CONFERENCE ON REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88G01116R000500530006-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 17, 2011
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: October 23, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
STAT
STAT
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Conference on Revolutionary Change
FROM:
D/OGI
3G00 HQ
4.
D/OGI
3G00 HQ,.
FAR"'' 610 (DIT
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
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22 October 1986:,--
COMMENTS (Number ?och `comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
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ADMINISTRATIVE-INTERNAL USE ONLY
2 3 OCT 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA:
STATFROM:
SUBJECT:
Executive Director
Deputy Director for Intelligenc't
rec or of-Global Issues
Conference on Revolutionary Change
DDI- __ _____ -GIr
1. Action Requested: You consent to give the opening An'
remarks on the concluding day of a two-da A
conference on Revolutionary Change. The conferencesisnscheduled
for 20-21 Novembe at the Vista International Hotel in - tre
Washington, D.C. (je are asking the DCI to make the opening /r?
remarks on the first day of the conferencjjand also asking the 10
DDI to participate in the conference program.
2. Background: The conference is based on the belief that a
deep understanding of the process of revolutionary change in
Third World is critically important to the United States and that
there are scholars in a variety of universities and research
institutions who can assist our DI analysts as they attempt to
grapple with this issue. Our main goals for the conference are
to expand out dialogue with these outside specialist and develop
a framework that Intelligence Community analysts and collectors
can use in assessing the potential for revolutionary change in
their countries. As shown on the attached agenda, the first day
of the conference will focus mainly on developing such a
framework; efforts the second day will apply the theory to
specific countries.
3. We believe that we are assembling an excellent cast of
scholars for the conference from across the country. Should you
agree to make the opening remarks on the second day, we will
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nLi?11 #I1.711[tiliVr+-11Vl r1[LV liL U.7r+ UIV Ll
SUBJECT: Conference on Revolutionary Change
provide draft talking points well in advance of the session. In
view of the structure of the conference, these remarks could
focus on the importance of applying general frameworks and theory
to analysis of real problems in the contemporary, world.
Attachment:
As stated
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Date
2
ADMINISTRATIVE-INTERNAL USE ONLY
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HUM11V1.7irtkti1 VL-iL'M i. R1VttL U.7 LJ JLVLS
SUBJECT: Conference on Revolutionary Change
DDI/OGI/FSIC) I(22 Oct 86)
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee and return to OGI
1 - DDCI
1 - ExDir
1 - ExReg
1 - DDI
1 - DDI Reg
1 - D/OGI
1 - OGI/FSIC
1 - FSIC/PIB
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Global Issues Conference on
Revolutionary Change
Thursday, 20 November 1986
8:30
- 9:00 Pre-Conference Mixer
Coffee, Past
ries
9:00
- 9:05 Welcoming Remarks
9:05
- 9:20 A Suggested Analytical Fram
ework
- Antecedent conditions; inequitable distribution of
wealth, ethnic divisions, "youth bulge", etc.
- Perception of grievance, injustice, relative
deprivation
- Politicization and Mobilization; strategy,
organization, leadership, ideology, etc.
- Revolutionary Action; political action, terrorism,
armed struggle
- Countervailing forces; government response,
repression, adaptive change, non-govt forces,
- Outcomes of Revolutionary Conflict; victory,
defeat, stalemate
Moderator/Presenter
9:20 - 10:00 Theoretical Overview (1 presenter)
Recent Trends in Revolutionary Theory
Key Issues: What theoretical work is most likely to provide insights into the process of
revolutionary change in the contemporary world?
Presenter: Dr. Jack Goldstone, Northwestern
10:00 - 10:05 Coffee Break
10:05 - 11:15 A Case Study: Chile, (2 presenters, 1 discussant)
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Analysis of Developments and Prospects
Issues as seen from three perspectives: the Foreign Service, the Congressional Staff, and the
University
Presenter: Ambassador Lincoln Gordon, a career FSO, Amb. Gordon served
as US Ambassador to Brazil
Presenter: Dr. Mark Falcoff, Staff of Senate Foreign Affairs Committee
Discussant: Dr. Paul Sigmund, Princeton
Moderator OGI
11:15 - 11:30 Coffee Break
11:30 - 12:30 Roundtable Discussion #1 (2 presenters, 1 discussant)
Antecedent conditions and perception of injustice
Key Issues: Identification and assessment of the most significant preconditions for revolutionary
change in the contemporary world.
Presenter: Dr. John Booth, North Texas State
Presenter: Dr. Barry Rubin, Historian
Discussant: Dr. Pauline Baker, Carnegie Endowment
12:30 - 1:45 Lunch
1:45 - 3:00 Roundtable Discussion #2 (2 presenters, 1 discussant)
Politicization and Mobilization
Key Issues: Identification and assessment of the most significant strategies and mechanisms
available now to aspiring revolutionaries
Presenter: Dr. Robert Dix, Rice U.
Presenter: Dr. John Richardson, American U.
Discussant: Dr. Jack Goldstone, Northwestern
Moderator OGI
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3:00 - 3:15 Afternoon Break Coffee, tea, soft drinks
3:15 - 4:30 Roundtable Discussion #3 (2 presenters, 1 discussant)
Countervailing Forces and Conflict Outcomes
Key Issues: Identification and assessment of the most significant government responses to
revolutionary challenge, and other stabilizing forces
Presenter: Dr. Francis Fukuyama, RAND
Presenter: Dr. Eric Nordlinger, Brown/Harvard
Discussant: Dr. Larry Diamond, Stanford
Moderator:
Friday, 21 November 1986
9:00 - 9:10 Introductory Remarks: Applying Theory to Cases
9:10 - 10:30 Application to SOUTH AFRICA (2 presenters 1 discussant)
Presenter: Dr. Pauline Baker, Carnegie Endowment
Presenter: Mr. Robert Conway, Fellow at Harvard Center for International
Discussant: Dr. Larry Diamond, Stanford
Moderator OGI
10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break
10:45 - 12:00 Application to EGYPT (2 presenters, 1 discussant)
Presenter: Dr. Marvin Zonis, University of Chicago
Presenter: Dr. Barry Rubin, Historian
Discussant: Ms. Georgie Anne Geyer, Syndicated Columnist with Universal
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1:15 - 2:30 Application to NICARAGUA (1 presenter, 1 discussant)
Presenter: Dr. John Booth, North Texas State
Presenter: Dr. Robert Leiken, Carnegie Endowment
Discussant: Dr. Chalmers Johnson, Berkeley
Moderator: OGI
2:30 - 2:45 Coffee break
2:45 - 4:00 Application to SOUTH KOREA (2 presenters, 1 discussant)
Presenter: Dr. Vincent Brandt, The Fairbanks School of East Asian
Presenter: Dr.Norman Jacobs, U of Illinois
Discussant: Dr.Chalmers Johnson, Berkeley
Moderator: OGI
4:00 - 5:00 Final questions and comments; wrapup
-- Goldstone -- Gordon -- Sigmund -- Johnson -- Huntington?
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