LETTER TO JEANE J. KIRKPATRICK FROM WILLIAM J. CASEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001704310050-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2010
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: May 15, 1985
• Content Type: LETTER

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cntral Intdh`;cncc Agency
15 May 1985
The Honorable Jeane J. Kirkpatrick
American Enterprise Institute
1150 Seventeenth Street, N. W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
Dear Jeane,
I thought this would interest you.
Yours,
William J. Casey
Director of Central Intelligence
Attachment:
DCI Remarks at Metropolitan
Club of New York City, 1 May 85
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l'4 l
I MAY 85
METROPOLITAN CLUB OF NEW YORK CITY
1 MAY 1985
TODAY, I WOULD LIKE TO TELL YOU ABOUT THE SUBVERSIVE WAR
WHICH THE SOVIET UNION AND ITS PARTNERS HAVE BEEN WAGING AGAINST
THE UNITED STATES AND ITS INTERESTS AROUND THE WORLD FOR A
QUARTER OF A CENTURY OR MORE. THIS CAMPAIGN OF AGGRESSIVE
SUBVERSION HAS NIBBLED AWAY AT FRIENDLY GOVERNMENTS AND OUR
VITAL INTERESTS UNTIL TODAY OUR NATIONAL SECURITY IS IMPAIRED
IN OUR IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WELL AS IN EUROPE, ASIA,
AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA.
THIS IS NOT AN UNDECLARED WAR. IN 1961,'KHRUSHCHEV, THEN
LEADER OF THE SOVIET UNION, TOLD US THAT
COMMUNISM WOULD WIN NOT THROUGH NUCLEAR WAR WHICH COULD DESTROY THE WORLD
OR CONVENTIONAL VAR WHICH COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO NUCLEAR WAR. BUT THROUGH
"WARS OF NATIONAL LIBERATION" IN AFRICA. ASIA, AND LATIN AMERICA. WE
WERE RELUCTANT TO BELIEVE HIM THEN, JUST AS IN THE 19305 WE WERE
RELUCTANT TO TAKE HITLER SERIOUSLY WHEN HE SPELLED OUT IN "MEIN KAMPF"
HOW HE WOULD TAKE OVER EUROPE.
OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS, SOVIET POWER HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED:
IN VIETNAM. ALONG CHINA'S SOUTHERN BORDER AND ASTFIDE THE
SEA LANES WHICH BRING PERSIAN GULF OIL TC JAPAN.
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? IN AFGHANISTAN, SOD MILES CLOSER TO THE WARM-WATER PORTS
OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND TO THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ. THROUGH
WHICH C011ES THE OIL ESSENTIAL TO WESTERN EUROPE.
? IN THE HORN OF AFRICA. DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN APPROACHES
TO THE RED SEA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA.
? IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. THE SOURCE OF MINERALS WHICH WE AND
THE OTHER INDUSTRIAL NATIONS MUST HAVE.
? AND IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, ON THE VERY
DOORSTEP OF THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS NOT A BLOODLESS WAR. MARXIST-LENINIST POLICIES
AND TACTICS HAVE UNLEASHED THE FOUR HORSES OF THE APOLCALYPSE--
FAMINE, PESTILENCE, WAR AND DEATH. THROUGHOUT THE THIRD WORLD
WE SEE FAMINE IN AFRICA, PESTILENCE THROUGH CHEMICAL AND
BIOLOGICAL AGENTS IN AFGHANISTAN AND INDO-CHINA, WAR ON THREE
CONTINENTS, AND DEATH EVERYWHERE, EVEN AS I SPEAK, SOME
300,000 SOVIET, VIETNAMESE, AND CUBAN TROOPS ARE CARRYING OUT
SAVAGE MILITARY OPERATIONS DIRECTED AT WIPING OUT NATIONAL
RESISTANCE IN AFGHAN-IST.AN, KAMPUCHEA, ANGOLA, ETHIOPIA, AND
SEVERAL OTHER COUNTRIES.
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IN THE OCCUPIED COUNTRIES--AFGHANISTAN, CAMBODIA, ETHIOPIA,
ANGOLA, NICARAGUA--IN WHICH MARXIST REGIMES HAVE BEEN EITHER
IMPOSED OR MAINTAINED BY EXTERNAL FORCES, THERE HAS OCCURRED
A HOLOCAUST COMPARABLE TO THAT WHICH NAZI GERMANY INFLICTED IN
EUROPE SOME 40 YEARS AGO. SOME FOUR MILLION AFGHANS, MORE
THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE POPULATION, HAVE HAD TO FLEE THEIR
COUNTRY. THE HELSINKI WATCH TELLS US THAT THEY HAVE FLED
BECAUSE "THE CRIMES OF INDISCRIMINATE WARFARE ARE COMBINED WITH
THE WORST EXCESSES OF UNBRIDLED STATE-SANCTIONED VIOLENCE
AGAINST CIVILIANS." IT CITES EVIDENCE OF "CIVILIANS BURNED
ALIVE, DYNAMITED, BEHEADED; CRUSHED BY SOVIET TANKS; GRENADES
THROWN INTO ROOMS WHERE WOMEN AND CHILDREN HAVE BEEN TOLD TO
WAIT."
IN CAMBODIA, 2 TO 3 MILLION PEOPLE, SOMETHING LIKE
ONE-QUARTER OF THE PRE-WAR POPULATION, HAVE BEEN KILLED IN THE
MOST VIOLENT AND BRUTAL MANNER BY BOTH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
MARXIST FORCES.
IN ETHIOPIA, A MARXIST MILITARY GOVERNMENT, SUPPORTED
WITH EXTENSIVE MILITARY SUPPORT FROM MOSCOW AND THOUSANDS OF
CUBAN TROOPS, BY COLLECTIVIZING AGRICULTURE AND KEEPING FOOD
PRICES LOW IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN URBAN SUPPORT, HAS EXACERBATED
It
A FAMINE WHICH THREATENS THE LIVES OF MILLIONS OF ITS CITIZENS.
IT HAS EXPLOITED THE FAMINE BY USING FOOD AS A WEAPON TO FORCIBLY
RELOCATE PEOPLE FIGHTING AN OPPRESSIVE GOVERNMENT IN THE NORTH
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO PREPARATION
TO RECEIVE THEM. IN URBAN AREAS, FOOD RATIONS ARE DISTRIBUTED
THROUGH PARTY CELLS. 7
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IN NICARAGUA, THE COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT KILLED OUTRIGHT A
MINIMUM OF 1,000 FORMER SOMOZA NATIONAL GUARDSMEN DURING THE
SUMMER OF 1979, IN 1982, IT FORCIBLY RELOCATED SOME 15,000
MISKITO INDIANS TO DETENTION CAMPS, FORCED MANY MORE TO FLEE
TO REFUGEE CAMPS IN HONDURAS, AND BURNED SOME 40 INDIAN VILLAGES.
LAST MONTH, THE SANDINISTAS FORCIBLY MOVED 60,000 CAMPESINOS
FROM AREAS CLOSE TO THE HONDURAN REGIONS, BURNING THEIR HOUSES
AND KILLING THEIR CATTLE.
WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF ALL THIS CARNAGE,.THIS CREEPING
IMPERIALISM? IN MY VIEW, THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY
TARGETS--THE OIL FIELDS OF THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH ARE THE
LIFE LINE OF THE WESTERN ALLIANCE AND THE ISTHMUS BETWEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA.. AFGHANISTAN, SOUTH YEMEN, ETHIOPIA,
AS WELL AS CAM RANH BAY I N VIETNAM, AND MOZAMBIQUE AND
ANGOLA IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, BRING SOVIET POWER MUCH CLOSER
TO THE SOURCES OF OIL AND MINERALS ON WHICH THE INDUSTRIAL
NATIONS DEPEND AND PUTS SOVIET NAVAL AND AIR POWER ASTRIDE
THE SEA LANES WHICH CARRY THOSE RESOURCES TO AMERICA, EUROPE
AND JAPAN.
CAPABILITIES TO THREATEN THE PANAMA CANAL IN THE SHORT
ic
TERM AND MEXICO IN A SOMEWHAT LONGER TERM ARE BEING DEVELOPED
IN NICARAGUA WHERE THE SANDINISTA REVOLUTION IS THE FIRST
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SUCCESSFUL CASTROITE SEIZURE OF POWER ON THE AMERICAN MAINLAND.
THEY HAVE WORKED QUIETLY AND STEADILY TOWARD THEIR OBJECTIVES
OF BUILDING THE POWER OF THE STATE SECURITY APPARATUS, BUILDING
THE STRONGEST ARMED FORCES IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND BECOMING
A CENTER FOR EXPORTING SUBVERSION TO NICARAGUA'S NEIGHBORS.
THE AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY OVER RECENT'MONTHS
UNANIMOUSLY CONCURRED IN FOUR NATIONAL ESTIMATES ON THE MILITARY
BUILDUP, THE CONSOLIDATION AND THE OBJECTIVES OF THE SOVIETS
AND THE CUBANS AND THE SANDINITAS IN NICARAGUA. IF I WERE
TO BOIL THE KEY JUDGMENTS OF THOSE ESTIMATES DOWN TO A SINGLE
SENTENCE IT WOULD BE THIS. THE SOVIET UNION AND CUBA HAVE
ESTABLISHED AND ARE CONSOLIDATING A BEACHHEAD ON THE AMERICAN
CONTINENT, ARE PUTTING HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH
OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT INTO IT, AND HAVE BEGUN TO USE IT AS A
LAUNCHING PAD TO CARRY THEIR STYLE OF AGGRESSIVE SUBVERSION
INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ELSEWHERE IN LATIN AMERICA-
LET ME REVIEW QUICKLY WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED IN NICARAGUA.
THE SANDINISTAS HAVE DEVELOPED THE BEST EQUIPPED
MILITARY IN THE REGION. THEY HAVE AN ACTIVE STRENGTH OF
SOME 65,000 AND A FULLY MOBILIZED STRENGTH INCLUDING
MILITIA AND RESERVES Of NEARLY 120,000. THESE FORCES ARE
EQUIPPED WITH SOVIET TANKS, ARMORED VEHICLES, STATE OF THE ART
HELICOPTERS, PATROL BOATS AND AN INCREASINGLY COMPREHENSIVE
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AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM. THIS GIVES THE SANDINISTAS A MILITARY
CAPABILITY FAR BEYOND THAT OF ANY OTHER CENTRAL AMERICAN
NATION AND INDEED ALL CENTRAL AMERICAN STATIONS PUT TOGETHER-
-- IN ADDITION TO THE CONSIDERABLE MILITARY HARDWARE,
THERE ARE NOW AN ESTIMATED 6,000-7,500 CUBAN ADVISORS AND
SEVERAL HUNDRED OTHER COMMUNISTS AND RADICAL PERSONNEL IN
NICARAGUA ASSISTING THE REGIME IN ITS MILITARY BUILDUP AND
ITS CONSOLIDATION OF POWER.
-- THE COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT UNDER CUBAN DIRECTION
AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ESSENTIAL IN HELPING THE REGIME ESTABLISH
CONTROL OVER THE MEDIA, CREATE PROPAGANDA MECHANISMS AND
NEUTRALIZE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THOSE WHO OPPOSE THE SANDINISTA
TOTALITARIANISM.
TODAY, WE SEE NICARAGUA BECOMING TO CENTRAL AND
LATIN AMERICA WHAT BEIRUT WAS TO THE MIDDLE EAST FOR ALMOST
15 YEARS SINCE 1970 WHEN LEBANON BECAME THE FOCAL POINT FOR
INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL TERRORISTS- MANAGUA'S SUPPORT
FOR TRAINING OF CENTRAL AMERICAN SUBVERSIVES IS WELL DOCUMENTED-'
THEY SUPPORT SALVADORAN COMMUNISTS, GUATEMALAN COMMUNISTS,
RADICAL LEFTISTS IN COSTA RICA, AND-ARE ATTEMPTING TO INCREASE
THE NUMBER OF RADICALcLEFTIST TERRORISTS IN HONDURAS. MORE
RECENT EVIDENCE INDICATES NICARAGUAN SUPPORT FOR SOME SOUTH
AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS AND GROWING CONTACTS WITH OTHER
INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST GROUPS.
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YET, JUST LAST WEEK THE AMERICAN CONGRESS REFUSED TO APPROVE
$14 MILLION FOR PEOPLE RESISTING COMMUNIST DOMINATION OF
NICARAGUA, ON THE VERY DAY THAT A SOVIET SHIP UNLOADED MORE
THAN $14 MILLION WORTH OF HELICOPTERS, EAST GERMAN TRUCKS,
AND OTHER MILITARY CARGO AT CORINTO, THE PRINCIPAL PORT IN NICARAGUA.
ON THE VERY NEXT DAY, ORTEGA, THE NICARAGUAN COMMUNIST DICTATOR,
TRAVELED TO MOSCOW TO ASK THE SOVIET UNION TO MAKE $200 MILLION
AVAILABLE TO HIM TO CONSOLIDATE A LENINIST COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP
ACROSS A STRETCH OF LAND WHICH SEPARATES SOUTH AMERICA FROM
NORTH AMERICA.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IN OUR IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORHOOD SHOULD NOT
BE VIEWED IN ISOLATION BUT AS PART OF A WORLDWIDE PROCESS WHICH
HAS ALREADY WORKED IN EUROPE, AFRICA, ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA,
STAT
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HE WOULD HAVE TO CONTROL THE EDUCATION OF THE YOUTH AND TO
UPROOT AND UNDERMINE AND ULTIMATELY CHANGE THE TRADITIONAL
ELEMENTS OF SOCIETY, THIS MEANT UNDERMINING THE INFLUENCE OF
RELIGION AND TAKING THE YOUNG AWAY FROM THEIR PARENTS FOR
EDUCATION BY THE STATE. HE WAS TAUGHT THAT TO CONTROL THE
PEOPLE HE WOULD HAVE TO ESTABLISH BLOCK COMMITTEES AS A
POWERFUL SECRET POLICE. FINALLY, ABD'AL FATAH SPOKE IN
IMPASSIONED TERMS OF A NEED TO EXPORT REVOLUTION TO CARRY
OUT HIS MISSION AS A DEDICATED MARXIST-LENINIST AND TO ENSURE
THAT ATTENTION WAS FOCUSED ON NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES THUS
DIVERTING ATTENTION FROM HIS OWN COUNTRY AND ALLOWING IT TO
CONSOLIDATE ITS REVOLUTION.
BOB AMES SAID THAT AS HE LOOKED BACK, ABD'AL FATAH--WITH
SOVIET BLOC HELP--HAD DONE AS HE SAID HE WOULD. HE CAPTURED
AND SUBVERTED A LEGITIMATE WAR OF LIBERATION. HE KILLED OR
DROVE INTO EXILE THOSE MEMBERS OF THE MOVEMENT WHO BELIEVED IN
DEMOCRACY AND THEN WENT ABOUT THE WORK OF CONSOLIDATING A
COMMUNIST REGIME AND BEGAN ARMED SUBVERSION AGAINST OMAN AND
NORTH YEMEN-
IN ETHIOPIA, ANGOLA, AFGHANISTAN, NICARAGUA, AND GRENADA,
DEDICATED MARX] ST-LEN1NI^6T REVOLUTIONARIES FOLLOWED THIS SOVIET
8 -
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OUR ANALYSTS HAVE STUDIED THIS BLUEPRINT FOR TAKING OVER
A GOVERNMENT AND CONSOLIDATING A TOTALITARIAN REGIME' AS IT HAS
BEEN EXEMPLIFIED IN SEVEN TOTALITARIAN REGIMES; SIX MARXIST-LENINIST
IN CUBA, SOUTH YEMEN, ETHIOPIA, ANGOLA, GRENADA, NICARAGUA,
AND THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT OF IRAN. THEY HAVE
IDENTIFIED 46 INDICATORS OF THE CONSOLIDATION OF POWER BY A
MARXIST-LENINIST REGIME- THESE INDICATORS MEASURE THE MOVEMENT
TOWARD ONE-PARTY GOVERNMENT, CONTROL OF THE MILITARY, OF THE
SECURITY SERVICES, OF THE MEDIA, OF EDUCATION, OF THE ECONOMY,
THE FORMING OR TAKEOVER OF LABOR OR OTHER MASS ORGANIZATIONS,
EXERTING SOCIAL AND POPULATION CONTROL, CURBING RELIGIOUS
INFLUENCE AND ALIGNMENT WITH THE SOVIET BLOC.
OF THE 46 INDICATORS, NICARAGUA IN FIVE AND ONE-HALF YEARS
HAS ACCOMPLISHED 33. THEY HAVE ESTABLISHED CONTROL OF THE
MEDIA, TAKEN OVER RADIO AND TV, CENSORED THE BROADCASTS OF
SUNDAY SERMONS OF THE ARCHBISHOP OF MANAGUA, AND SUBJECTED THE
ONLY FREE NEWSPAPER, LA PRENSA, TO A BRUTAL DAILY CENSORSHIP.
THEY HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM. NICARGUAN
TEXTBOOKS NOW TEACH MARXISM- THEY ATTACK THE TENETS OF WESTERN
DEMOCRACY- THEY ATTACK TRADITIONAL RELIGIOUS TEACHINGS AND
ENCOURAGE CHILDREN TO MA-INT-AIN REVOLUTIONARY VIGILANCE BY
WATCHING FOR SIGNS OF IDEOLOGICAL IMPURITIES IN THEIR NEIGHBORS,
FRIENDS AND RELATIVES. THE SANDINISTAS HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF
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THE MILITARY. THEY HAVE TAKEN CONTROL OF THE INTERNAL SECRET
POLICE AND HAVE ESTABLISHED A DIRECTORATE OF STATE SECURITY-
THAT DIRECTORATE, ACCORDING TO OUR REPORTS, HAS 400 CUBANS, 70
SOVIETS, 40-50 EAST GERMAN AND 20-25 BULGARIAN ADVISORS.
THERE ARE SOVIET ADVISORS AT EVERY. LEVEL OF THE SECRET POLICE.
IN FACT, IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT IT IS CONTROLLED BY. THE SOVIET
UNION AND ITS SURROGATES- BLOCK COMMITTEES HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED
TO WATCH AND CONTROL THE PEOPLE- THE CHURCH HAS BEEN PERSECUTED-
WITNESS THE CAMPAIGN MOUNTED BY THE DIRECTORATE OF STATE SECURITY
TO HARASS AND EMBARRASS POPE JOHN PAUL II DURING HIS L983
VISIT TO NICARAGUA. THEY HAVE USED POLITICAL MOBS (SIMILAR TO
THE RED GUARDS OF SOVIET AND CHINESE REVOLUTIONARY HISTORY) TO
ATTACK DEMOCRATIC POLITICANS, UNION MEMBERS AND RELIGIOUS
LEADERS- AND FINALLY, JUST AS ABD'AL FATAH TOLD BOB AMES WHAT
HE MUST DO, AND FOLLOWING HITLER AND KHRUSHCHEV, THE SANDINISTAS
HAVE TOLD THE WORLD, THAT THEY WOULD SPREAD THE EXAMPLE OF
NICARAGUA BEYOND EL SALVADOR TO HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, AND THE
ENTIRE REGION-
AN INTEGRAL PART OF THIS BLUEPRINT FOR SUBVERSIVE AGGRESSION
IS DECEPTION AND DISINFORMATION TO MANIPULATE AND INFLUENCE
PUBLIC OPINION AND POLICIES IN WESTERN COUNTRIES. THIS TAKES
MANY SHAPES AND FORMS-
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A WORLDWIDE PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN MOUNTED AND CARRIED
OUT ON BEHALF OF THE SANDINISTA REGIME AND SALVADORAN GUERRILLAS
WHICH WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE WITHOUT THE CAPABILITIES,
THE CONTACTS, AND THE COMMUNICATION CHANNELS PROVIDED BY THE
SOVIET BLOC AND CUBA. THE SANDINISTAS THEMSELVES HAVE SHOWN
REMARKABLE INGENUITY AND SKILL IN PROJECTING DISINFORMATION INTO
THE UNITED STATES ITSELF. PERHAPS THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THIS IS
THE SYSTEMATIC CAMPAIGN TO DECEIVE WELL-INTENTIONED MEMBERS OF
THE WESTERN MEDIA AND OF WESTERN RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS.
THERE ARE MANY EXAMPLES OF NICARAGUAN DECEPTION. THE
SANDINISTA PRESS, RADIO AND GOVERNMENT MINISTRY HAVE PUT OUT
CLAIMS THAT THE US USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN GRENADA, THAT THE
US WAS SUPPLYING NICARAGUAN FREEDOM FIGHTERS WITH DRUGS, AND
THAT THE US MIGHT GIVE THE OPPOSITION BACTERIOLOGICAL WEAPONS=
THE DEBATE IN THE CONGRESS LAST WEEK DISCLOSED FEW WHO
THINK THAT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN CENTRAL AMERICA IS A DESIRABLE
STATE OF AFFAIRS OR THAT IT IS COMPATIBLE WITH AVOIDING A
POSSIBLY PERMANENT IMPAIRMENT OF OUR NATIONAL SECURITY AND A
SERIOUS DETERIORATION IN THE AMERICAN GEOPOLITICAL POSITION
IN THE WORLD.
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THERE ARE SOME WHO WILL BE CONTENT WITH AN AGREEMENT THAT
THE NICARAGUANS WILL NOW FOREGO FURTHER AGGRESSION. OUR
EXPERIENCE IN KOREA AND INDOCHINA PROVIDES SOME LESSONS ON THE
VALUE OF AGREEMENTS WITH COMMUNIST GOVERNMENTS- KOREA STARTED
TO VIOLATE THE KOREAN ARMISTICE WITHIN DAYS OF THE TRUCE SIGNING,
UNDER THE 1973 PARIS ACCORDS, NORTH VIETNAM AGREED TO CEASE
FIRING IN SOUTH VIETNAM, WITHDRAW ITS FORCES FROM CAMBODIA
AND LAOS, AND REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ADDITIONAL TROOPS AND WAR
MATERIEL INTO SOUTH VIETNAM EXCEPT ON A ONE-FOR-ONE REPLACEMENT
BASIS. NORTH VIETNAM NEVER OBSERVED THE CEASE-FIRE AND TROOP
WITHDRAWAL REQUIREMENTS, AND WITHIN LITTLE MORE THAN TWO MONTHS
AFTER IT HAD SIGNED THE PEACE AGREEMENTS IT HAD ALREADY INFILTRATED
SOME 30,000 ADDITIONAL TROOPS AND OVER 30,000 TONS OF MILITARY
EQUIPMENT INTO SOUTH VIETNAM.
WE BELIEVE THE SANDINISTAS' MAIN OBJECTIVES IN REGIONAL
NEGOTIATIONS ARE: TO BUY TIME TO FUTHER CONSOLIDATE THE REGIME.
HISTORY AND THE RECORD AND PURPOSES OF MARXIST-LENINIST
REGIMES IN GENERAL AND THE SANDINISTAS IN PARTICULAR LEAD US
TO BELIEVE THAT UNLESS NICARAGUA HAS IMPLEMENTED A GENUINE
DEMOCRACY AS REQUIRED BY-THE OAS SUCH ASSURANCES COULD NOT BE
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ADEQUATELY VERIFIED AND WOULD NOT BE COMPLIED WITH.
CUBAN OFFICIALS HAVE URGED THE SALVADORAN COMMUNIST GUERRILLAS
TO SLOW DOWN THEIR ATTACKS AGAINST THE DUARTE GOVERNMENT IN
ORDER TO FORTIFY AND CONSOLIDATE THE NICARAGUAN REVOLUTION.
WE BELIEVE THAT CUBA HAS ASSURED THE SALVADORAN COMMUNISTS THAT
IT MIGHT TAKE AS LONG AS 5 TO 10 YEARS, BUT AS LONG AS THE
SANDINISTA REGIME IN NICARAGUA REMAINS, THAT COUNTRY WILL
SERVE AS A BASE FOR COMMUNIST EXPANSION IN THE AREA AND THE
SALVADORAN INSURGENCY WILL BE RENEWED ONCE THE SANDINISTAS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE ARMED RESISTANCE.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR AMERICAS FUTURE? SHOULD
CENTRAL AMERICA FALL UNDER COMMUNIST CONTROL, IT COULD MEAN A
TIDAL WAVE OF REFUGEES INTO THE US-
EVERY COUNTRY THAT HAS FALLEN UNDER COMMUNIST CONTROL SINCE
WORLD WAR II HAS SENT REFUGEES STREAMING OVER THE BORDERS--FIRST
EASTERN EUROPE, THEN CUBA, AND MORE RECENTLY VIETNAM AND
AFGHANISTAN--AND THE POTENTIAL INFLUX FROM CENTRAL AMERICA IS
EVEN HIGHER THAN FROM ANY OF THESE- SINCE 1980, SOME 200,000
SALVADORANS FLEEING THE COMMUNIST-INITIATED VIOLENCE IN THEIR OWN
COUNTRY HAVE ENTERED THE US ILLEGALLY- ILLEGAL MOVEMENT FROM
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MEXICO HAS INCREASED, WITH SOME 1,000,000 MEXICANS ILLEGALLY
ENTERING THIS COUNTRY IN 1983 ALONE. IN 1984 THE BI-PARTISAN
COMMISSION ON CENTRAL AMERICA WARNED THAT A COMMMUNIST CENTRAL
AMERICA WOULD LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY THE DESTABILIZATION OF
MEXICO AND THAT THIS COULD RESULT IN MANY MILLIONS OF ADDITIONAL
MEXICANS FLEEING INTO THE US.
TODAY, THE CUBAN AND NICARAGUAN MILITARY FORCES ARE
TOGETHER FOUR TIMES THE SIZE OF THOSE OF MEXICO AND ARE
EQUIPPED WITH VASTLY SUPERIOR WEAPONS. TODAY, WITH ARMED
FORCES LARGER AND BETTER EQUIPPED THAN THE REST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA PUT TOGETHER, NICARAGUA COULD WALK THROUGH COSTA RICA,
WHICH HAS NO ARMY, TO PANAMA, AND CUBA CAN THREATEN OUR VITAL
SEA LANES IN THE CARIBBEAN-
THE INSURGENCY IS A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO SANDINISTA
CONSOLIDATION IN THAT IT ENCOURAGES THE EROSION OF ACTIVE
SUPPORT FOR THE SANDINISTAS BY CREATING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
THE FUTURE OF THE REGIME; BY CHALLENGING ITS CLAIMS OF POLITICAL
LEGITIMACY; AND BY GIVING HOPE TO THE LEADERS OF THE POLITICAL
OPPOSITION-
THE LARGEST ANTI-SANDINISTA INSURGENT GROUP, THE FDN, IS
STILL PROVIDING STRONG LILITARY RESISTANCE DESPITE CUTOFF OF
US AID ALMOST A YEAR AGO- POPULAR SYMPATHY FOR THE INSURGENTS
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING THE COUNTRYSIDE, AND THE FDN CONTINUES
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THAT OPPOSITION CAN INCREASE THE PRESSURE UNTIL
THE SANDINISTA SUPPORT HAS ERODED SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAVE THEM
NO OPTION OTHER THAN MODIFICATION OF THEIR REJECTION OF INTERNAL
RECONCILIATION- THE OBJECTIVE IS TO ALLOW FOR THE SAME PROCESS
OF DEMOCRATIZATION THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE REST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA TO OCCUR IN NICARAGUA-
1C
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