REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AT THE AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLICY CONFERENCE SUNDAY, 6 APRIL 1986

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88G01117R001004050004-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2011
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: April 6, 1986
• Content Type: MISC

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REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
AT THE
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLICY CONFERENCE
SUNDAY, 6 APRIL 1986
WASHINGTON HILTON HOTEL
WASHINGTON, D. C.
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TODAY, I WOULD LIKE TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST
IN THE CONTEXT OF NEW DIMENSIONS IN THE STRATEGIC BALANCE
BETWEEN THE SOVIET BLOC AND THE FREE DEMOCRACIES. IN THIS
CONTEXT, I WANT TO LOOK AT PRESENT DANGERS AND HOW WE CAN
MEET THEM IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THE ARENA OF OUR PARTICULAR
CONCERN TONIGHT. I DO IT THIS WAY BECAUSE I BELIEVE THAT
TODAY WE ARE WITNESSING PARTICULARLY INTENSIVE EFFORTS TO
TILT THE OVERALL STRATEGIC BALANCE WORLDWIDE AGAINST THE
WEST AND BECAUSE WE AMERICANS HAVE THUS FAR FAILED TO SEE THE.
INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE MIDDLE EAST, IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE PERSIAN GULF,
IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASINGLY,
OUR POLICIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND ELSEWHERE MUST BE GEARED
TO AN EVER MORE AGGRESSIVE SOVIET INVOLVEMENT AND A GROWING
DANGER FROM RADICA' AND VIOLENT GROUPS OPERATING THERE. WHILE
WE CONFRONT THIS THREAT WE MUST PROTECT OUR OVERALL STRATEGIC
POSTURE FROM SIMILAR AND COMPLEMENTARY PRESSURES ELSEWHERE.
WE ALL KNOW ROUGHLY THE HISTORY OF THE STRATEGIC BALANCE
AND HOW ESSENTIAL IT IS TO PROTECT OUR FREE AND OPEN SOCIETIES.
FROM THE BEGINNING, THE SOVIETS HAD THE DOMINANCE IN LAND
WARFARE. THIS WAS COUNTERED BY AMERICAN SUPERIORITY IN STRATEGIC
FORCES. BY 1980, THE SOVIET STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE FORCES HAD
CAUGHT UP AND, IN MANY KEY AREAS, SURPASSED OURS. THE SOVIETS
ARE NOW PROTECTING THEIR LAND MISSILE FORCE BY MAKING MUCH OF
IT MOBILE, WHEREAS OUR MOBILE MISSILES WILL NOT BE DEPLOYED
UNTIL WELL INTO THE 1990s.
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THE SOVIETS HAVE FOR WELL OVER A DECADE CONDUCTED A VIGOROUS
MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM. THEY ARE NOW COMPLETING A MISSILE
DEFENSE SYSTEM AROUND MOSCOW. WE HAVE NO COMPARABLE SYSTEM.
FACING A COMBINATION OF OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE MISSILE
FORCES CAPABLE OF A FIRST STRIKE AGAINST OUR NUCLEAR DETERRENT,
OUR SDI RESEARCH IS EXAMINING WHETHER EFFECTIVE DEFENSES, WHICH
THREATEN NO ONE, CAN PROVIDE A MORE STABLE DETERRENT.
WHILE WE NEGOTIATE TO SCALE DOWN THE HUGE NUCLEAR ARSENAL
WITH WHICH THE TWO SUPERPOWERS FACE EACH OTHER, A MORE INSIDIOUS
THREAT IS DEVELOPING.
THE SOVIETS' MASSIVE NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL FORCES MAY
BE ONLY A SHIELD TO MAKE IT EASIER AND LESS RISKY TO INTIMIDATE
AND SUBVERT WEAKER GOVERNMENTS AND TO GOBBLE UP PIECES OF
TERRITORY AROUND THE GLOBE.
THEY HAVE ACQUIRED BRIDGEHEADS IN CUBA AND VIETNAM, IN
SOUTH YEMEN AND ETHIOPIA, IN ANGOLA AND NICARAGUA, IN CAMBODIA
AND AFGHANISTAN. THESE BRIDGEHEADS ARE BEING LINKED IN A
GROWING LOGISTIC AND MUTUAL SUPPORT NETWORK SUPPORTED WITH
EXPANDING SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR POWER.
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IN THE CARIBBEAN, THE SOVIETS HAVE CREATED IN CUBA THE
STRONGEST MILITARY FORCE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR OWN. OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS THEY HAVE GIVEN
CUBA MASSIVE INFUSIONS OF MILITARY HARDWARE. TODAY, WE SEE
AN EXTENSION OF THIS CUBAN BASE ON THE AMERICAN MAINLAND IN
NICARAGUA.
SIMILAR LINKS AND COMPONENTS OF THIS NETWORK HAVE BEEN
ESTABLISHED AROUND THE GLOBE. FROM ANGOLA, SOVIET NAVAL AND
AIR FORCES NOW ROUTINELY OPERATE ASTRIDE WESTERN SHIPPING LANES
IN THE ATLANTIC.
SIMILARLY, THIS NETWORK THREATENS WESTERN SEA LANES IN
THE RED SEA, ARABIAN SEA, AND INDIAN OCEAN FROM BASES IN ETHIOPIA
AND SOUTH YEMEN.
SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR FORCES, OPERATING OUT OF OUR FORMER
BASES AT CAM RANH BAY AND DA NANG IN VIETNAM, COMMAND THE VITAL
SEA LANES LINKING JAPAN, TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA WITH THEIR
MIDDLE EAST OIL SUPPLIES AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN ALLIES.
THE MEDITERRANEAN SEGMENT OF THIS SOVIET GLOBAL NETWORK
IS ANCHORED AT LIBYA AND SYRIA, WHICH ARE GAINING INFLUENCE
AND CONTROL IN LEBANON AND SUDAN TO FURTHER SQUEEZE ISRAEL AND
THE MODERATE ARAB STATES.
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THESE BRIDGEHEADS ARE NOT STATIC. THEY HAVE A PURPOSE.
THEY ARE LOCATED NEAR STRATEGIC CHOKE POINTS IN THE WORLD'S
SEA LANES OR IN AREAS OF HIGH TENSION AND POTENTIAL CONFLICT.
THEY ARE BEING USED TO SPREAD SUBVERSION AND TERROR, AND SPAWN
NEW BRIDGEHEADS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. FROM CUBA AND
NICARAGUA, TERRORISM AND SUBVERSION ARE BEING EXPORTED THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO CHILE, COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN
LATIN AMERICA. FROM LIBYA, THERE IS INVASION OF CHAD, ATTEMPTS
AT DESTABILIZING GOVERNMENTS IN EGYPT AND TUNISIA, ZAIRE AND
SUDAN, AND SUBVERSION THROUGHOUT WEST AFRICA. FROM ANGOLA,
THERE ARE INTRUSIONS INTO ZAIRE. FROM SOVIET-OCCUPIED
AFGHANISTAN, THERE ARE CONTINUING ARMED INTRUSIONS INTO PAKISTAN.
ALREADY A HALLMARK OF THE GORBACHEV REGIME IS INTENSIFIED
EFFORT TO CEMENT THESE BRIDGEHEADS. HAVING PILED CLOSE TO TWO
BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF ARMS INTO ANGOLA, SOVIET ADVISORS AND
CUBAN TROOPS ARE FEVERISHLY PREPARING A CAMPAIGN, LIKELY TO BE
LAUNCHED DURING THIS MONTH AND DESIGNED TO WIPE OUT THE SAVIMBI
FORCES RESISTING THE MARXIST GOVERNMENT OF ANGOLA.
STARTING TWO MONTHS AGO, WITH HALF A BILLION DOLLARS
WORTH OF SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS RECENTLY ACQUIRED, THE SANDINISTA
ARMY WITH CUBAN HELICOPTER PILOTS AND COMBAT DIRECTION HAS
BEEN GOING ALL OUT TO DESTROY THE CONTRAS BEFORE CONGRESS
RENEWS ASSISTANCE TO THEM. LAST WEEK SOME 1,500 SANDINISTA
TROOPS CROSSED THE HONDURAN BORDER FOR THIS PURPOSE AND THIS
WEEK WE HAVE SEEN THOUSANDS OF MISKITO INDIANS IN THE EASTERN
PART OF NICARAGUA DRIVEN INTO HONDURAS.
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THE SOVIETS ARE ALSO MOVING HARD TU NAIL DOWN THEIR
BRIDGEHEADS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IN SOUTH YEMEN, WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN THE APPLICATION OF THE SO-CALLED BREZHNEV DOCTRINE
WHICH SAYS: "ONCE COMMUNIST, ALWAYS COMMUNIST." THE GOVERNMENT
THERE HAD BEGUN TO OPEN UP TU THE WEST. HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET
EXILES RETURNED FROM MOSCOW AND INITIATED A COUP AGAINST THE
SOUTH YEMEN PRESIDENT. THE COUP SOON ESCALATED INTO A BLOODY
CIVIL WAR BETWEEN MILITARY AND TRIBAL ELEMENTS LOYAL TO THE
PRESIDENT AND THOSE OF A HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET CAMP. AFTER THE.
SOVIETS WATCHED THE BLOOD FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS, PLANES FLOWN
BY SOVIET PILOTS BEGAN POUNDING PRO-GOVERNMENT FORCES AND
SOVIET WEAPONS BEGAN FLOWING TO REBEL FORCES. WE HAD SEEN
THIS MESSAGE BEFORE IN AFGHANISTAN IN 1979 AND GRENADA IN
1982. IT TELLS US THAT LEADERS OF GOVERNMENTS INSTALLED BY
MOSCOW WHO SEEK IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH THE WEST DO SO AT
THEIR PERIL. THE SOVIETS ARE NOT READY TO BROOK ANY CHALLENGE
IN ANY PART OF THEIR EMPIRE.
UNTIL RECENTLY, THE SOVIET HAND WAS MORE CAREFULLY SCREENED
AND SUBTLY USED IN THE MIDDLE EAST. TODAY, THE SOVIET INVESTMENT
IN SYRIA AND LIBYA IS AT AN ALL TIME HIGH WITH SOME 6,000 SOVIET
BLOC MILITARY ADVISORS AND A MASSIVE ARSENAL OF SOVIET PLANES,
TANKS AND ROCKETS. THOSE COUNTRIES, ALONG WITH IRAN, HAVE
DISCOVERED IN TERRORISM A LOW COST, LOW RISK MEANS OF ATTACKING
DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS IN EUROPE, THE MIDDLE EAST AND LATIN
AMERICA. TERRORISM TODAY IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE FOREIGN
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POLICY AND DEFENSE APPARATUS OF THESE STATES. TINY LIBYA
REACHES SOUTH INTO THE HEART OF AFRICA AND EAST TO PRESS,
TOGETHER WITH ETHIOPIA, ON SUDAN. WE SEE SYRIA PUSHING
HARD TO COMPLETE ITS DOMINATION OF LEBANON AND BRING
SOPHISTICATED SOVIET WEAPONS SOUTH CLOSER TO ISRAEL.
THE ONLY THING THE SOVIETS HAVE TO SELL IN THE MIDDLE EAST
IS MUNITIONS. THEY WILL EXPEND MAJOR EFFORT TO PRESERVE THE
TRADITIONALLY SOVIET-DOMINATED ARMS MARKETS IN IRAQ, ALGERIA,
AND NORTH YEMEN AGAINST WESTERN COMPETITION. THEY WILL WORK
TO EXPAND THE SOVIET SHARE OF TRADITIONALLY WESTERN-DOMINATED
MARKETS, PARTICULARLY IN JORDAN AND KUWAIT, AND TO WIN BACK
A SHARE OF THE MARKET IN EGYPT AND SUDAN. THEY ARE LIKELY TO
ENHANCE SOVIET OR SOVIET-CONTROLLED RECONNAISSANCE AND FIREPOWER
IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN. WE CAN EXPECT THEM
TO STEP UP THEIR EFFORTS TO REUNIFY THE PLO AND CONVINCE SYRIA
TO END ITS DISPUTES WITH ITS ARAB RIVALS.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT TO SABOTAGE US-SPONSORED PEACE
NEGOTIATIONS, MOSCOW MIGHT BACK AN AGGRESSIVE SYRIAN MILITARY
POSTURE TOWARD ISRAEL, ABANDON ARAFAT, THROW FULL SUPPORT
BEHIND THE LEFTIST AND SYRIAN-BACKED FACTIONS OF THE PLO,
AND PROVIDE GREATER BACKING FOR THE SUBVERSIVE EFFORTS OF
LIBYA AND OTHER RADICAL AND LEFTIST GROUPS.
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FROM THE NORTH, SYRIA, FROM THE WEST, LIBYA, FROM THE SOUTH,
ADEN AND FROM THE EAST, IRAN OR PERHAPS IRAQ -- ALL THREATEN
THE STABILITY OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SURROUND ISRAEL AND THE OIL FIELDS OF THE REGION. THE UNITED
STATES AND ISRAEL HAVE A SHARED VITAL INTEREST IN ARRESTING
THIS PATTERN OF SOVIET AND RADICAL EXPANSIONISM.
THIS CREEPING IMPERIALISM HAS, IN MY VIEW, TWO PRIMARY
TARGETS -- THE OIL FIELDS OF THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH ARE THE
LIFE LINE OF THE WESTERN ALLIANCE AND THE ISTHMUS BETWEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA. AFGHANISTAN, SOUTH YEMEN, ETHIOPIA,
AS WELL AS CAM RANH BAY IN VIETNAM, AND MOZAMBIQUE AND ANGOLA
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, BRING SOVIET POWER MUCH CLOSER TO THE
SOURCES OF OIL AND MINERALS ON WHICH THE INDUSTRIAL NATIONS
DEPEND AND PUTS SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR POWER ASTRIDE THE SEA
LANES WHICH CARRY THOSE RESOURCES TO AMERICA, EUROPE AND
JAPAN.
CAPABILITIES TO THREATEN THE PANAMA CANAL IN THE SHORT
TERM AND MEXICO IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER TERM ARE BEING DEVELOPED,
WITH SOVIET SUPPORT, BY CUBA AND NICARAGUA. THEY HAVE WORKED
QUIETLY AND STEADILY TOWARD THEIR OBJECTIVES OF BUILDING THE
POWER OF THE STATE SECURITY APPARATUS, BUILDING THE STRONGEST
ARMED FORCES IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND BECOMING A CENTER FOR
EXPORTING SUBVERSION TO NICARAGUA'S NEIGHBORS.
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THIS EXPANSION OF THE SOVIET EMPIRE, WHILE STILL THREATENING,
HAS BEEN SLOWED IF NOT HALTED. IN THE DECADE OF THE 1980s,
THE SOVIETS HAVE NOT ACQUIRED A SINGLE NEW COLONY. THE SOVIET
UNION CANNOT SUPPORT ITS EMPIRE ECONOMICALLY. FOR EVERY COUNTRY
THAT HAS EMBRACED IT, SOVIET MARXISM HAS BECOME A ONE-WAY
TICKET TO OPPRESSION AND POVERTY.
DURING THE 1970s, PEOPLE IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD WERE
FLOCKING TO JOIN COMMUNIST INSURGENCIES. IN THE 1980s, THIS
TREND HAS REVERSED. TODAY, SOME HALF MILLION PEOPLE AROUND
THE WORLD ARE FIGHTING IN RESISTANCE MOVEMENTS AGAINST COMMUNIST
REGIMES OR COMMUNIST OCCUPATION. AFGHANISTAN IS VIRTUALLY A
NATION-IN-ARMS FIGHTING AGAINST 120,000 SOVIET OCCUPATION
TROOPS. IN ANGOLA, SAVIMBI HAS SOME 60,000 FIGHTERS IN ALL
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BATTLING THE CUBANS, MARXIST ANGOLANS,
AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREAN AND TIGREAN REBELS
FIGHT THE MARXIST MENGISTU GOVERNMENT AND THE LARGEST ARMY IN
AFRICA WITH ITS CUBAN AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN KAMPUCHEA,
50,000 INSURGENTS STRUGGLE BITTERLY WITH 170,000 OCCUPYING
VIETNAMESE SOLDIERS.
THESE WARS OF NATIONAL LIBERATION BEING WAGED IN SOVIET
COLONIES ON THREE CONTINENTS REPRESENT A GEOPOLITICAL PHENOMENON
OF IMMENSE HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE. JUST AS THE THIRD WORLD
REJECTED WESTERN COLONIALISM IN THE 1950s AND 1960s, SO IT IS
NOW REJECTING SOVIET COLONIALISM IN THE 1980s. AND IT IS
USING THE SOVIETS' OWN STRATEGY OF ARMED GUERRILLA RESISTANCE
-- WARS OF LIBERATION -- TO DO SO.
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IF WE HOLD FIRM, THE PENDULUM OF HISTORY WILL COMPLETE
ITS SWING AWAY FROM SOVIET MARXISM AS A MODEL FOR COUNTRIES IN
ASIA, AFRICA, AND LATIN AMERICA, AND TOWARD THE CONCEPTS OF
DEMOCRACY AND A FREE MARKET ECONOMY. IN LATIN AMERICA, FOR
EXAMPLE, ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, URUGUAY, VENEZUELA, ECUADOR, PERU,
COLOMBIA, PANAMA, COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
ARE ALL FUNCTIONING DEMOCRACIES. THE SOVIETS HAVE OVER-EXPANDED
AND ARE ON THE DEFENSIVE. THE RADICAL ARAB STATES ARE WEAK
ECONOMICALLY AND WITHOUT FRIENDS POLITICALLY, WHILE EGYPT,
JORDAN AND OTHER ARAB MODERATES HAVE GOOD FRIENDS AND OUTSIDE
SUPPORT.
TO THWART THE THREAT OF SOVIET EXPANSIONISM AND RADICALISM
IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WE HAVE USED AND WILL EXPAND UPON THREE
INTER-RELATED STRATEGIES -- IMPROVED STRATEGIC COOPERATION, THE
PURSUIT OF PEACE, AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
IN THE LAST FEW YEARS THE UNITED STATES HAS STRENGTHENED
AND INVIGORATED ITS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH ISRAEL. AS
SECRETARY SHULTZ SAID HERE LAST YEAR, "STRATEGIC COOPERATION
BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL HAS BECOME A FORMAL,
INSTITUTIONAL PROCESS." I CAN ADD THAT THIS HAS INCLUDED
ENHANCED COOPERATION ON INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGES PARTICULARLY
ON TERRORISM. AT THE SAME TIME, WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED OUR
COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH FRIENDLY ARAB STATES WHO ALSO
SEE A SOVIET AND RADICAL DANGER.
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TOGETHER WE MUST FIGHT TERRORISM, A THREAT WHICH FACES
ALL OUR FRIENDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. MIDDLE EAST RADICALS
DEDICATED TO WEAKENING THE WEST AND ISRAEL ARE ALSO DEDICATED
TO THE DESTRUCTION OF MODERATE AND PRO-WESTERN REGIMES IN THE
ARAB WORLD -- DETERMINED THAT A PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT NEVER BE
REACHED -- DETERMINED TO POLARIZE THE ARAB WORLD SO THAT
ACCOMMODATION CAN NEVER BE REACHED, SO THAT ARAB STATES PURSUING
A PRAGMATIC COURSE COLLAPSE IN FRONT OF MARXIST OR FUNDAMENTALIST
ASSAULTS. THE SOVIET UNION, EVEN WHEN IT CANNOT ALWAYS CONTROL
THESE MOVEMENTS, PROFITS FROM THEM AS THEY WEAKEN OR ELIMINATE
AREAS OF WESTERN INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.
WE REMAIN DEEPLY COMMITTED TO PURSUING A POLITICAL PROCESS
TO END THE ARAB-ISRAELI DISPUTE. THE REINVIGORATION OF THE
PEACE PROCESS IS, IN MY VIEW, OF OVERRIDING GEOPOLITICAL
IMPORTANCE IN ORDER TO DENY THE SOVIETS A LEVER FOR ENTRE TO
THE MIDDLE EAST. WE REMAIN READY TO ASSIST THE PARTIES DIRECTLY
CONCERNED TO NEGOTIATE FACE TO FACE A SOLUTION TO THEIR DIFFERENCES.
WE REAFFIRMED THIS DETERMINATION TO PRIME MINISTER PERES LAST
WEEK.
FINALLY, WE ARE CONVINCED THAT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS
CRITICAL TO BUILDING BARRIERS TO RADICALISM AND SOVIET
IMPERIALISM. PRIME MINISTER PERES HAS PROPOSED JOINT ECONOMIC
COOPERATION AMONG ISRAEL, EGYPT, AND JORDAN UNDER A NEW "MARSHAL
PLAN" STYLE PROGRAM. ALREADY THE UNITED STATES PROVIDES MORE
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ECONOMIC AID TO THESE STATES THAN ANY OTHERS. WE ARE DETERMINED
TO STAND BY THIS COMMITMENT. WE HOPE THAT OTHER STATES WITH AN
INTEREST IN THE REGION -- INCLUDING THE EUROPEANS AND JAPAN --
WILL ENLIST IN REGIONAL ECONOMIC HELP.
STRATEGIC COOPERATION, DIPLOMACY FOR PEACE, AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT ARE THE KEYS TO MAINTAINING THE MOMENTUM BUILT IN
THE LAST YEARS TO HALTING SOVIET ADVANCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
WE HAVE VITAL INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND SHARED VALUES
WITH ISRAEL. WORKING TOGETHER WE MUST MAINTAIN THOSE VALUES
IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE MEDITERRANEAN AND ELSEWHERE.
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