LETTER TO GEORGE P. SHULTZ FROM WILLIAM J. CASEY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R001404090005-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2008
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 29, 1983
• Content Type: LETTER

SECRET Approved For Release 2008/05/27: CIA-RDP88B00443R001404090005-2
The Director of Central Intelligence
29 October 1983
Dear George,
Followirg up on our telephone conversation
yesterday here is a list of possible Cuban
reactions which came out of a brainstorming
session here yesterday.
I also enclose a memorandum outlining
another response to the Beirut bombing.
Yours,
William J. Casey
The Honorable George P. Shultz
Secretary of State
Washington, D. C. 20520
Enclosures:
As stated
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Possible Reactions (In rough order of likelihood)
USSR/Cubans orchestrate worldwide propaganda campaign, including
demonstrations before US Embassies, atrocity stories, books, movies, etc.
Cuba requests additional military and economic assistance from USSR.
Nicaraguans request additional military/economic assistance from USSR/Cuba.
Cubans orchestrate campaign of sabotage/attacks against US bases or embassies
overseas, in the continental United States, and Puerto Rico.
Cuba/USSR orchestrate violence aimed at tourists in Eastern Caribbean
producing major drop in tourist revenue for OECS states, Barbados, Jamaica.
Low performance L-39 aircraft or MIG-15's are introduced into Nicaragua.
High performance jet aircraft are transshipped to Nicaragua from Cuba via a
friendly third-country port (Libya?) on a non-USSR/Cuban vessel.
Cuba infiltrates one-time saboteurs into Grenada to create impression of
domestic resistance to "occupation force."
Cuba jams US commercial broadcasting.
Cuba dispatches explosives/sapper squads to Central America to target US
equipment, installations, and facilities, or important Salvadoran/Honduran
military equipment or facilities.
Kidnappings or assassinations of US officials or East Caribbean leaders.
USSR deploys a naval force to Caribbean.
USSR auguments the Soviet brigade in Cuba.
Cuba seeks UN Security Council seat at next go-round.
Cuba instructs far left paramilitary organization in Dominican Republic to
stir up trouble.
Cuba infiltrates guerrilla forces into Grenada.
Cuba dispatches OSA missile patrol boat or FOXTROT submarine to strike US
naval vessel near Grenada.
Cuba orchestrates sabotage/protests among Jamaican contract workers at
Guantanamo.
Soviets stir the pot in Lebanon, attempting to draw US forces into a
"Vietnam quagmire."
SECREI1
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President Reagan and/or other officials are targetted for assassination
attempt during Far East trip.
Cuban attack on Guantanamo Naval Base.
Soviet pressure on Berlin.
Terrorist attack (missile?) on US naval forces off Lebanon.
Vietnamese attack on Spratley Islands.
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SECRE
Approved For Release 2008/05/27: CIA-RDP88B00443R001404090005-2