REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP88G01116R001202400005-8
Release Decision:
RIFPUB
Original Classification:
K
Document Page Count:
15
Document Creation Date:
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date:
October 15, 2010
Sequence Number:
5
Case Number:
Publication Date:
March 21, 1986
Content Type:
MISC
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CIA-RDP88G01116R001202400005-8.pdf | 549.89 KB |
Body:
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REMARKS OF WILLIAM J. CASEY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
AT THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY
ARMED FORCES STAFF COLLEGE
NORFOLK, VIRGINIA
FRIDAY, 21 MARCH 1986
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Executive Registry
86~4
104--12
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MY SUBJECT TODAY IS THE STRATEGIC BALANCE BETWEEN THE
SOVIET BLOC AND THE WESTERN ALLIANCE AND HOW IT HAS BOTH
BEEN TAKING ON NEW DIMENSIONS AND SERIOUSLY ERODING.
FROM THE BEGINNING, THE SOVIETS HAD DOMINANCE IN LAND
WARFARE. THIS WAS COUNTERED BY OUR SUPERIORITY IN STRATEGIC
FORCES. BY 1980, THE SOVIET STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE FORCES HAD
CAUGHT UP AND, IN MANY KEY AREAS, SURPASSED OURS. EVER SINCE
1980, THE UNITED STATES HAS ACTED TO MODERNIZE ITS STRATEGIC
FORCES; THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN DOING MORE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
SOVIETS ARE NOW PROTECTING THEIR LAND MISSILE FORCE BY MAKING
MUCH OF IT MOBILE, WHEREAS THE U.S. MOBILE ICBM WILL NOT BE
DEPLOYED UNTIL THE 1990s.
PERHAPS MOST ALARMING, THE SOVIETS HAVE INVESTED BETWEEN
15 AND 20 YEARS OF RESEARCH ON THEIR STRATEGIC DEFENSES--
SOMETHING WE HAVE IGNORED TO OUR PERIL. AS YOU KNOW, THEY
HAVE COMPLETED A BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM AROUND MOSCOW.
WE HAVE NO COMPARABLE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS FEVERISH EFFORT
TO BUILD THEIR OWN STRATEGIC DEFENSES, THE SOVIETS LOUDLY
BEAT THE PROPAGANDA DRUM IN AN EFFORT TO SCUTTLE THE PRESIDENT'S
EFFORT TO BUILD A CREDIBLE STRATEGIC DEFENSE OF OUR OWN.
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EVEN AT A TIME OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTY AND A REORDERING OF
DOMESTIC PRIORITIES, SOVIET DEFENSE PROGRAMS HAVE BEEN PROTECTED.
INDEED, THE CURRENT HIGH LEVEL OF MILITARY SPENDING WILL CONTINUE
TO GROW. DESPITE OUR OWN INCREASES IN DEFENSE SPENDING OVER THE
PAST FIVE YEARS, THE UNITED STATES HAS ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN TO
CATCH UP WITH SOVIET WEAPONS ACQUISITION PROGRAMS.
NOW, THIS HUGE MILITARY FORCE MAY NEVER BE USED AGAINST
THE. UNITED STATES OR ITS NATO ALLIES. THE LARGER THREAT MAY
LIE ELSEWHERE. THE SOVIETS' MASSIVE NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL
FORCES MAY BE ONLY A SHIELD FOR MOTHER RUSSIA, MAKING IT EASIER
AND LESS RISKY FOR THE SOVIETS TO INTIMIDATE WEAKER GOVERNMENTS
AND TO GOBBLE UP PIECES OF TERRITORY AROUND THE GLOBE.
THE SOVIETS HAVE ACQUIRED BRIDGEHEADS IN CUBA AND VIETNAM,
AND CLIENT STATES IN SOUTH YEMEN, ETHIOPIA, ANGOLA, KAMPUCHEA,
NICARAGUA, AND AFGHANISTAN. SINCE COMING TO POWER A YEAR AGO,
SOVIET PARTY LEADER GORBACHEV HAS MOVED STRONGLY TO STRENGTHEN
THE SOVIET HOLD ON THESE COUNTRIES WHICH ARE LOCATED EITHER NEAR
STRATEGIC CHOKE POINTS OR IN AREAS OF ALMOST CERTAIN REGIONAL
CONFLICT. THEY ARE BEING LINKED, MOREOVER, IN A GROWING LOGISTIC
AND MUTUAL SUPPORT NETWORK THAT DEPENDS ON EXPANDING SOVIET
NAVAL AND AIR POWER.
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TAKE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE SOVIET POSITION IN THE CARIBBEAN.
THE SOVIETS HAVE CREATED IN CUBA THE STRONGEST MILITARY FORCE
IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE; WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR OWN. OVER
THE LAST FEW YEARS THEY HAVE GIVEN CUBA MASSIVE INFUSIONS OF
MIG-23 AIRCRAFT, T-62 TANKS, ARTILLERY PIECES AND MULTIPLE
ROCKET LAUNCH SYSTEMS, INFANTRY COMBAT VEHICLES, ANTI-AIRCRAFT
GUNS, HELICOPTER GUNSHIPS, SA-2 AND SA-6 SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILES,
FAST TORPEDO AND MISSILE ATTACK BOATS AND FOXTROT-CLASS SUBMARINES.
THE SOVIETS THEMSELVES HAVE AT THEIR OWN MILITARY BASES IN CUBA
4,500 SOVIET TROOPS AND ADVISORS AND THE LARGEST INTELLIGENCE
COLLECTION AND ELECTRONIC MONITORING CAPABILITY OUTSIDE THE
SOVIET UNION.
TODAY, WE HAVE AN EXTENSION OF THIS BASE ON THE AMERICAN
MAINLAND IN NICARAGUA.
EVEN NOW, CUBAN CONSTRUCTION CREWS ARE COMPLETING, OUTSIDE
MANAGUA, THE LARGEST MILITARY AIRBASE IN CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN
FINISHED, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ACCOMMODATING SOVIET JET FIGHTERS,
HEAVY TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT, AND TU-95 BOMBERS. SOVIET RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT NOW ROUTINELY FLY FROM THE KOLA PENINSULA IN THE SOVIET
ARCTIC TO CUBAN AIRFIELDS AND ON TO ANGOLA. WHEN THE NEW FIELD
IS OPERATIONAL, THE SOVIETS WILL BE ABLE TO FLY FROM THE SOVIET
HOMELAND TO NICARAGUA, REFUEL THERE, AND CONTINUE BY WAY OF THE
PACIFIC TO AIR BASES IN THE SOVIET FAR EAST.
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IN ADDITION, THE ALREADY SHORT, DIRECT SEA CONNECTION
BETWEEN CUBA AND NICARAGUA WILL BE MADE EVEN SHORTER NEXT YEAR
WHEN THE BULGARIANS COMPLETE A MAJOR PORT FACILITY ON THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. NOW IF THIS WERE USED ONLY FOR
NICARAGUAN EXPORTS, THAT WOULD BE FINE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
EXISTING PORT IS USED FOR WHOLESALE IMPORTATION OF SOVIET
WEAPONS. THE NEW PORT WILL SIMPLY MAKE THEIR TRANSSHIPMENT
FROM CUBA ALL THE MORE EFFICIENT.
SIMILAR LINKS AND COMPONENTS OF THIS NETWORK HAVE BEEN
ESTABLISHED AROUND THE GLOBE. FROM ANGOLA, SOVIET NAVAL AND
AIR FORCES NOW ROUTINELY OPERATE ASTRIDE WESTERN SHIPPING LANES
IN THE ATLANTIC. THESE FORCES DEPEND ON A GROWING WEST AFRICAN
MARXIST BASE MANNED AND PROTECTED BY NEARLY 2,000 SOVIET BLOC
ADVISORS, 35,000 CUBAN TROOPS, AND A LOCAL ANGOLAN GOVERNMENT
ARMY OF 100,000.
THE MEDITERRANEAN SEGMENT OF THIS SOVIET GLOBAL NETWORK
IS ANCHORED AT LIBYA AND SYRIA. SOME 6,000 SOVIET BLOC ADVISORS
AID THESE COUNTRIES. THEIR PRESENCE MAKES ACHIEVEMENT OF A
LASTING PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST LESS LIKELY, AND THEY ALSO
PROVIDE THE "GROUND CREWS" FOR RAPID EXPANSION OF SOVIET MILITARY
POWER IN THE REGION.
SIMILARLY, THIS NETWORK THREATENS WESTERN SEA LANES IN
THE RED SEA, ARABIAN SEA, AND INDIAN OCEAN FROM BASES IN ETHIOPIA
AND SOUTH YEMEN. BASE RIGHTS IN THESE AND SOME OTHER COUNTRIES
ENABLE THE SOVIETS TO OPERATE THEIR NAVAL FORCES OVER EXTENDED
PERIODS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.
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FINALLY, SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR FORCES OPERATING OUT OF
OUR FORMER BASES AT CAM RANH BAY AND DA NANG IN VIETNAM COMMAND
THE VITAL SEA LANES LINKING JAPAN, TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA WITH
MIDDLE EAST OIL SUPPLIES AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN ALLIES. THESE
BASES PERMIT THE SOVIETS TO OPERATE ROUTINELY FROM NAVAL AND
AIR BASES IN THE SOVIET FAR EAST DOWN THE CHINA COAST AND
THREATEN CLARK FIELD AND SUBIC BAY IN THE PHILIPPINES, WHICH
ARE CRITICAL TO THE DEFENSE OF OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES THROUGHOUT
THE PACIFIC.
NOW, THE WEST COULD COPE IF THE SOVIETS WERE MERELY
INTERESTED IN ACQUIRING OVERSEAS MILITARY BASES AND COLONIES.
BUT THE SOVIETS SHOW NO INTENTION OF STOPPING THERE.
THESE BRIDGEHEADS ARE BEING USED TO SPREAD SUBVERSION,
TERROR, AND DESTABILIZATION, AND SPAWN NEW BRIDGEHEADS IN
NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. FROM NICARAGUA, TERRORISM AND
SUBVERSION ARE BEING EXPORTED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO CHILE, COLOMBIA AND ELSEWHERE IN LATIN AMERICA. THE
NICARAGUANS HAVE PROVIDED SAFEHAVEN AND TRAINING TO SEVERAL
LATIN AMERICAN GUERRILLA GROUPS. NICARAGUA HAS ALSO SERVED AS
A TRANSFER POINT FOR DRUG TRAFFIC EN ROUTE TO THE U.S. FROM
LIBYA, THERE IS INVASION OF CHAD, ATTEMPTS AT DESTABILIZING
GOVERNMENTS IN EGYPT AND TUNISIA, ZAIRE AND SUDAN, AND SUBVERSION
THROUGHOUT WEST AFRICA. FROM ANGOLA, THERE ARE INTRUSIONS
INTO ZAIRE. FROM SOVIET-OCCUPIED AFGHANISTAN, THERE HAVE BEEN
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ARMED INTRUSIONS INTO PAKISTAN AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN IRAN.
SINCE 1964, NORTH KOREA HAS BEEN DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN SUBVERSION
AND TERRORISM IN AT LEAST TWENTY-EIGHT COUNTRIES. THEY ARE
KNOWN TO HAVE PROVIDED GUERRILLA TRAINING TO GROUPS IN FORTY-TWO
COUNTRIES, WHILE SUPPLYING ARMS AND FUNDING TO TERRORISTS IN
THIRTY-THREE COUNTRIES. NORTH KOREA IS ALSO KNOWN TO HAVE
SMUGGLED DRUGS AND CONTRABAND, KIDNAPPED AND ASSASSINATED
SOUTH KOREAN OFFICIALS, AND ILLEGALLY ACQUIRED ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY.
THE SOVIETS AND THEIR FRIENDS HAVE DISCOVERED IN TERRORISM
A LOW-COST, LOW-RISK MEANS OF ATTACKING DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS
IN EUROPE, THE MIDDLE EAST, AND LATIN AMERICA. UNFORTUNATELY,
SOME VICTIM NATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN EUROPE, HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY
RELUCTANT TO PUNISH THOSE WHO TERRORIZE THEIR LAND AND PEOPLE.
THE MAJOR TERRORIST STRIKES OF 1985 MAY SEEM DIVERSE,
IN TERMS BOTH OF LOCATION AND STATED OBJECTIVES. BUT THERE
ARE TWO COMMON THREADS:
1. THE ATTACKS WERE DIRECTED AGAINST WESTERN (OR
PRO-WESTERN) TARGETS. THE SOLE EXCEPTION WAS THE KIDNAPPING
OF FOUR SOVIET EMBASSY OFFICIALS IN BEIRUT BY AN OBSCURE SUNNI
MOSLEM GROUP. THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE ABDUCTIONS REMAIN
MURKY. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THANKS TO PROMPT INTERVENTION
BY SYRIAN AND IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE, THE PRIME SPONSORS OF
LEBANESE TERRORISM, THE THREE SURVIVING SOVIETS WERE SOON FREED.
THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE LONG AGONY OF THE SIX U.S. HOSTAGES IN
THE HANDS OF THE ISLAMIC JIHAD IN THE BEKAA VALLEY.
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2. THE MAJOR TERRORIST STRIKES INVOLVED AN ELABORATE
SUPPORT APPARATUS, AND MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS INFRASTRUCTURE
WERE THE SOVIET BLOC AND ITS REGIONAL SATELLITES AND SUBCONTRACTORS.
THE LIST INCLUDES BULGARIA, CUBA, CZECHOSLOVAKIA, EAST GERMANY,
LIBYA, NICARAGUA, NORTH KOREA AND SYRIA. WE BELIEVE THAT THE
SECRET SERVICES OF MANY OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVOLVED IN
THE SELECTION OF TERRORIST TARGETS.
TERRORISM TODAY IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE FOREIGN POLICY
AND DEFENSE APPARATUS OF SOME STATES. LIBYA, IRAN AND NICARAGUA,
FOR EXAMPLE, HAVE THREATENED WAVES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE
EVENT THE U.S. OR OTHER WESTERN NATIONS TAKE MILITARY ACTION
AGAINST THEM.
WE FACE A "RADICAL ENTENTE" CONSISTING OF IRAN, LIBYA,
NORTH KOREA, CUBA, AND SYRIA, ALL SEEKING TO UNDERMINE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES IN MANY PARTS OF
THE GLOBE. SPOKESMEN FOR THE TEHERAN REGIME HAVE EXPRESSED
APPROVAL OF THE MASSACRES AT ROME AND VIENNA AIRPORTS, AND
PLEDGED FULL SUPPORT FOR LIBYAN DICTATOR QADHAFI, THE SPONSOR
OF THE ATTACKS, IN THE FACE OF THREATENED U.S. REPRISALS.
THIS GIVES A SHARPER EDGE TO QADHAFI'S RECENT THREATS TO SEND
ASSASSINS AND SUICIDE BOMBERS TO THE UNITED STATES, SINCE
THE IRANIAN PRESENCE IN NORTH AMERICA IS CONSIDERABLY LARGER
THAN THAT OF THE LIBYANS.
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WE SEE ENHANCED COOPERATION BETWEEN EUROPEAN TERRORIST
GROUPS TARGETING NATO INSTALLATIONS. WESTERN SECURITY OFFICIALS
ARE GROWING CONCERNED THAT ARMENIAN TERRORIST NETWORKS MAY BE
MOBILIZED IN A NEW WAVE OF ATTACKS ON U.S., NATO AND ISRAELI
TARGETS AS WELL AS THE ARMENIAN UNDERGROUND'S TRADITIONAL
ENEMY, TURKEY. ARMENIAN TERRORISTS ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING
TRAINING AND OTHER SUPPORT AT FACILITIES IN IRAN, SYRIA AND IN
THE SYRIAN-OCCUPIED BEKAA VALLEY IN LEBANON. IN THE RECENT
PAST, THE ARMENIAN GROUPS WERE TRAINED IN LEBANON AND SOUTH
YEMEN BY FACTIONS OF THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION.
TODAY WE ARE SEEING GROWING PLO SUPPORT OF HIZBALLAH TERRORISTS
IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT TASKS FOR INTELLIGENCE IN THE
YEARS AHEAD WILL BE TO PENETRATE THE SMALL, FANATICAL GROUPS
WHICH CARRY OUT THE CRIMINAL ACTS OF MURDER, ROBBERY, BOMBING
AND KIDNAPPING. THESE GROUPS ARE UTTERLY WITHOUT MORAL
RESTRAINT, AND HOLD INNOCENT PEOPLE IN COMPLETE CONTEMPT.
YET ANOTHER WORRISOME PROBLEM FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT IS
THE SPREAD OF SMALL WARS, MANY OF WHICH ARE WAGED BY PROXY.
THERE ARE PRESENTLY FORTY-TWO CONFLICTS THAT INVOLVE SOME FOUR
MILLION PEOPLE IN WARS, REBELLIONS, OR UPRISINGS. FEW OF
THESE CONFLICTS HAVE BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED. THIS AMBIGUITY
ABOUT HOSTILITIES PLACES A SPECIAL PREMIUM ON EFFECTIVE
INTELLIGENCE.
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THE SOVIET UNION HAS PRESSED TO THE HILT ITS USE OF PROXY
NATIONS TO CARRY OUT ITS WARS ABROAD. IT IS PERFECTLY CONTENT
TO RELY ON OUR FEAR OF WIDER--ESPECIALLY, NUCLEAR--WAR TO KEEP
US LARGELY PARALYZED.
TO FURTHER TILT THE BALANCE AGAINST THE WEST, THE SOVIETS
ARE NOW SPENDING $4 BILLION A YEAR IN CUBA, $1 BILLION A YEAR
IN ANGOLA, SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION IN NICARAGUA, $4 BILLION
A YEAR IN AFGHANISTAN, AND MORE THAN ANOTHER BILLION IN VIETNAM.
THIS EFFORT IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A FLOOD OF WEAPONS THAT
POURS OUT OF THE GREAT ARMS DEPOT AT NIKOLAYEV ON THE BLACK
SEA TO PRO-SOVIET REGIMES AND INSURGENT GROUPS ALL OVER THE
WORLD.
WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO PREVENT THIS SOVIET TEN BILLION DOLLAR
ANNUAL INVESTMENT FROM PRODUCING EVEN MORE HOSTILE BASES AND
ERODING THE STRATEGIC BALANCE EVEN MORE RAPIDLY?
DURING THE 1960s AND 1970s, PEOPLE IN MANY PARTS OF THE
WORLD WERE FLOCKING TO JOIN COMMUNIST INSURGENCIES. IN THE
1980s, THIS TREND HAS REVERSED. TODAY, SOME HALF MILLION
PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD ARE FIGHTING IN RESISTANCE MOVEMENTS
AGAINST COMMUNIST REGIMES OR COMMUNIST OCCUPATION. AFGHANISTAN
IS VIRTUALLY A NATION-IN-ARMS FIGHTING AGAINST 120,000 SOVIET
OCCUPATION TROOPS. IN ANGOLA, SAVIMBI HAS SOME 60,000 FIGHTERS
IN ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BATTLING THE CUBANS, MARXIST ANGOLANS,
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AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREAN AND TIGREAN REBELS
FIGHT THE MARXIST MENGISTU GOVERNMENT AND THE LARGEST ARMY IN
AFRICA WITH ITS CUBAN AND SOVIET ADVISORS. IN KAMPUCHEA,
50,000 INSURGENTS STRUGGLE BITTERLY WITH 170,000 OCCUPYING
VIETNAMESE SOLDIERS. IN MARXIST NICARAGUA, 20,000 RESISTANCE
FIGHTERS--MOST OF THEM CAMPESINOS DRIVEN FROM THEIR HOMES BY
THE REGIME--ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN AGAINST 120,000 SANDINISTA
TROOPS AND MILITIA ARMED WITH THE LATEST SOVIET ASSAULT HELICOPTERS
AND TANKS.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS DEMOCRACY HAS
TAKEN HOLD OR MADE GREAT PROGRESS IN EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS,
GUATEMALA, ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, PAKISTAN AND OTHER COUNTRIES.
JUST THIS YEAR,-ONE-MAN RULE IN HAITI AND THE PHILIPPINES
HAS BEEN REPLACED BY GOVERNMENTS COMMITTED TO A DEMOCRATIC
FUTURE. WE CAN PARTICULARLY REJOICE AT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT
IN THE PHILIPPINES WHERE THE WHOLE NATION TOOK PART IN AN
ELECTION--QUITE FREE, THOUGH MARRED BY FRAUD--IN WHICH LARGE
NUMBERS OF PEOPLE USED NON-VIOLENT POPULAR EXPRESSION TO FREE
THEMSELVES OF TWO DECADES OF MARTIAL LAW. NOW WE MUST HELP
HAITI RESIST CUBAN SUBVERSION AND THE AQUINO GOVERNMENT DEAL
WITH A SAGGING ECONOMY AND COMMUNIST INSURGENCY IN THE PHILIPPINES.
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DESPITE THESE VALIANT EFFORTS TO SHAKE OFF THE SOVIET
YOKE, THE OUTCOME OF MANY LIBERATION STRUGGLES IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN. THE SOVIETS CAN BE EXPECTED TO REACT VIOLENTLY TO
INSURGENCY, POPULAR REBELLION, OR EVEN ATTEMPTS BY LESSER
MARXIST GOVERNMENTS TO LIBERALIZE THEIR REGIMES.
DURING THE BREZHNEV ERA, THE SOVIETS ANNOUNCED THE
SO-CALLED BREZHNEV DOCTRINE WHICH SAYS, IN EFFECT, "ONCE
COMMUNIST, ALWAYS COMMUNIST." THERE IS EVERY INDICATION
THAT--DESPITE HIS SMILES AND SMOOTH MANNER--GORBACHEV WILL
APPLY THAT DOCTRINE WITH RENEWED VIGOR. NOW THIS IS NOT NEW.
DURING THE 1950s AND 60s THE SOVIETS INSTALLED WHOMEVER THEY
PLEASED AS LEADERS IN EASTERN EUROPE. YOU MAY RECALL THEIR
VIOLENT REMOVAL OF ALEXANDER DUBCEK AND INSTALLMENT OF THE
PUPPET HUSAK REGIME IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN 1968. THE SOVIET
APPARATUS ALSO REMOVED--AND MURDERED--TWO PUPPET PRESIDENTS
IN AFGHANISTAN IN 1979, AS WELL AS BISHOP IN GRENADA IN 1982.
IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET ELEMENTS IN
THE SOUTH YEMEN GOVERNMENT INITIATED A COUP AGAINST PRESIDENT
ALI NASSER. THE COUP SOON ESCALATED INTO A BLOODY CIVIL WAR
BETWEEN MILITARY AND TRIBAL ELEMENTS LOYAL TO ALI NASSER AND
THOSE OF THE HARDLINE PRO-SOVIET CAMP. AFTER WATCHING THE
BLOOD FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS, THE SOVIETS THREW THEIR UNRESERVED
SUPPORT TO THE PRO-SOVIET YEMENI VICE PRESIDENT, THEN IN MOSCOW,
WHO WAS SPEEDILY CONFIRMED BY THE YEMENI POLITBURO AS THE NEW
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PRESIDENT. SOVIET PLANES POUNDED PRO-GOVERNMENT FORCES AND
SOVIET WEAPONS WERE IMMEDIATELY FLOWN TO REBEL FORCES. THE
MESSAGE IN ALL THESE CASES IS CLEAR: LEADERS OF GOVERNMENTS
INSTALLED BY MOSCOW WHO SEEK IMPROVED RELATIONS WITH THE WEST
DO SO AT THEIR PERIL. THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR THAT THE SOVIETS
WILL BROOK NO CHALLENGES IN ANY PART OF THEIR EMPIRE.
THE BRUTALITY OF THE COMMUNIST REGIMES AGAINST WHICH
MANY PEOPLES HAVE RISEN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN MILLIONS OF THEIR
FELLOW COUNTRYMEN INTO EXILE. OUR FAILURE TO SUPPORT THEIR
STRUGGLES WILL SEND MILLIONS MORE OUR WAY. WE SEEM TO HAVE
ALREADY FORGOTTEN THE TRAGIC EXPERIENCE OF THE "BOAT PEOPLE"
FROM VIETNAM AND KAMPUCHEA.
COMMUNIST-INITIATED VIOLENCE AROUND THE WORLD HAS RESULTED
IN THOUSANDS OF DEATHS ATTRIBUTABLE DIRECTLY TO ATTACKS OR TO
PLAIN MURDER BY OCCUPATION FORCES.. THOUSANDS MORE HAVE DIED
OF STARVATION, DISEASE, OR EXPOSURE. AND MILLIONS HAVE BEEN
MADE REFUGEES. IN AFGHANISTAN, FOR EXAMPLE, FULLY ONE QUARTER
OF THE PRE-WAR POPULATION--NEARLY FOUR MILLION PEOPLE--HAS FLED
FROM THE TERRORS OF SOVIET OCCUPATION. IN CENTRAL AMERICA,
THE STORY IS THE SAME. THOUSANDS HAVE BEEN KILLED OR EXECUTED
BY THE SANDINISTAS AND THE SALVADORAN COMMUNISTS, AND FULLY
A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE MADE REFUGEES. IN ETHIOPIA,
THE MARXIST GOVERNMENT HAS SQUANDERED ITS MEAGER FINANCIAL
RESOURCES ON BUYING SOVIET WEAPONS WHILE VIRTUALLY IGNORING
THE AGONIZING FAMINE THAT HAS KILLED THOUSANDS OF ITS PEOPLE.
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ETHIOPIA'S ONLY RESPONSE HAS BEEN TO FORCE-MARCH OTHER THOUSANDS
FROM THEIR HOMES IN THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN NORTH TO ILL-PREPARED
CAMPS IN THE SOUTH. THE PLIGHT OF KAMPUCHEA IS UNBELIEVABLE.
IN FIVE YEARS, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT YET ANOTHER MILLION
KAMPUCHEANS HAVE BEEN KILLED, DIED OF MALNUTRITION, OR FLED
FROM THE RAPACIOUS VIETNAMESE OCCUPATION.
IN THE PAST, THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEALT WITH ALL OF THESE
ISSUES AS SEPARATE PROBLEMS. THE GROWING AWARENESS THAT ALL
OF THESE ARE INTERDEPENDENT, AND THAT THEY THREATEN THE NATIONAL
SECURITY IN A COORDINATED WAY ACROSS A BROAD FRONT, IS CHANGING
THE WAY THE ADMINISTRATION ADDRESSES THESE ISSUES. EACH
COMPONENT OF THE DEFENSE BUDGET, ARMS CONTROL POLICY, INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND FOREIGN AID POLICY NEEDS TO BE INTEGRATED
INTO A COHERENT PROGRAM TO COMBAT THESE THREATS ACROSS THE
BOARD. EVEN AS THE ADMINISTRATION SEEKS TO COUNTER THE SOVIET
STRATEGIC THREAT WITH SDI, AND TO COUNTER THE WARSAW PACT
CONVENTIONAL ADVANTAGE WITH A STRENGTHENING OF OUR CONVENTIONAL
FORCES, WE MUST HELP THESE VICTIMS OF TERRORISM AND SUBVERSION
DEFEND THEMSELVES.
INCREASINGLY, THERE IS BROAD RECOGNITION THAT THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY HAS A RESPONSIBILITY ON BEHALF OF THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT
FOR "SCOUTING THE FUTURE." NOWEHERE ELSE IN GOVERNMENT IS THERE
THE INFORMATION, EXPERTISE, OR RESOURCES TO LOOK ACROSS THE BROAD
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SPECTRUM OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, MILITARY,
SOCIOLOGICAL, AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS TAKING PLACE, AND
TO DISTILL FROM THEM CAREFUL ASSESSMENTS OF PROBLEMS WE WILL
FACE NOW AND PAST THE YEAR 2000.
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