AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 6, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6
SECRET
-Dissatification of Soviet Leadership Over Course of Events in
Afghanistan:
recently reported that a very senior 25X1
Soviet MFA official told his colleagues that he was very
pessimistic aoubt the trend of events in Afghanistan and that
Soviet casulaties wer high. He added that the Soviet advantage
in firepower was being eroded as the rebels became better
equipped. Another Soviet official indicated that 10,000-12,000
soldiers had been killed in Afghanistan. 25X1
intelligence indicates the Soviet military leadership is very
concerned about disciplinary and administrative problems with
the troops in Afghanistan.
-Soviet Aircraft Losses in Afghanistan:
We believe that as many as 300 Soviet helicopters have been
shot down in the past four years. Recent evidence suggests the
insurgents are becoming more effective in attacking Soviet
helicopters and that the Soviet military leadership is very
concerned over the increase in losses. In October 1983, for a
brief time, the Soviets indicated they were losing one
helicopter a day.
-Soviet POWs:
There are different estimates on the numbers of Soviet POWs
in insurgent hands. The State Department and we believe there
are 50 to 200 Soviet POWs, most of whom are enlisted men, ethnic
Muslims, deserters, misfits and generally people who can not be
exploited for FI or CA purposes. The Pentagon has information
from overt sources which indicate there are as many as 500
Soviet POWs, that many of them want to defect and that they have
significant FI/CA potential. The Pentagon also believes the
insurgents may soon murder all Soviet POWs but we consider these
reports spurious. recently came in with a 25X1
report indicating that there were 70 to 75 Soviet POWs in
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6
insurgent hands. We have participated in inter-agency meetings
to hammer out a secure exffiltration channel for Soviet POWs
which will meet Pakistani approval. Ambassador Derwinski heads
the inter-agency group.
-Insurgent Effectiveness:
In all provinces, the Soviets face increasingly better
armed insurgents who are more numerous and competent than in the
past. Civilian and insurgent morale remains high in spite of
heavy Soviet air and ground offensives in the Kabul area and
other cities. Over the course of the winter, highly effective
insurgent ambush teams have staged numerous operations against
convoys from the Soviet Union. These ambushes have compounded
Soviet problems created by severe weather and have aggravated
chronic shortages of supplies for Soviet and Afghan forces.
-Hunter-Killer Teams:
Insurgents are becoming more effective in the use of the
SA-7 surface-to-air missile. Hunter-killer teams, trained by
the Pakistanis, have downed several helicopters in the past few
months including two that carried high-ranking Soviet and Afghan
officers.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/03/26: CIA-RDP88B00443R000100210005-6