ESTIMATE OF FATALITIES AT CHERNOBYL REACTOR ACCIDENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88G01117R000401020003-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 5, 2011
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: May 2, 1986
• Content Type: CABLE

(' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/29: CIA-RDP88G01117R000401020003-1 ?
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TOR: 02015OZ MAY 86 STATE 137633
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S E C R?1 STATE 137633 TOSEC 080322
NOFORN
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: OVIP (SHULTZ, GEORGE P.)
SUBJECT: ESTIMATE OF FATALITIES AT CHERNOBYL REACTOR
ACCIDENT
INFORMATION MEMO (S/S 8613863)
TO : THE SECRETARY
FROM ; INR ? MORTON I. ABRAMOWITZ
SUBJECT: S IMATE OF FATALITIES AT CHERNOBYL REACTOR
ACCIDENT
1. THE ENTIRE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY BELIEVES A FATALITY
FIGURE OF TWO IS PREPOSTEROUS.
2. A NORMAL DAY SHIFT AT AN INDIVICUAL SOVIET RBMK?1000
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/29: CIA-RDP88G01117R000401020003-1
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POWER REACTOR IS REPORTED TO BE AROUND 100 PEOPLE; A
NIGHT SHIFT WOULD BE 25-35 PEOPLE. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT'
BECAUSE UNIT 3 AND 4 ARE ADJACENT, AS MANY AS 200 PEOPLE
IN THE DAYTIME OR 50-70 PEOPLE AT NIGHT COULD HAVE BEEN
WORKING IN THE VICINITY OF REACTOR UNIT 4 WHEN THE
ACCIDENT BEGAN. WHILE WE WOULD EXPECT THAT AN IMMEDIATE
EVACUATION WAS ORDERED AMEN THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE
ACCIDENT BECAME APPARENT, STILL A FAIRLY LARGE CREW
(COMPARED TO US REACTOR OPERATIONS) WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO CARRY OUT EMERGENCY PROCEDURES IN AN ATTEMPT TO
SHUT DOWN THE REACTOR AND TO SOLVE WHATEVER PROBLEM MAY
HAVE CAUSED THE ACCIDENT. THIS CREW WOULD BE A "FORLORN
HOPE," KEPT AT THE SITE IN ORDER TO RECTIFY THE PROBLEM,
BUT WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THEY WOULD BE LOST SHOULD THE
PROBLEM WORSEN DRAMATICALLY. THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE TO
THIS WOULD BE TO ABANDON THE SITE IMMEDIATELY AT THE SIGN
OF MAJOR PROBLEMS, WHICH WOULD VIRTUALLY INSURE THE SORT
OF DISASTER THAT ULTIMATELY OCCURED.
3. IF THE ACCIDENT SITUATION LASTED FOR ANY AMOUNT OF
TIME WE WOULD EXPECT THE EMERGENCY CREW TO BE AUGMENTED
AS THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION BECAME KNOWN. SHIFT
SUPERVISORS AND FOREMEN FROM THE OTHER UNITS WOULD BE
CALLED IN TO MAKE SURE THAT APPROPRIATE ACTIONS WERE
BEING TAKEN TO HEAD OFF ANY POTENTIAL CATASTROPHE.
IMAGERY SHOWING FIRE ENGINES AND EMERGENCY VEHICLES NEAR
THE REACTORS SUPPORTS THE SUPPOSITION THAT ADDITIONAL
PERSONNEL WERE RESPONDING TO THE ACCIDENT. THEY COULD
ONLY HAVE BEEN BROUGHT IN BEFORE ANY EXPLOSION. BASED ON
NUMBERS OF VEHICLES IN THE AREA AND POSTULATING AN
AUGMENTED EMERGENCY CREW, AS MUCH AS 100 PEOPLE COULD
HAVE-BEEN IN THE IMPEDIA
OR -STE-A
OCCURRED, -UPPI
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4. BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE OBSERVED ON
IMAGERY OF THE SITE, WE FEEL THAT ALL THE PEOPLE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UNIT 4 EXPLOSION WERE EITHER
KILLED OR SUFFERED LETHAL RADIATION DOSES AT THE TIME OF
THE EXPLOSION' THE FAILURE OF THE SOVIETS TO EVACUATE
THE FIRE ENGINES FROM THE LETHAL RADIATION ZONE AROUND
SECRET ,
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/29: CIA-RDP88G01117R000401020003-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/29: CIA-RDP88G01117R000401020003-1
86 0749286 SSO PAGE 003 NC 0749286
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THE DESTROYED REACTOR BUILDING IS AKOTHER INDICATION OF
FATALITIES' (SECRET/NOFORN) WHITEPEAD
END OF MESSAGE SECRET
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