QADHAFI SCOURGE OF THE THIRD WORLD

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CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7
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RIFPUB
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K
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15
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December 22, 2016
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January 10, 2011
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1
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REPORT
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Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 QADHAFI SCOURGE OF THE THIRD WORLD Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 It should come as a surprise to no one that the leading fomenter of trouble in Africa--and in many other parts of the world--is none other than Colonel Muammar Qadhafi, dictator of Libya. Since the mid-1970s Qadhafi has stepped onto the world stage as an unwelcome actor who regularly dabbles in the internal affairs of other countries. That is hardly news to any of you. But it may come as news to learn that during the past few years Qadhafi's drive for power has taken on a new dimension as his military forces add new weapons and as his personal security service takes on increasingly daring missions of assassination and subversion. Today, Qadhafi's operations threaten perhaps two dozen countries on five continents. His agents roam the world in search of mischief, and his armies pose an ever-growing threat to Libya's neighbors. This morning I hope to tell you a little bit about Mr. Qadhafi's recent activities to give you a feel for his growing influence, and the nature of Qadhafi's quest for power. (PAUSE) As revolutions go,.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 As revolutions go, that which brought Qadhafi to power back in 1969 was not especially noteworthy. All that can be said is that it was brief, nearly bloodless, nationalist in character, and succeeded in bringing down a drowsy monarchy that threatened no one. But in the monarchy's place, Qadhafi created a totalitarian state that has the potential to unleash a savage war in Africa and the Middle East. What is more, Qadhafi has at his command the financial resources needed to build a highly militarized state and to engage in sabotage and subversion as far afield as Nicaragua and the Philippines. When Qadhafi took power in 1969 he did so as a zealot with messianic pretensions. Qadhafi sees himself as a latter-day prophet who has received a special vision of religious, social, and political truth to bring to the people of Libya. Qadhafi genuinely believes that his views will serve as a basis for eventual revolution throughout the Third World. While broadcasting his views of revolution, puritanism, unity, and militancy, Qadhafi carefully masks his personal ambitions for Libyan territorial expansion at the expense of his neighbors, and for increased personal power. I want to point out that Qadhafi's goals--both his publicly stated aims and his hidden agenda--have not changed since he came to power more than fifteen years ago. But his early and somewhat naive optimism is today clearly gone. Qadhafi now recognizes that his version of pan-Arabism .... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 version of pan-Arabism has little appeal to other Arabs. Moreover, his brand of socialism and radicalism is repugnant to most Muslims outside Libya. Qadhafi surely knows this, as he has suffered a number of setbacks politically since his aims became generally known in the early 1970s. Nonetheless, Qadhafi remains absolutely determined to change the course of history in the Middle East and elsewhere. He has never had any moral qualms about using terror and violence to achieve his ends, but with the failure of his early attempt to persuade others to follow his example, he has turned increasingly to military might and subversion. This trend has become particularly pronounced in the last few years. Since 1981 Qadhafi has turned sharply to confrontational tactics with his neighbors that make good use of his rapidly-expanding military forces. For example, Libya's army and air force currently are operating in the northern portion of neighboring Chad in an effort to continue and deepen the turmoil that has cursed that small country for many years. Other military forces are deployed opposite the border with Egypt--a major enemy from Qadhafi's point of view. Yet another major portion of Qadhafi's forces threatens Tunisia. Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 It is no secret how Qadhafi has been able to build up his military power. Qadhafi is the best cash-paying customer Moscow has for its weaponry. Now, the Soviets are not fools. They are puzzled by Qadhafi's erratic behavior--as are the rest of us. And the Soviets genuinely fear that Qadhafi's wild behavior may lead him to overstep his bounds, thus plunging the Middle East into serious conflicts that could threaten Soviet interests. But still they sell him weapons. Lots of weapons. Consider for example, the fact that Qadhafi has purchased some $20 billion worth of weapons since 1974 from the Soviets and their client states in Eastern Europe. This includes more than 2,500 tanks, 550 Jet fighters, and hundreds of self-propelled artillery pieces and surface-to-air missiles. Now, weapons like these look fine on the parade ground. But their purpose is to intimidate moderate regimes in the Third World and to inflict death and destruction on the battlefield--and they do. Another indicator of Qadhafi's aggressive intentions is his expansion of the manpower of the armed forces. Before Qadhafi seized power, Libya's army consisted of barely 8,500 men with six tanks and 90 scout cars..... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 tanks and 90 scout cars. Today, Qadhafi has more than 90,000 troops. Indeed, this figure is up by a third from estimated troop strength of 60,000 just five years ago. And still the build-up goes Egypt must now consider that a major threat to its security lies west of El Alamein. And Cairo also cannot ignore the possibility that the Libyans will force their way in through the "back door" to the South--through the Sudan. Qadhafi also possesses enough naval and air power to disrupt shipping in the Suez and Red Sea (as indeed he did in the Spring of 1984) and to disrupt resupply to Egypt from European ports across the Mediterranean. The Libyan air attack on a Sudanese radio station broadcasting anti-Qadhafi propaganda in March, 1984 demonstrates the lengths Qadhafi will go to intimidate moderate regimes as well as the types of terrorist missions he foresees for his armed forces. Algeria finds itself in the position of directing increasing amounts of attention to its southeastern border with Libya. But even more important from Algiers' perspective is Qadhafi's political threat to Tunisia. If Qadhafi is able to create or capitalize upon serious internal upheaval in Tunisia, Algeria could face a greatly increased Libyan threat along its entire eastern border. But unhappiest of all.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 But unhappiest of all are the weak states lying to the south of Libya. Chad is the obvious victim of Libyan aggression. But the Sudan and even Niger [NEE-ZHER] feel the threat of Libyan arms on their borders. As many of you know, Chad has been effectively partitioned since 1983 into a Libyan-dominated northern "state", and the recognized government of President Habre [HAH-BRAY] in the south. What is not generally known is that Qadhafi nipped off a slice of Chadian territory known as the Aozou [OW-ZOH] Strip as his price for temporarily curtailing subversion against the Government -- subversion that, I might add, he instigated. Now, we have seen this kind of bullying and threatening before. Many of you who are as old as I am vividly remember a similar megalomaniac by the name of Adolf Hitler who followed a nearly identical path. Motivated by visions of grandeur and conquest, Hitler built up a tremendous military machine while completing his totalitarian hold on Germany. Through generous doses of duplicity and terror, he used his power to strip Czechoslovakia of the Sudetenland [SOO-DATE-N-LAHND], to bully small neighbors on his borders, and to swallow tiny Austria whole. From my perspective, the parallels between Hitler's behavior in Europe and Qadhafi's behavior in Africa are too close to be a matter of mere coincidence or idle curiosity. But the story does not.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 But the story does not end here. There is an aspect of Qadhafi's international behavior that even Hitler did not emulate. And that is Qadhafi's use of "hit teams", subversion, and terrorism on a scale unprecedented in this century. Qadhafi's program of terror, fear, and subversion has reached countries hundreds or even thousands of miles from Libya's shores. These include, to name but a few, Italy, Greece, West Germany, France, Great Britain, Ireland, Spain, Ghana, Mauritania, Zaire, Uganda, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, Brazil, the island republics of the West Indies, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and...yes, the United States. Let me give you just a few of the more spectacular Libyan plots that have come to light in the last two years or so. *In June 1983, the Libyan envoy to Jordan defected and revealed Qadhafi's plan to use missiles to destroy the aircraft carrying King Hussein. *One of Qadhafi's most publicized efforts was an attempt to kill Chadian President Habre with a briefcase bomb in September 1984. *As indicated during .... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 *As indicated during the shootout last year in London, Libya abused diplomatic privilege by storing large quantities of arms and explosives at its diplomatic establishments. *The FBI last spring disrupted Libyan plans to conduct attacks on Libyan dissidents living in the U.S. *During the past two years, Libyan terrorists have killed or wounded a number of dissidents in Europe. Tripoli also was responsible for a series of bombings in the UK which injured 25 people in London and Manchester in spring 1984. *In March 1984, Tripoli used one of its Soviet-supplied TU-22 bombers to attack a dissident radio station outside of Khartoum, Sudan. This was followed in July 1984 by Libya's mining of the Red Sea. *Last May Egyptian officials intercepted a truck loaded with explosives that reportedly were to be used in a Libyan-backed plot to blow up the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. In the past, Qadhafi's.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 In the past, Qadhafi's fear of U.S. retaliation has made him reluctant to target U.S. personnel directly in terrorist operations. This reluctance may be diminishing, however. *Qadhafi has publicly warned that he would expand terrorism to the U.S. in retaliation for what he claimed was the U.S. inspired attempt to attack his headquarters in May 1984. *Moreover, Qadhafi and his principal deputy, Jallud, [JAH-LOOD] have made five major speeches this year alone extolling the use of suicide terrorists in operations against U.S. personnel in Lebanon. Now, I could go on and on with specific examples to document Qadhafi's numerous outrages against other nations and against international law in general. But I think I have cited enough examples to make the case. The point is that Qadhafi has repeatedly--let me emphasize that word--repeatedly demonstrated that he is unconstrained by accepted standards of international conduct. He has repeatedly employed tactics of assassination and violence not only against Libyan exiles and .... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Libyan exiles and opponents, but against foreign leaders such as President Mubarak [MOO-BAHR-AHK], President Habre, and former Sudanese President Nimeiri, King Hussein, and Iraq's President Saddam Hussein. He has established terrorist training camps on Libyan soil, financed known terrorists, provided them weapons and documentation, and given terrorists safe-haven following their missions. This latter activity--the training and dispatching of terrorist goons--has the potential for becoming an even greater threat to international stability and order than does Qadhafi's purely military build-up which I mentioned earlier. This is basically for two reasons. First, with continued recruitment and training of terrorist operatives, Qadhafi can expand his "reach" to corners of the globe he could not otherwise hope to touch. Second, the terrorists he has trained now are training others. In this way, the evil that Qadhafi has brought into the world now is reproducing itself and spreading like a virus throughout Africa and the Arab World to Europe, the Americas, and East Asia. Unlike the build-up of military forces, the employment of terrorists is relatively cheap and quick. And, in the Middle East, it is not hard.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 it is not hard to recruit or train fanatics of many stripes to carry out terrorist acts. Furthermore, terrorist teams are small, highly mobile, hard to detect, and harder still to defend against. Qadhafi probably hopes that terrorist units can be employed to destabilize his enemies, particularly Egypt and Jordan, thereby precipitating a revolution or--at a minimum--weakening the military and security defenses of those countries. Qadhafi's goals in Western Europe and the Americas probably are somewhat less ambitious, but are nonetheless serious. By fomenting trouble, for example, in the island republics of the West Indies, Qadhafi probably hopes to divert the attention and resources of the U.S. and France away from the Middle East and Africa. Qadhafi's objectives in Africa are more obvious. By methods both crude and bold, Qadhafi seeks to make himself the paramount ruler on the continent. If Qadhafi had his way, both Western and Soviet influence in Africa would be eliminated and replaced by his own stark, narrow, ethnocentric views which blend socialism, a maverick version of Islam, and xenophobia. Tripoli would become, in effect, the political capital of Africa, and Qadhafi its prophet and master. Let me go back.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Let me go back for a moment and pick up on the Soviet thread in this Libyan tangle. I mentioned earlier that the Soviets are as puzzled as we are about some of Qadhafi's actions. And they are. And, I mentioned that--despite their well-placed qualms about Qadhafi's goals--they continue to sell him mountains of sophisticated weapons. And so they do. Why? (PAUSE) The Soviets look at Qadhafi through two sets of eyes. As veteran subversives themselves, they recognize in Qadhafi one of "their own." Qadhafi's activities are almost entirely directed against the democracies of Europe and the Americas, and their allies among the moderate states of Africa and the Middle East. These are the very same countries that the Soviets are seeking to weaken or destroy. If Qadhafi can do the work for them, so much the better. The icing on the cake, of course, is that--not only is Qadhafi actively aiding and promoting the Soviets' long-term strategy-- he is paying for the privilege! In hard currency, at that. W.C. Fields once.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 W.C. Fields once said "Never give a sucker an even break." The Soviets are no fools. But they recognize in Qadhafi a useful crackpot who repeatedly squanders billions of dollars of Libya's precious oil money on Soviet weapons, and then turns those weapons against the very countries that are targets of Soviet subversion. Why, indeed, should the Soviets give Qadhafi an even break? The Soviets should be grateful to Mr. Qadhafi. Were it not for Qadhafi's kind assistance, the Soviets would have to spend years building up legions of spies and fifth columnists in many countries, carry out the whole range of risky terrorist and subversive activities themselves, and then supply--at their own cost--the billions and billions of dollars' worth of weapons that have been channeled through Qadhafi's arsenals to other countries. Maybe Lenin was right when he talked of "useful idiots" who unwittingly serve the cause of the Bolshevik Revolution. Qadhafi certainly fits the description. But let me touch on one other thing before I close. Like war, fear makes strange bedfellows. Qadhafi's rapid military build-up, his political blustering over the air waves, and especially his wide-ranging bands of thugs and murderers is getting a lot of people worried. Not just on Pennsylvania Avenue. But in places like Algiers, Cairo, Tunis, Paris, Kinshasa, and Bonn. In short, if Qadhafi.... Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7 In short, if Qadhafi continues his current reckless path to power, more and more countries will come to recognize him for what he is--a major threat to peace in the Middle East. And, if he continues to bully and threaten, sooner or later his smaller and weaker neighbors will Join together to protect themselves from Qadhafi's depredations. Qadhafi, like Hitler, will last only so long as his many victims remain divided and fearful. Qadhafi has repeated Hitler's error of mistaking for weakness the restraint of moderate countries like Egypt. He looks cynically on international resolutions condemning him for aggression as being only so many scraps of paper. Could history repeat itself? Only time will tell. Approved For Release 2011/01/10: CIA-RDP88B00443R000502190001-7