~
MEMORANDUM FOR: Subgroup on Nuclear Export Coordination
Acting erector o Scientific and Weapons Research
SUBJECT: Overview of Iran's Renewed Efforts
for Nuclear Development
1. The attached memorandum provides an overview of Iran's
renewed efforts for nuclear development. It discusses Iran's
nuclear research program, the status of work associated with
completing Iran's Bushehr-I nuclear power reactor, and the pros-
pects for nuclear weapons development in Iran.
2. If you have any questions concerning the attached
memorandum, please feel free to contact
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SUBJECT: Overview of Iran's Renewed Efforts for
Nuclear Development
Distribution:
Copy 1 - Ellie Busick, Acting Chairman of Subgroup
on Nuclear Export Coordination, Room 7820,
Department of State
2 - John Rooney, Department of Energy, Room 4B-044,
Forrestal Building, Washington, D.C.
3 - Gary Bray, Arms Control and Disarmament Agency,
Room 4678, Department of State
4 - Gerald Opplinger, Office of the Secretary of
Defense, Room 1E443, Pentagon, Washington, D.C.
20301-2600
5 - George Menas, Department of Defense, DTSA/ST,
Washington, D.C. 20301
6 - George Kuzmycz, Department of Commence,
OEA/CG and TM Division, Room 1091, Washington,
D.C. 20230
7 - Janice Dunn Lee, Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
Willsite Building, Room 261, 7915 Eastern
Avenue, Silver Spring, Maryland
8 - Defense Intelligence Agency, DT-lA,
Room C6834B Washington, D.C. 20301-6111
9 - Defense Intelligence Agency, DT-lA,
Room C6836, Washington, D.C. 20301-6111
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SUBJECT: Overview of Iran's Renewed Efforts for
Nuclear Development
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5 August 1985
OVERVIEW OF IRAN'S RENEWED EFFORTS FOR NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT
Summary
In 1982, the Islamic Government of Iran reversed its
decision to abandon the Shah's ambitious nuclear program.
The direction of Iran's current program suggests that
Iran is attempting to implement plans organized under the
Shah that included developing a nuclear fuel cycle to
support a nuclear research and power reactor program.
Iran is a party to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of
Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and there is no evidence that Iran
is resuming nuclear research to develop nuclear weapons.
Even if they were to renounce the NPT, we believe that
Iran will not have the technology needed to recover
plutonium for a nuclear weapon within at Ieast the next
ten years.
Background
The Government of Iran's 1982 decision to reinstitute the Shah's nuclear
program was in part due to tJ~e personal ambitions of the Atomic Energy
Organization of Iran's (AEOI) two principle leaders, Reza Amrollahi, Director
General of the AEOI and Cyrus Amer-Tusi, Special Consultant. The decision was
This memorandum was revuest
was prepare
of Scientific and Weapons Researc and was coordinated with the
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Office of Near East/South Asia Analysis, Global Issues, East Asian
Analysis, European Analysis, African and Latin American ~inalysis, 25X1
and reviewed by the National Intelligence Officer-at-Large.
Comments and queries ma be directed to the Chief, Nuclear Energy
Division, OSWR 25X1
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also based on Iran's interest in utilizing nuclear energy to meet domestic
electricity needs and on the Islamic Government's conclusion that to do
otherwise would waste the large amount of money already invested in
constructing nuclear laboratories and nuclear power reactors.
We do not expect Iran to have significant manpower problems in resuming
its nuclear program. Even though highly qualified personnel working in the
Shah's ambitious program left during the Islamic revolution in 1979, several
fairly competent professionals apparently remained and are now working in the
nuclear program. In order to upgrade their personnel, the Atomic Energy
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Iran, however, is having and probably will continue to have chronic
problems in obtaining enriched uraniua fuel for its US-supplied research
reactor at the NRC. Since early 1983, Iran has been trying to buy fuel for the
reactor directly from West European supplier countries and through the IAEA.
To date, Iran has not found a willing supplier. Iran probably will be forced
to shut down the reactor if it does not obtain fuel by the end of this year.
This will impede their progress in areas of reactor design and operation as
well as training personnel.
Prospects for Nuclear Weapons
Iran has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and we have no
evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. We believe that Iran may at
some future date be motivated to become a nuclear weapons power for reasons of
prestige as well as regional security. However, Iran would need a reactor that
could provide it with enough fissile material (i.e. plutonium) for a nuclear
weapon and a reprocessing facility to separate the plutonium from spent reactor
fuel. If the Bushehr-I reactor can be completed and operated, plutonium will
be produced. The diversion of this plutonium however, would be a violation of
international safeguards that apply to the reactor, even if Iran were to
withdraw from the NPT. We speculate that Iran's indigenous reactor development
effort could eventually lead to construction of a suitable plutonium production
reactor, but not before the turn of the century. Even so, it will also be
difficult for Iran to acquire the reprocessing technology necessary to recover
any plutonium produced because of nuclear supplier controls that apply to the
export of such technology. And we do not believe that Iran could indigenously
develop this technology over the next ten years.
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